Thank you NFL.

You gave me exactly what I wanted.  You gave me the two best teams with the two best records, matched up in a game to decide the best team once and for all.  You gave me Hall of Fame level quarterbacks, and the potential for an old fashioned offensive knock-down drag out.

So often in these games we have such a huge disparity in team philosophies, that the clash on the field leaves us wanting in the end.  I don’t see that being the case in this one.  These teams both like to try to hit the end zone early and often and let their defense pressure the other team into fatal mistakes. 

The prevailing wisdom here is that the Colts are the superior team, and that Peyton Manning is in such a zone that regardless of what the Saints do, Manning will have them in the end.  And it is hard to argue with that.  The guy has guided his team to wins in the last two dozen games they actually tried to win.

To put away the Colts, the Saints will need to put away Peyton Manning.  The Saints put a beating on Brett Favre to get here and they will probably need to give Peyont Manning a similar beating to get over on the Colts.    

But when is the last time you saw Peyton Manning take a beating?  When is the last time you saw the Colts put the ball on the gound 6 times like the Vikings did against the Saints?  Could it happen?  Of course.  Likely?  Not.   

There is an element of this game though that gives me pause before throwing my full support behind the Colts.  There are definitely two distict cultures surrounding these two teams.  The Saints are from a party town, and that town has been partying and celebrating this magical season every step of the way.  The Colts have been more business-like, even casually discarding the quest for an undefeated season just to position themselves for this very game.  From what I can gather, the Colts have remained very “business-like” and focused through this two week hiatus.   I have heard some commentary questioning whether the Colts might come into this situation a bit too tightly wound.  

Because for the Colts, this game was the thing from the beginning of the season.  They have had their eye on the prize the whole way.  To the Saints, what has happened over the last 5 months has just been one big celebration every step of the way.  They have thoroughly enjoyed their journey to get to this point.  The Colts aren’t celebrating anything until Manning holds the trophy over his head.   The Colts have been a team on a mission.  The Saints have been a team of destiny.

I think this is one of the hardest games to predict in Superbowl history.   While my gut tells me that there is no way in hell Manning lets this one get away from him, he is facing a gunslinger that is every bit as capable of leading that game-winning scoring drive.  And those of you that think Freeney will be effective on a bum ankle at slowing down Brees will probably be sadly dissappointed.  Anybody that has had a bad high ankle sprain knows, it just ain’t happening after just two weeks.  He might take the field, but he won’t be creating havoc.   

Bottom line, I am rooting for a great game.  And I am pretty certain I am going to get one.  Neither of these teams has the “hammer” to put the other away.  I mean, seriously, if one team is ahead by two touchdowns at the end of the third quarter does anybody think the game is over at that point?  No way.  I could easily see this thing being a “last team with the ball wins” scenario.  And while the under/over is the highest ever for an NFL championship, we haven’t seen two prolific passing offenses like these matched up.  I think that 56 is pretty close but I would lean to the over despite the fact that these games usually go under. 

Only 4 of the last 15 Superbowl favorites have covered the spread.  And 6 of the last 8 underdogs have covered.  I think taking the points is the play.  Saints +5

I said going in that I was less sure about these playoffs than any I could remember. And then I hit 4-0 ATS right out of the gate. Maybe I should dress up in less confidence more often. I wear it well. But just like the teams in the tournament, last week means nothing. Onward we go.

Vegas cleaned up on the Cards/Packers game just as I predicted.  Vegas is in the money making business and though they aren’t always right, if the world is lining up against them on a certain game, did you ever notice that Vegas usually wins?   The books  needed the Cardinals to win that game.   The spread moved an astounding 6 points before kickoff.   Vegas had it right to begin with at Arizona -3.  It was the betting public that dragged it 6 points the other way.  Like a line of cattle marching to the slaughterhouse.  I could see it coming a mile away.  Here’s hoping I can use my futuristic binoculars to see the brand of the cattle marching to their death this week. 

Cardinals @ Saints (-7)    The Packers were one of the hottest teams in the tournament.   That is why everyone laid down their cash on them last week.  So here we are, with the team that outlasted them heading into the bees nest in ‘Nawlins.  I was singing the Cardinals tune last week and I wasn’t just talking.  It’s about Kurt Warner.  If he stays upright, it’s lights out.  I’m not betting against the guy in a playoff game.  I bet against Brady.  I’ll bet against Manning.  I’ll bet against Favre.  I’ll bet against Brees.  I might even bet against Philip Rivers if I was feeling particularly brave.   But I’m not betting against Warner.   Not against this defense. 

This one is a no brainer for me.  The Saints were “all that and a jar of cajun hot sauce” way back when my air conditioner was still a useful appliance.  But this is the team that got jacked up at home by the Buccaneers for Christmas.  And I am supposed to lay 7 points?  Uh, yeah.  Right.  I will be surprised if the Saints win this game outright let alone cover the lofty spread.  We saw last week the Cardinals ability to turn it up 2-3 notches in a big game.   That is a known.  The unknown is whether the Saints can knock off the rust and suddenly re-discover what they once had.  If you are laying 7 points on that hope,  (yes, you are HOPING) you have bigger cajones than me. 

The Saints have the ability to win this game, but they are no better right now than the Packers were last week, and probably not even as good.  Add in the decided disadvantage in the area of playoff experience  and it is hard to imagine where one gets the idea the Saints are the play this Saturday.   The Saints are on an 0-5 skid ATS, and the Cardinals are on a 5-0 run ATS in the playoffs.   Cardinals +7

Ravens @ Colts (-6.5)  This one is quite a bit tougher.  I really expect the Colts to win this game, but by how much is the big question.  Here is an interesting fact, the Colts for all their home success this season only won by more than 7 points 3 times.  And those games were against Seattle, Tennessee, and Denver.  No playoff teams in that bunch.  And when these teams met earlier in Baltimore it was a 17-15 Indy win.  And that really has been the Colts way this season.  They haven’t bludgeoned their opponents, they have simply done just enough to beat them.  This is not a great team.  Without Manning they would be watching these playoffs on TV.  But they have Manning, and he will probably do what he does to pull this game out for his average team.   But does that mean I should lay 6-7 points with the Colts? 

I fully realize that the Ravens played a perfect game last week in trouncing the Patriots, and they are unlikely to be able to duplicate that performance.  I would not be shocked if the Colts win this game by 10-14 points, but I also wouldn’t be surprised if it goes right down to the wire like it did in that earlier match-up.  The Colts are going to need to knock off the rust quickly in this game.  I look for them to test that suspect secondary early and often and attempt to knock the Ravens off their game-plan.  If they are not successful doing that, and they let the Ravens hang around,  I think the Colts could be in trouble in this game.   The Colts held the Ravens running game in check to some degree in the earlier match-up, but the Ravens run blocking has been bulldozing defenders the last few weeks, while the Colts have allowed 100 yard rushers in each of their last 3 games. 

So, bottom line for me is, I think the Colts will win, but there is also a real chance for an upset here.  Just in case you have forgotten, the Colts are 0-3 coming off a bye in the playoffs.  Taking the points seems the smart play against a Colts team I just don’t trust to cover the number.  Ravens +6.5  

Cowboys @ Vikings (-3)   Well. look what we have here.  The Choke-Bowl.  The Vikings, legendary all-time playoff chokers.   The Cowboys, until last week a decade and a half without a playoff win.  Good news.  Somebody has to win this one.  One of these two long-suffering franchises will be thrust into the NFC Championship game.  But which one?

I’m not going to give you any drama or suspense here.  I told you last week that my best guess was that the Cowboys were going to the Superbowl.  I saw nothing last week to change that opinion.   The Vikings had a nice season.   But if you could lay out these two teams performances on a graph like two different stocks, you wouldn’t be buying the Vikings stock. 

I know, the script is, Favre is supposed to lead his team to the Superbowl one more time, and go out in a blaze of glory, and they all lived happily ever after.  And if he was the quarterback of the Cowboys right now, that would be a real possibility.  Unfortunately he is the quarterback of the Vikings, and just like the Eagles last week, they can’t handle what the Cowboys are dishing out.   I think there is a real good chance that the Vikings get rolled in this game.  Since 1975 favorites of  3 points or less in this round of the playoffs are 7-13-1 ATS.    Cowboys +3

Jets @ Chargers (-7)  The earliest lines for this game were set at 9 1/2 points and money came pouring in on the Jets.  As of this writing  the spread is between 7-8 depending on where you look, and the Jets still seem to have some steam.   Now, the majority of you probably see a pattern in my plays this week.  It goes something like: underdog, underdog, underdog.  So of course I am on the Jets with the points in this game, yes?  Not so fast my friend.

I have a gut feeling that this could be the same scenario for Vegas as last week.  The last game of the weekend schedule is the one that the line has moved the most.  This is set up beautifully for the books again.  I can see it now.  The underdogs all cover the first three games, the people that were on the right side of those all plow their money into the dog one more time, and those that have been burned on the favorites for two weeks in a row, finally in desperation pin their hopes on the Jets.  By then the spread may have moved below 7.  Not real likely, but possible.

And the Jets do look like a good play in a lot of respects.  They are on a roll, inflicting their will on good teams three weeks in a row.  They have been a great road team this year.  As a matter of fact, they are on a 9-3 roll ATS on the road.   Why in the hell would I go against so much and take the favorite in this game?  Well, the fact is the Jets haven’t beaten any teams near as good as the Chargers on the road.  The Chargers are the one AFC team that has no “issues” coming into the tournament.  They kept their momentum, and actually peaked as the season ended.  They did not rest their starters.  They played to win games.

  I suspect the Jets may put up a good fight in this game.  They are going to try to beat the Chargers into submission.  But this now rested Chargers team should be up for the challenge.  Philip Rivers is at the absolute top of his game and no amount of blitzes is going to phase him.  The Jets may play with the same intensity and passion they did last week, but this team won’t be overwhelmed as easily as the Bengals were .  This is a classic case of too many people either forgetting or not knowing what the Chargers are about, while the freshness of the Jets domination over lesser and quitting teams has everybody gushing over this Cinderella.  The Chargers are the class of the AFC and they will show it in a game everybody expects to be close, but probably won’t be when it is all said and done.  Chargers -7  

I don’t recall ever being less sure about what will happen in the playoffs than I am this year. 

Going in, I view the Chargers and the Cowboys as the best teams from each conference.  But the problem is that I have zero faith in either of those team’s respective head coaches being able to navigate through the gauntlet.  So I give those two teams an unenthusiastic endorsement for an appearance in the big game.  But to be honest, no combination of teams that make it to the Superbowl will surprise me. 

Here is how I see the first round shaking out.

Jets @ Bengals (-2.5)  This sure looks like an easy pick.  The Bengals seemed to peak early and have been on the downhill slide.  Meanwhile the Jets had the audacity to present the Colts with a challenge in week 16, thus encouraging the Colts to pull the starters off the field and forego that foolish undefeated season business.  Then the Jets pulled a similar routine on the Bengals last week, and while the Bengals may have intended to go into that game to win, it became clear early on that they were not going to.   The Jets drove the starters off the field two straight weeks to close out the season, against playoff teams.  What does that mean?  That is the million dollar question.  The Jets have momentum to be sure.  But they also have a West Coast rookie quarterback, in his first playoff game on the road.  The rookie quarterback that has only recently experienced the horrors of a Northeast winter, and has been entirely uninspiring under those conditions.  

Bottom line, the Bengals are going to have to stiffen up in this game.  They have been lost on offense since the tragic death of Chris Henry, and while I feel they are the better team, they are not playing better right now.   This should be a low scoring game.  I am going to assume that the only way Sanchez will be put in a position to make a fatal error, is if the Bengals force the Jets into that situation.  And it is hard to imagine how the Bengals sleepy offense is suddenly going to wake up against this top rated defense that comes off shutting them out, and force the Jets into a passing game plan.  It seems too easy, but I am going with the road team with the points and praying I don’t see Sanchez drop back more than 10-15 times.  If he doesn’t throw the game away, I think the Jets miracle continues for one more week.  And even if the Bengals do manage to win, I would envision it being a last second field goal 17-16 type game.  Gimme the dawg!  Jets +2.5    

Eagles @ Cowboys (-4)  I have really tried talking myself out of this, but I just can’t do it.  The Cowboys lines have dominated the Eagles on both sides of the ball in both meetings.  This is a problem even Andy Reid can’t coach around.   As much as it would be fitting for the Cowboys to reach this point, where everybody is climbing on the bandwagon, and then lay a giant brown egg, I just don’t see it.  The Cowboys are rolling and they are healthy.  If they do not commit monumental stupidities they will win this game handily.  I really hate myself for this.  How many times have I been burned going down this road?  Countless.  What are the odds I get burned again.  Probably pretty good.  But I just can’t help myself.  My eyes don’t lie.  The iggles can’t handle what the Cowboys are dishing out.  Cowboys -4  

Ravens @ Patriots (-3.5)  This is a tough game to handicap, so I am going to make it simple.  I think these are two pretty even teams, but one has a superior head coach and starting quarterback.  It is hard to imagine the Pats losing a home playoff game.  That is something that Tom Brady just doesn’t experience.  That being said, with their present personnel (minus the magic-man Welker) I am going to assume that this Pats offense continues to struggle.  I look for another low scoring affair here, but I will take the Ravens with the points, because I think they might well find a way to win, or if not at least give the Pats all they can handle in an all or nothing.  Ravens +3.5

Packers @ Cardinals (-1)  The line for this game started at 3 and moved all the way down to 1.  It will probably continue to move.  After last weeks shellacking, the Cardinals find themselves in familiar territory.  Nobody believes in them.  Just like last year at this time when we were all joking about the Cardinals actually getting a home game by winning their division at 9-7.  Everybody thought the red-hot Falcons would come in and clean their clock.  Well, here we are again.  The Cardinals look downtrodden facing the red-hot Packers.  Deja vu’?  Possibly.

This Cardinals team has an on/off switch like no other.  I think what you saw last weekend was an illusion.  One that Ken Wisenhunt was all too happy to create.  This to me looks like the big gotcha game of the weekend.  Vegas is taking in a ton of Packers money.  And after the first three games of the weekend are passed, and all the gamblers are looking to parlay their winnings or recoup their losses, they will look to the Packers. 

I like the Packers.  I think Rodgers is one of the best quarterbacks in the league.  I think they have enough talent to go to the Superbowl.  But I figured out after two weeks last playoff season not to bet against Kurt Warner in a playoff game.  I think the Cardinals shock the world yet again,  and fill the Vegas coffers yet again.  When the Cardinals fail to cover the spread in a playoff game, I will stop playing them.  Until then  Arizona -1

You have to change.

If for no other reason than the NFL constantly changes, you have to keep up and re-evaluate how you approach this maddening little hobby of ours. I have played fantasy football for about 20 years now, co-founded and been lead analyst for The Huddle for 14 years and even wrote the best seller Fantasy Football: The Next Level and yet I have to change. The thrill and excitement – and frustration and heartache – are all about the dynamic nature of football and how often it can be unpredictable. In order to keep the odds in your favor, you need to change.

Like every season, I will incorporate what I have learned into my plans for 2010. I am sure we have all learned at least some lessons this year.

Resolution #1 – Grab the veteran half of a running back tandem

Look, no one loves a rookie running back more than me. In the past, there were always great values in picking up rookies and watching them flourish. And it almost never happens anymore. I had a great year with Joseph Addai on most of my teams – Donald Brown owners not so much. Short of Adrian Peterson in 2007, rookie running backs have been less than spectacular. Matt Forte did well last year thanks to being the only back on the roster when Benson left. But through the last five years, rookie runners have almost always disappointed and the veteran half of the tandem has usually been the better and cheaper draft pick. Sure, I will always end up with a rookie on my roster because they are like crack in fantasy football. But in a league that is becoming more about passing, the veterans are just more valuable.

Resolution #2 – Never pick up an early defense

It never fails. No matter what I do on defense, it always ends up a disappointment. This year was grabbing the Steelers who are apparently nothing more than Troy Polamalu and ten other guys who only wish they were Troy Polamalu. When he is out, the only thing the Pittsburgh defense can shut down is their own fantasy value. I’ll grab two decent defenses late and watch the waiver wire for whatever defense ends up to be the new version of 2009 Saints.

Resolution #3 – Snatch up every stud wide receiver possible
Short of taking Chris Johnson with the first overall pick, it is going to be hard to convince me that taking a low-risk, high-reward wide receiver is not the optimal draft pick in the first two rounds if not three. With so many committee backfields and the typical injuries and such, running backs do not offer the bang for the buck anymore. Starting out WR-WR-RB-RB is likely better than the old RB-RB-WR-WR. In a league with points for receptions, starting with a wide receiver should be your default draft strategy.

Resolution #4 – Never touch a backfield that uses more than two running backs

Sadly, it is almost impossible to find teams that do not regularly use two-man backfields but if any team regularly uses three or more – leave it alone if you can. This is mostly about the Patriots who prefer to use four different runners in a game but has spread to teams like the Raiders, Bills, Buccaneers, Eagles, Texans and Saints. It can happen when a primary starter is injured and no player steps up to take a big role but it is generally a wave of the future. You have to be able to rely on your running backs to get a significant share of the work for consistent fantasy points. This is getting hard to do and may seem to be in contrast to drafting wide receivers early instead of running backs. To the extent possible, look for complementary backs and not a backfield that has several backs of all the same size and basic talent. Take a cue from the NFL teams – if they won’t rely on one of their players for most of the work then they won’t benefit you either. Let other fantasy teams be the August optimists and play the waiting game to see if anyone steps up to take a majority of the work.

Resolution #5 – Play in fewer leagues and yet be more involved

Sure, doing all the homework makes it tempting to keep adding new leagues but at some point it becomes a chore to manage them all. Fantasy football should be about competition and camaraderie, not checking eleven rosters to see which ones have the Sunday surprise inactive player. Be more involved with fellow team owners if only to talk smack with them and give your head-to-head matchup a little more flavor. Congratulate the guys that beat you and make fun of the ones that don’t. Get to know your league mates and your league better. Make fantasy football about fun, not a weekly statistical exercise. For a local league, make the draft an even bigger event this year.

Each season shows just how dynamic the NFL is and keeping up with those trends and changes is a big part of the enjoyment of fantasy football. Keep changing with the times and above all else – have more fun with your league in 2010!