No professional sports league does a better job of keeping itself in the spotlight than the NFL.

Even during the six months of down time when nary a game is played, the NFL claims a spot above the fold on your sports page or leading the scroll across your television. Free agency, the draft, minicamps… even a mundane task such as letting you know when teams will play each other (we’ve known the “who” since the end of the season) gets national coverage.

And in between the league’s staged events, the littlest stories of the offseason receive just as much scrutiny. The Brett Favre saga has become the Paris Hilton of the NFL: there’s nothing there, and yet we must have full coverage of every step.

Not that I’m complaining. The NBA lost me long ago (shortly after Dr. J retired), the NHL is good for a couple triple-overtime games each playoffs but without the Wild I don’t have a horse in the race, and 20-plus years of fantasy baseball have proven to me that I’m much more of a Twins fan than a baseball fan.

Hey, what else are we going to do, watch NBA or NHL playoffs or the first couple months of the interminable baseball season?

And yet there will be a few little nuggets, mere mentions in passing during minicamp recaps, that at the end of the season some will look back at and point to as a sign they should have seen (insert fantasy tragedy here) coming. With that in mind, here are a couple of those tidbits I’ve noticed that might help both you and I avoid those “woulda-coulda-shoulda” blues.

Colts Coaching Changes
Who woulda thunk the NFL’s pension plan could play a role in the demise of one of fantasy football’s most reliable offenses? I don’t pretend to understand what exactly the league is trying to pull with its recent changes to the league pension plan; what I do know is that long-time Colts offensive coordinator Tom Moore and fellow veteran Howard Mudd, Indy’s offensive line coach, have been put in a position where if they don’t retire before June the rule changes will take a bite out of their pension plans to the tune of hundreds of thousands of dollars. As it stands at this writing, Mudd has announced his retirement and Moore is contemplating his. Mix in the transition from Tony Dungy to Jim Caldwell at the helm and that’s a whole lot of newness in Indianapolis.

Sure, Peyton Manning will still be calling the plays. But sans Moore there’s bound to be a fluctuation in the comfort level between Peyton and whomever is talking into his ear. Who could they bring in that a) knows this offense as well as Manning and Moore, b) has the cajones to tell Manning anything, and c) can convince Manning he’s worth listening to? A little wrinkle wouldn’t be all bad, but wholesale changes make me less confident that this offense will continue to match its storied output. Worse, Mudd has been crafting a protective wall around Manning out of second-day draft picks and street free agents; if he goes, what happens to Indy’s front line? Again, I’m not saying Pete Metzelaars can’t do the job, but it’s one more tweak to the stability of a unit fantasy folks have come to rely upon.

Neither coach has submitted their papers yet, so there’s a possibility this won’t become an issue. But at minimum it’s a reason not to doze off when the topic in the sports page turns to pension plans, at least where the NFL is concerned.

The Draft’s Big Winner
The NFL Draft is becoming bigger and bigger every year; next year, there’s a very good possibility the first round will be held in prime time on Thursday night—must see TV for every football fan. And when it comes to fantasy football, everyone at your drauction will know who Matt Stafford and Michael Crabtree and Knowshon Moreno are. The more astute will know names like James Davis, Austin Collie, and Shawn Nelson and how they may factor into the 2009 fantasy season.

But unless you’re a true football junkie—and I have to assume if you’re reading this in May you fit that description—you may not be aware that the biggest winner on draft day wasn’t Darrius Heyward-Bey or Brandon Pettigrew or even Donald Brown. Nope, that distinction has to fall to Jacksonville running back Maurice Jones-Drew. Not only does he no longer have Fred Taylor to siphon carries, MoJo was rewarded with a fat contract in the offseason. Then, to protect that investment, the Jaguars added not one but two of the top five offensive tackles in the 2009 draft class: first-rounder Eugene Monroe, who should start ahead of the shell of Tra Thomas on the left side, and second-rounder Eben Britton, likely to leapfrog Tony Pashos at right tackle.

Spending two early picks on the front line signifies Jacksonville’s commitment to the running game, and sans Taylor MoJo should see the bulk of the touches—though Greg Jones and another 2009 draftee, seventh-rounder Rashad Jennings, are around to make sure he’s not overworked. And another sign the Jags are still all about running the football: Troy Williamson is still on their roster. If there were to be any aerial fireworks, the Jags could have easily drafted Michael Crabtree rather than Monroe; instead, they signed what’s left of Torry Holt to provide some semblance of a passing game—but it’s abundantly clear that won’t be the priority.

MoJo’s fantasy stock jumped the day Taylor was released, but it’s apparently cooled a bit since then. However, the addition of a couple big helpers on the front line have me penciling Jones-Drew into the top three in the first draft of my rankings. Let someone else have whatever share of the carries Moreno and Brown and Beanie Wells will get; I’ll roll with the already proven productivity of a guy whose team thought enough of him to put two stud linemen in front of him.

Mock Draft 3.0 might require a companion piece.

After all, any mock draft in which the top-ranked running back—one who has drawn at least some comparisons to Adrian Peterson—doesn’t appear in the first round demands a little additional explanation.

It’s not that I don’t like Beanie Wells; in fact, I’m the one who sees similarities between Wells and the Vikings’ All-Pro runner.

Both are bigger than your average feature back, yet have enough speed to hit holes quickly and leave defenders in their wake. Both enter the league with tons of potential, as well as question marks about their durability. And both are likely to be see their draft stock slide to a position lower than their talent would suggest.

But all the way out of the first round entirely?

Actually, I don’t feel quite as queasy about Wells not appearing in the first round after checking the mock draft avid members of The Huddle forums are conducting. In that mock, Wells goes 31st overall to the Cardinals—in other words, just two picks shy of tumbling out of the first round.

Truth be told, I don’t know that anyone would be all that surprised if Wells went to the Browns with the fifth overall selection. The team needs a future beyond Jamal Lewis, Wells would come with a built-in local fan club from his days at Ohio State and Garfield High, and Eric Mangini’s best days with the Jets featured a run-heavy offense.

However, as you might expect from a club that fired its coach and GM and is picking near the top of the draft, the Browns have other needs as well. Mock Draft 3.0 has them taking DE/OLB Brian Orakpo, though if Wake Forest LB Aaron Curry falls to 5 you’d see Mangini sprint to the podium to get the pick in.

The Browns have traded back into the first round in the past—to get Brady Quinn just a couple years back—though that was under a previous administration. Nonetheless, if Wells is hanging around in the late 20s it wouldn’t be prohibitive for the Browns to move up from 36.

Or maybe the Browns’ draft board looks like mine, and they wouldn’t have to move that far.

Ultimately, the range for Wells’ selection is anywhere from 5th to 36th, with a very strong possibility that if he’s trending towards the lower end of that scale at least a couple teams will inquire about trading back up to acquire him. And if he does slip out of the first round entirely, you can bet he’ll bring not only considerable athletic prowess but also a Shaun Rogers-sized chip on his shoulder to his NFL career.

The Steelers are really making me mad.

It’s not the six Super Bowl titles. While it’s certainly easy to hate a front-runner, I don’t begrudge the Steelers their crowns. Certainly I’m jealous, and as a Vikings fan I have painful memories of the beatdown the original Steel Curtain gave to my squad 30-some years ago. But that’s not what has me steaming.

Here’s my issue with the current Steelers squad: they won a championship with a shaky offensive line. And in the copycat world that is the NFL, now teams seem to be taking their O-line for granted.

Like my beloved Vikings.

Yes, I’m blaming the Steelers for the fact that the Vikings have thus far not only failed to address the substandard right side of their offensive line but also created the very real possibility that they’re about to let six-time Pro Bowl center Matt Birk leave town as well.

This wouldn’t have happened if the 145 sacks the Steelers have allowed over the past three seasons had taken their toll. Instead, Pittsburgh lets All Pro guard Alan Faneca walk, allows Ben Roethlisberger (and Byron Leftwich) to be beaten and battered to the tune of a second 49-sack season in the past three years, gives up a safety thanks to a holding penalty in the end zone… and still wins the Super Bowl.

What do NFL teams bent on copying success learn from this? Unfortunately for my Vikings, it appears they think that Sage Rosenfels can stand up to similar abuse, or Adrian Peterson can create his own holes, or the Vikings defense is similar enough to the current iteration of the Steel Curtain that they can keep rolling mediocrity or worse into the lineup and expect success.

This is a bitter pill to swallow for a guy who firmly believes that it all starts up front.

But I’m not quite ready to abandon this tenet just yet. After all, eight offensive tackles went in the first round last season, including Jake Long first overall, so there are teams that still value linemen—playoff teams, too, as the Dolphins, Falcons, and Panthers all grabbed a fat guy in the first round.

Yes, they all were one and done. And yes, the Lions used a first-round pick on a tackle and went 0-16. Still, I remain undeterred.

If the Vikings are to take advantage of their current window of opportunity and make a run at ending their Super Bowl futility, it’ll take more than Sage Rosenfels. And it will certainly take more than John Sullivan, Anthony Herrera, and Ryan Cook—the current depth chart leaders at center, right guard, and right tackle in Minnesota.

Maybe Brad Childress will find a place in the Vikings locker room for a Man of the Year finalist and, oh yeah, a pretty doggone good center who still has a year or two left in the tank and is unquestionably better than any other option the Vikings could plug in. And maybe the Vikings brain trust (oxymoron?) will spend that first pick on one of the talented offensive tackles who should still be on the board when the 22nd pick rolls around.

There’s a fantasy element to this as well; there always is, you know that. Adrian Peterson is at present the consensus first overall fantasy pick. But what if the Vikings jettison Birk and ask an untested second-year player to make line calls and set blocking schemes while the at-best adequate Herrera and overmatched Cook attempt to create holes on what should be the strong side of the Minnesota offense? How confident are you now that Peterson carves out another 1,700 yards and 10 touchdowns?

I’m not. Not at all. And that’s why I’m mad at the Steelers. It’s their fault for winning a Super Bowl with an offensive line that suggests to the rest of the league that you can roll five fat guys out there and come home with the Lombardi Trophy.

I guess maybe that’s true—if you also have Ben Roethlisberger and Troy Polamalu. But Sage Rosenfels and Tyrell Johnson… well, they’re no Ben Roethlisberger and Troy Polamalu.

It’s ironic, or at least a very compelling coincidence, that on the same weekend San Diego punter Mike Scifres almost single-handedly (single-footedly?) wins a playoff game for his team the Hall of Fame voters once again demonstrate their ignorance and/or apathy by failing to make Ray Guy a finalist for Canton.

I’m certainly no Raiders apologist. My childhood memories of the Silver and Black are of Jack Tatum demolishing Sammie White (you know, the vintage Super Bowl clip of a receiver going across the middle and being separated from the ball, his helmet, and his very will to live) and the Raiders dismantling my beloved Vikings in Super Bowl XI. So as a Purple fan it’s a tight fit to squeeze Guy into Canton when I’m already stumping for Randall McDaniel (nine consecutive All-Pro teams and a dozen straight Pro Bowls; do you really even need to think about it?) and Cris Carter (second all-time in receptions and receiving touchdowns; how did he not get in last year?) and even John Randle in a potential HOF class that’s loaded with talent.

But Guy’s contributions to the game of football transcend team loyalty and even any misguided notions that a punter isn’t really a football player. Those still clinging to that belief should be forced to watch the Chargers-Colts playoff game on a spool until they willingly acknowledge the importance of field position and just how much a punter can impact a game.

Guy played before Sunday Ticket, and yet his impact can still be felt on Madden 09. After all, before Ray Guy there wasn’t such a thing as “hang time.” Guy didn’t necessarily invent it, but he was to hang time what Dr. J was to the dunk. Am I dating myself? How about replacing Doc with Michael Jordan for you kids out there; the comparison still holds.

Because they don’t show clips of Guy punting like they do of, say, Gale Sayers in the open field or Dan Fouts throwing deep, here’s all you need to know about the air Guy put under the ball. In the 1976 Pro Bowl, played in New Orleans, Guy hit the scoreboard that hung over the field at the Superdome; groundskeepers were forced to raise it for Super Bowl XV after Guy drilled it four consecutive times to demonstrate the necessity of the move. Guy put the ball in the air so long that finally they had to slap a stopwatch on it. Now every time a punter kicks, be it on TV or on your video console, you know just how long that ball stayed in the air; that’s because of Ray Guy.

Another stat invented to track just how Guy dominated was the “inside the 20” stat that’s relatively commonplace these days. After three years of Guy pinning opponents deep in their own territory the league started tracking the “inside the 20” stat, and over the next 11 14-game seasons Guy recorded 209.

While 30 years of improvement in everything from the ball to the shoes to the punters might make Guy’s 42.3 career yards-per-punt average look ordinary, in his era it was anything but. But just for kicks, here are a couple stats that stand the test of time: only three of Guy’s 1,049 career punts (a miniscule 0.28%) were blocked, and he closed his career with almost 600 consecutive block-free punt attempts; Also, not a single one of Guy’s 1,049 punts were returned for a touchdown.

Evidently, however, the voters must feel that punters aren’t sexy—yet former commissioner Paul Tagliabue and Bills owner Ralph Wilson, both counted among the 17 finalists, are. So Guy is forced spend another year buying a ticket to Canton when he should already be sporting a yellow jacket. Sure, maybe that opens a spot for Carter or McDaniel or even Randle. And I’d hate to be charged with the task of picking which finalist Guy would replace—assuming some arcane by-law demands they recognize non-playing contributors like Tags and Wilson (I have to ask; will he go in wearing a Blue Jay cap?).

But if the Hall truly seeks to honor “the finest the game has produced,” as it declares on its website, they’d better find a way to include the guy who redefined a punter’s role in the game.

And they’d better put his bust in an area with a vaulted ceiling; you know, just in case.

As those of us whose best-laid draft-day plans have been shattered over the past couple of playoff weekends firmly believe, there’s always next year. And a group of us, brought together by my good friend Rick Perkins over at Fantasy Football Trader, took that belief to the next level last Tuesday, conducting the first of what is sure to be many 2009 mock fantasy drafts.

Though obviously much will change over the next eight months, I found this to be an incredibly useful exercise. Working off the keeper cheat sheet David Dorey and I created the previous week, I found some widely varied opinions on players—and a whole lot that stayed pretty close to form. Best of all, the first eight rounds produced just three names that didn’t crack our first stab at a 2009 cheat sheet; for the record, they are Edgerrin James, Rashard Mendenhall, and Nate Burleson.

What else can be gleaned from this first draft? Here are a few thoughts that will be percolating in my head as the seeds of a 2009 strategy are planted.

• Running backs are deep, maybe more so than any season in recent memory. Clinton Portis, Frank Gore, Chris Johnson, and Steve Slaton were all second-rounders; Thomas Jones and Maurice Jones-Drew lasted into round three. And there are plenty of decent sleepers in the middle rounds as well: Kevin Smith in round five, Darren McFadden in round six, Cadillac Williams and Le’Ron McClain in round seven, and Pierre Thomas and Cedric Benson in round eight, to name a few.

• Round three is shaping up to be the receiver round. Four wideouts—Larry Fitzgerald, Andre Johnson, Randy Moss, and Calvin Johnson—went off the board in round two and eight WRs—Anquan Boldin, Steve Smith, Terrell Owens, Reggie Wayne, Roddy White, Brandon Marshall, Greg Jennings, and Marques Colston—all went in round three. Only two receivers I had in the top tier, Dwayne Bowe and Wes Welker, lasted until round four. And after that things got very interesting, with folks taking all kinds of wild swings at who’ll be the next sleeper wideout.

• There’s no hurry to get a quarterback. Drew Brees was a surprise second overall selection (WCOFF scoring system), and only Tony Romo and Peyton Manning went in the next two rounds. I waited until early in round eight to start hoarding signal callers and landed Philip Rivers at 8-2, Eli Manning at 9-11, and Joe Flacco at 13-11.

• Jason Witten has officially usurped Antonio Gates as the top tight end, going off the board two rounds before any other tight end. Actually, Tony Gonzalez and Kellen Winslow were the next two tight ends off the board towards the end of round six; Gates and Dallas Clark lasted until round seven.

• There’s always one in every crowd: the Giants defense went with the first pick in the ninth round, and it was three rounds before another defense was selected. Kickers were a little more reasonable, with Nick Folk and Mason Crosby going in round 15, four more going in round 16, and the rest in the final 14 picks of the draft.

Based at least a little bit on these results, expect some updates to the keeper cheat sheets later this week.

I haven’t felt like this on a Tuesday since December 19, 1995.

Don’t get me wrong, I’ve lost my share of fantasy games on Monday night. Won my share, too. I fully realize that what comes around goes around.

This one, though… ouch.

To set the stage, let’s go back 13 years to a Monday night at Candlestick. The 49ers were hosting the Vikings, and I had a small lead and Cris Carter heading into the game.

My opponent had Jerry Rice.

Fourteen catches, 289 yards, and three touchdowns later I was regretting my decision to meet up with the commissioner of the league and my opponent at a local watering hole. It would have been a whole lot less expensive just raiding my own liquor cabinet.

Suffice it to say that despite twelve catches, 88 yards and two touchdowns from Carter I was eliminated from that particular fantasy league’s playoffs. And I got to stand there and take it like a man from the Rice owner who vanquished me, rather than suffer in the comforts of my own living room.

Which brings us back to the events of last night. Vegas had the O/U in the mid-30s, indicative of a low-scoring affair. The Bucs and Panthers both brought solid defenses into the game. And I had three playoff games brewing.

One was admittedly a longshot; I had Jake Delhomme, Steve Smith, and John Kasay going but significant ground to make up in a basic scoring league (yes, they still exist). The other two I felt pretty good about, including Delhomme and a 10-point lead against Jeff Garcia and Karney. The other… well, let’s save that for last.

I wasn’t expecting much from the first team, but the 38-yard touchdown toss to Smith teased me just enough to get my hopes rising. Obviously, once the Panthers figured out they could run at will there was next to no shot of Delhomme hitting Smith again, so that game within a game returned to the backburner.

The Panthers’ lead, however, also forced Garcia to start throwing. And throwing. And throwing. There was a point midway through the fourth quarter where I was at least still tied, and since this league takes away a point for an interception there was still a chance. Instead, Garcia threw a touchdown—you know, one of those meaningless scores that does nothing to the outcome of the real game but means everything to fantasy folks—to send another 2V team to an early summer.

And last, but most certainly not least, was my juggernaut helmed by Drew Brees and riding the Tennessee Titans backfield to a #2 seed. Even the defense chipped in, with the Steelers’ pick-six of Tony Romo giving me an eight point lead and a little bit of confidence heading into Monday night. After all, hadn’t the Bucs held DeAngelo Williams to 27 yards in the previous meeting?

You know the rest.

After Jonathan Stewart pilfered a pair of scores I thought I might actually dodge this bullet. I could absorb a 100-yard game so long as Williams didn’t score, and the way he was piling up yardage Tampa would have to keep him out of the end zone for me to pull out the win. Instead, midway through the fourth quarter came the dagger to my heart as Williams gouged a flagging Bucs defense for the touchdown that ended my run.

An industry friend of mind is convinced he could put out a call for “bad beats” and receive enough to fill a book. And truth be told this isn’t even really a bad beat; I can think of two I suffered this season alone that better fit the category. And I know of a buddy who had a 40-point lead entering last night and got caught by Williams and Antonio Bryant. But that doesn’t mean it was any easier to look at that scoreboard this morning.

Still, there’s all kinds of bright side. For starters, I’m still playing fantasy football 13 years later and nothing has quite stuck in my craw in that intervening run. I certainly wouldn’t complain if I can go another 13 years in this game without taking another heart punch like that. And I still have one more team that avoided the DeAngelo kick to the store… and next Monday night I’ll be the one holding Donovan McNabb in reserve, ready to break a heart.

Hopefully it won’t be mine.

Is it my coaching?

Fantasy playoff time is almost upon us, and I’ve winnowed down my 10 teams (at least five too many to manage effectively) to six still in the hunt.

Only one was a complete and utter failure, thanks to first- and second-round picks spent on LaDainian Tomlinson and Marques Colston; in true Minnesota Vikings fashion, three teams managed to miss the playoffs by one game—or in one case, was leapfrogged for the final spot despite a better record because that spot was awarded to the team with the most total points.

Don’t get me wrong, I’m not complaining. As a team that won at least one game during the course of the season by less than half a point I’ve been on both sides of the Karma sword. Play fantasy football long enough and you’ll accrue a bad beat; maybe not one where the fates conspire for Drew Brees to throw an eight-yard pass (not a seven-yard pass, an eight-yard pass to reach the 250-yard mark exactly and pick up a bonus point), at which point Nate Kaeding trots on to kick a meaningless field goal that gives your opponent two more points and turns a two-point win into a one point loss… whew. But I’m sure you have your own story.

And again, let me stress: I’m not bitter.

Three of my other teams are in, another one has all but clinched, and the other needs a win this week. So don’t worry about me; I’ll be plenty busy over the next month.

Anywho, perhaps the most interesting of my clubs is the team I assembled as part of the Huddle BestBall Industry Auction. And there isn’t even a playoff (or a payoff) involved.

This was a 12-team auction held at Fantasy Auctioneer that included representatives from USA Today, RotoWire, Pro Football Weekly, LeagueSafe, Fantasy Sports Group, Game Time Decisions, CREATiVE Sports, FF Indepth, and Masters Fantasy Football Leagues as well as Fantasy Auctioneer and The Huddle (me). The 12th spot went to a Huddler representing the Huddle forums (hey, BeeR).

If you’re not familiar with BestBall, what it means is you don’t need to make any transactions or lineup decisions; you draft your team (or in this case, auction to acquire your team), and then each week the computer retroactively sets your lineup based on the best performers at each position.

In other words, each week you field the best possible lineup your roster affords.

And each week you play every other team, so if you’re the high score of the week you’d be 11-0 that week.

So in this league where I don’t have to do any coaching, I am running away with the title. My 118-23-2 record, or .832 winning percentage, roughly equates to an 11-2 mark.

Fantasy Sports Group is next at 111-32 (.776), or roughly 10-3. Okay, so I’m not running away with the title. But we’ve certainly separated from the group, as League Safe’s 93-46-4 (.664) mark in third place equates to roughly 8-4-1.

And all you Huddlers should be proud of BeeR, who represented well with a 79-59-5 (.570, or 7-5-1) that’s good for fourth place. Go ahead, pop that Huddle t-shirt!

I plan on spending a bit more time in the offseason analyzing what went right with this club, specifically what positions lend themselves well to in-season pickups—because in this league, those players are still free agents. The Undrafted All Stars would include Matt Cassell, Mewelde Moore, Derrick Ward, Lance Moore, Antonio Bryant, John Carlson, John Carney (the top two kickers in this typical scoring system, Carney and Bryant, both went undrafted; that is why you don’t draft a kicker until the final round), and the Jets D/ST.

But while the success of this squad was nice, it also got me to thinking: does this mean I’m great at acquiring talent through the auction (all three of my auction teams are playoff bound), or does it mean I’m not so hot at drafting and/or in-season roster and lineup management? Again, there will be more analysis once the dust has settled on the teams still fighting for hardware.

For the record, here’s my dominant squad from the Huddle BestBall Industry Auction League:

QB – Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers
RB – Chris Johnson, Felix Jones, Jonathan Stewart (love me those rookie running backs), Michael Turner, LenDale White
WR – Braylon Edwards (funny, he killed me in every other league I had him), Anthony Gonzalez, Robert Meachem, Roddy White
TE – Zach Miller, L.J. Smith
K – Stephen Gostkowski, Josh Scobee
DEF – Jacksonville Jaguars, Seattle Seahawks

Truth in disclosure: I am a Randy Moss owner.

For better or for worse, I traded Steve Smith to acquire Moss in the second week of the season. I had my reasons, one of the biggies being that sans Smith (halfway through his two-week suspension) I was wafer-thin at wide receiver and already had an “L” to my credit.

I also thought I had seen enough from Matt Cassel in Week 1 to believe he could throw it up for Moss and let him maintain at least most of his fantasy value.

After all, as we’ve seen from Dan Orlovsky, it really doesn’t take much to throw the ball up and let your talented, athletic receiver go get it.

At minimum I figured Smith-for-Moss was a low-risk, high-reward deal. I got the immediate Week 2 help I needed (though as it turned out Moss’s two catch, 22-yard effort was barely more than the goose-egg Smith posted), and in my opinion a worst-case scenario was a dozen touchdowns and a steady dose of 70-80 yard games. The Panthers, meanwhile, were poised to become a run-first squad which would cut into Smith’s numbers.

And, of course, I assumed that most quarterbacks competent enough to earn an NFL roster spot could throw the jump ball every now and again. Case in point: Kerry Collins with the 2005 Raiders, when Moss barely feigned interest and still put up 1,005 yards and eight touchdowns.

And to be fair this deal hasn’t been the abomination it sometimes feels like—as it did again last night while I suffered through Moss very nearly hanging a two-catch, 10-yard game on the board. In the league in which I made the deal, Moss and Smith had the exact same number of points through Week 10—though obviously Smith has compiled those numbers in one fewer game.

So unless Steve can somehow manage a touchdown and 22 yards against the Lions, it’s actually worked out to my advantage.

Yeah, that’s sarcasm.

And despite 400 yards from Cassel, last night’s game did little to make me feel a whole lot better heading into the playoff stretch.

An aside: is there such a thing as a quiet 400 yards? I was thoroughly underwhelmed by last night’s Cassel vs. Brett Favre battle. As stated on With Leather, one of my favorite daily reads, “it was the most boring division rivalry overtime game to determine first place played in primetime, ever.”

Here’s what’s really scary: I searched the official play-by-play to confirm what I was watching, and there were a total of 11 deep balls thrown in the game (and the league’s definition of “deep” is pretty generous; both the 16-yard touchdown to Moss at the end of the game and the earlier 19-yard touchdown to Jabar Gaffney were credited as “deep”). By the way, those were Cassel’s only two completions on “deep” balls; he threw three deep incompletes to tight end Ben Watson, one to Gaffney, and four to Moss.

And it’s worth noting that The Gunslinger threw all of one deep ball on the evening, the 46-yard completion to Jerricho Cotchery.

What was my point again? Oh yeah, Moss. So how is it even possible for Cassel to throw 50 passes for 400 yards… and Moss to finish with three catches for 26 yards?

It’s possible because Cassel can’t complete a deep ball to save his life.

And no, I’m not just referring to the play where Moss was wide open down the left sideline and Cassel overthrew him. The replay clearly showed that Moss stumbled coming out of his break and there’s a possibility the ball would have been right about where Moss should have been had he kept his footing.

However, the anecdotal evidence of the previous two and a half months suggests that Cassel’s deep ball has all the accuracy of Standard & Poor’s securites ratings.

There are plenty of NFL offenses that don’t require downfield success; the entire premise of the West Coast offense is the short pass, getting the ball in the hands of your receivers while they’re on the move—almost like an extended handoff. And we’ll likely see one of those teams make Cassel a candidate to be the next Scott Mitchell with an oversized contract in the offseason.

But that’s a few months down the road. I’ve written off Cassel completing any more bombs to Moss—who last year had six touchdown catches of 40 yards or more; anything longer than 25 yards will be pure gravy. However, I do need Matt to remember that Moss can still get open in the end zone—as suggested by his six touchdowns from inside the five last year… and five more from inside the 10… and four more from 20 yards and in.

Maybe Moss’s clutch catch will help jog Cassel’s memory. Because I sure would like Moss to give me a little more than 26 yards a game the rest of the way.

Seven weeks into the NFL season, you’d think we’d have a pretty good feel for the contenders and the pretenders.

Tell that to anyone who thought the Week 6 Colts or Saints or Chargers or Browns would be showing up in Week 7. Or anyone who wrote off the Giants, Patriots or Panthers after subpar Week 6 performances.

Is a little consistency too much to ask for?

Over the past three weeks, 22 of the league’s 32 teams have either lost a game they were expected to win or won a game they were expected to lose; five have done so twice, while three have managed to both exceed and fail to deliver on expectations in that time frame.

Sigh.

The 10 predictable teams include the Bengals, Lions, Chiefs, and 49ers—teams who play down to lowly expectations on a regular basis. Other bastions of consistency include the Broncos, whose Monday night egg against the Patriots wasn’t quite what fantasy owners were expecting from Jay Cutler & Co. Speaking of the Pats, didn’t Philip Rivers and the Chargers expose them as ordinary just one week earlier?

That leaves the Texans—who were five minutes away from joining the “upset special” club until Sage Rosenfels fumbled away a win against Indy—and three teams with similar styles: the Panthers, Bucs, and Titans. All play extremely good defense, and all use a two-pronged backfield to run the ball effectively.

That’s not exactly what fantasy owners want to hear—unless you’re fortunate enough to be holding both the Titans, Panthers, or Bucs backs on the same squad.

What does this mean going forward? Uncertainty, unfortunately. Just when you think the game has changed to the point where matchups are king and the “Never Bench Your Stud” theory no longer applies… Peyton Manning throws three touchdowns against the Ravens and Steven Jackson rushes for 160 and three against the Cowboys. So you roll with Drew Brees and Frank Gore despite tougher opposition—only to see them outperformed by matchup plays like Jeff Garcia and Mewelde Moore.

Sigh.

Maybe the solution is to go out and acquire a bankable backfield like Graham and Dunn or Stewart and Williams (odds are the asking price on Johnson and White is a little steep coming off their Week 7 performances). Better still, you could load your roster with matchups against the teams who don’t disappoint in their disappointing performances. It’s worth noting that both the Colts and Dolphins face two of the four consistent doormats during the fantasy playoffs.

That assumes, of course, that the dregs remain the dregs. And this season, that’s hardly a given.

Not surprisingly, between the comments section and my email box I hear plenty of questions about the rankings that make up the Rest of the Year Cheat Sheet. As I’ve discussed earlier in this blog, it’s a subjective process that’s part looking back (since the best predictor of future behavior is past performance) and part looking forward (because I have yet to find a fantasy league that awards you points in Week 7 for what a player has done in Weeks 1 through 6).

And it’s far from perfect; if it was perfect, it wouldn’t need to be updated on a week to week basis because I would have nailed the rest of the way rankings back in Week 1. Unfortunately, my crystal ball must have been foggy back then because in some cases it failed to forecast the injuries, the whims of coaches, the improving and regressing offenses and defenses… basically, the reasons there’s a weekly update.

First, maybe a little background information is in order. To compile the rankings each week I sit down with the previous week’s rankings on Monday, while the weekend’s action is still fresh on my brain. I’ll put up and down arrows next to guys who played well (or poorly), then write in those who had a productive week but didn’t appear on the list previously—and cross out those who may have suffered a serious injury. Then on Tuesday morning (so as to include the Monday night game) I’ll go into the spreadsheet and start grouping guys based on how much confidence I have in them to consistently produce in my starting lineup. From there I’ll reorder players within each group, trying to use as the deciding factor this question: given an equal matchup, which player would I rather have in my fantasy lineup each week the rest of the way?

With that in mind, here are some answers to the more relevant questions regarding the process, the rankings themselves, and other fantasy football matters. All letters are printed verbatim.

Dwayne Bowe went from 24th in wk 4 to 9th in wk 5 and back to 21st in wk 6. I’m curious as to the factors you used to give him stud status for the one week.
—Beau

Bowe climbed in part because it looked as if he would be the only consistent producer on a team that was playing from behind on a regular basis; he also climbed in part because it looked as if Damon Huard would provide at least competent quarterbacking for the Chiefs. And his ranking rose in part because guys previously ranked above him proved that they were less worthy of being trusted with a regular starting spot in your fantasy lineup. When the Chiefs went back to Tyler Thigpen and other receivers started producing, Bowe’s status dropped again. The volatility of the KC situation suggests that the rest of the way he’ll be a serviceable WR2, but it’s hard to see him cracking the top 10 again.

Does Benson have a chance of being of any fantasy value? Can he take over the starting duties in Cincy?
—Tom

Chris Perry leads the NFL with five fumbles, and the Bengals can ill-afford to squander possessions so a move to Benson wouldn’t surprise at all. At this stage 2008 is looking like a lost season for Cincy, so if they want to see what they’ll have to work with going forward they’ll want to take a longer look at everyone on their roster. However, it’s tough to see Benson as anything more than a bye-week plug-in when Cincy has a favorable matchup—and there are precious few of them left on the schedule.

Westbrook still 4th RB even with 2 broken Ribs ? So if your in a draft say today your taking Westbrook 4th with 2 Broken Ribs ?
—Huh

Brian Westbrook is, in my opinion, the best back in fantasy football… when healthy. When those rankings were compiled (Tuesday), he had just played through the two broken ribs—leading me to believe that he could and would continue to do so. If I’m drafting today I’d absolutely take Westy in the first round—and I’d likely follow that up with Buckhalter in the fifth, maybe earlier.

Why no love for Julius Jones?
—Mystics

The return of Maurice Morris, coupled with Mike Holmgren’s comments that indicated he was likely to go back to a committee approach despite Jones’ solid performance thus far, prevented Julius from garnering a higher ranking. The fact that Charlie Frye might be quarterbacking this team for the foreseeable future won’t help his cause, either.

I see Barber is your #1 RB going forward, but also noticed that David’s “Ease of Schedule - Rushing” article from last week has Dallas is tied with the NYG for the toughest Rushing Schedule going forward. That includes the week 14-16 house or horrors stretch of @PIT, NYG, BAL. This may be a stupid question, but did you fully take that into account in the ranking?
—John

That’s actually a very good question. Strength of schedule is a hot point in fantasy football; some swear by it, others view it as useless. With these rankings I can’t say that strength of schedule doesn’t factor into my decision-making process at all, but it’s certainly not a large factor. By that I mean, you can’t help but know that the Browns will face Pittsburgh and Baltimore again, that NFC East teams have to go through a meatgrinder of a division, and so on and so forth. But with two-thirds of the season left I didn’t pore over each player’s remaining slate to bump them up or down. Strength of schedule can be so volatile—look at last year’s Titans, for example, who were world-beaters when Albert Haynesworth was in the lineup and cupcakes when he was out. Or the Bears or Dolphins, both of whom were viewed as soft matchups heading into the season (based on last year’s stats) but who now rank in the bottom third of the league in fantasy points allowed to running backs. Because there is such disparate opinion about strength of schedule, I’ll let those who do put stock in the stat downgrade Barber (or others) on their own.

Hope that helps clarify where I’m coming from, both in general and with regards to some specific rankings. I’ll take another shot at setting the rankings going forward over the next couple of days and welcome your comments once again.