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Carolina On My Mind

Posted by John Tuvey in Fantasy Football (Thursday August 28, 2008 at 2:34 am)

First, let me say unabashedly that the NFL Network is the greatest invention ever. I just sat down to the replay of the Redskins-Panthers preseason tilt and gave my thumb a serious workout with the DVR. It was like watching game films all over again and has ratcheted my excitement for the coming season up to 11.

Yes, I know this was a preseason game against a defense that was already down a couple linebackers and lost Jason Taylor early in the contest. That said, color me impressed with the Carolina blues. Here are some tidbits I noticed during the action I watched that helped solidify my faith in the Carolina offense this fantasy season.

Jake Delhomme looked confident and accurate. He was hit a couple times more than I’d like to see from a guy quarterbacking my fantasy squad in multiple leagues, but it’s not like I entered any of my drafts or auctions unaware that Delhomme was an injury risk. Of particular note were some bullets he fired to receivers other than Steve Smith and a touchdown at the end of the first half in which he recognized the blitz, changed the play at the line of scrimmage, set up the protection, then dropped a perfectly placed pass over the defender into the arms of Dante Rosario (who wasn’t even supposed to be here today). Looks like the wing is fine.

• As for Smith, he continues to play angry. He’ll return in Week 3 against a Vikings team that held him to 201 yards on 11 catches the last time he faced them. I sure hope I’m not facing Smith in any of my fantasy leagues in Week 3.

• I was admonished by a regular reader for failing to mention Jonathan Stewart in my last blog entry. Here’s the problem: everybody else is piling on the J-Stew bandwagon and taking him before I have the opportunity, so he’s on just of my teams thus far. Obviously the 50-yard touchdown run was sweet, but on two different occasions I noticed Stewart successfully picking up the blitz—once slowing up an outside rusher, the other on the above-mentioned touchdown when Delhomme pointed out the blitzing middle linebacker and Stewart stood him up and afforded Jake a clear throwing lane. May seem like a sniggling detail, but running backs who can’t pass protect take a seat on third down and rookie backs are notoriously incompetent at this particular skill. There’s no question Carolina coaches saw what I saw, which may help expedite Stewart’s ascension to the two-thirds portion of the workload I am anticipating.

• On both Stewart’s long touchdown run and the follow-up by DeAngelo Williams, fullback Brad Hoover made absolutely critical blocks that set each play in motion. While I like what the Carolina line has done this offseason to turn itself into a run-blocking power, Hoover might very well be the key to the fantasy success of both Williams and Stewart. If he is injured at any point this season, it might be a wise time to sell high on your Carolina backs in a redraft league.

• Also worth noting is the downfield blocking of the wide receivers. I saw Dwayne Jarrett make a very nice block on one of Stewart’s runs, which—like Stewart’s pass protection—might expedite his path to playing time. Something to keep in mind if you’re banking on D.J. Hackett as a sleeper this season: it’s tough to make catches when you’re not on the field, and with the Panthers primarily a running team the downfield blocking of Muhsin Muhammad and Jarrett might be more important to John Fox than Hackett’s pass-catching ability.

Three Guys Who Have Never Been In My Kitchen

Posted by John Tuvey in Fantasy Football (Monday August 25, 2008 at 12:57 pm)

Carson Palmer. Frank Gore. Plaxico Burress.

I’d throw in Tom Brady, too, but he’s got quite a reputation as a player and my wife has been walking around with a little extra spring in her step lately so I can’t be 100 percent sure.

Yes, this blog’s title refers to Cliff Claven’s famous Final Jeopardy response from a favorite episode of “Cheers”. And while in the case of Palmer, Gore, and Burress it’s true—they’ve never even called, let alone visited—it also serves a dual purpose. Of the multiple leagues I’m participating in this year, I always find it interesting to find out which guys don’t wind up on one of my many teams—and then try to figure out why.

In some cases it could be that I have bad draft positions—for example, if I didn’t have an ace or deuce this year, LT and Adrian Peterson would be candidates for the list. By and large, however, it’s because a whole bunch of fellow league members value a player more than I, to the point that said players are already off the draft board by the time I get around to considering them for my roster.

The poster children for that syndrome in 2008 are Palmer, Gore, and Burress.

I still have Palmer as the No. 5 quarterback on my draft board. But there’s not just a tier between the top four (Brady, Manning, Romo, Brees) and the rest of the position, there’s a chasm. During the mock season I found myself going after an elite quarterback a little more frequently than I might typically, to see what kind of teams I would field. For the most part, I didn’t like the way those teams turned out. With six of nine teams laying something (money or reputation) on the line already formed, only twice have I pursued one of the elite quarterbacks. In both cases I’m a little thin at wide receiver, but overall pleased with the way the teams turned out. That’s why when the first four quarterbacks are gone I mentally cross that position off the wish list for a couple rounds; I like the value better in the later rounds.

Gore is a guy I just can’t bring myself to take in Round One, and by the time it gets back to me in Round Two someone else has grabbed him. He’s not among my first eight backs, and once he comes into play I’m already thinking about going with Randy Moss or Reggie Wayne and waiting on backs until the third or fourth round. It’s not that I don’t believe Gore is supremely talented; it’s his supporting cast, from pass-happy offensive coordinator Mike Martz to journeyman quarterback J.T. O’Sullivan to an offensive line that is at least a year or two away from being a helper rather than an impediment. I believe Gore’s numbers will be much more like Kevin Jones’ Detroit stats than Marshall Faulk’s “Greatest Show on Turf” era digits; hence the hesitation to pay a first-round price.

You’d think I’d be more welcoming to Burress after capitalizing on his run over the first half of last season in multiple leagues. I’m not averse to spending Sunday morning waiting for the inactives list to make sure a questionable player will be on the field. But after watching Burress suck it up on an weekly basis all last season, get his ring, and then not get the paycheck he was expecting… I’m just not comfortable banking on him to do it all again. He’s already a little nicked up, the Giants will be playing all year long with a target on their backs, and that offense is more effective when it’s running the ball. Finally, while I thoroughly enjoyed watching Eli Manning bring down the Packers and Patriots last postseason and understand he’ll enter this season with more confidence (and endorsements) thanks to last year’s results, he’s one great-escape-and-throw-to-a-guy-who-catches-the-ball-on-his-helmet away from being just another Manning who can’t win big games. Remember, he led the NFL in interceptions last season and his postseason per-game numbers (213 yards, 1.5 touchdowns) weren’t a dramatic jump up from his regular season production (208 and 1.4). I don’t anticipate him regressing, but it’s not as if there will be another 1,000 yards and half-dozen touchdowns for Plax to be chasing after.

So the A-list invites have been sent out, and evidently there’s just no room for Palmer, Gore, and Plax in my kitchen. Not with Jake Delhomme and Robert Meachem (four teams each) at the table and Santonio Holmes, Zach Miller, and Josh Scobee (three teams each) fighting for elbow room at the breakfast bar.

The Gloves are Off!

Posted by John Tuvey in Fantasy Football (Monday August 18, 2008 at 2:59 pm)

There’s a bit of overlap here between the mock draft season and the real drauction season, but for me the gloves came off Thursday night with my first “real” draft of the year.

That one (the GooFEL) is a 10-team keeper league with several industry colleagues, and with the keeper element (players can be kept two rounds earlier than their draft position the previous year) I’m not sure how helpful listing the entire draft would be for you.

However, I did learn something worth sharing—and not just that two pitchers per trip by the waitress isn’t enough to keep 10 guys sated. I learned that people react to the preseason. How did I learn this? I learned this through my inability to acquire any of my favorite sleepers in a round befitting even my lofty expectations. Chris Johnson, fresh off his 66-yard burst in the Titans’ opener, went in the seventh—one spot before where I had protected LenDale White from the previous season and a round earlier than when I was expecting to add him as the handcuff. So I switched my sights to another favorite sleeper, Saints wideout Robert Meachem. Thanks to 140 yards and a touchdown, Meachem was off the board before my eighth-round pick rolled back around.

From that lesson I’ve adjusted my draft boards accordingly. Johnson, Meachem, and others I like more than the average bear are being moved up from to an enhanced ADP I’m labeling on my custom cheat sheet as EDP: expected draft position. That way I’ll know at a glance when I need to move on the guys I want.

Let’s move on to a redraft league I can actually throw out there for you to grade (those of you in the forums who miss the grading of the mocks, here’s your chance to opine on one of my teams; sure, it’s a small consolation prize but it’s better than a kick in the teeth, right?). The Fantasy Sports Writers Association is running four 12-team leagues this year; my conference drafted Sunday evening and includes some names you might recognize—among them Will Carroll from Rotowire, Sigmund Bloom from Football Guys, and George Winkler from The Sporting News. I had the fourth pick in a 20-round league using WCOFF rules and scoring. The entire results of the draft can be found here; I will list my own picks and thoughts below.

1.04—Joseph Addai, RB, Colts
I’ve moved Addai up to third in my personal rankings, though he would have been fourth behind Brian Westbrook in a PPR league like this. Westy went two, and for a moment I thought hometown hero Adrian Peterson might fall into my lap; I’ll settle for Addai. The Steven Jackson holdout concerns me; if he were in camp, it’s unlikely I would have had the opportunity to pass on him.

2.09—Reggie Bush, RB, Saints
Yes, it’s a PPR league. I was hoping for an elite receiver but Wayne, Fitzy, Edwards, and Colston were already off the board by my pick.

3.04—Santonio Holmes, WR, Steelers
It was between Romo and Holmes and Will Carroll, picking one spot ahead of me, made the decision for me. I’ve been getting Holmes later than this in mocks, but as I mentioned above I was concerned his recent preseason showing would take him off the board before his ADP. And I don’t feel like I reached for Holmes here.

4.09—Wes Welker, WR, Patriots
Considering that I debated Holmes or Welker in R3 you can imagine how thrilled I was that he snuck back around to me.

5.04—Roddy White, WR, Falcons
I wanted to go Marvin Harrison or Calvin Johnson here, but I felt hamstrung by the bye weeks: both Indy and the Lions have a Week 4 bye, and I already had Welker taking that week off. I crossed my fingers and hoped one would make it back to me, but that dream was scuttled within five picks.

6.09—Nate Burleson, WR, Seahawks
The guy I wanted, Browns quarterback Derek Anderson, went one pick ahead of me to the autodrafter. Sure, there were sour grapes involved, but once the autodrafter comes back to find his team drafted five straight running backs, then four quarterbacks, then three defenses, then three kickers and three tight ends—in a league where you have to start three wide receivers—I’m guessing there’s a potential trade to be made. And it’s certainly a case for at least bothering to show up for your draft, especially if it’s one where the results will be publicized. But I digress.

7.04—Chris Johnson, RB, Titans
The running backs have already been picked clean—I was hoping to go LenDale/Johnson or Stewart/Williams in rounds 6 and 7 but White and Stew were gone before I had a shot—so it’s time to start swinging for the fences. In a PPR league I don’t mind Johnson one bit, especially after watching LenDale knock down a short Vince Young toss the other night.

8.09—Jake Delhomme, QB, Panthers
Again, an issue with the autodrafter. Unfortunately, I figured out this round that his picks were going straight off the system’s default “Best Player Available” regardless of position. So the fact that he already had Anderson and McNabb didn’t prevent him from taking Hasselbeck one pick before I had him queued up. Again, there should be a trade to be made here.

9.04—Ray Rice, RB, Ravens
Another swing-for-the-fences play. If McGahee stays hurt, or if rumors of turning Rice into MoJo north are true, this is a great value. Given what’s left on the board, I’ll take that risk. At minimum I expect to field a phone call from the guy who took McGahee in Round 2.

10.09—Matt Leinart, QB, Cardinals
Bloom thwarted my plan to back up Delhomme with Aaron Rodgers, and I must say his strategy of a Schaub/Rodgers tag-team at quarterback is worthy of admiration. My plan to cuff Leinart to Kurt Warner in Round 17 is blown up when Warner goes in Round 13.

11. 04—Zach Miller, TE, Raiders
Love Zach Miller this year, especially in a PPR. Talented tight end, young quarterbacks are prone to checking down to the tight end, Oakland’s line won’t allow for many deep balls… it’s nothing I haven’t professed before. And since Miller scored in the preseason game a couple nights previous, I felt like I had to take him here; heck, Heath Miller just went off the board so they were already reaching the dregs of the tight end position.

12.09—Robert Meachem, WR, Saints
Now this is more like it! One week removed from a big game, Meachem goes in a much more reasonable location. Still love him in that offense.

13.04—Sidney Rice, WR, Vikings
Plenty of upside as a red-zone threat. Plus, I’m an unabashed Viking fan and it’s always nice to have a homeboy. And, the guy who sniped me on a couple quarterbacks will leave this draft with Arnaz Battle and Antwaan Randle El as his only wideouts in a league where you start three and a flex. I’m not a big advocate of drafting with trading in mind, but it does appear to be a good fit.

14.09—Pierre Thomas, RB, Saints
Software malfunction in the draft room almost cost me the Reggie Bush handcuff. Thankfully, it was the third or fourth time we had to roll the draft back because someone got kicked out—okay, maybe “thankfully” is the wrong word—so my pleas and prayers were answered. It helps that I was on the phone with the league commissioner explaining my dilemma while the draft was passing me by.

15.04—Kevin Boss, TE, Giants
I didn’t mean to prolong a run on backup fantasy tight ends (Boss was the third of five consecutive tight ends taken), but with a 20-man roster I figured Boss was good insurance for Miller. Dustin Keller would have been the pick but the Jets and Raiders share a bye.

16.09—Ravens D/ST
At this point I had the last four rounds slotted for two defenses and two kickers. But when the defense I expected to take in Round 20—the Bills, one of my favorite deep sleepers—went earlier in Round 16 I thought I’d better jump in. No complaints about getting the Ravens, even though they’re not the vintage Ravens of yore. And as for a backup defense… well, I figure the autodrafter who picked the Vikings, Giants, and Patriots in rounds 10 through 12 would be kicking one to the curb, or maybe tossing one in when he starts looking for a wideout.

17.04—Brian Leonard, RB, Rams
I opted for Leonard, sore shoulder and all, over Antonio Pittman because if Jackson does come back Leonard still retains some value—especially in a PPR. Oh, and the autodrafter happens to have Steven Jackson so… I think you see where I’m going with this.

18.09—Josh Scobee, K, Jaguars
Needed one. Best one still on the board. Will get another one later.

19.04—Jacob Hester, RB, Chargers
At this point there’s not much left. Maybe Hester takes Michael Turner’s role, maybe not. Maybe the LT owner trades me a defense when the Ravens are on the bye to help himself sleep better at night. It’s the 19th round, it’s not like I’m expecting 1,500 and 12. And maybe having him on a team will help me stop referring to him as Jesse Hester, the ex-Raider/Colt/Ram receiver from the mid-80s to the mid-90s.

20.09—Lawrence Tynes, K, Giants
Needed one that didn’t share a bye with Scobee. Best one still on the board.

Expected lineup (WCOFF scoring) for Team 2V:
Delhomme or Leinart, depending on the matchup
Addai and Bush
Holmes, Welker, and White
Miller
Flex Burleson, Meachem, or one of the rookie backs (Johnson or Rice) if they emerge
Scobee
Ravens D/ST

The quarterbacking is suspect (two guys who missed a bunch of time last year due to injury) but has very nice upside. My backs catch passes, my receivers are solid and deep, and there is upside in those rookie backs as well. I don’t have any major quibbles here, but then again I shouldn’t; I drafted this team. Love to hear your thoughts on where I went wrong, who I’ve over-valued, etc.

Hey, the gloves are off; now these drafts and auctions (drauctions, as it were) count.

Preseason Waffling

Posted by John Tuvey in Fantasy Football (Wednesday August 13, 2008 at 11:13 am)

For the fourth time in nine industry mock drafts I found myself with the first overall selection (don’t worry, Karma got me back; I pick 13th in my 16-team BoTH league).

And for the fourth time I took LaDainian Tomlinson with the first overall selection.

But for the first time I found myself spending more than a few seconds making the decision. In fact, I actually ran through all five players in that first tier to make sure I was doing the right thing.

I ended up moving Steven Jackson to the five hole in that hierarchy. I know holdout running backs walk into camp and don’t miss a beat, but there are also cases of injury because said holdouts aren’t in “football shape”. Mix in lingering concerns over the health of the Rams’ offensive line and he was the player I felt least comfortable with among the fave five.

Don’t get me wrong, if I’m picking fifth and Steven Jackson falls into my lap I’m not complaining. But the line must be drawn somewhere.

Brian Westbrook slips to fourth. Guard Shawn Andrews’ depression doesn’t help, as he’s a big part of that line’s (and subsequently Westbrook’s) success. But again, if I’m at four and I wind up with Westy I’m not shedding any tears.

I opened the offseason back in January with Joseph Addai second on my running back rankings, but he slid to five over the intervening months. Now, after looking back and realizing how nice his numbers were last year—and not finding any reason for those numbers to decline—he’s inching back up the rankings.

And then there were two. Being a Viking fan in Minnesota I have to fight the power of all the purple kool-aid I drink to make sure this decision is made objectively. But for the first time this mock draft season, I was ready to pull the trigger on the hometown hero over LT—for just a split second.

Now this wasn’t an internal debate comparable to Chris Cooley battling OnStar, but I did hesitate before loading LT into the draft queue. And here’s why. This draft came on the heels of Jacob Hester’s two touchdowns in the preseason opener, which got me to thinking about what (if any) bite the rookie might take out of LT’s workload. Mix in center Nick Hardwick’s lingering injury and all of a sudden the unquestioned top pick had questions.

And then I came to my senses. It’s the preseason, and if I need to pick up Hester a round or two earlier to help me sleep better at night (he went undrafted in this particular mock, thanks to some unique roster structuring that required three quarterbacks), then so be it.

So I’ll leave the waffling for breakfast and stick to the cheat sheet I spent so much time crafting. At least until the next time I pick first…

The Ogden Curse?

Posted by John Tuvey in Fantasy Football, Offensive Lines (Wednesday July 30, 2008 at 1:54 am)

It’s getting more and more difficult for me to justify my infatuation with Willis McGahee this preseason, thanks in no small part to the supernatural powers of Jonathan Ogden.

Is JO upset that I waited until he was retired to order my purple 75 jersey? That it didn’t take its place upon my wall of reverence (right next to Willie Roaf and Tony Boselli) until his career was apparently over?

Okay, I’ll concede that maybe this all has nothing to do with me personally. But every time I fight off the latest McGahee nick or cut or skipped practice, every time I rationalize that Ray Rice is less Maurice Jones-Drew and more Michael Turner in Cam Cameron’s new Baltimore offense… every time I bump McGahee into the back end of the first round, another Raven left tackle goes down.

Maybe I’m a glass half full kind of guy, but despite Ogden’s departure I still had (have?) the Ravens pegged for a decent offensive line. The unit is young but quite solid along the interior, and I had hoped supplemental draft find Jared Gaither could learn on the job while filling Ogden’s shoes while Adam Terry would take over on the right side.

Then Gaither suffered an ankle injury early in camp and the Ravens were forced to move Terry across to the left side. What happens? Tuesday morning he gets carted off with a injury, apparently to the same ankle he just had surgically repaired. Subsequent news on both fronts is good, as neither should be lost for a significant amount of time. However, their absence leaves Baltimore with two-year practice squad veteran Mike Kracalik on the left side and 2008 third-round pick Oneil Cousins on the right. Combined NFL game experience: nada.

All of which explains why Ravens GM Ozzie Newsome is spending so much time on the phone, looking for veteran tackle depth. And why McGahee continues to yo-yo up and down my cheat sheet. With a solid offensive line, or at least one that’s had the opportunity to play together in camp, I have Willis on the fringe of the first round. With Kracalik and Cousins manning the tackles, I’m not as eager to take that risk.

Unless, of course, Newsome’s next call is to the Ogden residence and involves copious amounts of begging and pleading.

Mockumentary 6.0

Posted by John Tuvey in Fantasy Football (Friday July 25, 2008 at 12:05 pm)

With this mock recap I’m caught up, except for the Tri-Draft the Huddle is conducting with the same owners drafting in the same spots in three separate drafts in June, July, and August. I’ll discuss that more when we launch into the August draft in a couple weeks, but it’s a nifty way to track who’s moving up or down in the collective fantasy football consciousness—and also correct errors you may have made in the earlier draft or drafts.

But I’m getting ahead of myself. This is a mock conducted for my good friend and radio co-host Bo Mitchell at Fantasy Football Champs. It’s a 10-teamer, which after all those 12-team drafts leaves me with a team that feels pretty doggone good.

Shockingly, I did not get the first overall pick in this mock; in fact, I’m back to picking seventh, which means more practice for my actual pick in the 2VFFL this August. A quick note: Huddle forum member Savage Beatings posed a good question about my three-mock run with the first overall pick, wondering if I did anything different—especially in the later rounds—on purpose. Unfortunately, I’m not that smart. Each team I constructed was independent of what happened in previous drafts as I tried to build the best team possible. If there was one philosophy I noticed coming out of the situation, it’s that having LT freed me up to take chances with the rest of my running backs.

Again, I digress. Back to this mock, which took place last week.

01.07 – Clinton Portis, RB, Redskins
Portis was on the board not because somebody jumped on Brady or Moss or Manning, but because someone took Frank Gore sixth. It’s a PPR league, but let’s just say I couldn’t click on my pick fast enough once Portis slid to my draft spot.

02.04 – Willis McGahee, RB, Ravens
I’m a big fan of Willis this year, though the more I follow the situation the more I think I’d better get Ray Rice just in case. In a Cam Cameron offense there will be PPR help in the Baltimore backfield, and to play it safe and CYA Rice is fast becoming a must-cuff. Worthy of note: Rice went undrafted in this 18-rounder, maybe because the way the rosters were set up required three quarterbacks. I know given the choice between Rice and Chris Redman in round 17 I’d roll with the rook.

03.07 – Torry Holt, WR, Rams
Nine receivers went off the board in rounds two and three, so by the time my pick comes up it’s picked pretty clean. This being a PPR I contemplated Wes Welker here but thought he might still be around next round. Plus, while I don’t believe Holt is an elite fantasy wideout any more, I like the value he brings at this point in the draft.

04.04 – Wes Welker, WR, Patriots
Plax was the only wideout to go in the six picks since my Holt selection, so this was a no-brainer.

05.07 – Carson Palmer, QB, Bengals
It’s a 10-teamer, remember? How can you not be thrilled with a core of Portis, McGahee, Holt, Welker, and Palmer?

06.04 – Roddy White, WR, Falcons
I thought Jonathan Stewart might slide around to me, but I didn’t get so lucky. A few of my other faves at this point in a draft—Santonio Holmes, Thomas Jones, Edgerrin James—also went in the six picks since I grabbed Palmer, leaving me scrambling a bit. This league starts three wideouts and a flex, and White was the one I had ranked highest so I’m trying to follow my own advice of not being afraid to take guys I like a round or two earlier than their ADP.

07.07 – Chris Cooley, TE, Redskins
This is the earliest I’ve taken a tight end in any of my mocks this year, and I have to believe if Cooley is still on the board in round six or seven in future mocks I’ll stray from my strategy of waiting until late and grabbing L.J. Smith and/or Zach Miller.

08.04 – LenDale White, RB, Titans
It’s a mock so the fact that Portis and McGahee share a bye week isn’t devastating, but to make this play out as real as possible I figured I’d better look for some Week 10 help here. The plan is to get Chris Johnson in round nine and hope Brian Urlacher gets hurt before the Titans travel to Chicago November 9.

09.07 – Chris Johnson, RB, Titans
I love it when a plan comes together! Now about that Urlacher injury…

10.04 – Vincent Jackson, WR, Chargers
This pick was a mistake. Seriously. I was clicking on Donovan McNabb, who was still on the board and would have provided fantastic Palmer insurance/trade bait… and the draft room we were using crashed on me. When it reopened the system had selected Jackson for me. Of course, if Jackson has a breakout, 10-touchdown season I’ll claim this pick as if it were my very own brainchild.

11.07 – Jake Delhomme, QB, Panthers
I’d still rather have McNabb, but nonetheless Delhomme in round 11 is a solid value—especially since I don’t have to put all my eggs in the “hope he stays healthy” basket.

12.04 – Ryan Torain, RB, Broncos
The answer to the question, “At what point would you feel comfortable taking a Broncos back?” is for me, apparently, “In Round 12 as my fifth back.”

13.07 – Robert Meachem, WR, Saints
This draft was conducted prior to New Orleans adding Jeremy Shockey to the mix, but I still think that passing game has enough to offer that I won’t back down from tabbing Meachem as one of my favorite sleepers this year.

14.04 – Zach Miller, TE, Raiders
Did I mention the quirky rosters require two tight ends? I’m still confident I can get a kicker and defense I like.

15.07 – Nate Kaeding, K, Chargers
I’m okay starting the kicker run if a) it’s not too early and b) I’m throwing darts at guys who will probably be the first to go when I make my week one waiver wire moves.

16.04 – Seattle Seahawks D/ST
Only one team still needs a defense, but why risk losing out on one of my favorite fantasy defenses this year? So I can take Alex Smith over Chris Redman as my third quarterback? Not worth it.

17.07 – Chris Redman, QB, Falcons
One of my fellow drafters noted that this may be Redman’s first-ever appearance in a fantasy draft. Another added that it’s probably his last. Like I said, odds are he’s in the free agent pool before kickoff of week two but the roster requires three QBs.

18.04 – David Patten, WR, Saints
How often can you place a hedge bet on the sleeper wideout you took in Round 13? Hopefully not too often, but when that luxury presents itself…

Mockumentary 5.0

Posted by John Tuvey in Fantasy Football (Monday July 21, 2008 at 12:07 pm)

Continuing to catch up on the mocks I’ve been participating in. This mock will appear in an upcoming issue of USA Today’s Sports Weekly, so keep an eye out for that tome.

And here’s hoping I haven’t burned up all my karma during the mock portion of the program, as this is my third consecutive draft with the first overall pick.

01.01 – LaDainian Tomlinson, RB, Chargers
Trying to figure out what might change my mind at the top of the draft. Maybe a key injury to the Chargers’ O-line or something happening to Chester Taylor and ADP leaps to the fore. Outside of that, however, I’m sticking with LT.

02.12 – Andre Johnson, WR, Texans
Three quarterbacks were off the board already, and with Lynch and McGahee gone I toyed with taking Brandon Jacobs here. But the opportunity to score a pair of elite receivers was just too tempting. I seriously considered Steve Smith over Andre Johnson, and to be honest I don’t have a legitimate reason for why I didn’t go that direction. In fact, if I were to do this draft again I’d probably make this Smith and Colston.

03.01 – Marques Colston, WR, Saints
At this point anyone who’s been tracking my mocks must think I have a deal with Colston’s agent or maybe posters of him on my bedroom wall. I assure you, neither is true; that said, I’m frothy about his prospects this season.

04.12 – Jonathan Stewart, RB, Panthers
Turner and James failed to fall to me, and with LT at RB1 I felt the liberty to take some chances with the rest of my running back corps. As you’ll notice over the next few picks, my backfield is, in a word, young.

05.01 – Kevin Smith, RB, Lions
Rookie back No. 2 for this squad. I shouldn’t need to remind you that running back is the one position where rookies consistently come in and make an immediate impact—though you may hear it anyway as I keep repeating it to myself.

06.12 – Matt Hasselbeck, QB, Seahawks
Eleven quarterbacks were already off the board as this draft skewed early at that position, so I didn’t think I could wait much longer to snare a tandem I was comfortable with.

07.01 – Chris Johnson, RB, Titans
Another rookie back. When you think about it, I only need to go one-for-three on my rookie backs to have a stud backfield. Two for three and I’m absolutely loaded. Oh-for-three and I’ll need to get loaded to forget this draft.

08.12 – Nate Burleson, WR, Seahawks
The hook-up! Actually, I don’t go out of the way to pair a quarterback with a wideout but if it happens organically I’m okay with it. The alternatives were Anthony Gonzalez, who has upside but still may be behind Marvin Harrison in the pecking order, and Bernard Berrian, who has plenty of quarterback questions.

09.01 – Matt Schaub, QB, Texans
Antoher hook-up! Funny how I was the next-to-last team to take a quarterback but the second to take a backup; in fact, no quarterbacks went off the board between Hass and Schaub. This is my philosophy of choice in 2008: waiting on a quarterback, but pairing him up with a solid backup so that I can play the better matchup between the two.

10.12 – DeAngelo Williams, RB, Panthers
I had hoped Berrian might slide this far, but he didn’t. And since every other team except one has a tight end I can afford to wait on the position. Williams is Stewart insurance, and CYA is never a bad policy.

11.01 – Reggie Williams, WR, Jaguars
Not a big fan, but he was the best wideout on the board and I needed some depth at the position. Plus, he completed the Williams trifecta on the heels of DeAngelo and Ricky, who went immediately prior to my pair of picks.

12.12 – L.J. Smith, TE, Eagles
So three tight ends went off the board since my last pick; guess depth at the position is important to my colleagues in this draft. Fortunately my two favorite sleepers were both available, so I paired them at the 12/13 turn.

13.01 – Zach Miller, TE, Raiders
I’ll be mildly surprised if Smith or Miller—or both—aren’t on every team I assemble this season. It’s just too easy to wait until the double-digit rounds when I know I’ll land at least one of my sleeper tight ends.

14.12 – Nate Kaeding, K, Chargers
Four kickers already off the board and I still snag Kaeding? No complaints here. And here’s another theory I’m developing: it’s easier to predict which offenses will remain productive (and thus have good kickers) than it is to predict which team defenses will score—and to some extent even which tight ends will produce, after the elite are off the board. That’s why I feel comfortable taking kickers a little earlier than defenses and occasionally even tight ends.

15.01 – Baltimore Ravens D/ST
Eight rounds after the first defense went off the board, five rounds after all but one other team had their defense, two rounds after everyone else picked up their D/ST… I get the Ravens. How can you complain about that?

16.12 – Darren Sproles, RB, Chargers
Here’s hoping Mr. Irrelevant stays that way.

Mockumentary 4.0

Posted by John Tuvey in Fantasy Football (Wednesday July 16, 2008 at 11:45 am)

My hope was to get this mock analysis up before the publication hit the newsstands. And since I haven’t seen the RotoWorld magazine on the shelves yet, the endeavor must be considered successful.

This mock was conducted June 24 and included a plethora of industry representatives from sites such as Football Guys, Fantasy Guru, Mock Draft Central, NFL.com, and Fanball as well as the hosts from RotoWorld. Complete results should be available in that forthcoming publication as well as on the RotoWorld site, though you may need a membership to get behind the curtain.

In any event, clean living and positive thinking landed me the first overall pick for a second consecutive mock, and with all these industry insiders looking on I didn’t want to screw it up.

01.01 – LaDainian Tomlinson, RB, Chargers
Shocker. I’ve said it before (see Mockumentary 3.0) and I’ll say it again (in a bit of foreshadowing, care to guess what pick I have for the draft to be discussed in Mockumentary 5.0?), while I see the upside in guys like All Day and Westy and S-Jax, without hesitation I’ll take LT with the first pick.

02.12 – Marques Colston, WR, Saints
What’s not to like about a receiver entering his third year playing in an offense that will produce 4,000 passing yards and 30 passing touchdowns? I was a little surprised Housh and Fitz both went off the board before Colston—but certainly not disappointed. The alternatives were Steve Smith and Brandon Jacobs, but I’m infatuated with Colston and… well, I’ll let you skip ahead to the next pick.

03.01 – Peyton Manning, QB, Colts
No, that’s not a misprint. It’s an “experts” league, remember, so 16 of the first 20 picks were running backs. And after a minirun on wideouts, I was able to pair my top quarterback with my top running back. Closed circuit to the trophy engraver: there’s two o’s in “Goose”.

04.12 – Thomas Jones, RB, Jets
My old standbys for this pick, Edgerrin James and Jonathan Stewart, were both off the board by the time my selection rolled around. I like Jones’ new line and believe he has upside, so I don’t mind him as my No. 2 to LT.

05.01 – Santonio Holmes, WR, Steelers
When mock season started, the fifth round felt early for Holmes; now I’m happy to get him here—especially since the next-best options on the board were Roddy White and Dwayne Bowe.

06.12 – Felix Jones, RB, Cowboys
A look at my mocks thus far suggest an unnatural fondness for young men… and by that I mean I’ve been heavy on rookie backs. My justification: I’ll take my chances with a guy who has upside as opposed to a mediocre player we’ve already seen. I would have been perfectly happy settling for one rookie had Fred Taylor not gone one pick before I went on the clock.

07.01 – Chris Johnson, RB, Titans
With these two picks I’m halfway towards fielding a medal-winning entry in the 4×100 in Beijing later this month. Hey, it was speedy rookies or guys like DeAngelo Williams, Justin Fargas, and Ahman Green.

08.12 – Reggie Brown, WR, Eagles
Somebody needs to catch the copious amount of passes in Philly, and for my third receiver I’m willing to take a shot that Brown is the guy.

09.01 – Bernard Berrian, WR, Vikings
It’s a non-PPR league with three starting wideouts and a flex, so depth at the position is key. Berrian doesn’t have to catch a ton of balls, just all the deep ones Tarvares Jackson throws his way.

10.12 – Laurent Robinson, WR, Falcons
Unlike my last mock I was able to contain my zeal for Robinson to a far more reasonable 10th-round selection.

11.01 – L.J. Smith, TE, Eagles
I’ve been consistently waiting until the double-digit rounds for my tight end and consistently ending up with Smith or Zach Miller. I can live with that.

12.12 – Seattle Seahawks D/ST
Half the teams had their defense already, so I figured I’d beat the rush and get a good one here.

13.01 – Nick Folk, K, Cowboys
I could have waited on a kicker, but Zach Miller (my other fallback tight end) was already off the board, so I’ll start the run rather than end it. Why Folk and not Gostkowski if I’m taking the first kicker off the board? Because to ensure roster flexibility I like my kicker and defense (and also tight end, if I can swing it) to have different bye weeks. That way I’m not forced to carve into my bench to fill those spots during the byes.

14.12 – Leon Washington, RB, Jets
A little Thomas Jones insurance. My State Farm agent recommended it.

15.01 – Chris Brown, RB, Texans
All it will take for this to be a monster pick for me is an Ahman Green injury, which is only as likely as Dark Knight outgrossing Meet Dave at the box office.

Mockumentary 3.0

Posted by John Tuvey in Fantasy Football (Monday July 7, 2008 at 10:58 am)

Where has the summer gone? With the family sojourn behind me it’s time to catch up on the spate of mocks I’ve participated in up to this point.

Mock 3.0 comes from the Huddle’s entry in the Fantasy Football Indepth Expert Challenge held June 11 and is the first of an overabundance of mocks in which I would up with the first pick. It’s essentially a performance scoring system, with one point per reception as well, starting three wide receivers and a flex.

01.01 – LaDainian Tomlinson, RB, Chargers
I’ve seen Brian Westbrook go first overall in a PPR league, and I’ve seen some places where Adrian Peterson goes off the board before LT. This is neither of those.

02.12 – Marques Colston, WR, Saints
It’s entirely possible I’m higher on Colston than others, but I’m enamored by his prospects as a third-year wideout in that offense. Of course, if Peyton Manning would have slipped to me I would have gone that direction instead… and then probably grabbed Colston in Round Three.

03.01 – Jamal Lewis, RB, Browns
In retrospect I may have gone with Brandon Jacobs, but Lewis has the advantage of being the only show in town.

04.12 – Edgerrin James, RB, Cardinals
With four picks left before my selection Jacobs, Santonio Holmes, Thomas Jones, and Roy Williams were still on the board—and queued up to be my next pick. I guess I don’t have to tell you who the four players taken directly in front of me were, do I?

05.01 – Drew Brees, QB, Saints
The plan once again was to wait on a quarterback, but Brees was in my estimation too good of a value to pass up here. Plus, I had three backs and figured I could find receivers I liked next time around.

06.12 – Nate Burleson, WR, Seahawks
Anthony Gonzalez and Reggie Brown also factored into the decision-making process as I took a pair of pass-catchers at the turn, and Gonzo is the pick I may regret not making. But I like Burleson in that offense, and with my next pick…

07.01 – Joey Galloway, WR, Buccaneers
…I opted for the veteran experience of Galloway—and the fact that he’s far and away the best pass-catcher on that team—over the muddled situations in Indy and Philly.

08.12 – Laurent Robinson, WR, Falcons
Too early? Probably. But my mantra this season is to not let other people’s rankings prevent me from getting one of my sleepers. Robinson was the guy I liked most on the draft board, and without another pressing need to fill I snagged him a round or two early.

09.01 – Ahman Green, RB, Texans
There’s no way Green stays healthy, but if I can squeeze a week or two of fill-in duty out of him behind a vastly improved offensive line—or deal him to the Chris Brown owner after a couple solid weeks—he’ll be worth the ninth-rounder.

10.12 – D.J. Hackett, WR, Panthers
Steve Slaton was supposed to fall to me to wrap up the Texans two-step (though with Brown and Chris Taylor still in the mix it’s a whole lot more complicated than just that), but when he didn’t I opted for Steve Smith’s wingman.

11.01 – Zach Miller, TE, Raiders
Miller is ending up on plenty of my mock rosters because I like the potential he gives me and I’m generally one of (if not the) last team taking a tight end.

12.12 – Jason Campbell, QB, Redskins
There seemed to be a run on backup quarterbacks and I didn’t want to be the guy left holding Rex Grossman. Besides, I like Campbell’s upside in Jim Zorn’s WCO.

13.01 – Tim Hightower, RB, Cardinals
Edge insurance, plain and simple. Thanks to Russ Grimm that line has improved to the point that a backup could step in and produce decent numbers.

14.12 – Seahawks D/ST
Entering the summer Seattle’s defense was more of a sleeper than a popular pick. I get the feeling the tide is turning, so I didn’t want to be left out and grabbed them here.

15.01 – Nate Kaeding, K, Chargers
Gostkowski’s bye week conflicted with the Seahawks D, so I “settled” for Kaeding.

16.12 – Robert Meacham, WR, Saints
One of my favorite sleeper picks, it’s been tough adding him in some mocks because I usually already have Colston and the roster sizes don’t allow for such depth. With 18 rounds there’s plenty room here.

17.01 – Justin McCareins, WR, Titans
This league starts three wideouts, remember, so I added a few extra options. McCareins is another sleeper who I think will blossom back under the tutelage of Mike Heimerdinger.

18.12 – Marcus Thomas, RB, Chargers
If the unthinkable happens it will likely be a backfield by committee in San Diego, and I’d have to think Thomas factors into that mix.

Mockumentary 2.0

Posted by John Tuvey in Fantasy Football (Thursday June 12, 2008 at 12:11 am)

Another day, another mock. Actually, they’re starting to stack up on me, as this draft is from Monday and I have already completed one (and almost two) more. The mock referenced below was a 10-team mock conducted with my good friends over at Fantasy Football Champs, many of whom I’ve worked in the past at another site. Feel free to let me know if I represented the Huddle well; as soon as Whitney and David give me my game jersey I promise to “pop it”, as I believe all the kids say.

In any event, here are my thoughts on how the draft transpired. Let me first say that after being in primarily 12-team mocks, the depth of the talent pool in a 10-team league was like ordering a burger and getting a steak sandwich… and a steak sandwich. But I’ll let the picks tell the rest of the story. The draft is posted at FFChamps (link to the draft here), but you may need to be a member to see the full thing; if you can survive with just the highlights (read: my team), they’re presented below.

01.03 – Steven Jackson, RB, Rams
Non-PPR league, otherwise I would have taken Westbrook. I would have been comfortable with either, and it should come as no surprise that Westy went with the next pick.

02.08 – Willis McGahee, RB, Ravens
Absolutely love getting McGahee here; in my opinion, he’s at minimum a top-eight pick, even without Jonathan Ogden. I might have considered Peyton Manning had he not gone with the pick directly ahead of mine, but the point is moot.

03.03 – Marques Colston, WR, Saints
I am expecting big things from Colston and have him at or near the top of the tier of receivers after Moss.Wayne/Owens are off the board. Edwards and Fitzgerald went ahead of him in this draft; had Colston gone instead of either of those receivers I may have leaned Steve Smith instead. Of course, Smith went with the very next pick.

04.08 – Roy Williams, WR, Lions
No more Mike Martz might actually be a boon for Williams, as those pesky slot receivers stole too much thunder. In new OC Jim Colletto’s scheme the outside receivers are the focus of the passing game (check out my soon-to-be-released article on the impact of new offensive coordinators for more details), giving Roy the nod over Anquan Boldin or Wes Welker here.

05.03 – Jonathan Stewart, RB, Panthers
How great is it to get Stewart’s upside as my No. 3 back? Only in a 10-teamer, that’s for sure. I may have opted for Michael Turner had he not gone three picks prior. Surprisingly, at least to me, Darren McFadden went in the middle of Round Four.

06.08 – Santonio Holmes, WR, Steelers
Exhibit 1A on the difference between 10-team and 12-team leagues: in my most recent 12-teamer I was thrilled to get Holmes at 04.04 as my second receiver. How stoked do you think I am to snag him in Round Six as my third wideout? Nope, even more stoked than that; try again.

07.03 – Thomas Jones, RB, Jets
Pickings were getting pretty slim at running back, but given the upgrades to Jones’ offensive line and the fact that he’s still a solid bet for 20 touches a game I was more than a little surprised to see Matt Forte, Rashard Mendenhall, Kevin Smith, Ronnie Brown, and Fred Taylor go before him. Even Chester Taylor went one pick before Jones, though that was to the Adrian Peterson owner so it’s tough to begrudge a handcuff.

08.08 – Donovan McNabb, QB, Eagles
Only one team besides me still needed a quarterback, and when healthy McNabb is capable of elite fantasy numbers. Of course, that “when healthy” caveat means I’ll need to draft insurance… but in a 10-teamer I should have little difficulty getting my favorite sleeper quarterback.

09.03 – Nate Burleson, WR, Seahawks
I’d actually prefer that Bobby Engram get thyself into camp and stop grumbling about his contract; that way Burly can be a No. 2 and fantasy folks won’t artificially upgrade him. And I can continue to wait on him. Other receivers I took Burly over include Hines Ward (already had a Steeler), Bernard Berrian (emotional hedge bet; as a Vikings fan I’d love for him to do well but if T-Jax blows I don’t want it killing my favorite and my fantasy team), Javon Walker (don’t trust his health and I’m iffy on his quarterback as well), and D.J. Hackett (I trust Matt Hasselbeck to stay healthy more than I do a guy coming off Tommy John surgery).

10.08 – Matt Schaub, QB, Texans
In my last draft I actually took Burleson in Round 10 and Schaub in Round 11, but at this point in the proceedings I’m going deeper for my sleepers rather than just playing by the cheat sheet. I certainly won’t hesitate to point out to DMD that I’ve taken his favorite sleeper quarterback in each of my first two mocks.

11.03 – Laurent Robinson, WR, Falcons
Yep, another sleeper. Wouldn’t make sense to write about a guy as my sleeper and then leave him on the table for Santana Moss or Derrick Mason, now, would it?

12.08 – New England Patriots D/ST
It’s the portion of the draft where you take the highest-ranked defense available, and in this case it was the Patriots. Why give away my sleeper Seahawks pick here when the Pats are available?

13.03 – Todd Heap, TE, Ravens
I vowed a couple years back—I can still remember the exact play when I made the vow—to never have the injury-prone Heap on one of my fantasy teams again. Mocks don’t count, do they?

14.08 – Josh Scobee, K, Jaguars
Rob Bironas, Matt Stover, and Josh Brown were already off the board when my shot at a kicker rolled around. Thankfully, none of them kick for an offense that finished in the top six in scoring last season. Scobee, as you might surmise from such a smarmy comment, does. Actually, now that I think about it, none of those kickers are with an offense that finished in the top 20 in scoring last year. Still smarmy? Sorry.

Yep, I highly recommend mixing the occasional 10-team mock into your 12-team efforts. You’ll feel pretty doggone good about the all-star team you assemble.

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