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Ten Wideouts to Watch

Posted by David Dorey in Fantasy Football (Thursday November 12, 2009 at 7:30 pm)

No matter if your fantasy team is undefeated or still looking for your first win, it is never too early to think about next year. Thesecond half of the NFL season is when you can catch a glimpse of 2010 by watching how young receivers are developing. Every game is a not only a chance for them to gain more experience, they also feed into the decision making process for quarterbacks and coaches.

Here’s a quick list of ten wide receivers that are worthy of tracking as the 2009 season heads into the final eight games of the year. These are the guys that could rise in the rankings during next summer.

1. Michael Crabtree (SF) – The 1.10 pick in the draft ended his ill-advised holdout and while you watch him play now, remember this is a youngster who is playing without the benefit of a training camp. He currently has only spent three weeks generating chemistry with the quarterback. He already had 81 yards on six receptions against the Colts. The question is if he is drafted as a fantasy starter next year or just as receiver depth.

2. Steve Smith (NYG) – The third-year player has already been impressive but that was mostly in early season play. He’s remained a solid contributor but only has one score in the last five weeks. If he can finish the season strong despite the whipping winds in Giants Stadium, he could end up as top 10 next year.

3. Mohamed Massaquoi (CLE) – The lanky rookie from Georgia still has not scored a touchdown and only has two games over 30 yards but is worth tracking since he’s already the #1 wide out in Cleveland where significant changes are likely for next year. If the Browns can ever assemble a passing game of any note, it’ll use Massaquoi as the primary receiver.

4. Hakeem Nicks (NYG) – The ex-Tarheel rookie quickly evolved into the slot receiver for the Giants but he’s already making an assault on the starting spot of Mario Manningham. Nicks has already displayed his speed but at 6’1” and 212 he has plenty of size for any role in the offense. Steve Smith and Nicks could develop into a better tandem than Plaxico Burress and Amani Toomer and the end of this year will hint how likely that will be.

5. Devin Thomas (WAS) – The second wideout off the board in the 2008 NFL draft has hardly lived up to his billing but the Redskins will be closely evaluating everyone in the organization in preparation of the annual upheaval. These final two months is when Thomas can win a starting job in what will be a new offense next year and likely with a new quarterback.

6. Andre Caldwell (CIN) – The second-year ex-Gator had a forgettable rookie season but already has become the starting slot receiver and had at least two catches in every game this year. He’s had three scores over the last six games and working towards becoming an integral cog in the Bengals passing machine.

7. Sammie Stroughter (TB) – He was just a seventh round pick out of Oregon State this year but Stroughter has made the most of opportunity by claiming the slot role since week one. His impact has been minimal so far but he is the only up-and-comer among receivers for a team that is in stage one of a rebuilding. Josh Freeman has one start and his only touchdown to a wide receiver went to the rookie.

8. Jeremy Maclin (PHI) – The Eagles first round pick has slowly been getting more involved in the offense and already had one big game thanks to the visiting Buccaneers. The Eagles feature one of the most pass-heavy schemes in the league and Maclin’s potential in this offense is almost unlimited.

9. Lance Long (KC) – The undrafted rookie never reached the field last year in Arizona and was picked up by the Chiefs. The last two games saw him replace Bobby Engram as the slot receiver and against the Jaguars he just had eight catches for 74 yards. The scheme will rely far more on the slot than most offenses and Long has a chance to start a career with a rebuilding team.

10. James Jones (GB) – The third-year player has claimed the slot away from the injured Jordy Nelson and will not be giving it back. With three scores over the last four games, Jones is starting to really click with quarterback Aaron Rodgers. He’s making his mark on a team with a productive passing game and already has more touchdowns than Greg Jennings.

The NFL is constantly changing and no position has as much developmental needs as wide receiver. Even if you are not angling for the league trophy this season, no reason why you can’t start working on your championship next year.

Running Downhill

Posted by David Dorey in Fantasy Football (Thursday October 29, 2009 at 8:57 pm)

Not only are running backs the most predictable and heaviest relied on player for an offense, their role comes into sharper focus later in the year when weather and wind force teams to run more. By now we think we know who the bad and good running backs are but the schedule has a huge impact on their production.

There are always a few guys who open their season facing an easier slate of defenses only to see far tougher challenges for the final two months of the years. These are the guys whose expectations need to be lowered and selling high in a trade is always a good idea.

There are also a few running backs that start their season going against a rough stretch of defenses only to see their schedule get significantly lighter starting in November. These players should outperform their season to date numbers and become much more attractive in a trade. These are the guys you need to know.

The biggest schedule swings for running backs:

Cleveland Browns – The season started with a brutal stretch of road games in Denver, Baltimore and Pittsburgh and also hosted the Vikings, Bengals and Packers – all top defenses against running backs. The only game where they did not face a top defense was in Buffalo when Jamal Lewis rushed for 117 yards. Their remaining schedule still has home stands against the Steelers and Ravens but they also play against the Bears, Lion, Chargers, Chiefs and Raiders. The Browns don’t have the talent for a big bang to end the year but the fantasy stats will be improved for the running backs.

Cincinnati Bengals – Cedric Benson has already seen a spike upwards in his production this year and better games should be yet to play. Consider that Benson started out playing the Broncos, Packers, Steelers and Ravens and yet he’s been one of the most productive runners this season. And after facing the Ravens and Steelers again in weeks nine and ten, his schedule turns delightful with games against the Raiders, Browns, Lions Chargers and Chiefs. As long as his heavy workload doesn’t tire him out later in the year, Benson could be ending with even bigger stats.

Tennessee Titans – Chris Johnson has been inconsistent at best and LenDale White has disappeared against a schedule that opened by facing the defenses of the Steelers, Jets, Colts, Jaguars and Patriots. The only time they did not face a great rushing defense was against the visiting Texans when Johnson gamed 197 rushing yards, 87 receiving yards and scored three times. There are still a few tough weeks left – Jaguars, Cardinals Colts and Dolphins but games against the 49ers, Bills, Texans, Rams and Chargers will make the second half of the year much better than the first.

Jacksonville Jaguars – Maurice Jones-Drew has certainly played mostly well so far and he’s done that despite facing defenses of the Colts, Cardinals, Seahawks and Titans. After facing the Titans again on Sunday, Jones-Drew should see an uptick in stats that could be considerable as he runs against the Chiefs, Bills, 49ers and Texans over the next six weeks. Fantasy playoff weeks go against the Dolphins, Colts and Patriots that will be no fun but Jones-Drew will make some noise before those weeks.

Arizona Cardinals – Tim Hightower and Chris Wells have not exactly been top runners and the offensive scheme will ensure that neither will ever be a 320+ carry player but they can score the short touchdowns as Hightower did last year. And the lower results of this season are related to an opening stretch that proved more challenging than was expected with games against the 49ers, Jaguars, Seahawks and Giants. The remaining schedule takes a big slant upwards though with match-ups against the Panthers, Bears, Rams, Lions and Rams. Wells started to get a bigger share of the workload last week though Hightower remains the named starter. Wells might be a nice calculated risk since he could progress into a bigger role and by the fantasy playoffs weeks wind up against the Lions and Rams.

The schedule has a big impact on your running backs but for a few teams there are two distinctly different parts to the season. Now is the time to acquire those players with the rising value and if you already own them – enjoy the ride.

Five Players to Save Your Season

Posted by David Dorey in Fantasy Football (Thursday October 22, 2009 at 5:55 pm)

Let’s be realistic here – about half of all teams have a losing season and by week seven there are more than a few fantasy teams looking at sitting out the league championship already. The good news – there is still time to save your season but you’ll need some luck (which has not been with you so far) and a few different players than whatever you have been using.

Below are five suggestions of players to acquire via a trade who should have good games over the next three weeks and yet are not so expensive that you have no chance to acquire them. You’ll need to use your own wisdom as to whom you can part with from your team but it is week seven and if you are 3-4 or worse, you have to try something different.

Donald Driver (GB) – The old man from the Packers has been rejuvenated this year and he’ll cost you more than any recent year. But he has scored twice this year and been around 95 yards or better in three of the last four games. This week he faces the weak Browns in Cleveland and in week nine he goes to Tampa Bay where everyone has a huge game. Even Week eight against the visiting Vikings should be a decent showing.

Devin Hester (CHI) – His team mate Johnny Knox is also interesting but Hester is the more sure thing on this Bears team that not only needs to pass each week, it can pass with big results thanks to Jay Cutler. Hester is always the primary wideout in challenging matchups and with games in Cincinnati and then hosting the Browns and Cardinals should roll up nice fantasy points when you need them most – now.

Austin Collie (IND) – Obviously Reggie Wayne would be optimal but might also cost your entire roster to obtain. But Collie has been on fire in the last two weeks with a total of 14 catches for 162 yards and three scores and more importantly those came against weaker secondaries of the Seahawks and Titans. The Colts schedule remains a cakewalk for the next three weeks with matchups against in St. Louis and then hosting the 49ers and Texans.

Joseph Addai (IND) – For the same reason that Collie looks advantageous for the next three games, Addai should have some nice fantasy points as well. He remains the primary back over Donald Brown and Addai acts as a receiver as well with 17 catches for 103 yards over just the last two games. He won’t trade for much since most believe Donald Brown will eventually take a greater share but for the next three games, the outlook for Addai is very bright.

LaDainian Tomlinson (SD) – As amazing as this may seem, Tomlinson has suffered tremendously in perception with an injury-marred season that has only seen him play two healthy games – once in Pittsburgh where all running backs go to die and last Monday against the Broncos defense when he still had 100 total yards. But Tomlinson catches a break with his schedule now playing in Kansas City and then at home against the Raiders. Week nine in New York against the Giants won’t be much fun but if he performs well enough for two weeks you could trade him back out.

If you are standing at 3-4 or worse in your league, you should not give up but instead need to shrink your season down to the next few games. You have to win now or later do not matter at all. Take a look at your roster and make some moves that shore up your next few games even if it comes at the expense of the stars you wanted for the entire season. Your season is down to the next two or three games.

Three Deadly Bye Weeks for WR

Posted by David Dorey in Fantasy Football (Friday October 16, 2009 at 4:39 am)

Now is the time to think ahead to get ahead in your league.

There’s an oddity in the NFL scheduling and it will almost certainly hit your team. In weeks 7, 8 and 9 there will be six teams on their bye each week. That means almost 1 in every five NFL teams will be resting their players each Sunday for the coming three weeks. With 18 teams affected, over half of all NFL players are about to be taking their bye. Yes, your team will be affected and especially wide receivers since you undoubtedly start more of them than any other position.

If you already have viable replacements on your roster, consider yourself lucky. For those of you who play in bigger leagues and/or have deeper rosters, the chances increase that your waiver wire doesn’t have an obvious starter just hanging out waiting for you to snap him up. Let’s take a look at the deadly three bye weeks for who will be missing and who you should be readily available on your waiver wire to use for the one game. If there are better choices – grab them. But if you are playing in a league of 12 teams or more with rosters of more than 16 players, the pickings are mighty slim on most waiver wires.

Week 7 – Derrick Mason, Brandon Marshall, Eddie Royal, Calvin Johnson, Mike Sims-Walker, T.J. Houshmandzadeh and Nate Burleson are off. Consider:

Chris Chambers (SD) – He disappears often but had a score and 39 yards in Pittsburgh. Playing in Kansas City should have some decent results since the defense will be devoted to keeping Vincent Jackson from pulling a “Miles Austin” on them again. That makes Chambers a bit more attractive with a great matchup.

Mohamed Massaquoi (CLE) – Easily forgotten since the horrible week five showing in Buffalo but the Browns will not throw for 23 total yards at home against the visiting Packers. They will also need to pass constantly and Anderson has already shown a penchant for finding Massaquoi who becomes the #1 wideout since Braylon Edwards left.

Devin Hester (CHI) – While Johnny Knox would be better, he’s probably been taken off the wire in most leagues and Hester has landed back on it after being dumped. But Hester remains the #1 wideout for Jay Cutler and plays in Cincinnati in week 7 for what should be a definite shootout. Relying on the defense and rushing attack no longer gets it done in Cincinnati this year.

Week 8 – Chad OchoCinco, Dwayne Bowe, Randy Moss, Wes Welker, Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes, Antonio Bryant and Santana Moss are off. Consider:

Torry Holt (JAC) – Mike Sims-Walker would be better but Holt remains the possession receiver who had been as good as seven catches for 95 yards this season and playing in Tennessee has been a goldmine for every other starting wideout.

Keenan Burton (STL) – Donnie Avery would be preferable but Burton should end up with a season high game in the week because he’ll be playing in Detroit. This may be the only week of the season that Burton actually holds significant promise.

Muhsin Muhammad (CAR)
– Sure, he lives on most waiver wires because he has not scored yet and seems capped at 50 or so yards per game but Muhammad also is never worse than about four catches for 40 yards and playing in Arizona in week 8 should net better than average points. Starting Muhammad says you are willing to live with 4-40 at worst but the Cardinals hold promise of more.

Week 9 – Terrell Owens, Bernard Berrian, Sidney Rice, Braylon Edwards and Donnie Avery are off. Works out to be on the light side but consider:


Josh Morgan (SF)
– By this time Michael Crabtree could be a factor as well but if he isn’t available and likely is not, Morgan makes a very attractive pick-up for week 9 when the Titans come to town and bring along their famed generosity to opposing wide receivers.

This is the week to go grab some guys from your waiver wire and prepare for weeks seven through nine now. Many fantasy rosters will be temporarily decimated because of bye week absences and overall scoring in your league will be lower than usual. If you want to go grab a wideout that can help you for multiple weeks consider those from San Francisco (@HOU, @IND and TEN), Chicago (@CIN, CLE and ARI) and any Colts player you can still get (@STL, SF and HOU).

The good news is that your opponents will have players out and likely won’t score as much because of missing starters. The bad news is that so will you unless you make moves now to prevent a drop in your team score for the deadly bye weeks.

Three Rules for Bye Weeks

Posted by David Dorey in Fantasy Football (Thursday October 8, 2009 at 6:15 pm)

Once bye weeks start, every league has at least a couple teams scrambling to cover players who will be out. While most rosters have multiple running backs, quarterbacks and wide receivers, many times they carry only one defense, tight end or kicker. The smaller the roster, the more likely extra defenses or kickers are a luxury you cannot afford.

You have to go grab someone new who may only be used for one week before being tossed back on the pile of free agents. The problem is that you are not going to find great options on the waiver wire. They are not currently on teams for a reason. So what is the best way to comb through the flotsam and jetsam of your league for a one week replacement?

Play the odds.

1. 35% More Tight End Touchdowns Occur at Home – So far this year, of the 53 touchdowns scored by tight ends, 32 (65%) came at home and 21 (35%) were on the road. Last season it was 61 road scores versus 84 home touchdowns. The number actually goes higher when you leave the list of studs that score everywhere and refer to the available players on your waiver wire. If you are in a points-per-reception league, there are at least 10% more receptions playing at home and even higher for the group you are undoubtedly eyeing for a one week play. Most teams use tight ends for more blocking on the road is the prevailing reason. Grab a replacement tight end that will be playing at home.

2. Winning Kickers are worth 33% more points – When a team wins the game, their placekicker will average 9.6 points while the losing kicker will average 6.5 points per game. This bumps up slightly more with winning kickers who are playing on the road who had the highest average – 9.8 points per game. And the worst kickers were those on the road in a losing effort since they only averaged 6.4 points per game. Looking for a kicker? Grab one that you feel strongly will win the game and especially if the kicker plays on the road. Holds true every year.

3. A Defense That Wins is Worth Twice as much a Losing Defense – There is statistically almost zero difference between what a defense does at home and away. Consider this season through four weeks for sacks (133 home versus 135 away), turnovers (99 home versus 101 away) and overall standard fantasy points (429 home versus 395 away). But for the defense on the winning team, the differences are pronounced. Suddenly it’s 135 to 65 turnovers in favor of the winners.

While home teams had 135 sacks against 133 for road defenses, winning defenses recorded 161 sacks against the 107 by the losing teams. Winning teams scored 19 touchdowns via defense and special teams compared to only seven by losing clubs. Put it all together and in standard fantasy points (sacks + 2 point turnovers + 6 point touchdowns) so far there’s been 545 fantasy points generated by winning defenses but only 279 by the losing teams. Almost exactly twice as many.

When you are searching for a one week replacement for your starters who are on bye, consider the above. Those average tight ends left on your waiver wire are much more likely to have a good game at home than on the road. When you are looking for a kicker, just take one that you feel the most strongly that his team will win the game. No need to over think it – just get a winning kicker.

Lastly, defenses score fantasy points based on the talent of their players and strength of their scheme, not matchup and not where it is played. That means a decent replacement is going to be hard to find now so lower your expectations a bit and find a defense from a game they will win.

And don’t forget – the waiver wire is not just to replace your bye week players. Churn that roster weekly with a constant eye for improvement and you’ll glide through the bye weeks without a bump.

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