It is pretty rare to draft a team in a regular re-draft format, and carry almost the entire lineup throughout the season.  That is, rare if you are an active owner like I am.  I usually churn my roster early and often.  But I have noticed that my best teams are usually the ones that I am not compelled to drop any of my players.  Better draft, less need to shake up the roster.

My best team this year of my 4 redraft leagues still has basically the same roster as it did on draft day.  And the really amazing part is that the team I am speaking of was my first draft of the season, which took place before training camp even opened.  I remember when I finshed the draft, I felt really good about it.  No doubts.  It was rock solid.

But as the preseason unfolded, I remember being less and less in love with this first draft.  By the time the season started I had serious questions.  I had drafted Knowshon Moreno and Pierre Thomas when their stock was at its highest, and neither looked to be in a great spot as the season began.   Miles Austin had not succeeded in securing a starting spot with the Cowboys.  Rashard Mendenhall looked like a mess. 

But lo and behold my team sprang out of the gate at 2-0.  Nate Burleson gave me 20 points in week one.  Julius Jones put forth a good effort.  And my WR depth with Devery Henderson and Garcon looked like it would be sufficient even without a contribution from Miles Austin.  I was confident I was going to be in the mix after week 2.  Then the losses.

Suddenly I found myself in a tragic pattern.  I turned into the the team that everybody has their best week of the season against.  And at week 11, with the second most points in my league, I find myself at 3-7 and clinging to a final playoff seed based on total points. 

I have a 2 point lead on The Fantasy Assassins for that last playoff spot.  This is the last regular season game in that league.  And while I have some pretty good fortune being able to start 3 good running backs for the week (Moreno, Mendenhall, Pierre Thomas) all who seem to be set up very nicely, I am in a quandry with my WR3 spot.  I have Derrick Mason, Miles Austin, or Nate Burleson. 

Now, on any given week up until this point in time I would not sweat this decision much.  These guys have all put up good total numbers for the season.  But they also combined for 7 catches between them last week.  To say I am gun-shy to punch in any of their names would be an understatement.  I have three top 23 receivers to choose from for one roster spot, and I don’t trust any of them.  Ain’t that a kick in the pants?

Well, not as much of a kick in the pants as having the 2nd most points in the league and 3-7.

None of my WRs has a match-up that looks good at all in my opinion.  The best match-up appears to be Burleson against the Vikings.  If you read my column “Commentary From the Edge” you are aware of my feelings toward Burleson after his goose-egg last week.  When he got “Cromartie’d” last week , he put me in this spot of desperation.  Lot’s of “Nate hate.”

But he seems my only option.  Mason against the Colts I don’t care much for.  Austin against the #1 rated team against the pass, now being double covered and stats have fallen off the cliff.  Or Burleson against his former team on the fast turf, in a game the Seahawks figure to fall behind in early.  Do I have any other choice than to roll with this guy?  I just don’t think so.  

It’s like taking a bootie call from the beeyatch that cheated on you.  You don’t want to do it, but man, when it was good it was SOOOOOOO good.  Okay, maybe just once more.  Come on over Burleson.  I’m punching your name in.

At least, that is what I am saying on Friday.  We’ll see how the Burleson magical mystery tour looks to me with Sunday morning coming down.

Lack of patience is one of the hardest things to conquer in fantasy football.  That is especially true in a dynasty league.  Project players can take years to pan out.  And the investment in a roster spot, (even in a large 20 player roster league like I play in) is crucial to future success.

For instance I have spent the last two years waiting for Jerious Norwood to become a start-able player.  Or even a spot-startable player.  The first hit came when Michael Turner was signed by Atlanta.  At that point it was obvious Norwood would be limited, at least until he escaped his contract and was able to hit the open market.  But I held Norwood.  Running backs are horded mercilessly in all leagues.  I remained patient. 

 But now that he is on the verge of potential free agency, he can’t stay on the field due to injuries.  This is a classic case.  With the season half over, Norwood’s window of opportunity is closing fast.  I dumped him on the waiver wire this week when he became the most expendable player on my team.  It seems likely to me now that Norwood won’t command major free agent interest, and will probably settle for a moderate contract doing just what he has been doing.  I’m officially giving up on Norwood.  It is like having a pebble removed from my shoe.  

On the other hand I haven’t even considered dropping Leon Washington.  Leon has already proven his fantasy worth, and one would think his best days might still be ahead of him.  In any case he is not a droppable player in dynasty format, unless rosters are very short.  Leon Washington has earned my patience.

I tried to acquire Mike Thomas on waivers this week but I was a week late.  People finally took notice and he was snatched up well before my pick at 11.  Not really a tragedy for me as right now I am stacked at WR, but I definitely wanted him on my roster.  This is one of those guys that has caught my eye several weeks ago, and I actually grabbed him off waivers in a couple of my re-draft leagues to cover for week 8 byes.  This guy passes the “eyeball” test.  Watch him play.  Ideal size for the slot.  Good hands.  And good with the ball in his hands.  He just looks like a player to me.  Too bad I had so much patience in regard to grabbing him off waivers.  Wow, this blade has two edges.

I traded for Josh Morgan in a multiple player trade.  I essentially gave Lendale White for Morgan in the trade.  Crabtree coming to town and grabbing all the targets was the thing that pushed the Morgan owner over the edge.  He lost patience with Morgan at the exact same time I ran out of patience for White.  That is how trades happen.

Lendale White is in about the same spot as Norwood.  His window is closing fast and the Titans don’t figure to prop it up.  I had no problem making this trade.  All I have to do is wait for Isaac Bruce to be dragged kicking and screaming off the field and my patience will be rewarded. 

Either that or Lendale White revives his career a la’ Cedric Benson, and the 49ers hit the free agent market for another wide receiver this off-season.  Norwood comes back the same week  Turner gets injured, takes over as primary carrier and tears it up down the stretch, and Leon Washington is never heard from again.  And Mike Thomas kicks my ass in week 13 when I need a win to make the playoffs after a 4 game losing streak.   I’ve seen that movie too.

I got a chuckle when I read that Cowboys COO Stephen Jones said he’d “be surprised” if there are any more deals in mid-season after inking DeMarcus Ware to an extension.   The statement may have been in reference to Miles Austin, who is on a one year tender.

“Some of the biggest mistakes that are ever made are when you pay a guy off of one year,” said Jones.

True.  And some of the biggest mistakes are when you pay a guy based off of one ininspiring career.  Like say, Roy E. Williams. 

Oh what a spot the Cowboys are in now.  On the hook to Williams while the big fish might be getting away.

And that is what I’d like to talk about a bit.  No, not blowing millions on average talent, but  Miles Austin’s dynasty prospects.  Because let’s face it, if he comes anywhere close to what he has done over the last two games, he is going to get a big bag of cash. But will Jerry Jones be the one to stomach writing that check?  When he could have got him so much cheaper the year before? 

I’m not too worried about all of that just yet, but it is something to factor in to his value going forward.  The unknown.  I mean, we have see with Steve Smith (formerly known as  ”the good” Steve Smith) the tragedy that happens to stats when your QB is a stiff.  Which reminds me, I wonder if T.O. has a picture of Romo under his pillow that he can cry on every night.  “…sniff…that used to be my quarterback..sniff”  

That being said, I’m sold on Austin. (that’s for the 2-3 of you that haven’t heard that yet)  The guy has been targeted 22 times over his last two games.  If he can stay on the field I think he will be gold.

Another guy I was banking on was Johnny Knox, who I managed to acquire in most of my leagues as a free agent.  But it seems to me that the Bears are making a real effort to make Hester the lead receiver, so Knox will probably have to do more with less going forward.  Just like the weather, I am cooling on his prospects to make a serious impact on a regular basis this season.  I did trade him in my dynasty league for Tashard Choice last week, somehow sensing I suppose that I was about to lose Leon Washington for the season.

Tashard Choice is a guy that I wanted to own in dynasty.  I have seen what I need to see.  I’m not sure how he is going to gain the proper opportunity to fulfill his potential, but I am sold on the player, if not the situation.  I am much more interested in the Dallas passing game in the immediate future.   And that is because the team is more interested in the passing game.  They could run all over about any team in the league, but they continue to be obsessed with letting Romo rip it. 

Choice seemed to be the forgotten man if last week was any indication, so I have no immediate hopes for anything big, but with Barber still dinged, and Jones so breakable, we could see Choice shoulder the load at some point in the future both this season and beyond.  I think he is the most complete back they have, and the only one that can stay healthy.  Logic tells me that at some point the lions share of the carries will be his.  When that may be is anybody’s guess.   But my gut feeling is that is where we are headed.    

 To me, he is absolutely the safest long-term investment of the Dallas trio.  Unfortunately, unless injury does it for us, we will have a hard time figuring out this mess in the Dallas back-field for this season.  They have all but abandoned the run anyway so the production just isn’t there.   And that is why I am so pumped about Miles Austin.  He gives them exactly what they want.  Hopefully he will give the 3 fantasy teams I own him in exactly what they need. 

Then next summer Mr. Jones can drive his Brinks truck to Austin, and pay for what Miles needs.

And they all lived happily ever after.

Bye weeks are in full swing now, and some of the best teams (with consequently the best players) are taking the week off.  This is the point in the season where team depth is the most critical.  Hopefully you have positioned yourself well for the twists and turns of the season.  I play in large roster leagues, so there is little to no help to be found on the waiver wire, unless you are in need for a kicker or defense.  Lots of jockeying of those positions because so few are willing to give up a roster spot for reserve defenses and kickers.  So I have managed to upgrade in those areas.

I try when possible to get kickers and defenses on my roster that are done with their bye weeks early, so I don’t have to worry about those positions from here on out.  The Saints defense was dropped in one of my leagues before their bye and I stepped up a relatively sizeable bid to get them.  Having a defense that projects to be top 5 or so for the rest of the season, and already has their bye out of the way, I like.

There are a few players (several actually) spread out through my rosters that make me nervous this week, and a few of my big-time receivers are bringing the most stress.

Andre Johnson:  One of the first rules you learn when you start playing fantasy football is:  Always start your studs.  I’m not so sure that applies like it used to, but it is a credo that I generally follow.  I mean, it just feels wrong to draft a guy in the first round, and then make him a healthy scratch on your fantasy team.  But if there was ever a week to break that rule, this seems like the week.  The Bengals are still pitching a shutout against opposing number 1 receivers.  Is Johnson awesome enough to overcome the Bengals brutality?  By a strange quirk of fate, I have been on the losing end of the Bengals cruelty every week this season.  Nothing is more depressing than a 2 point effort from your stud receiver. 

The really weird part about Andre Johnson this season is that he has had his two huge games on the road against lesser defenses (Titans/Cards) and struggled mightily at home against the Jets and Raiders, and also had a below average game against the Jaguars, who were in turn torched by Nate Burleson last week.

The evidence is conflicting here with Johnsons two huge games on the road, but the trend against better passing defenses such as the Bengals would seem to trump.  Bottom line.  I might still start him, but if I do so I realize that I am making what could be a huge mistake in trying to buck a trend with a red-hot cornerback.  My advice is to look at your match-ups and see if you don’t have something better.  I for one am tired of getting burned by the Bengals.

Greg Jennings:  Paging Mr. Jennings!  Paging Mr. Jennings!  Wow, what an early season nose-dive.  The bye week came as a relief as I didn’t have to punch in Jenning’s name for one week.  But, as luck would have it, the schedule makers have blessed us with a Lions sighting for week 6, and Jennings owners are partying in the streets with excitement.  Why then, do I still have an uneasy feeling?  I’m sure it’s nothing.  I didn’t draft Jennings to bench him against the division door-mat.  Heck, that is one of the reasons I drafted him in the first place.  So Mr. Jennings, here we are.  You are back in my lineup after your amazing week 4 goose-egg.  Let’s see what ya got! 

Don’t make me beg, because I will.  And it’s not pretty.

Dwayne Bowe:    Yeah, I’m still starting Bowe.  For the most part anyway.  Not too thrilled about it.  Listening to the trade rumors and thinking that might save his fantasy season.  He is still out of favor with the coaching staff apparently, and not getting enough opportunities to live up to his potential.  He did get 10 targets last week, which almost matched his season total to that point, so maybe things are moving in the right direction.  It is hard to make anything out of 5 targets a week, and that unfortunately may be the norm.  

This week may tell us something, and if indeed the Chiefs are shopping him before the deadline, it would be in their best interest to make sure he has a big day Sunday.  I am playing  Bowe this week.  We’ll see after that.

During the summer past, I frequented a couple of casinos from time to time.  At one casino I had really good luck for the most part.  At the other casino, I couldn’t win to save my life.  Oh, there were brief moments where I would start to dent their chip trays, but those were regularly followed by horrible losing streaks. 

After about 6 losing trips in succession to the “bad casino”, I declared at the blackjack table that if I walked away a loser today, I will rip my players card to shreds and never darken the doorway of this den of de-capalization again!  Well, I didn’t say it exactly like that, but the message was clear.  I was making my last stand.  I lost. 

I tipped the dealer the two dollar chips I had left, and proclaimed again that I wouldn’t be back. 

About two weeks later I went to the casino I had won at, and I won.  I won in ridiculous ways.  Drawing 5 card 21’s.  Doubling down, getting dealt a 3 and winning anyway.  My luck was at full boil.  I walked out the door with their money.  A robber without a gun. 

When I got in my car to head home I had a crazy idea. I thought, hey I’m ahead.  I’m feeling lucky.  Maybe I should go back to that saw-dust clip-joint casino where I have lost every time right now while I am hot.  Yes, now is the time.  So despite my public proclamation, just weeks earlier, which was made in a feeble attempt to force myself away from the losing casino for good, I was going back.  But I had a plan.  

I was not going to sit there and let them chip away at my days profit.  I was going to walk in and put $100 on blackjack.  If it lost, I was to walk directly out the door.  If it won I was going to let it ride.  If that won I would put $200 in my pocket and let the other $200 ride.  If I won that I walk out with $500 profit.  And that is exactly what I did.  I walked in to a nearly empty game pit, just one slumped over player who had taken a beating by the way he looked, and the sneers of the pit boss who had been within ear-shot of my proclamation.  A dealer asked “what did that guy say” in a sarcastic tone.  I looked directly at him, gave him a smug smile a nod and a knowing wink.  Because I knew it was my day today.  I could feel it.  It was.  I dropped their jaws.  Loser turned winner. 

It was one of the most awesome moments in my life.  I had a gut instinct.  I had a plan.  The plan worked.  I haven’t been back to that casino since.  Nice and tidy. 

The reality is that I got really really lucky.  But I struck when the iron was hot.  And I listened to that little voice in my head that was trying to push me in the right direction.  I followed my instincts.  If only I could do this in every situation in my life every day.  If only I would have listened to that voice that said “psst, start Mendenhall this week.”   

Yeah, I drafted Mendenhall on both of my WCOFF teams, started in neither.  Julius Jones 5 points were not quite as satisfying as Mendenhall’s 33 would have been. 

But the good news is that Rashard Mendenhall appears to be turning into a football player right before our eyes. That is what my eyeballs and that “little voice” are telling me.  This is the same “little voice” that told me to draft him even though he still looked like a mess at the end of pre-season.  I have to tell you, I was really starting to wonder if I had blown those picks.  But the “little voice” was telling me not to even think about turning him loose. 

Mendenhall was part of my “draft stud receivers and pile up as many bodies at running back as you can” strategy.  And amazingly enough the results have been good despite the fact that my stud receivers haven’t really lived up to their billing.  Over the last few weeks I have seen many of my draft seedlings start to sprout.  Tashard Choice, Jerome Harrison, Mendenhall, Pierre Thomas, Moreno.  While Julius Jones and Cedric Benson have been anchoring my teams at running back to this point, my depth has erupted.  Patience rewarded.  Apparently.  

I have that same feeling I had before I walked into that saw-dust casino.  My teams have been hanging in there pretty well even with holes at running back.  Now that those might have magically filled, it’s ON now! 

But as with everything in life, with every solution comes a problem.  It just struck me.  Now I have to figure out which one of these guys I start every week. 

Oh crap.