1. Switch to Win-Now Mode
If your club is 0-3, it’s time to switch to win-now mode. Under the most optimistic of scenarios, you’ll need to get your team to a .500 record to earn a wild card. In most leagues, that means going 7-3 for the rest of the season. The only game that matters is Week 4. Forget all the talk about strength of schedule for the rest of the season, who has easy matchups in the playoffs, and whether a player is injury-prone. You need laser-beam focus on Week 4. If that means trading Kurt Warner (bye this week) for Jay Cutler (Detroit this week) and a prospect, so be it.

2. Trade Away Your Depth
Whereas your goal at the start of the season was to build the best roster, your goal now needs to be to field the absolute best starting lineup. Depth is no longer a luxury you can afford. Identify your team’s deepest position and use it as leverage to build the ultimate starting lineup. For example, if your backfield has DeAngelo Williams, Marion Barber, Willis McGahee and Darren Sproles, consider packaging two of these RBs (Williams and Sproles, perhaps) for an elite-level WR like Larry Fitzgerald or Randy Moss. What you lose in depth, you’ll gain in frontline power. You’ll put yourself at risk for injury, but that’s a risk you’re going to have to be willing to take.

3. Go on a Youth Movement
After you’ve unloaded your depth of established players, fill out your roster with promising young backups. Guys like James Davis have little value now but they could see their value skyrocket later on. Every year backups step in for veterans who have gotten injured or worn down and emerge as legit fantasy starters. If it happens with one of your guys, you’ll have another bargaining chip in your pocket you can parlay into an even better starting lineup.

4. Mind the Byes
With less depth, you’ll inevitably run into challenges with bad matchups and bye weeks. It’s critical to think ahead. For example let’s assume your top RB has a bye in Week 7; you need start planning for it in Week 5. Think about making a trade or picking up a player off the wire who has a good matchup. You know Tampa has a poor run defense. New England plays Tampa in Week 7. Grab Fred Taylor (or even Kevin Faulk) off the wire for a one-week plug and play.

5. Take Chances
You’re 0-3. You’re already the butt of all the jokes on your league’s message board. What do you have to lose? Last year when Willie Parker and Rashard Mendenhall went down with an injury, Mewelde Moore was the top waiver wire pickup in almost every fantasy league. I was fortunate enough to grab him but my team was 4-0 at that point. A 1-3 team in my league was desperate for RB help—and in win-now mode. The team offered me Devin Hester, who was coming off two straight games with a touchdown, for Moore. It was a risky move for the 1-3 team, trading a hot player for a RB who would likely only get two or three starts. I pounced. It worked out for that owner (and not so well for me). Moore carried the team to two straight victories and back into playoff contention.

I’m a Packer fan and resident of the Twin Cities area in Minnesota. As you can imagine, I watched the circus that took place Tuesday with great interest. I hold no grudge against Favre. Why should I? The Packers still have a better QB than the Vikings—just as they have for the last decade and a half. Some things never change.

But this isn’t a blog entry about the Packers vs. the Purple. It’s a blog entry about Favre the fantasy quarterback. I’m quite surprised that the fantasy pundits as a whole are so down on #4. When the news broke, I figured most would have Favre ranked somewhere between 12-15 in the fantasy QBs hierarchy. Instead most sites, project Favre outside the top 20, below the likes of Jake Delhomme and Chad Pennington.

Call me a Favre apologist, but I don’t get it. He may be indecisive but irrelevant he’s not. Here’s why I believe at a minimum Favre will be an average to above average fantasy contributor this season.

He’s Thrown for 50 TDs the Last Two Seasons

Favre is one of seven QBs who have thrown for 50 or more TDs over the last two years. In 2007, Favre posted 4,155 yards and 28 touchdowns and 15 interceptions. He was one of only six QBs to average over 20 fantasy points that year. It was his 16^th season in Green Bay. And his 16^th season in the West Coast Offense.

Following that impressive season, he was traded to the Jets, where he was forced to learn an entirely new offensive system with new terminology, new players and new coaches. Despite the steep learning curve, he started the year throwing 15 touchdowns in his first seven games. He led the Jets to an 8-3 record. There was talk of him being an MVP contender. This was a mere nine months ago. And you’re telling me he went from MVP contender to fantasy pretender just like that?

I know, I know, the biceps injury. For the first time in his career, Favre suffered an injury that greatly limited his accuracy and arm strength. His numbers suffered and he finished with just two touchdowns in the last five games.

The Best Surgeon in the World Says His Arm is Good to Go

Favre went under the knife in May. Dr. James Andrews performed the surgery to repair his bicep. The MRI also showed a slight tear in his rotator cuff. However, Andrews told Favre he’s had the injury for quite some time and it hasn’t hampered him because it had calcified. Andrews believes it won’t be an issue.

True to form, Favre reportedly was humming passes during a Vikings practice on Wednesday and actually through a ball that punched a hole in a wall. Sounds like vintage Favre to me.

He’s Back in the Offense that Made him a 3-time MVP

The Minnesota offense is practically a carbon copy of the one he ran in Green Bay. He may have missed training camp but it won’t take him long to get on the same page as his teammates. The fact is he probably understood the offense better than Sage Rosenfels and Tarvaris Jackson the second he stepped on the practice field in Eden Prairie.

The Weapons Around Favre are Special

With no apologies to Dorsey Levens or Ahman Green, Adrian Peterson is easily the best running back Favre’s ever had in the huddle with him. Stopping AP will continue to be every opposing defense’s highest priority. That will make Favre’s job easier. Minnesota’s receivers are underrated. Bernard Berrian had a good season last year despite poor QB play. Percy Harvin is by most accounts the most explosive wideout the team has had since Randy Moss. Visanthe Shiancoe is an up-and-coming TE, probably the best Favre has had since Mark Chmura. Believe me, he’s had worse in Green Bay (do the names Bill Schroeder and Derrick Mayes ring a bell?) and turned in good fantasy stats.

The Minnesota Schedule is an Absolute Cake Walk

In order of appearance the Vikings will face: Cleveland, Detroit, San Francisco, Green Bay, St. Louis, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Green Bay, BYE, Detroit, Seattle, Chicago, Arizona, Cincinnati, Carolina and Chicago. Aside from a tough couple weeks in the middle, Favre’s schedule is an asset not a liability.

By no means am I suggesting you should reach for Favre on draft day and count on him being your every-week starter. However, I think he’s worth a roll of the dice after the top 10-12 QBs come off the board. Pair him with a guy like Matt Schaub, Matt Hasselbeck or Matt Ryan and you won’t be sorry when he puts up 20-25 TDs and 3,700 yards.

One of the keys to identifying a good fantasy sleeper is being able to spot ineptitude among the current NFL starters. If a poor or washed up player sits atop the depth chart, chances are the coaching staff will give him the hook sooner or later. That benching will open a window of opportunity for another player—sometimes that’s all it takes for a backup to become a stud. With that in mind, here’s a look at the five worst starting RBs in the NFL today.

 1. Cedric Benson, Bengals

No RB is more deserving of this dubious distinction. Benson was drafted in 2005 and has done absolutely nothing to inspire confidence. Although he seems to have turned the corner from a behavior and attitude perspective, he has never consistently delivered on the field. His biggest problems are he lacks vision and goes down too easy after the first contact. Anyone who points out Benson’s two 100-yard games at the end of 2008 as evidence of his ability is putting lipstick on a pig. Those games came against the Chiefs and Browns. The reality is Benson averaged just 3.5 yards per carry and scored only two touchdowns in 2008.

Who will take his job: Bernard Scott or Kenny Watson

2. Tim Hightower, Cardinals

Any starting RB who averages less than 3.0 yards per carry has to make this list. What’s more incredible is Hightower averaged less than 2.0 yards per carry in seven games. Seven!? Seriously, all you need to do to get two yards is run into the back of your biggest offensive lineman and fall forward. Even more startling is that the Cardinals had the best passing attack in the NFL last year. Teams weren’t respecting the running game yet Hightower still couldn’t get it done. Rookie or not, it tells me this guy doesn’t have the instinct to make it as a featured RB. When the team finally went back to Edgerrin James, the running game picked up. Go figure. 

Who will take his job: Beanie Wells

 3. Julius Jones, Seahawks

Speaking of Edgerrin James. I don’t know why the Seahawks haven’t taken a look at him because their current RB corps is full of stiffs. With the offseason departure of Maurice Morris, the starting position has been handed to Julius Jones. It’s a role in which Jones has disappointed before. In his last 33 games, Jones has surpassed 17 carries just twice and exceeded 80 yards rushing just three times. Fantasy owners spending a pick on Jones also risk getting minimal production on the receiving and touchdown fronts. He’s only scored four touchdowns in the last two years and hasn’t had more than 30 yards receiving in a game since Week 1 of the 2006 season. Multi-dimensional Jones is not.

Who will take his job: T.J. Duckett or Justin Forsett

4. Willis McGahee, Ravens

McGahee isn’t as good as he was 2-3 years ago and 2-3 years ago he wasn’t as good as you think. He’s never played a full 16-game season. Since 2005, McGahee has failed to score more than seven touchdowns in a season. In 2008, he started eight games and averaged just 38 yards rushing in those starts. Truth be told, he’s actually a much more effective runner coming off the bench as a change of pace. In the five games he didn’t start but received a carry in 2008, he averaged 73.4 yards rushing. Don’t be surprised if McGahee loses the battle for Baltimore’s starting role during the preseason. 

Who will take his job: Ray Rice or LeRon McClain

 5. Reggie Bush, Saints

It’s not that Bush isn’t talented; it’s that he’s miscast. Bush is a tremendously effective weapon as a receiver, change of pace RB and punt/kick returner. As a starting RB? Not so much. For those who think Bush’s failures as a starter are exaggerated, consider the numbers. In 27 career starts, Bush has just one 100-yard game. Compare that to the 15 games out of those 27 in which he’s had 40 or fewer rushing yards. Bush’s name may appear atop the Saints depth chart right now but before long Pierre Thomas will get the nod.

Who will take his job: Pierre Thomas

What’s your take? Got a beef with someone I put on this list? Does someone else belong here instead? Post your comments below. 

If you haven’t read about the Curse of 370, you’ll surely come across it in the coming weeks as fantasy experts debate about the draft position of Michael Turner. According to the Curse of 370, when running backs are overworked to the extent of carrying the ball 370 or more times in one season, they will experience a marked drop in production the following year. Indeed, RBs who fit this category have historically seen about a 35% drop in rushing yards the following season:

Jamal Anderson
410 carries in 1998 . . . blew out knee in 1999

Terrell Davis
392 carries in 1998 . . . blew out knee in 1999

Eddie George
403 carries in 2000 . . . yardage and yards per carry plummeted in 2001

Edgerrin James
387 carries in 2000 . . . blew out knee in 2001

Larry Johnson
416 carries in 2006 . . . broke foot in 2007

Doesn’t look too promising for Michael Turner, who carried the rock 376 times in 2008, does it?

It’s true that the bell would seem to be tolling for the Falcons stud RB. But let’s examine the cases of George, Anderson, Davis, James and Johnson more closely, shall we? Prior to their respective declines, all five of the aforementioned not only had been worn down by 370+ carries, they had also been worn down by a tremendous workload in the seasons prior:

Anderson – 600 touches in 1996-1997

Davis – 792 touches in 1996-1997

George – 752 touches in 1998-1999

James – 431 touches in 1999

Johnson – 487 touches in 2004-2005

Turner on the other hand had just 71 carries in 2007 and 80 carries in 2006 while backing up LaDainian Tomlinson. Oh, and speaking of Tomlinson, LT had 372 carries in 2002 and followed it up with the season in which he delivered the most all-purpose yardage of his career (2,370 yards).

The bottom line is fears about Turner’s workload are overblown. He’s young. He’s still fresh. And he plays on a team with an offense that’s clearly on the rise. Fantasy owners should have no reservations about hitching their wagons to this classic workhorse RB in 2009.

Turner is that rare player who is not only consistent (produces every game) he’s also explosive (delivers games with 2+ touchdowns and/or 200 yards). In that regard, he may even be a better pick than Adrian Peterson, who’s proven very capable of disappearing during games over his first two seasons.

What do you think? Do you fear the Curse of 370 or will Turner escape it?

NFL training camps are just around the corner. Like clockwork, reports about Player A being in “the best shape of his career” and Player B “looking faster and stronger than ever,” have begun to pepper the Internet.

I always shudder when I read player evaluations like these. On one hand, I appreciate the insight. On the other hand, these types of glowing reports have burned me in the past. Out of curiosity, I ran a quick Google search on players who received similar praise last year. Here are some of interesting (and revealing) quotes I pulled from those search engine results:

 “Despite having been injury-prone in recent years, Rudi Johnson came to Bengals camp in probably the best shape of his life.”

- ESPN.com’s John Clayton, August 2008

Reality check: Johnson was cut at the end of training camp, later signed with Detroit, and was by all measures a fantasy bust.

 “We hear [Arizona] starting RB Edgerrin James couldn’t have looked in better shape for what figures to be another 20- to 25-carries-per-game workload this coming season.”

-Pro Football Weekly, July 2008

Reality check: James lost his starting job and only scored three rushing touchdowns in 2008.

“[Fred] Taylor is one of the few backs who has actually gotten better with age. He is in the best shape of his career.”

- SportingNews.com, July 2008

Reality check: Taylor delivered just 556 yards rushing—his worst production in years.

 “Ricky Williams is in top shape and looked every bit the best player on the field. He ran with authority, he showed quickness, and he never let himself shift out of top gear.”

- Miami Herald, July 2008

Reality check: One of the more over-hyped players entering the 2008 season, Williams saw his fantasy stock skyrocket but only amassed 659 rushing yards.

Hindsight may be 20/20, but there’s still a lesson to be learned. And it’s don’t be so quick to drink the Kool-Aid.

Giving too much credence to secondhand accounts of how a player looks when they report to camp, how much faster they seem to be, how well they’re moving the pile, or even how much weight they’ve gained or lost is probably a mistake. Think twice before immediately giving players a huge boost in your rankings based on this type of information. Instead, treat these reports as just one piece of the puzzle–and not a corner piece.

In typical Internet fashion, the news is coming even earlier this year. Several players are already being showered with praise:

“This year I feel a whole lot better than I did at this time last year. I feel stronger and a little faster and I just feel in better shape.”

-Ronnie Brown, CBSSports.com, June 2009

 “[At minicamp], LenDale White looked much more tone and in shape than in previous years.”

-Nashville City Paper, May 2009

 “People in the organization who have been around since Braylon Edwards was drafted with the third-overall pick of the 2005 draft say he’s in the best shape physically and, perhaps most importantly, mentally he’s been in the last four years.”

- Orange and Brown Report (OBR.com), June 2009

What’s your take? How much stock do you put into accounts of players reporting to camp in “the best shape of their life”?