We’ll take a break from The Huddle 180 and do a quick look ahead to tomorrow’s games.  Here’s a few random things I’m looking for in each game:

GB @ STL

If Ryan Grant is going to get back to almost-stud status, this should be the game for him.  We’re also waiting for Aaron Rodgers to “break out” this season, but it’ll likely be Grant that has the potential to dominate in this one.

KCC @ PHI

I’d like to talk about Donovan McNabb, Brian Westbrook or maybe even Dwayne Bowe, but I just can’t ignore Michael Vick’s return to the NFL field.  He’ll have to shake off a ton of rust, but this one should be over early and Vick may be given the shot at some carries and tosses.

ATL @ NEP

I’m calling the upset here; Welker is still gimpy and is a GTS.  His replacement, Julian Edelman, is also listed as questionable.  Tom Brady really missed his security blanket last week and will be missing it even more this week.  The Falcons will pressure Brady and their offense is good enough to pick apart the rather average, Mayo-less Patriot defense.

CLE @ BAL

I’m looking at this matchup to see if Joe Flacco can actually produce as a fantasy QB week to week.  He’s been turned loose, and should throw for at least 2 scores against a real bad Brown D.   If he reverts to the rookie Flacco (which isn’t horrible, just not a fantasy QB), and only goes for 180-200 yards and one score, I would be nervous to start him weekly.

WAS @ DET

Upset #2 here.  I don’t get why the Redskins are getting nearly a TD on the road.  Yes, I realize the Lions are horrible and won 0 games last season, but that was last season and they had a 50% turn-over on their roster entering this season.  Not the same team.  Sorry Skin fans, your team is not very good.  The Lions will feed Kevin Smith the ball and will win by a field goal.  So, what am I looking for here?  A Lion victory.

JAC @ HOU

I’m waiting for Steve Slaton to shake the fumblitis bug.  If he can’t, he’ll drop down to a #2 fantasy RB.  Of course, if I were not an owner, I’d be knocking on the Slaton owner’s door to look for a trade.  Slaton tore up the Jag D last season, and should do the same here this time around.

SFO @ MIN

Really, I’m just looking to see how many yards Adrian Peterson has and how many times Patrick Willis can chase Peterson down for tackles.

PIT @ CIN

I’m looking for Willie Parker to shake his “I can’t play on the road” thing and have at least 80 yards and a score against the Bengal defense.  Also looking to see if Bengal DE Antwan Odom can chase down Big Ben for another sack.

NYG @ TBB

I’m pretty sure the Giants will extend their dominance on the road against a real average Buc squad.  Brandon Jacobs should have a field day and will likely give way to Ahmad Bradshaw, who could come up with 50-60 yards of his own.

CHI @ SEA

As a Bear homer, I’m obviously hoping for a win, but I’m actually really interested to see what WR(s) Jay Cutler decides to lock on to against the Seahawk secondary.  Johnny Knox has kinda come out of nowhere to be the go-to guy, but we know Devin Hester has plenty of skills and Earl Bennett and Cutler have a long-standing relationship.

NO @ BUF

Very interested to see how many WRs, TEs and random RBs Drew Brees can pass to on Sunday.  With both Mike Bell and Pierre Thomas with injury issues, Brees may pass the ball 50 times.

TEN @ NYJ

It’s gonna be interesting to see what Mark Sanchez does against a real defense.  Yeah, the Titan D isn’t the same without Albert Haynesworth, but they’re still far better than the Texans or Patriots on the defensive side of the football.  The rookie will come back down to Earth this week and will look like a rookie.

DEN @ OAK

There could be double-digit turnovers in this game.  What was once a pair of proud franchises and a shoo-in for a wild west shootout now looks like a laugher.  The Broncos are 2-0 but really aren’t that good.  The Raiders look good in spells (especially in their opener) and could easily control this game.

MIA @ SDC

It’ll be strange to see no sign of #21 for the Chargers.  Can Darren Sproles carry the load?  I think the Bolts will give the Dolphins a heavy dose of Antonio Gates.  Can the Fins shake off a disappointing Week 2 loss?

IND @ ARI

Honestly, I’m just looking to see how many points can be scored in this game, most of which will likely be through the air.  2 or 3 passing TDs per team?  No problem.  The Colts pass D is currently tops in the NFL, but honestly, look who they’ve faced to start the season.

CAR @ DAL

So Jerrah Jone’s megalopolis is open for business and the hype has settled a little.  Time to break it in a little more with a big win against a real struggling Panther squad.   Maybe it’s wishful thinking, but I could see DeAngelo Williams with over 100 rushing yards and close to 50 receiving yards in this one.  And of course, the real burning question is:  will the Cowboys ever force a turnover?

When it comes to drafting offense you already know that the difference between a running back and a fullback is a very big factor.  Just imagine if the Falcons decided to move Michael Turner to fullback to be the lead blocker for Jerious Norwood.  You would immediately not just move Turner down your draft board but probably completely off of it.  Also imagine if Randy Moss ended up on a run first team with a below average quarterback (yeah I know he was already in Oakland) you would have to move him down your draft board.  Well when it comes to IDP you also need to understand the differences not only in postions but also how particular schemes affect those positions.  Below you will find an explanaiton of the different schemes run by NFL teams and how those schemes affect particular positions.

4-3 Defense(ATL, CAR, CIN, DET, HOU, JAX, NYG, NO, OAK, PHI, SEA,  TB, TEN, WAS)
The 4-3 which as you can see is used by the majority of teams in the NFL, employs 4 defensive lineman (2 defensive ends (DE) & 2 defensive tackles (DT)), 3 linebackers (SLB, MLB & WLB) & 4 defensive backs (2 cornerbacks (CB), 1 free safety (FS), 1 strong safety (SS)).  Normally in a 4-3 one of the DT’s will play a “2 gap technique” (normally responsible for taking up two or more blockers (usually the center and guard) and stopping the run) while the other DT will play a “1 gap technique” giving them the responsibility of the other guard, stopping the run and rushing the quarterback. The DE’s main responsibility is to pressure the quarterback and get sacks.  Fantasy wise, the MLB (aka MIKE) is usually the linebacker (LB) to target in a 4-3 defense.  They are the “quarterback” of the defense and their focus is to stop the run.  MLB’s that are able to play in the Nickel have the ability to increase their fantasy stats by as much as 10% or more.  The SLB (aka SAM) normally lines up on the tight end, when he is not engaged in blocking or covering the tight end, he may be blitzing the quarterback.  Normally, a SLB has limited tackle opportunities because of his tight end assignment.  A WLB (aka WILL) has more freedom than a SLB.  The WLB has the ability to pursue a running play as well as cover screens and blitz the quarterback thus giving the WLB the chance to make plays (interceptions, force fumbles).  The CB’s main responsibility is simply to cover wide receivers.  How they play in coverage will depend on if they are playing man-to-man or zone.  A FS is the “center fielder” of the defense.  He is responsible for deep coverage in the middle of the field as well as rolling over to help a CB when necessary.  The FS is not usually as active in run support but does have the ability to create interceptions.  A SS is usually a much better scorer from a fantasy perspective than a FS because they are more active in run support but will still have coverage responsibilities.  Another thing to note is that there are times when teams will designate their LB’s as RLB (right side) and LLB (left side) and their responsibilities are tied to what side the TE lines up.  Occasionally, you will find a team that treats their safeties in the same manner depending on the situation at hand.

Tampa 2/Cover 2 (Variant of the 4-3)( BUF, CHI, IND, MIN)
The Cover 2 is a versatile defense that can be implemented with multiple defensive fronts.  Speed is probably the most important facet of the Tampa 2/Cover 2, which is why most players are smaller than their counterparts in other defenses. Compared to other defenses what the Tampa 2/Cover 2 lacks in complexity it makes up for by requiring players to be extremely disciplined due to specific coverage areas that are assigned to each position. The main difference between the Tampa 2 and Cover 2 is that in the Tampa 2 the MLB is responsible for medium to deep middle pass coverage.  This coverage responsibility is the main reason why the WLB will usually outscore the MLB in this defense.  Also safeties in the Tampa 2/Cover 2 usually do not score as well as Safeties in other coverage shells because of their deep coverage responsibilities.

3-4 Defense (ARI, BAL*, CLE, DAL, DEN, GB, KC, MIA, NE*, NYJ, PIT, SD, SF)                        The 3-4 has been gaining some of the popularity back that it had lost over the years.  The Broncos, Packers & Chiefs will all be transitioning to a 3-4 defense this year and under the Parcells regime, Miami made the move to a 3-4 defense last year.  More and more you will see teams that are using multiple looks of 3-4 and 4-3 and that is not an easy transition to make due to the differences in personnel needed for each defense.  The DE’s in a 3-4 are generally larger than their counterparts in the 4-3.  If a team wants to generate a pass rush in a 3-4 set, they will usually have to send one of their outside linebackers (OLB) to help rush the quarterback.  Inside linebackers (ILB) are generally very athletic and stronger to allow them to shed blockers to get to the ball carrier.  A strong point of the 3-4 is its ability to confound the quarterback and the teams passing game.  Conversely, the running game can exploit a 3-4 defense.  That is why it is imperative for nose tackles to be large bodies that can eat up blockers and allow the LB’s to get to the ball carrier. ILB’s in a 3-4 are usually designated on the depth chart as either RILB or LILB and they have similar roles to a MLB & WLB.  Unfortunately, fantasy wise there is no easy answer concerning which ILB spot produces the best.  Stud ILB’s are not easy to come by but your best bet would be to find a RILB playing for a coach from the Bum/Wade Phillips coaching tree (Mike Nolan: DEN & Greg Manusky: SF).  OLB’s in a 3-4 usually garner their stats from sacks and can be very streaky and hard to rely on.  Unless your scoring system is very sack friendly, you should avoid most OLB’s in a 3-4.

* The Baltimore Ravens are really hard to pencil into one predominant scheme because they use multiple fronts probably more then any team in the NFL.  If Terrell Suggs is listed in your league as a DL then that is a good thing and if he is an OLB then that isn’t so good.  If you and your league mates are trying to decide on how to list Suggs you should realize that he played approximately 66% of his snaps last year on the defensive line but to muddy the waters a bit more is the fact that in arbitration Suggs was franchised previously as a LB/DE (he wanted to be tagged as a DE because it paid more and the Ravens wanted to tag him as a LB because the tag price was cheaper).  The New England Patriots also use multiple fronts but this preseason they really showed a bit more 4-3 then most would have expected.

Individual Defensive Player Tackle Opportunity Production or IDP TOP as I like to call it is a metric that I introduced last year and plan on using regularly in my weekly IDP Game Breakdowns (with player ratings).

On the offensive side of the ball there are a bunch of statistics that you can use to help analyze a player.  A couple being targets and catch percentages to help you analyze a WR but on the defensive side of the ball there really aren’t many things outside of raw tackle data for IDP managers to utilize.  Unfortunately, raw tackles don’t really tell the entire story.  IDP TOP is a metric that I sorta stumbled upon when researching the decline in production that Keith Bulluck suffered back in 2007.  Going into 2007 Bulluck was considered a top 5 or better LB by many and that was understandable considering he had five consecutive seasons with over 125 combined tackles.  However, looking at just the raw tackle numbers left Bulluck owners scratching their heads as they  saw his tackle total fall from 143 in 2006 to just 88 in 2007.  Had I been using IDP TOP back then I would have been much more cautious with regards to Bulluck because while his tackle totals were attractive his IDP TOP showed almost double digit decreases for the 2005 & 2006 seasons.  Of course if I would have tried to tell people that Keith Bulluck was going to suffer a fall from grace I would have been labeled a loon.

IDP TOP is far from an end all be all metric but it does have its place in helping to anaylze player production and and expected production.  Also, being able to compare things in an apples to apples way can help with roster decisions too.  In order to help explain IDP TOP a bit more take a look at the following definition and example:

Definition:
IDP TOP measures the performance of a player based on the number of tackle opportunities that they have.  The higher the IDP TOP the better.  Tackle opportunity is currently being defined as the number of rushing attempts plus the number of completions that a defense faces in a game.  Below is an example to help you better understand IDP TOP.

Example:
NY Giants Offense has: 26 rushes and 19 completions for a total of 45 tackle opportunities (TO’s).
New England Patriots LB Tedy Bruschi recorded 5 solo tackles and 3 assists.
TOP for Bruschi on solo tackles is .111 (5 divided by 45)
TOP for Bruschi on assists is .067 (3 divided by 45)
TOP for Bruschi on combined tackles is .178 (8 divided by 45)

Green Bay Packers Offense has: 14 rushes and 19 completions for a total of 33 TO’s.
New York Giants DB Gibril Wilson recorded 5 solo tackles and 3 assists.
TOP for Wilson on solo tackles is .152 (5 divided by 33)
TOP for Wilson on assists is .091 (3 divided by 33)
TOP for Wilson on combined tackles is .242 (8 divided by 33)

In the above example what TOP helps to illustrate is that just looking at the recorded tackles doesn’t tell the entire story.  Both players recorded 5 solo tackles and 3 assists yet Gibril Wilson was approximately 36% more productive then Bruschi was.  If Bruschi had achieved the same TOP as Wilson he would have recorded 7 solo tackles and 4 assists.  It might not seem like much but it surely can make a difference.

Training camps are now in full swing and this is the time of year when speculation abounds.  Much of that speculation is due to injuries suffered by key players during training camp.  Unfortunately for the Philadelphia Eagles they lost last years starting MLB- Stewart Bradley for the year due to an ACL tear.

Bradley, a former 3rd round draft pick from Nebraska will not be easy to replace but the Eagles don’t have to look to far into their past to find a quality replacement.  Look no further than Omar Gaither who was the MLB for the Eagles during the 2007 season.  Yes, that means that Bradley replaced Gaither so many of you are probably wondering why I think that it will be Gaither who takes over the MLB gig and not second year player Joe Mays or newly acquired Matt Wilhelm. Initially, when the Eagles acquired Wilhelm my thought was that he would end up starting at MLB but now that I have had some additional time to think about it I have changed my mind and believe it is Gaither that will win the job.

Let’s not forget that the Eagles defense is complicated.  Sadly, the Eagles do not have Jim Johnson who lost his battle with cancer, to look to for the answer to this question.  Newly promoted Defensive Coordinator Sean McDermott is a Johnson disciple and hopefully will be able to lead the Philly defense thru this difficulty.  The fact that this is a complicated defense can’t be overlooked and is one of the major reasons why I think that Gaither has the inside track to being the starting MLB this year. Like I stated earlier, Gaither was replaced by Bradley at MLB last year but in 2007 the Eagles defense still performed well enough.

Here are some statistics that should help support my opinion.

2007 Eagles defensive ranking statistics (MLB=Gaither)

• 9th in points/game allowed (18.8)
• 7th in rushing yards allowed (1533 yards, 95.8/game)
• 4th in YPC allowed (3.8)
• 9th in rushing TDs allowed (10)
• 6th in rushing 1st downs allowed (80)
• 18th in passing yards allowed (3449)
• 2nd in passing TDs allowed (16)
• 9th in sacks (37)
• 15th in passing 1st downs allowed (177)

It is easy to see that the run defense was very good with Gaither manning the MLB position but that the pass defense needed improving.  For comparisons sake, here are the statistics on how the Eagle defense fared with Bradley at MLB.

2008 Eagles defensive ranking statistics (MLB=Bradley)

• 4th in points/game allowed (18.1)
• 4th in rushing yards allowed (1476 yards, 92.2/game)
• 4th in YPC allowed (3.5)
• 2nd in rushing TDs allowed (7)
• 6th in rushing 1st downs allowed (79)
• 3rd in passing yards allowed (2913)
• 10th in passing TDs allowed (19)
• 3rd in sacks (48)
• 2nd in passing 1st downs allowed (144)

Much of the 2008 improvement came in the form of additions and subtraction with Bradley being one of the major additons.  However, much of the improvement took place in the secondary with the additions of Asante Samuel at CB and Quintin Mikell at SS, coupled with the subtraction of former starting SS-Sean Considine.  Still you can’t argue that Bradley didn’t have a possitive effect on the run defense and defense in general but it should be noted that the defense was still very good while Gaither manned the middle.

Yes, we will proabably still hear about how it is a camp battle and that the 2nd year player, Joe Mays is impressing and that the newly acquired Matt Wilhelm is right in the mix but when it is all said and done don’t be surprised to see Omar Gaither manning the MLB position for the Eagles, again.