Well, before we creep closer to the edge this week, let’s take a look at how Crazy Darin’s Crazy Thoughts panned out in Week 4. Devin Hester got nowhere near 100 yards (in fact, he caught one lonely ball). Tennessee lost AGAIN (now that’s crazy). Big Ben only threw for two scores (thanks alot, Mewelde Moore!). Brandon Jacobs didn’t get outrushed by Ahmad Bradshaw (barely, though!). But at least I hit the nail on the head with Aaron Rodgers out-throwing (but losing to) Brett Favre! One for five. Let’s see if we can’t do better this week, eh?

1. Tony Gonzalez will catch a pair of TDs. The Niners have a solid secondary and Patrick Willis, but Gonzo (in a return to the Bay Area) will find the endzone twice. Is that really crazy or what?

2. Peyton Manning will throw for FOUR touchdowns. Both of the Titan CBs are dinged up (and will likely give it a go) and the Titan pass rush just isn’t the same without big boy Albert Haynesworth.

3. The Panthers will finally win a game. The Skins are bad, the Cats are home, and are coming off a bye. Watch the pair of Panther RBs rush the ball 20+ times apiece and each score at least once.

4. The Ravens D will score a TD. I don’t know why, I just think they will.

5. This week’s Monday Night Football game will suck. The Jets D will quell whatever the Fins throw out there, and the Fins D is good enough to only let Mark Sanchez move his offense down for a pair of TDs. Yawn.

OK folks, we’re going to put Huddle 180 on hiatus for another week, and go with a new feature: 5 Crazy Things. Or perhaps they’re not too crazy, but they likely have never happened, never will again, or you just don’t think is possible.

1. Devin Hester will catch 100+ yards worth of passes. One of our esteemed leaders, David Dorey, actually projects Hester to catch 100 yards and a TD against the Lions this week. I tend to agree. As an aside, if you own Jay Cutler, this is the week they’re going to throw the kitchen sink out there, at least from the passing game side.

2. The Titans will get their first win. Crazy? Well, it’s been 3 weeks and they still have none, so I guess it’s not that crazy. But the Jags should be winless, and just don’t appear to have anything going this season, save Maurice Jones-Drew and Mike Sims-Walker. What, exactly, is up with the two-last-name Jags?

3. Big Ben will throw for 3 TDs. Willie Parker has turf toe and it’s not known whether or not he’ll give it a go. Mewelde Moore, the primary backup, is a solid pass catcher, so that increases Roethlisberger’s potential to pass for TDs. And mix in the fact that the Bolt DBs are risk-takers. I see TE Heath Miller with an early TD, Santonio Holmes with a deep ball, and either Moore or Ward on a red zone look. Yup, that’s three.

4. Ahmad Bradshaw will outrush Brandon Jacobs. The Chiefs will see a huge dose of both Giant runners, but by the third quarter, this one should be out of reach and Bradshaw could see extended time. In fact, this has already happened this year (last week vs. Tampa). Won’t be much of a shock if it occurs again. And this is why this was the year to wait on RB.

5. Aaron Rodgers throws for more yards than Brett Favre, but still loses. The teacher will beat the student, but the student will wow the teacher with his wares. Yeah, Adrian Peterson is going to be used heavily come Monday night and while Brett Favre will want to gunsling his way around against his old squad, he simply won’t need to. Aaron Rodgers will, despite two solid corners for the Vikes, figure out a way to toss 250+ yards.

And that’s all, folks. Enjoy your Week 4, and here’s hoping the bye week bug doesn’t bite you too hard.

We’ll take a break from The Huddle 180 and do a quick look ahead to tomorrow’s games.  Here’s a few random things I’m looking for in each game:

GB @ STL

If Ryan Grant is going to get back to almost-stud status, this should be the game for him.  We’re also waiting for Aaron Rodgers to “break out” this season, but it’ll likely be Grant that has the potential to dominate in this one.

KCC @ PHI

I’d like to talk about Donovan McNabb, Brian Westbrook or maybe even Dwayne Bowe, but I just can’t ignore Michael Vick’s return to the NFL field.  He’ll have to shake off a ton of rust, but this one should be over early and Vick may be given the shot at some carries and tosses.

ATL @ NEP

I’m calling the upset here; Welker is still gimpy and is a GTS.  His replacement, Julian Edelman, is also listed as questionable.  Tom Brady really missed his security blanket last week and will be missing it even more this week.  The Falcons will pressure Brady and their offense is good enough to pick apart the rather average, Mayo-less Patriot defense.

CLE @ BAL

I’m looking at this matchup to see if Joe Flacco can actually produce as a fantasy QB week to week.  He’s been turned loose, and should throw for at least 2 scores against a real bad Brown D.   If he reverts to the rookie Flacco (which isn’t horrible, just not a fantasy QB), and only goes for 180-200 yards and one score, I would be nervous to start him weekly.

WAS @ DET

Upset #2 here.  I don’t get why the Redskins are getting nearly a TD on the road.  Yes, I realize the Lions are horrible and won 0 games last season, but that was last season and they had a 50% turn-over on their roster entering this season.  Not the same team.  Sorry Skin fans, your team is not very good.  The Lions will feed Kevin Smith the ball and will win by a field goal.  So, what am I looking for here?  A Lion victory.

JAC @ HOU

I’m waiting for Steve Slaton to shake the fumblitis bug.  If he can’t, he’ll drop down to a #2 fantasy RB.  Of course, if I were not an owner, I’d be knocking on the Slaton owner’s door to look for a trade.  Slaton tore up the Jag D last season, and should do the same here this time around.

SFO @ MIN

Really, I’m just looking to see how many yards Adrian Peterson has and how many times Patrick Willis can chase Peterson down for tackles.

PIT @ CIN

I’m looking for Willie Parker to shake his “I can’t play on the road” thing and have at least 80 yards and a score against the Bengal defense.  Also looking to see if Bengal DE Antwan Odom can chase down Big Ben for another sack.

NYG @ TBB

I’m pretty sure the Giants will extend their dominance on the road against a real average Buc squad.  Brandon Jacobs should have a field day and will likely give way to Ahmad Bradshaw, who could come up with 50-60 yards of his own.

CHI @ SEA

As a Bear homer, I’m obviously hoping for a win, but I’m actually really interested to see what WR(s) Jay Cutler decides to lock on to against the Seahawk secondary.  Johnny Knox has kinda come out of nowhere to be the go-to guy, but we know Devin Hester has plenty of skills and Earl Bennett and Cutler have a long-standing relationship.

NO @ BUF

Very interested to see how many WRs, TEs and random RBs Drew Brees can pass to on Sunday.  With both Mike Bell and Pierre Thomas with injury issues, Brees may pass the ball 50 times.

TEN @ NYJ

It’s gonna be interesting to see what Mark Sanchez does against a real defense.  Yeah, the Titan D isn’t the same without Albert Haynesworth, but they’re still far better than the Texans or Patriots on the defensive side of the football.  The rookie will come back down to Earth this week and will look like a rookie.

DEN @ OAK

There could be double-digit turnovers in this game.  What was once a pair of proud franchises and a shoo-in for a wild west shootout now looks like a laugher.  The Broncos are 2-0 but really aren’t that good.  The Raiders look good in spells (especially in their opener) and could easily control this game.

MIA @ SDC

It’ll be strange to see no sign of #21 for the Chargers.  Can Darren Sproles carry the load?  I think the Bolts will give the Dolphins a heavy dose of Antonio Gates.  Can the Fins shake off a disappointing Week 2 loss?

IND @ ARI

Honestly, I’m just looking to see how many points can be scored in this game, most of which will likely be through the air.  2 or 3 passing TDs per team?  No problem.  The Colts pass D is currently tops in the NFL, but honestly, look who they’ve faced to start the season.

CAR @ DAL

So Jerrah Jone’s megalopolis is open for business and the hype has settled a little.  Time to break it in a little more with a big win against a real struggling Panther squad.   Maybe it’s wishful thinking, but I could see DeAngelo Williams with over 100 rushing yards and close to 50 receiving yards in this one.  And of course, the real burning question is:  will the Cowboys ever force a turnover?

Welcome to the kickoff of my blog, entitled “The Huddle 180″.   Here, we will take a look at four “surprises” from the previous week (two offenses, two defeneses), talk about what happened, and do a 180 turn and look ahead to the next week, discussing how these factors could play out.

OAKLAND RAIDER OFFENSE

I’ll bet I’m not the only one that was both surprised and pleased (well, as a Michael Bush owner) to see the Raider offense suddenly look like an NFL offense.  In my mind, three critical factors were at play:

Dial M for Murphy - Louis Murphy:  that name’s probably one of the hottest in terms of fantasy free agents following Week 1.  Well, as ESPN College football commentator Lee Corso says… NOT SO FAST MY FRIEND.  Yeah, Chaz Schillens is due back in a few weeks, and it’s already being reported that Murphy will lose snaps once he returns.  What a way to thank a guy that was absolutely money in his debut?  180 Turn:  Looking forward, at least to Week 2, Murphy looks like a nice add, as he faces a KC defense that could yield some big plays.  Unfortunately, the Schillens news is disheartening, but you still have to give Murphy a try.

Double-and -Triple-Headed RB s-   I’m sure this is driving fantasy honks crazy, but what’s with all the RBBCs?  Unfortunately for us fantasy-heads, the NFL coaches really don’t give a hoot about fantasy football.  They are going to do whatever is best for their team.  Case in point, the Oakland Raiders; where Michael Bush would potentially be a stud in the making if he were the primary back on an NFL team.  Darren McFadden, looking beefed up and healthy, is going to be a PPR monster.  They ran at, around, and through the San Diego defense – which was supposed to be stout – on Monday night.   180 Turn:  With Justin Fargas set to return, this situation could get even uglier for fantasy owners, it seems.  Good news is McFadden is still a beast and will retain PPR value.  Also, Bush appears to be healthy and could be the goal-line back and even see a few PPR points too.  Perhaps the Raiders will realize that Fargas is just a solid backup and will keep him chlilin’ on the sidelines.  Looking forward to Week 2, I’d be a happy camper if I had either McFadden or Bush.

Big Boy, Better? – Is it me or did JaMarcus Russell look decent on Monday night?  He had a few nice zippy throws, and no one will ever say he can’t throw the ball downfield.  Now, he definitely made some mistakes, but the Raiders have no other option and with a healthy running game and some surprises at WR, Russell could continue to improve.  180 Turn:  We have to like anyone against the KC defense (see:  Flacco, Joe) but moving forward from there, the prospects are cloudy.  At least he gets KC twice, Denver twice and will have a solid run game, under-rated TE and speedy downfield WRs in his arsenel. 

HOUSTON TEXANS OFFENSE

Well, kind of on the flip side to the surprisingly good Oakland Raider offense, the once-potent Houston Texans offense looked downright sluggish and potentially putrid against the Jets at home on Sunday.  Now, I know Rex Ryan’s a heck of a defensive coach, but everyone under the sun thought it would take at least a few weeks – if not an entire season – to get his squad up to snuff defensively.  Let’s look at some key factors from last week:

See the Trees for the Forest? -   The Texan OL allowed two sacks, but Matt Schaub was on his back more than that, got hit a bunch, and didn’t appear to give RB Steve Slaton many running lanes.  Look, the Texans allowed only 22 sacks last season (sixth-fewest in the NFL).  They’re going to have to get back to this moving forward if this Texan team is going to put up the points everyone thought they would.   180 Turn:  Ouch.  Doesn’t get any easier.  Sure, they won’t have to contend with Albert Haynesworth, but the Titan D is still one of the best.  If this Texan OL can somehow stave off the pressure, we’ll know that Week 1 was just a fluke. 

Get Him a Body Bag Hahaha! – Matt Schaub was beat up like a rag dall by the Jets defensive pressure last week.  That simply can’t happen.  This Texan team revolves around Schaub, and his health is the keystone.  180 Turn:  As intimated above, it doesn’t get much easier for the Texan offense next week, as they travel to Nashville to take on the Titans.  Still, I think Schaub could be a high-level fantasy QB.

Hold Me Tight – What’s up with Steve Slaton and his fumblitis?  Slaton had a string of fumbles late last season, and is not off to a good start this season (losing a one on a key drive).  180 Turn:   I think he’ll turn things around with a tweak or two.  Despite the tough matchup, Slaton will get you a few catches and is a home-run threat.

NEW ENGLAND PATROIT DEFENSE

No Longer a Big Hit – One of the more curious stories leading into the start of the season was the trade of DL Richard Seymour from the Pats to the Raiders.  You can talk about “good business decisions” until you’re blue in the face, but the bottom line is that this is FOOTBALL.  Some will argue that the bottom line is actually money, and they’d probably be right in principle but that doesn’t make it good.  The Pats shuffled Seymour off, as he was due to hit free agency in 2010 and would likely be asking for a significant chunk of change.  Rather than pay their defensive leader, they get a first-round pick.  That was actually a pretty big coup, if you really think about it.  But how has this hurt the Patriot defense?  If you ask me, it hurt them significantly.  Their business decision obviously didn’t have much football thinking behind it.  The Bills had no problem moving the ball against the Patriot defense on Monday night, and I would bet my last dollar things would have gone differently had Seymour been there.  Just an opinion.  180 Turn :  Looking ahead for the next few weeks, it’s not exactly a cakewalk for the Pats.  They may continue to miss Seymour until someone steps up.  I’d give a slight bump-up to the Jet, Falcon and even Raven offensive stars for the next 3 weeks.

Hold the Mayo – You knew that one was coming.  The Pats, already without Richard Seymour, suffered another big hit with the temporary loss of LB Jerod Mayo.  Mayo had a fantastic 2008 season and was looking to lead this defense in tackles and big plays here in 2009.  That will be difficult while standing on the sidelines in civvies.  The Bills took advantage of his going out in the first quarter on Monday night.  180 Turn:  Like mentioned above, without Seymour and Mayo, the Patriot defense is not as scary.  There have been talks of adding the veteran Derrick Brooks, and you know how The Hoodie loves those vets (Junior Seau, anyone?).  Would Brooks make a difference?  Probably, but not much.

You Don’t Scare Me!  – As I’ve mentioned a couple times, without Seymour and Mayo, this defense really isn’t much of a difference maker.  The DBs can make some plays, but who is going to make the big plays on the front seven?  Adalius Thomas has the skills to be the guy, and looked OK against the Bills (5 total tackles, 1 sack).  180 Turn:  Looking ahead, you have to consider Thomas as the guy to step up.  Should Brooks be added, he’d be worth a flier, especially in deeper leagues or those that will be without Mayo.  Hold the onions, too, please.

SAN DIEGO CHARGER DEFENSE

So Which One is It? – So we’ve already talked about the resurgent Oakland offense, but was it that the Oakland offense was THAT resurgent, or was it the fact that the San Diego defense was kinda junky?  Alright, so it was like a playoff atmosphere in Oakland, which probably pumped the Raider offense up a bit, but it took the Charger D awhile to get it’s stride.  Against any other offense, really, the Bolt D could have been in serious trouble.  180 Turn:  Well, I guess we’ll see which one it is, with the Raiders set to go against the Chiefs and the Bolts host the Ravens.  Common theme here:  the Ravens torched the Chiefs in Week 1.  We can do more comparisons this time next week.

Lick it, Shoot it, Suck it!  – Just what the heck is Shawne Merriman doing?  The guy doesn’t even appear to be 100% healthy (I’d put him at about 75%), he’s giving himself mohawk haircuts and getting into it with the law after his “Hollywood lifestyle” got him in trouble again.  He was not charged with anything, but you gotta think the news regarding reality star Tia Tequila was just not a good thing.  180 Turn:  The word from the “inside” is that the Bolt brass is getting sick and tired of Merriman’s “lifestyle” and could potentially make a move.  As his health improves, we’ll see how effective he can be, especially with the coaching staff possibly auditioning some of their younger talent.

Double Down! – Sometimes I think the Charger secondary takes too many chances.  You saw it last week (especially on that Murphy deep ball); they get burned regularly.  Cromartie, Jammer and Cason can make plays, but they can also NOT make them.  180 Turn:  Teams were throwing on the Bolts for the past few seasons, and things may not have improved much this season.  They’re still a viable fantasy DEF because of the potential to make big plays, but I’d shy away if you lose points for giving up the booty.

When it comes to drafting offense you already know that the difference between a running back and a fullback is a very big factor.  Just imagine if the Falcons decided to move Michael Turner to fullback to be the lead blocker for Jerious Norwood.  You would immediately not just move Turner down your draft board but probably completely off of it.  Also imagine if Randy Moss ended up on a run first team with a below average quarterback (yeah I know he was already in Oakland) you would have to move him down your draft board.  Well when it comes to IDP you also need to understand the differences not only in postions but also how particular schemes affect those positions.  Below you will find an explanaiton of the different schemes run by NFL teams and how those schemes affect particular positions.

4-3 Defense(ATL, CAR, CIN, DET, HOU, JAX, NYG, NO, OAK, PHI, SEA,  TB, TEN, WAS)
The 4-3 which as you can see is used by the majority of teams in the NFL, employs 4 defensive lineman (2 defensive ends (DE) & 2 defensive tackles (DT)), 3 linebackers (SLB, MLB & WLB) & 4 defensive backs (2 cornerbacks (CB), 1 free safety (FS), 1 strong safety (SS)).  Normally in a 4-3 one of the DT’s will play a “2 gap technique” (normally responsible for taking up two or more blockers (usually the center and guard) and stopping the run) while the other DT will play a “1 gap technique” giving them the responsibility of the other guard, stopping the run and rushing the quarterback. The DE’s main responsibility is to pressure the quarterback and get sacks.  Fantasy wise, the MLB (aka MIKE) is usually the linebacker (LB) to target in a 4-3 defense.  They are the “quarterback” of the defense and their focus is to stop the run.  MLB’s that are able to play in the Nickel have the ability to increase their fantasy stats by as much as 10% or more.  The SLB (aka SAM) normally lines up on the tight end, when he is not engaged in blocking or covering the tight end, he may be blitzing the quarterback.  Normally, a SLB has limited tackle opportunities because of his tight end assignment.  A WLB (aka WILL) has more freedom than a SLB.  The WLB has the ability to pursue a running play as well as cover screens and blitz the quarterback thus giving the WLB the chance to make plays (interceptions, force fumbles).  The CB’s main responsibility is simply to cover wide receivers.  How they play in coverage will depend on if they are playing man-to-man or zone.  A FS is the “center fielder” of the defense.  He is responsible for deep coverage in the middle of the field as well as rolling over to help a CB when necessary.  The FS is not usually as active in run support but does have the ability to create interceptions.  A SS is usually a much better scorer from a fantasy perspective than a FS because they are more active in run support but will still have coverage responsibilities.  Another thing to note is that there are times when teams will designate their LB’s as RLB (right side) and LLB (left side) and their responsibilities are tied to what side the TE lines up.  Occasionally, you will find a team that treats their safeties in the same manner depending on the situation at hand.

Tampa 2/Cover 2 (Variant of the 4-3)( BUF, CHI, IND, MIN)
The Cover 2 is a versatile defense that can be implemented with multiple defensive fronts.  Speed is probably the most important facet of the Tampa 2/Cover 2, which is why most players are smaller than their counterparts in other defenses. Compared to other defenses what the Tampa 2/Cover 2 lacks in complexity it makes up for by requiring players to be extremely disciplined due to specific coverage areas that are assigned to each position. The main difference between the Tampa 2 and Cover 2 is that in the Tampa 2 the MLB is responsible for medium to deep middle pass coverage.  This coverage responsibility is the main reason why the WLB will usually outscore the MLB in this defense.  Also safeties in the Tampa 2/Cover 2 usually do not score as well as Safeties in other coverage shells because of their deep coverage responsibilities.

3-4 Defense (ARI, BAL*, CLE, DAL, DEN, GB, KC, MIA, NE*, NYJ, PIT, SD, SF)                        The 3-4 has been gaining some of the popularity back that it had lost over the years.  The Broncos, Packers & Chiefs will all be transitioning to a 3-4 defense this year and under the Parcells regime, Miami made the move to a 3-4 defense last year.  More and more you will see teams that are using multiple looks of 3-4 and 4-3 and that is not an easy transition to make due to the differences in personnel needed for each defense.  The DE’s in a 3-4 are generally larger than their counterparts in the 4-3.  If a team wants to generate a pass rush in a 3-4 set, they will usually have to send one of their outside linebackers (OLB) to help rush the quarterback.  Inside linebackers (ILB) are generally very athletic and stronger to allow them to shed blockers to get to the ball carrier.  A strong point of the 3-4 is its ability to confound the quarterback and the teams passing game.  Conversely, the running game can exploit a 3-4 defense.  That is why it is imperative for nose tackles to be large bodies that can eat up blockers and allow the LB’s to get to the ball carrier. ILB’s in a 3-4 are usually designated on the depth chart as either RILB or LILB and they have similar roles to a MLB & WLB.  Unfortunately, fantasy wise there is no easy answer concerning which ILB spot produces the best.  Stud ILB’s are not easy to come by but your best bet would be to find a RILB playing for a coach from the Bum/Wade Phillips coaching tree (Mike Nolan: DEN & Greg Manusky: SF).  OLB’s in a 3-4 usually garner their stats from sacks and can be very streaky and hard to rely on.  Unless your scoring system is very sack friendly, you should avoid most OLB’s in a 3-4.

* The Baltimore Ravens are really hard to pencil into one predominant scheme because they use multiple fronts probably more then any team in the NFL.  If Terrell Suggs is listed in your league as a DL then that is a good thing and if he is an OLB then that isn’t so good.  If you and your league mates are trying to decide on how to list Suggs you should realize that he played approximately 66% of his snaps last year on the defensive line but to muddy the waters a bit more is the fact that in arbitration Suggs was franchised previously as a LB/DE (he wanted to be tagged as a DE because it paid more and the Ravens wanted to tag him as a LB because the tag price was cheaper).  The New England Patriots also use multiple fronts but this preseason they really showed a bit more 4-3 then most would have expected.