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What I’m Looking For

Posted by Darin Tietgen in Fantasy Football, General, IDP, NFL Football, Offensive Lines (Saturday September 26, 2009 at 6:55 pm)

We’ll take a break from The Huddle 180 and do a quick look ahead to tomorrow’s games.  Here’s a few random things I’m looking for in each game:

GB @ STL

If Ryan Grant is going to get back to almost-stud status, this should be the game for him.  We’re also waiting for Aaron Rodgers to “break out” this season, but it’ll likely be Grant that has the potential to dominate in this one.

KCC @ PHI

I’d like to talk about Donovan McNabb, Brian Westbrook or maybe even Dwayne Bowe, but I just can’t ignore Michael Vick’s return to the NFL field.  He’ll have to shake off a ton of rust, but this one should be over early and Vick may be given the shot at some carries and tosses.

ATL @ NEP

I’m calling the upset here; Welker is still gimpy and is a GTS.  His replacement, Julian Edelman, is also listed as questionable.  Tom Brady really missed his security blanket last week and will be missing it even more this week.  The Falcons will pressure Brady and their offense is good enough to pick apart the rather average, Mayo-less Patriot defense.

CLE @ BAL

I’m looking at this matchup to see if Joe Flacco can actually produce as a fantasy QB week to week.  He’s been turned loose, and should throw for at least 2 scores against a real bad Brown D.   If he reverts to the rookie Flacco (which isn’t horrible, just not a fantasy QB), and only goes for 180-200 yards and one score, I would be nervous to start him weekly.

WAS @ DET

Upset #2 here.  I don’t get why the Redskins are getting nearly a TD on the road.  Yes, I realize the Lions are horrible and won 0 games last season, but that was last season and they had a 50% turn-over on their roster entering this season.  Not the same team.  Sorry Skin fans, your team is not very good.  The Lions will feed Kevin Smith the ball and will win by a field goal.  So, what am I looking for here?  A Lion victory.

JAC @ HOU

I’m waiting for Steve Slaton to shake the fumblitis bug.  If he can’t, he’ll drop down to a #2 fantasy RB.  Of course, if I were not an owner, I’d be knocking on the Slaton owner’s door to look for a trade.  Slaton tore up the Jag D last season, and should do the same here this time around.

SFO @ MIN

Really, I’m just looking to see how many yards Adrian Peterson has and how many times Patrick Willis can chase Peterson down for tackles.

PIT @ CIN

I’m looking for Willie Parker to shake his “I can’t play on the road” thing and have at least 80 yards and a score against the Bengal defense.  Also looking to see if Bengal DE Antwan Odom can chase down Big Ben for another sack.

NYG @ TBB

I’m pretty sure the Giants will extend their dominance on the road against a real average Buc squad.  Brandon Jacobs should have a field day and will likely give way to Ahmad Bradshaw, who could come up with 50-60 yards of his own.

CHI @ SEA

As a Bear homer, I’m obviously hoping for a win, but I’m actually really interested to see what WR(s) Jay Cutler decides to lock on to against the Seahawk secondary.  Johnny Knox has kinda come out of nowhere to be the go-to guy, but we know Devin Hester has plenty of skills and Earl Bennett and Cutler have a long-standing relationship.

NO @ BUF

Very interested to see how many WRs, TEs and random RBs Drew Brees can pass to on Sunday.  With both Mike Bell and Pierre Thomas with injury issues, Brees may pass the ball 50 times.

TEN @ NYJ

It’s gonna be interesting to see what Mark Sanchez does against a real defense.  Yeah, the Titan D isn’t the same without Albert Haynesworth, but they’re still far better than the Texans or Patriots on the defensive side of the football.  The rookie will come back down to Earth this week and will look like a rookie.

DEN @ OAK

There could be double-digit turnovers in this game.  What was once a pair of proud franchises and a shoo-in for a wild west shootout now looks like a laugher.  The Broncos are 2-0 but really aren’t that good.  The Raiders look good in spells (especially in their opener) and could easily control this game.

MIA @ SDC

It’ll be strange to see no sign of #21 for the Chargers.  Can Darren Sproles carry the load?  I think the Bolts will give the Dolphins a heavy dose of Antonio Gates.  Can the Fins shake off a disappointing Week 2 loss?

IND @ ARI

Honestly, I’m just looking to see how many points can be scored in this game, most of which will likely be through the air.  2 or 3 passing TDs per team?  No problem.  The Colts pass D is currently tops in the NFL, but honestly, look who they’ve faced to start the season.

CAR @ DAL

So Jerrah Jone’s megalopolis is open for business and the hype has settled a little.  Time to break it in a little more with a big win against a real struggling Panther squad.   Maybe it’s wishful thinking, but I could see DeAngelo Williams with over 100 rushing yards and close to 50 receiving yards in this one.  And of course, the real burning question is:  will the Cowboys ever force a turnover?

I’m So Mad At The Steelers…

Posted by John Tuvey in Fantasy Football, NFL Football, Offensive Lines (Wednesday March 4, 2009 at 2:18 am)

The Steelers are really making me mad.

It’s not the six Super Bowl titles. While it’s certainly easy to hate a front-runner, I don’t begrudge the Steelers their crowns. Certainly I’m jealous, and as a Vikings fan I have painful memories of the beatdown the original Steel Curtain gave to my squad 30-some years ago. But that’s not what has me steaming.

Here’s my issue with the current Steelers squad: they won a championship with a shaky offensive line. And in the copycat world that is the NFL, now teams seem to be taking their O-line for granted.

Like my beloved Vikings.

Yes, I’m blaming the Steelers for the fact that the Vikings have thus far not only failed to address the substandard right side of their offensive line but also created the very real possibility that they’re about to let six-time Pro Bowl center Matt Birk leave town as well.

This wouldn’t have happened if the 145 sacks the Steelers have allowed over the past three seasons had taken their toll. Instead, Pittsburgh lets All Pro guard Alan Faneca walk, allows Ben Roethlisberger (and Byron Leftwich) to be beaten and battered to the tune of a second 49-sack season in the past three years, gives up a safety thanks to a holding penalty in the end zone… and still wins the Super Bowl.

What do NFL teams bent on copying success learn from this? Unfortunately for my Vikings, it appears they think that Sage Rosenfels can stand up to similar abuse, or Adrian Peterson can create his own holes, or the Vikings defense is similar enough to the current iteration of the Steel Curtain that they can keep rolling mediocrity or worse into the lineup and expect success.

This is a bitter pill to swallow for a guy who firmly believes that it all starts up front.

But I’m not quite ready to abandon this tenet just yet. After all, eight offensive tackles went in the first round last season, including Jake Long first overall, so there are teams that still value linemen—playoff teams, too, as the Dolphins, Falcons, and Panthers all grabbed a fat guy in the first round.

Yes, they all were one and done. And yes, the Lions used a first-round pick on a tackle and went 0-16. Still, I remain undeterred.

If the Vikings are to take advantage of their current window of opportunity and make a run at ending their Super Bowl futility, it’ll take more than Sage Rosenfels. And it will certainly take more than John Sullivan, Anthony Herrera, and Ryan Cook—the current depth chart leaders at center, right guard, and right tackle in Minnesota.

Maybe Brad Childress will find a place in the Vikings locker room for a Man of the Year finalist and, oh yeah, a pretty doggone good center who still has a year or two left in the tank and is unquestionably better than any other option the Vikings could plug in. And maybe the Vikings brain trust (oxymoron?) will spend that first pick on one of the talented offensive tackles who should still be on the board when the 22nd pick rolls around.

There’s a fantasy element to this as well; there always is, you know that. Adrian Peterson is at present the consensus first overall fantasy pick. But what if the Vikings jettison Birk and ask an untested second-year player to make line calls and set blocking schemes while the at-best adequate Herrera and overmatched Cook attempt to create holes on what should be the strong side of the Minnesota offense? How confident are you now that Peterson carves out another 1,700 yards and 10 touchdowns?

I’m not. Not at all. And that’s why I’m mad at the Steelers. It’s their fault for winning a Super Bowl with an offensive line that suggests to the rest of the league that you can roll five fat guys out there and come home with the Lombardi Trophy.

I guess maybe that’s true—if you also have Ben Roethlisberger and Troy Polamalu. But Sage Rosenfels and Tyrell Johnson… well, they’re no Ben Roethlisberger and Troy Polamalu.

The Ogden Curse?

Posted by John Tuvey in Fantasy Football, Offensive Lines (Wednesday July 30, 2008 at 1:54 am)

It’s getting more and more difficult for me to justify my infatuation with Willis McGahee this preseason, thanks in no small part to the supernatural powers of Jonathan Ogden.

Is JO upset that I waited until he was retired to order my purple 75 jersey? That it didn’t take its place upon my wall of reverence (right next to Willie Roaf and Tony Boselli) until his career was apparently over?

Okay, I’ll concede that maybe this all has nothing to do with me personally. But every time I fight off the latest McGahee nick or cut or skipped practice, every time I rationalize that Ray Rice is less Maurice Jones-Drew and more Michael Turner in Cam Cameron’s new Baltimore offense… every time I bump McGahee into the back end of the first round, another Raven left tackle goes down.

Maybe I’m a glass half full kind of guy, but despite Ogden’s departure I still had (have?) the Ravens pegged for a decent offensive line. The unit is young but quite solid along the interior, and I had hoped supplemental draft find Jared Gaither could learn on the job while filling Ogden’s shoes while Adam Terry would take over on the right side.

Then Gaither suffered an ankle injury early in camp and the Ravens were forced to move Terry across to the left side. What happens? Tuesday morning he gets carted off with a injury, apparently to the same ankle he just had surgically repaired. Subsequent news on both fronts is good, as neither should be lost for a significant amount of time. However, their absence leaves Baltimore with two-year practice squad veteran Mike Kracalik on the left side and 2008 third-round pick Oneil Cousins on the right. Combined NFL game experience: nada.

All of which explains why Ravens GM Ozzie Newsome is spending so much time on the phone, looking for veteran tackle depth. And why McGahee continues to yo-yo up and down my cheat sheet. With a solid offensive line, or at least one that’s had the opportunity to play together in camp, I have Willis on the fringe of the first round. With Kracalik and Cousins manning the tackles, I’m not as eager to take that risk.

Unless, of course, Newsome’s next call is to the Ogden residence and involves copious amounts of begging and pleading.

Long Time Coming

Posted by John Tuvey in NFL Draft, NFL Football, Offensive Lines (Tuesday April 22, 2008 at 2:27 pm)

If Adam Schefter is to be believed—and there’s really no reason to think he shouldn’t—the Dolphins have committed $57.5 million, more than half of it guaranteed, to offensive tackle Jake Long with the first overall pick in the upcoming NFL Draft.

It should come as no surprise to those who know my penchant for offensive linemen that I’m a big fan of this move.

For starters, the Miami depth chart at tackle looks a little something like this:

LT: Vernon Carey, a converted guard
RT: Julius Wilson, an undrafted free agent last season who was signed off their practice squad in December

There are no other tackles on their current roster. So to say Long fills an immediate need for the Dolphins is an understatement along the lines of saying Neil Peart fills a need for a drummer in a Canadian power rock trio.

And while the move may seem to fly in the face of Bill Parcell’s “defense first” philosophy, it makes sense on a couple more levels beyond sheer “need”.

There’s the historical perspective. Since the inception of the NFL Draft, two teams have had the foresight and intelligence to spend the first overall selection on an offensive tackle. The result? Ron Yary (Vikings, 1968) and Orlando Pace (Rams, 1997) have combined for 25 NFL seasons and 14 Pro Bowl appearances. That’s a solid track record of success.

Then there’s the functional perspective. Sure, the Dolphins could draft Matt Ryan first overall, but with no one to protect him he’d be doomed to a fate similar to Tim Couch and David Carr—two first-overall selections with talent who had their potential beaten out of them as they absorbed sack after sack after spleen-bursting sack behind patchwork offensive lines. At a minimum, this approach should give John Beck or Josh McCown a little extra time as they try to prove their worth under center—an approach that worked remarkably well for the Browns and Derek Anderson last season.

And if the Dolphins are still brutal next season they’ll have another opportunity to land a franchise quarterback—one who will be well protected on the blindside.

So go ahead and tweak your draft contest entries. Locking in Jake Long at No. 1 is a freebie, but you still have 30 other slots to fill in.

Who’s the Next Joe Thomas?

Posted by John Tuvey in Fantasy Football, NFL Draft, NFL Football, Offensive Lines (Friday April 11, 2008 at 3:06 pm)

Dan Patrick and I have plenty in common. We share a birthday, for example. We both have three daughters—and a son to keep us sane. We both spend a lot of time talking about sports.

And if you were listing to Dan’s radio show Friday morning, you’ll know that he agrees with me when I say Joe Thomas deserved a share of the Rookie of the Year award last season.

Please don’t misunderstand me; I’m as big an Adrian Peterson fan as you will find. My son joined me in chanting “Adrian!” at the TV with me last April as we pleaded for our beloved Vikings to make the right pick. We exchanged purple No. 28 jerseys for Christmas. And both males in the 2V household have Peterson posters on the wall of their respective man-caves.

But while Peterson was great last year, and at times breathtakingly phenomenal, his impact was—in my opinion—less than that of Thomas.

Peterson had the numbers, and I certainly don’t begrudge him a share of the award. But to give him the honor unanimously discounts what Thomas’ addition meant to multiple Pumpkin-Helmeted Warriors.

What are the chances Jamal Lewis would have resurrected his career without the running room Thomas provided on the left side?

Would Derek Anderson be as rich a man as he is now were not Thomas protecting his blind side? And wasn’t it Anderson’s passing that led to Braylon Edwards’ monster season and another sterling effort from Kellen Winslow?

That’s in the past, and Joe being an offensive lineman is unlikely to lose any sleep over lack of recognition; after all, toiling in anonymity goes with the territory.

But think about what this year’s Joe Thomas could do for the fantasy principals on his new NFL squad.

The Class of 2008 features several candidates to emulate Thomas’ fantasy impact. The addition of Jake Long may give John Beck that extra split second to wait for Ted Ginn to get open or hold a hole open one blink longer to allow Ronnie Brown and his surgically repaired knee to slip through. Or maybe Long lands with the Rams and keeps Marc Bulger’s bell from being rung (again) while cracking daylight for Steven Jackson.

Maybe Ryan Clady adds another layer of protection for Tom Brady, making him virtually bulletproof and giving Randy Moss all the time he needs to get downfield. Maybe Branden Albert steps in for Alan Faneca in Pittsburgh and paves the way for Willie Parker to find the end zone once again. Maybe Chris Williams is the left tackle the Texans have been desperately seeking ever since making Tony Boselli their first pick in the expansion draft—boding extremely well for Matt Schaub, Andre Johnson, and whichever back between Ahman Green, Chris Brown, and Chris Taylor is closest to healthy in any given week.

Sure, it’ll be fun to see where Matt Ryan lands, how far Brian Brohm falls, which team bites on the opportunity to help Darren McFadden make those child support payments. But if you really want to separate yourself from the pack as you make those fantasy projections for 2008, keep an eye on where Long, Clady, Albert, and Williams land. Maybe McFadden will wind up with the NFL’s ROY hardware at the end of the season—but those other four horsemen could have a much greater say in whether or not you’re hoisting your fantasy league’s trophy.

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