Each season the NFL always has changes that quickly erase the results from the prior year for most players and 2007 could be a banner year for head scratching. We already are being treated to seven new head coaches, 15 new offensive coordinators and at least a dozen teams with new primary runnning backs. In fact, only nine teams start the year with the same offensive coordinator and primary running back from twelve months ago. And it is within the running backs that change will become painfully evident.

The one position that typically is the most consistent, productive and unchanging could end up a wild ride for 2007. You want same-same from last year so you can feel good about drafting that running back in the first round of your fantasy draft? Then stop reading now…

LaDainian Tomlinson – Rightfully first pick in your draft but all new coaches and coming off the best season of all time. Right… no changes here.

Steven Jackson – Incredible down the stretch last year but all those catches may end up going to Drew Bennett or Randy McMichael this year.

Frank Gore – New coordinator and a broken hand for now. Yikes.

Larry Johnson – Ummm… will he even play? Holdout to last into the season?

Shaun Alexander – 30 years old and seemed to hit the wall last year.

Joseph Addai – All alone this year and that includes without LT Tarik Glenn

Ronnie Brown – New offense probably a benefit. Probably.

Brian Westbrook – Career rushing marks last year but Tony Hunt drafted to spell him at the goal line… or more?

Clinton Portis – Mr. Not-that-durable now has Betts for a tag team?

Laurance Maroney – All alone this year but can he stay healthy and will you ever know for sure?

Oh yes, there are a ton of question marks about anywhere you look at running back and yet we will all fill the first round with their names. And just when we finally get used to how 2007 will unfold the season will end and it’ll all start over for 2008.

And therein lies the beauty.

Most of you are probably aware that Frank Gore broke his hand in training camp this week, and is expected to miss 4 weeks.

In my opinion this presents some possible opportunities to those inclined to draft Gore.

For the people that are always screaming from the mountain top that Gore is an injury risk, this will only fuel their fire.

For those that were leery of Gore before last season, but were coming around this year, Gore’s broken hand might be enough to scare them off drafting him.

If you are drafting right around this time, I suspect you may get Gore at a discount price, and I strongly suggest that you take the opportunity.

Look, this is football. Players get injured. Especially ones that touch the ball a lot. It happens. Other than Tomlinson, is there a running back in the first round that isn’t an injury risk? SJax – upright running style, L.J. – holding out + too many carries, Addai – who knows how he will handle the full load, Alexander – 30 and coming off injury plagued season himself, Westbrook – Makes every Sunday morning interesting. Maroney? Hmmmm.

I don’t know the specifics of Gores situation, but I do know that I would be thrilled if over reactionary drafters let him fall to me deeper in the first round.

A perfect example of a “sleeper” producing terrific results is Marques Colston’s emergence from fantasy who to fantasy star last season. Will there be another Marques Colston this season? Who knows? The best we can do as fantasy sports writers is speculate, research and report, and well… sometimes just go with our guts.

This time around, I’m going with my gut. My gut tells me that the Oakland Raiders are going to surprise some people this season, especially on defense. They have an athletic linebacking corps, led by Kirk Morrison and Thomas Howard. They have a solid pass-rush, led by Derrick Burgess and will be supplemented by rookie sleeper Quentin Moses. The backfield is pretty solid, with the emerging Michael Huff leading the way. This is the long-winded way of saying that the Raiders will put a ton of emphasis on improving their run game as to shorten the game and let their defense hold off the opposing offense.

What this means is that a Raider RB has to emerge, right from the get-go. It’s not going to be the Raiders’ free agent pickup, Dominic Rhodes; Rhodes is suspended for the first four games in ‘07 (and Week 5 is Oakland’s bye week). It won’t be the shifty but diminutive Justin Fargas; Fargas does not have the size nor the skill set to be an every-down back in the NFL. Rookie Michael Bush will eventually make a fantasy impact, but it’s highly unlikely it will be this season. That leaves LaMont Jordan.

Jordan was considered to be a major free-agent signing prior to the 2005 season. His ‘05 season was pretty solid, but his ‘06 campaign was basically a huge bust. So why dub him a sleeper for ‘07? Well, I pretty much already outlined it. We know he has talent (see 2005) but will be undervalued due to his sub-par 2006 season. The fact the Raiders will be competing on defense lends itself to formulating an offense that relies on a strong run game. New HC Lane Kiffin is certainly an offensive mastermind, but he’ll most likely key on the run with an unreliable pass game.

I’m not saying Jordan is going to be a top-tier fantasy back or even a RB1 in most league formats (as many thought he would be at some point). I’m betting he will be a very solid flex back, especially in leagues that give a point per reception. Add in the fact that he would LOVE to get off to a hot start in the first four weeks of the season to relegate Rhodes to pure backup duty. If Jordan’s not putting up decent to solid stats to start the season, you might have to cut bait. But again, it’s these kinds of chances that you must make to make a splash in fantasy football.

Here are three sleeper QBs to keep an eye on as the season draws closer. They’ll most likely be drafted, so don’t expect to make them a waiver wire gem. But targeting them in later draft rounds is certainly advisable.

Jeff Garcia, Tampa Bay
Jeff Garcia has all but locked up the starting QB job for Jon Gruden’s Bucs. It’s well-documented that Garcia was fabulous for the Eagles last year, posting a terrific 61.7% completion percentage and 10 TDs (to only 2 INTs) in six starts. Garcia has always been a very accurate passer, and his game fits Gruden’s West Coast offense to a tee. Expect that completion percentage to surpass 60% yet again and with an improved receiving corps (free agent TE Jerramy Stevens, a hopefully-resurgent Michael Clayton and sophomore Maurice Stovall), Garcia could easily top 20 TDs. Gruden turned Rich Gannon into a fantasy superstar well into his career, and Garcia obviously has the same tools as Gannon. Garicia’s a safer bet as a backup fantasy QB, but could very easily be a starter if his WR corps steps up.

Alex Smith, San Francisco
Everyone and their mother knows about Smith and expects him to improve on his ‘06 numbers (2980 yards, 16 TDs), but I expect him to blow even the most liberal projections out of the water. Yes, the Niners have a killer schedule, but that may indicate the need to pass more to keep up with the big-time offenses in the NFC West. Add to it the fact that teams will certainly be keying on RB Frank Gore, who tore it up last season. Like Garcia, Smith has an improved receiving corps by way of free agency (WR Darrell Jackson), an improved sophomore (TE Vernon Davis) and some capable vets with big-play ability (WRs Arnaz Battle and Ashley Lelie). I project Smith will approach the 30-TD mark with upwards of 3600 yards. Instead of reaching for guys like Jon Kitna and Tony Romo, wait a few rounds and grab Smith. He’s a savvy, intelligent signal caller who has all the tools and talent around him to put up huge numbers.

Joey Harrington, Atlanta
In case you hadn’t heard, Mike Vick is in a little hot water with the law and subsequently with the NFL and the Atlanta brass. He may or may not play in 2007, which leaves Joey Harrington as the probable starter for the Falcons. I’m sure that Harrington is a blip on many fantasy radars now that Vick is all but done, but I suspect some will not be so hot on the journeyman QB. Harrington was all but a flop in Detroit, despite having a glut of young talent around him. He also flopped in Miami, again with plenty of talent around him. Now he comes to Atlanta, where there’s some talent (veteran WR Joe Horn, stud TE Alge Crumpler and young WRs Michael Jenkins and Roddy White) but the key will be new HC Bobby Petrino and his spread offense, which was a scoring machine at Louisville. Will Petrino’s style make the Falcons an offensive NFL juggernaut? Probably not, but with veteran RB Warrick Dunn a huge question mark (back surgery), the Falcons could be passing quite a bit. Take a flier on Harrington late in your draft and you could easily be starting him mid-season. 2,800+ yards and 20+ TDs is certainly not out of the question.

As a sports fan, I am pretty bent about the evil sports trilogy ruling the media.

A ‘roid rippin slugger stealing Hanks thunder. An “on the take” ref shacking up with the mob. And a running back masqerading as a quarterback all these years has actually been masquerading as a human being.

Not what I bargained for as a sports fan.

The past few weeks have been a real slap in the face. And none of it is even close to being over yet. Though I am sick of it already.

The only winner is the slimy Vince McMoron. His murderer got pushed to the back of the line real quick in the negative publicity race. Never saw that coming. Wriggled off the hook again.

Baseball is creeping into WWE territory, and the NBA is a step ahead of them.

And what of the NFL? There has been damage done. No doubt about it. Right now we should be concentrating on training camps opening, but the NFL media is stuck in the Vick muck. Present company included.

I have 3 words for all involved. Cut and run. Lets move on and try to pretend Vick never happened. He threw all of us under the bus. And an eye for an eye works for me.

All parties are buying themselves some time right now, but in the end there are only two things that should be considered. Suspension. Release. Preferably in that order so that Mr. Blank may recoup some of the money that was stolen from him.

I am ready for football. And Vick doesn’t figure into those plans, so the NFL needs to chuck him like a hot rock. Tell me when the trial is over. I don’t really care. Dispose of the problem quickly. Lets get on to the season we’ve been waiting for.

Vick screwed over everybody except his homies. You. Me. His teammates. His owner. His fans. The NFL. Fantasy football. Nike. All his other sponsors. Everybody merchandising his products. There will be a boatload of Vick jerseys headed to the third world countries.

I’m sure they aren’t picky, but that is a boatload of bad karma right there my friends.

The quasi-human was a money making machine, but that didn’t give him his kicks. He was holding a huge complex financial structure on his back, while the whole time knee deep in dog death, seemingly unaware of his transgressions.

That is mind numbingly selfish and stupid.

Allegedly.