After every team has played 11 games, I thought it would be interesting to compare where we are now versus what the NFL was like at the same time in 2006.

The passing touchdown totals from the top five scorers from 2006 was 99 at this point in the season, this year – it’s 135.

In case you think that is just a Brady phenomena, consider that Palmer and Manning were tied with 21 passing scores last year and in 2007, there are already five QBs with more than 21 now. Half the starting QBs in a league of ten have more passing TDs at this point than any QB had last year.

It gets even better. Add in rushing scores to those top scoring QB’s and five of last year goes against 8 of this year. So the scoring is even more skewed to that group of Brady (41), Romo (31), Roethlisberger (24), Favre (22) and Anderson (25). So really, it is an increase from 104 to 143 or 38%.

With wide receiver scoring, it is exactly the same as last year but only if you ignore the top four scorers from this year. The best of any wideout at this time last year was Darrell Jackson all alone with nine scores. For 2007, there are four wideouts already ahead of that mark – Randy Moss (16), Terrell Owens (13), Braylon Edwards (11) and Housmandzadeh (11). The yards associated with them are not really much different than the best from 2006 – it is just those touchdowns.

The oddity that this year presents is not so much yardage though passing yards are up slightly outside of Brady, it is the extra passing scores that are reallly lmited to some of the quarterbacks and wide receivers. Like no year ever, this is the year of Brady and Romo, Owens and Moss.

Now I wonder how that will affect drafts in 2008?

Ah yes, Week 13. For those of you in WCOFF, this is the first BIG week of the season. Good luck to all of you competing for that big prize. For the rest of us, it’s still a very important week. Does “unlucky 13″ bring fortune or demise to your team? Well, we can help combat the latter by going after some key sleepers this week. In some cases, the players listed could be on your league’s waiver wire. In other cases, they’re taken. In this case, I’m highlighting them as a result of me thinking they could perform better than the average fantasy football pundit thinks. Anyways, let’s get to this week’s picks:

Ryan Grant (RB – GB): All this guy has done over his past three games is rack up 308 rushing yards, grab 12 receptions for 53 yards and score twice. Now, this game is for sure going to be a shootout featuring plenty of passing, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see Grant bust out with 90+ rushing yards, a score and 3-4 catches for 20-30 yards. That’s quite a bit better than many are projecting him for. He very well could be the star of the show on Thursday night; not Brett Favre. Not Tony Romo. Not TO. Ryan Grant. You heard it here first.

Jerious Norwood (RB – ATL): Man, this guy has been on everyone’s sleeper list for almost two full seasons now. Might as well throw his mug up on a box of No-Doz. But hey, he’s going to get his opportunities at some point, right? Right? Well, it actually COULD happen, starting this week. Why, you ask? Hear me out. Warrick Dunn, the veteran stalwart runner for the Falcons, surpassed 10,000 rushing yards this past Sunday (only the 23rd player to do so). Could the Falcons have been running the aging Dunn out there a bit more than they really wanted to to ensure he got to that milestone? Could be, as this 3-7 team is going nowhere fast. Now that Dunn has this milestone, you could see his workload decreased. Norwood could easily rush for 50-60 yards and grab 3-4 balls for 30-40 yards against a pretty putrid Ram defense come Sunday.

Jason Campbell (QB – WAS): It’s going to be a difficult week leading up to this game for the Redskins, given the events earlier this week surrounding the death of Sean Taylor. But Campbell, emerging as a quality leader for this team, will step up despite the circumstances and could burn a very average Bill secondary despite having his receiver corps a bit banged up. The Bill rush D is absolutely terrible, and Clinton Porits may see a stacked box early, allowing Campbell to pick apart the secondary using a resurgent Santana Moss and studly TE Chris Cooley.

Jason Hanson (PK – DET): Aw, come on, you didn’t think I was going to get through this blog entry without at least one kicker, did you? Hanson went off last week, and could be equally busy this week. The Vikes can’t stop anyone through the air, but they can certainly stop the run. Look for Hanson to get a few red-zone opportunities when and if the Vikes are able to bear down against Kevin Jones and the run. Anywhere from 3-4 FGs is certainly possible, and you know at least 2-3 extra points will be there for him.

Vince Young (QB – TEN): Young threw for 264 yards last week, albeit none of those yards resulted in a score. Also, he only ran for six yards. Expect his passing yardage to dip back closer to his average (say about 220 yards), but he should find the endzone through the air (perhaps to the steady Justin Gage) and rush for 30+ yards against the Texans.

Marcedes Lewis (TE – JAC): Lewis has been featured here a couple other times this season and really hasn’t performed. Well, this is your last chance, Mr. Lewis. If you can’t perform this week, seeing that you’re the only viable TE on the roster, well then I don’t know what else to say. Lewis should find some seams in the Colt defense, matching up against smaller linebackers. He grabbed 57 yards’ worth of catches last week and could hover around 50 yards again this week if Garrard gets him the ball.

Miami Dolphins D/ST: Is this the week? I’m guessing yes, and it will be a result of their somewhat-improving defense. Mud or no mud, their defensive efforts against the very solid Steeler offense on Monday night has to give the Fin defense a little more confidence, and the going will be far easier against a real vanilla Jet offense. Jet RB Thomas Jones has performed poorly on the road, and QB Kellen Clemens hardly has the firepower to launch an aerial assault against the Dolphin secondary. I wouldn’t be shocked to see the Dolphin D rack up 2-3 turnovers, 3-4 sacks and possibly hold the Jets under two scores.

Dwayne Bowe (WR – KC): Since Brodie Croyle’s been starting for the Chiefs, Dwayne Bowe has hovered just over 60 receiving yards per game. Will the Chargers dare Croyle to throw the ball, dropping extra defenders into coverage and seeing if rookie RB Kolby Smith can beat them? I say no. I could see Bowe burning the very inconsistent Charger secondary to the tune of 80+ yards and a score.

Reggie Brown (WR – PHI): All signs point to Donovan McNabb returning this week, and the passing game could revert back to the Curtis and Brown show (as opposed to the Greg Lewis show under A.J. Feeley last week). Curtis is always a solid start, as his catches/yardage have remained consistent. But it’s no secret that McNabb likes throwing to Brown and Brown could turn in a decent game against the Seahawks. He’s performed pretty poorly at home this season, but this could be his turnaround game against an aggressive (sometimes overly so) Seattle secondary.

Joe Nedney (PK – SF): OK let’s try this again. The Niners’ offense came alive last week, but given their track record, they’ll probably revert to the norm and go back to sucking wind yet again. That said, Nedney’s leg could be busy against a Panther defense that’s been in “bend but don’t break” mode all season.

Jeff Garcia (QB – TB): Garcia was injured last week, but is all but set to suit up and start against the Saints this week. This game should feature a ton of passing and scoring. Garcia could top 300 yards with ease. The Saint secondary is simply too inconsistent to stop Galloway, Hilliard and a somewhat underrated TE in Alex Smith.

Leonard Pope (TE – ARI): The guy has scored in three of the past games – which is saying a lot for this guy – and faces a Brown defense that will be totally overmatched by the Cardinal WRs. Pope should find plenty of seams in the middle of the field and could log 4+ catches, 40+ yards and perhaps score yet again.

Sebastian Janikowski (PK – OAK): I struggled to find a worthy sleeper in this game. Andre Hall? Nah, too easy. Daunte Culpepper? Nah, the Bronco secondary will pick him off too many times. How about Justin Fargas? Hmm, yeah. That Bronco rush defense is horrible! So I took a look at Fargas’ past few games. Wow. Huggy Bear Jr. has been running well. But uh, it’s Justin Fargas. Something tells me that this Denver D bears down this week and limits the entire Oakland offense. So why not list the Denver D as a sleeper? Good point, but instead I will feature Sea Bass, who will have plenty of opportunities (because of the somewhat improved Denver D) at home to put points on the board for the Silver and Black.

Sinorice Moss (WR – NYG): OK, I’m going to do something I rarely do: feature a player in consecutive weeks. Moss’ involvement in the Giant passing game has been increasing steadily, while Amani Toomer has faded. Additionally, Plaxico Burress has been somewhat quiet lately, and doesn’t have a very good track record against the Bears. Look for Moss to get involved this week and turn in 4-5 catches for 50-60 yards. If you’re struggling to find an adequate third WR in larger leagues, try Moss on for size.

Willie Parker (RB – PIT): See, I told you that some of my picks would not be the traditional “sleeper”, per se’. But if you’re in one of those “one and done / start ‘em once” leagues, and you have Parker available, this might be the week to throw him in. As much as I’d like to peg the Heinz Field turf as this week’s sleeper for the CIN/PIT game, I can’t bring myself to do it. But rain is in the forecast and the field could play a role once again. Expect a heavy dose of FWP in this one, regardless of field conditions.

Stephen Gostkowski (PK – NE): OK, I’ve tested this limb a couple times here and I’m pretty sure it’s steady enough to stand out on for a little bit. Look, the Eagles’ defense is not all that good, and they were able to somewhat contain the juggernaut also known as the Patriot offense. The Raven defense is nowhere near what it used to be, but they do have some star power and heavy hitters and could be ready to pull the upset. I’m not saying they’re going to beat the Patriots, but after last week’s “exposure”, if you will, you can bet Brian Billick’s Ravens – and especially the D – will be up to the task of trying to stop the best offense in the league. That said, Gostkowski could get a handful of FG tries – as opposed to his usual 5 extra point tries – this week.

With the fantasy football regular season coming to an end, I thought it might be an appropriate enough time to take time out from bashing annoying broadcasters for a week. Though the prospect of the huge showdown Thursday night being called by Bryant Grumbel, er, I mean Grumble, is weighing on my mind. It’s kind of like being invited to the Playboy mansion and taking your mother in-law along. But I digress.

No, for this week’s blog I think it might be time to revisit the week 4 blog. That was the one where I printed the letter from young Matt, who graciously took the time to ridicule my predictions. He found my 10 Players to Avoid Column I wrote in July to be lacking in accuracy after 3 weeks of evidence.

I used that letter he sent to me and the entire staff here at the Huddle as a lesson about quick judgements. Here was the readers report card on my Players to Avoid predictions after just 3 weeks of play:

Shaun Alexander – WRONG, #9 RB
Willis Mcgahee – WRONG, #16 RB
Randy Moss – WRONG, #1 WR
Chad Johnson – WRONG, #2 WR
Reggie Brown – Correct
Michael Vick – easy one
Alge Crumpler – WRONG, #6 TE
All Jaguars except Jones-Drew – WRONG, Jones-Drew is the one NOT to have
Larry Johnson – Correct (the only tough call he made!)
All Chiefs – Correct

But look how things have changed. Moss (#2 overall) and McGahee (#6 RB) were awful picks to be sure. And you might argue that there were Chiefs (namely Gonzo and Bowe) who were great draft picks. Here is how the rest fared:

Chad Johnson I did not suggest CJ would bust, but speculated that Housh would be a better value. Even after CJ’s huge 40 point effort in week 12, he still trails Housh by 24 points, and Housh has been the more consistant play. Gold!
Shaun Alexander #42 RB
Reggie Brown #46 WR
Vick never made training camp
Crumpler #20 TE
Jaguars except MJD MJD #10 RB ` Rg Williams #49 ` WR Garrard #20 ` QB F. Taylor #33 RB
Larry Johnson #18 RB and sinking

All performing below their draft positions. 7 out of 10 right. 70% again. Yeah, I think I even predicted that I would be 70% right on my predictions. I nailed two first round draft busts.

Of course, while I am patting myself on the back, and kicking poor misguided Matt to the curb one more time, I should probably mention that you could have overcome most any of these draft day disasters if you had simply ignored my comments about Randy Moss and drafted him anyway. As a matter of fact NOT drafting Moss probably cost a lot of you a chance at a championship. So I suppose I should check my ego at the door about this…….

and move onto reviewing what I said about Preist Holmes 5 weeks ago:

October 17

Don’t bother going out and getting Priest Holmes off your waiver wire. The Chiefs are going to ask him to suit up, but he isn’t likely to do much. This is nothing more than a tug of war over dollars that has turned ugly. Now Priest Holmes (who admittedly was not anywhere near football shape coming into camp) may actually be asked take some carries. I’m not convinced it is safe for Holmes to be in the game. I fear for his safety. But Holmes is intent on cashing his checks til the bitter end, and that is all this is about. Don’t get caught up in it. It can’t end well.

Tragic but true, I saw that one coming.

—–

My sleepers and busts picks a couple of weeks before the season was decent overall:

Sleepers (#=current PPR ranking / (where drafted by position in Huddle writers league)

Roethlisberger #5 QB (drafted 17)
Kitna #10 (7)
Campbell #11 (24)
Cutler #13 (10)
———-
Deuce (out) (22)
Jacobs #31 (20)
Norwood #44 (28)
Washington #45 (47)
Dayne #37 (55)
———-
Cotchery #27 (23)
Jennings #17 (35)
Crayton #37 (60)
D. Henderson (ugh)
———-
Cooley #5 (7)
V Davis #14 (3)
Scheffler #16 (no action until week 5) (18)

Busts

Leinart (out)
Eli Manning #12
———-
A. Peterson #5
———-
Mark Clayton #72
———-
Winslow #2 (has stayed healthy much to my amazement)

About half right on that list. Nothing a monkey with a dartboard couldn’t have done.

—-

In one of my earliest blogs this season, I told you about this great draft I had in a WCOFF satellite league when the fantasy Gods finally gave me that elusive first overall pick. What I didn’t realize then was that the guy who got Romo and Moss was the one that had a great draft. Mine was merely good.

I drafted first and took Tomlinson. At the next turn I took Fitzgerald and Wayne. That basically made my season right there. The interesting thing is though, I used the same basic draft philosophy in another satellite league where I drafted 9th, substituting Westbrook for Tomlinson. As it turned out, that was a blessing. But guess who the two receivers I took at the other end were? Teammates of the first pair. Boldin and Harrison. A slow painful death to 6-5. I swear I never saw it coming.

The Tomlinson team is playoff bound barring any disasters the next two weeks, while the other one flamed out with the painful trio of Boldin, Harrison and Evans. Sheer fate. At the other end of the draft those guys weren’t even options most times, just because of the way most drafts played out.

I liked all of the guys I targeted and drafted on these teams. I managed to get the right combination on one team. Fate was kind. That team is 3rd in the league and playoff bound. Not quite the juggernaut I thought it would be, but then I didn’t anticipate the biggest coup of the draft would be Brady and Moss, Romo and Owens. Those that did are the juggernauts this season. The rest of us are just hoping to get a shot to knock them off any given Sunday in December.

I’m in pretty good position to make the playoffs in 3 of my 5 leagues, but nothing will be settled for sure until this weekend. It’s getting down to it guys and gals. It’s almost one and done time. Best of luck to you all and I hope maybe I helped you with a nugget or two somewhere along the way.

It certainly has been a challenging year. If you have guided your team through the rapids this year to make it to the playoffs you should give yourself a nice round of applause. And if you didn’t listen to me and drafted Randy Moss, you will probably dust me in the playoffs, so give yourself an extra big hand. Man, that is going to hurt………….

And for those of you out of the playoffs and looking toward next season I have a few quick thoughts on a couple of players:

Earnest Graham and Cadillac Williams: I think that the Bucs have decided to roll with Graham as their guy. And just to prove that conviction I dropped Cadillac Williams in my dynasty league. I have Graham, and decided not to roster Caddy any longer. It is like owning a stock that steadily goes down in value. I stopped the bleeding too late. Of course this caused quite a stir in the league. While most of them would not offer anything in trade, several of the leaguemates apparently thought me quite mad to drop such a valuable asset as Williams. I thought nothing of it. When I make up my mind about a player, I roll with it. And given Cadillacs ongoing ineffectiveness and health issues, I do not see him as worthy of a roster spot at this time. He is a name, and that is all. I am convinced he will never be what we thought he might me. Dead weight. Move on.

Kenny Watson and Rudi Johnson: Here is another pair I own in dynasty. This one is not as cut and dry as the Caddy one. Rudi has looke more like his old self since finally coming back from injury, but Watson has cut out his niche in the gameplan. The Bengals seem to be focusing on the run a lot more lately (and surprise, they have looked better as a team both offensively and defenesively) so Rudi owners can plan on him continuing to be devalued as yet another RBBC is born.

Patrick Crayton, Terry Glenn, Sam Hurd: Those in dynasty leagues should be particularly aware of this situation. The Cowboys will need to decide if they want to outbid other teams for Crayton’s services. There is no way we can know if they will. Crayton is owned in most all dynasty leagues, as he figures to probably start for some team next season. But if the Cowboys let him walk, and Glenn is done, is it not possible that Sam Hurd could emerge as the #2 WR in the Romo led offense? Granted, with Witten and Owens hauling most of the passes, the Cowboys WR2 is not spectacular. But that guy is always an Owens or Witten injury away from being a great play. If you have a dead roster spot (and shame on you if you do) you might want to get a jump on the Hurd.

Adrian Peterson is a popular name for NFC North starting running backs. There are two of them. The lesser known is just about to get the audition his legion of supporters have been screaming for. I can’t imagine he is available in any serious dynasty leagues, but on the odd chance that he is, I would give that serious consideration. I have been holding Peterson since I picked him up off waivers before the season started. Going into the playoffs, it was a fortuitous time for him to emerge as a starter. In leagues where he is a free agent, there will be a bull rush to get him. Possibly a very valuable pick up just under the waiver wire. He has his “big break”, now let’s see what he can do with it.

Hope everyone out there had a fantastic Thanksgiving holiday! Thoughts and prayers going out to the family and friends of the Washington Redskins’ Sean Taylor, who passed away after being shot at his Florida home. It’s instances like this that make you give pause and really give thanks for the things that you have, the people in your life, and the experiences you’ve had.

Now, on to the much lighter subject of fantasy football…

Looks like we pegged a few solid sleepers this week. Hopefully some of these guys were available on your league’s waiver wire. If they were last week, there’s a good chance they’re gone by now! But let’s take a look at how last week’s picks turned out, and offer some suggestions on how to proceed with them.

Nick Folk (PK – DAL): Sure enough, Folk’s leg was about as busy as a turkey leg on the dinner table. Couple of FGs (with a long of 46 yards) and hit all four of his PATs. Folk will continue to put up fantasy points as long as this Dallas offense keeps moving the ball.

Anthony Gonzalez (WR – IND): Finally, eh? Gonzalez led the team in receptions (six) and yards (105) but failed to grab one of Peyton Manning’s three TDs. Look for Gonzalez to possibly get in the end zone against the tough Jag D.

Calvin Johnson (WR – DET): Johnson continues to amaze with his acrobatic catches and pure athleticism. Seven big catches, 83 yards and a score. Look for the rook’s game to continue to improve this week against a Viking team that can’t stop anyone’s passing game.

Reggie Williams (WR – JAX): Ummm, only one catch. But at least it was for a 59-yard score! The Jag passing game really fluctuates (Northcutt and Wilford with 5 catches each on Sunday) so it’s hard to pin down who will be the consistent pass-catcher.

Greg Olsen (TE – CHI): The rookie only had one grab while the other Bear TE, Desmond Clark, made the big catches (albeit only two).

Joe Jurevicius (WR – CLE): Despite Kellen Winslow stealing the show, JJ did come up with 5 grabs for 55 yards. The 7-4 Browns will continue to put up points as their schedule is about as sweet as your mama’s pumpkin pie.

Sinorice Moss (WR – NYG): Moss caught three balls as Eli Manning spread the ball out to his four main pass-catchers. Look for Moss to continue his increased involvement against the Bears this week.

DeAngelo Williams (RB – CAR): I just don’t get it. Look, Deshaun Foster rushed the ball nine times for NEGATIVE FIVE YARDS. Sure, Williams only had 19 yards but that was on four carries. Why the Panther coaching staff doesn’t realize it’s time to give the young RB a chance to start and get 20+ carries is beyond me.

Zach Miller (TE – OAK): Daunte Culpepper only completed 15 passes against the Chiefs, so I suppose it’s a good thing that Miller caught four of those balls.

Josh Brown (PK – SEA): Ouch. Brown missed two of his three FG attempts. Very un-Brown-like. Brown has some decent matchups (a few in domes) upcoming so if you got him, you might as well use him.

Justin Gage (WR – TEN): – Gage continue to perform as the Titans’ steadiest WR. Four grabs for 98 yards will get it done as your third WR for sure.

Clinton Portis (RB – WAS): I think I jinxed the guy. Portis had been a Buc-killer in the past but only managed 68 ground yards on Sunday. He did, however, help fantasy owners in PPR leagues with five catches.

Joe Nedney (PK – SF): Boy was I wrong. The Niner offense came alive on Sunday and Nedney only managed one FG.

San Diego D/ST - Couple of fumble recoveries, and four sacks. Not bad. Any time you get double digit fantasy points from your D, you gotta be happy.

L.J. Smith (TE – PHI): The Eagles surprised everyone by sticking with (and actually leading) the Pats on Sunday night. Smith grabbed three balls for 46 yards, which was better than many TEs ranked higher than him last week.

Nate Washington (WR – PIT): Words that end in -uck that I think of from Monday night’s game in Pittsburgh: Yuck. Muck. Stuck. Roethlisberger ended up playing catch with Hines Ward all night in the Steeler swamp.

As I settled in for the Johnny come lately addition to the Thanksgiving football schedule on Thursday night, my mood was suddenly downgraded when I realized I was about to experience 3 hours of the stylings of Bryant Gumble.

Of the vast sea of play by play men available, the NFL’s centerpiece network gives us the torture that is Bryant Grumble.

I’m not going to try and justify why I hate Bryant Grumble. It is hard to put my finger on it. Much like it is hard for Grumble to put his finger on player names, and the fact that NFL “periods” as he constantly refers to them are actually called “quarters.”

Grumble comes off as a boorish snob. You can hear it in his tone. He is as far removed from what we want in a football announcer as possible.

And you can also tell that Grumble is not a rabid fan like the rest of us. He does not get excited. His monotone “Today Show” voice rarely changes inflection. That may have been soothing for housewives sipping coffee in their robes, but grating to those of us who do not want an NFL game described to us by an emotion-less droid.

There are certain things that most football guys like us find repulsive. Dr. Phil, Celine Dion, Michael Bolton, Michael Jackson, Jim Nabors Gospel albums, The View, soap operas, shopping at the mall, tofu, Barbara Streisand and the Riverdance just to name a few. Grumble is on that list as well, right between discussions about menstruation and colonoscopy.

How is it that the network at the center of our NFL universe doesn’t know that? How can they justify charging outrageous prices to the cable companies for their precious network, and then shove this clown down our throats?

How bad is Grumble? By halftime Thursday night I found myself pining for the good old days of Joe Theisman and Paul Mcguire.

Need I say more?