It certainly has been an interesting season, my first season with a blog. I have looked like a genius at times, I have looked like an idiot at times. Mostly the idiot thing. But always, self serving yet unabashedly honest.

But why re-hash the past I say. We have a Superbowl game left to watch. Down to one game. This wild and wacky football season has one foot in the grave. And for once in my life, I can honestly say I am ready for it to be over. My brain just can’t comprehend the NFL any more. Not for now.

One look at the Superbowl contenders tells you the story of the season.

The Patriots? Everybody pretty much expected them to be here from the moment they went on a WR signing spree last offseason. But on the brink of 19-0? I doubt even the most wacked Patriots fan (and that is saying something) would have realistically thought this possible. Perfection. On the line. And all of football’s talking heads that stood steadfast to the notion that an undefeated season just wasn’t possible in this parity driven reality that is the NFL may be proven wrong once again. Count me in that group. The Patriots exceeded even their own lofty expectations to this point.

The Giants? What the hell? I never saw this one coming. They looked dead in the water a couple of months ago. They were really good at finding ways to lose through the first 12 games. Teetering on being an also-ran in the incredibly below average NFC. But the defense has jelled on this team, and I swear I saw a light bulb come on over Eli Manning’s head about a month ago. Eli has started doing the “little things” that transform an NFL quarterback from average to good. Eli is looking off defenders, keeping the opposition off balance, and delivering the ball accurately and quickly. Did we just see this guy turn the corner? Or is it just a head fake that will leave the Giants fans feeling ill come Sunday? Who are these guys, and why do they have a big chunk of the population convinced they can lay waste to the chosen ones?

And the Giants do have people believing. But not me.

Oh no, I’m not climbing on the bandwagon. I have been down that road and it is a painful one. Not me. Not this time.

You know me. I am an underdog guy. Love to bet the underdog. Love to root for the underdog. Through Spock-like mind melds, I try to will underdogs to victory. And what has it got me? Mostly heartbreak. And after this season I am just too emotionally spent to put it all on the line for the G-Men.

And trust me, I would love to. I would love to climb aboard that crowded bandwagon with the rest of you, throw my support behind the Giants, and pump my fist in the air when they hoist the Lombardi on Sunday afternoon in amid the backdrop of a stunned Patriots team. Man that would be great. That would probably be one of the best moments of my life.

But it just isn’t going to happen. And I am not going to allow myself to even dream it. I just can’t tolerate any more pain this season. It is going to be painful enough to watch the Pats rewrite history. I just can’t delude myself into hoping, believing, or betting that it won’t happen. There is no more fight in this underdog. I have accepted the sickening and unavoidable truth. The Patriots are indeed going to win the Superbowl. And they will probably win it big.

All the Giants bandwagoners have plenty of ammunition. They have plenty of reason to hope. I understand that. And Sunday night I will sympathize with you. But I just can’t go on the ride with you.

“But Kevin, the Giants took the Patriots to the limit in week 17, they do not fear the Patriots like most teams. They know they can play with them. They have confidence. The Patriots just haven’t looked as dominate over the last month of the season. Kevin, why can’t you believe this can happen?”

Yeah, all of that it true. And Brady limping around in that boot last week was great theater. Really added fuel to the Giants bandwagon bonfire. But all of that is just an illusion.

The bottom line for me is this. Belichick has had two weeks to prepare his team. That is deadly.

This game will be played in a nice clean sterile laboratory. No elements. No wind. No rain. No snow. A fast track and Randy Moss against the Giants secondary. That is deadly.

And that is the deal breaker for me. The Patriots will not lose a game under such conditions. I have been saying it all along. To beat the Patriots, teams need elements in their favor to level the playing field. Because the Brady to Moss connection is just too much to overcome otherwise.

The Patriots will likely resemble the team that spent the fair weather first half of the season stomping opponents into a bloody slurry, rather than the one that looked entirely mortal when the winter winds put their killing spree on hiatus.

So stock up the liquor cabinet. Order your wings early. Enjoy the day drinking and eating yourself into oblivion with your friends. But don’t ruin it by betting your hard earned money on the Giants, or deluding yourself into thinking the governer will be calling in a reprieve. There is no Santa Claus. There is no Easter bunny. And there is no way in hell that the Giants are going to pull this off.

God that was painful. And if I look like an idiot come Monday morning, I will be one happy sumbitch. Well, as happy as an idiot with a hangover can be, that is. More likely I will be miserable and hung over. But at least I am prepared. My old Boy Scout troop leader would be proud.

The last two weeks I have filled this blog with playoff predictions against the spread. A 3-5 performance over that time has me thinking maybe it is time to hang it up. Hell, I can’t even tell you who will win a game outright, let alone against the number.

The Colts game was an epiphany for me. Despite our analysis, and best gut feelings about how games will play out, the players on the field still have to deliver. The Colts did not. The Chargers did in a big way.

If the Chargers can gut out a road victory over a heavily favored Colts team with half the team packing ice on the sidelines, I deem the NFL impossible to predict.

The improbable does happen. Marvin Harrison can catch a slant pass, and try to wriggle free of a tackle instead of tucking the ball and hitting the ground for a 20 yard gain. If Marvin Harrison makes that play the way I had seen him make it what seems 999 times in succession just the way I described it, the Colts likely go up 14-0 and the ballgame is over.

Or if Kenton Keith hadn’t tipped that pass at the goal lines into the arms of the defender laying on the ground.

Oh, yeah. And the Colts defense forgot to show up.

It is hard to predict things like that.

And so, packing my nasty bad mojo by my side, I have decided to make only one prediction this week. And you can call this one an iron-clad lock.

The New England Patriots will destroy the Chargers. Don’t even feed me any of that “team of destiny” crap with the Chargers.

And it isn’t because the Chargers are banged up. It isn’t because the Patriots don’t lose playoff games at home. It isn’t because the boys from California will be playing in the freezer. It isn’t because Tom Brady is Tom Brady and Phillip Rivers or Billy Volek are whatever quarterback shows up that day.

Turner v. Belichick. Even if you consider the teams on the field equal, the coaching mis-match is just too great. Yeah, Turner is getting lots of love after he out maneuvered Tony Dungy. But let’s get real. Is it possible that Bellichick makes Turner look like a mastermind a second week in a row? Really?

Come on. Belichick is playing chess, and Turner is playing checkers. Brady is re-writing the record books and dating supermodels, while Rivers gets in pointless fights with drunken idiot fans on the sidelines. It’s a clash of cultures.

I’ll take the chess playing, healthy, record setting, supermodel dating guys over the broken down, checker playing sideline screamers. It is just a matter of common sense.

And common sense has served me well so far. After what I have seen over the last 4 months, I believe anything is possible. Except an upset in this game. God has chosen his team and there is little we can do about it.

Unless Brady gets Tonya Harding’ed on his way out the tunnel, it is ova!

No big surprises on Saturday… Yawn…

The Packers fell to a 14-0 deficit in a matter of only a few plays thanks to Ryan Grant developing a sudden case of butterfingers but after that surprise, the game proceeded without any real fanfare. Grant was unstoppable rushing for 201 yards and three scores and Brett Favre also threw for three touchdowns. The Packers offense looked every bit as good as it had at any time this year and should give Packer fans reason to believe that next Sunday is not the final game. Figure in the final 57 minutes of the game, the Packers outscored the Seahawks 42-20 and that did not come because of cheap touchdowns since the Seahawks had no interceptions and only one lost fumble. It was all about the Packers winning the game exactly as expected – Grant crushed them and Jennings catches touchdowns like it was just another day at practice.

The Patriots held on to win in the manner that has become common for them in the final weeks – play to a draw by halftime and then gradually get a lead that they can sit on. The Jaguars took away all chances for a long pass to Randy Moss who ended with only one catch for 14 yards but once Brady was given the short field, he completed 26 of 28 for 262 yards and three scores. His two incompletions were even catchable. Laurence Maroney ran very well with 122 yards on 22 carries and one score but Brady just sat back in the pocket the entire game and threw dump off passes over and over. The Pats defense was less than impressive but it doesn’t really matter when the offense can mount a scoring drive every time they touch the ball. The Patriots only punted once in the game and yet the same was true for the Jaguars. But Brady is just too dangerous when he has time. You can pick your poison here but you end up dead no matter what.

On Sunday – there were nothing but surprises.

What the hell? The Indianapolis Colts – healthier than they have been all season – cannot beat the Chargers who were playing without Philip Rivers, LaDainian Tomlinson and for the most part Antonio Gates? What? WHAT?!?!

Shades of 2005 when the Colts lost to the Steelers in their first game out of the gate. Did the Colts feel confident with a 10-7 lead at halftime and all took a few bong hits before playing the third quarter? By the time it was over, the Colts had lost their most important game of the year, the one that they had been preparing for two weeks to play, and it was taken away by Billy Volek, Michael Turner and Vincent Jackson. If that was all it took, the Chargers are seriously overpaying their star players. Here’s a thought – Marvin Harrison is done. Here’s your watch, thanks for the memories. After waiting for almost the entire season to play, his contribution was two catches for 27 yards and one drive killing fumble that ended up as one of the perhaps 15 different ways the Colts gave this game away. Unbelievable.

The Cowboys had the #1 seed in the NFC which had never, ever lost in the Divisional Round for the last 17 years. Ah yes, setting new records all the time. The #1 offense in the NFC couldn’t come up with points when it needed it worst. Sure, Tony Romo became the $60 million man, so why wouldn’t he love the chance to get the ball with 1:50 left to play on the NYG 48-yard line? This is what he was born to do. This is exactly why you pay the big bucks instead of going with some scrub.

Anyway, it should have not come down to that but with a readymade way to start a personal legend, Romo flopped. It’s not as if the rest of the team did not contribute. Terry Glenn pulled his own version of Marvin Harrison though actually had three more yards than Harrison on his two catches. But all that should not have mattered when Plaxico Burress only had one catch for five yards. Manning only threw for 163 yards. Amani Toomer took time out from filling out his NFL retirement papers to kill the Cowboys with two scores that included a 52-yard run down the sideline and Dallas defenders did their version of flag football instead of tackling him. Toomer scored from 52 yards out. If that isn’t fate, what is?

Could it be that having a bye week is a bad thing? Does it make the home teams get somehow soft and in the case of the Cowboys and Colts, make a team look inexplicably flat? In both cases, it wasn’t so much the offense that was bad (though both teams could have done more to be sure). It was more about what the defense couldn’t do. And special teams. And penalties. And all those little elements to a game that don’t get nearly the press of a star quarterback or lofty season totals. But in the end, they matter the most.

The Super Bowl is going to be the Patriots and the Packers unless somehow both the Chargers and Giants can pull off absolute magic once again. The Chargers are suddenly decimated with injury and the Giants have been playing so far over their head for so long that they have forgotten that they really are not that good. There is no way that the Giants or the Chargers can win next week.

Just like there wasn’t last week.

For those of you in weekly re-draft leagues, there are a few sleepers out there that could outperform their projections. Let’s take a look at one per matchup.

Marcus Pollard (TE – SEA): The Packers have had trouble defending opponents’ TEs and with the injuries to the Seahawk WRs, Pollard might be a bit busier this Saturday.

Josh Scobee (PK – JAX): The Jags will try to keep this close and will look to get points wherever possible. If this game’s close, it could certainly come down to the kicking of Scobee and Gostkowski. Figure Scobee will get multiple FG chances on Saturday.

Vincent Jackson (WR – SD): With TE Antonio Gates shelved for this game, the WRs are going to have to step up for the Bolts. The 6′5″ Jackson will be a prime candidate to get the looks usually going Gates’ way. The smallish Colt defensive backs will have problems with V-Jax’s size. Chris Chambers had a great game last week; look for it to be Jackson’s turn this week.

Marion Barber III (RB – DAL): Not so much of a “sleeper”, but I think he is going to have an absolute monster of a game against the G-men on Sunday. I’m talking multiple TDs and yardage approaching 100. Barber ran all over the Giants in their last meeting and the Giants are middle-of-the-road in terms of stopping the run. Everyone’s talking about TO and the receiving corps for the Cowboys but somehow the run game goes somewhat forgotten. Don’t forget about Barber.

Seattle @ Green Bay I am hearing a lot of commentators give the Seahawks a good chance at pulling an upset. I disagree. The reasoning for those opinions usually has something to do with the fact that Holmgren knows Brett Favre. Yeah, I will give you that. Holmgren probably knows (or knew) Favre better than most of the coaches in the league. But does that mean he has a monkey wrench to throw in the Packers engine? Probably not.

The Packers started out the season winging the ball all over the field. But that was seemingly due mostly to the fact that they had trouble establishing a running game. Then along came Ryan Grant. The Packers are no longer one dimensional. But the Seahawks are. Don’t delude yourself.

The Seahawks furious comeback in the late part of the Redskins game has the public convinced that the 8 point spread is a gift. But we are likely to see a very different Seahawks team on the frozen tundra this Saturday. The team we will see Saturday will be playing to a hostile crowd and hostile weather conditions. Well, hostile to those Seahawks without heated pants that is. We all know by now that in the playoffs, especially in inclimate weather, teams must be able to run the ball effectively to win the game in most cases. I see no evidence that suggests the Seahawks will be able to do that.

Hasselbeck and the pass protection will be the key to this game. If he can dink and dunk his way through 4 quarters effectively the Seahawks could have a chance. But without a running attack, he may very well be forced to put the ball in the air 50 times. The Seahawks have more playoff experience. But the Packers appear to have the superior talent, despite their youth and inexperience. And they are rested. And they are healthy. They are balanced. And they are at home. Eight points is a lot to give, but I think that is the only way to play this one. Packers -8

Jacksonville @ New England This is a tough game to call. At 13 points plus in some places, it is the largest spread in the weekend of tough numbers. This is the matchup most wanted to see. Jacksonville has exactly the right type of attack to keep pressure on Brady, while shutting down the running game.

I would love to pick the Jags to win this game. I really like what they have done over the last half of the season, and truth be told they have been more impressive than the Patriots down the stretch. But if you are asking me if David Garrard is going to be able to match Brady blow for blow, I’m afraid I will have to say no.

The Patriots plan for this game will be simple. Strike early. Get that double digit lead. Then force Garrard to beat them through the air. If that happens, the 13 point spread will evaporate early in the contest.

The Jags need to establish heavy pressure on Brady early, and lay the kind of physical beating to the Patriots that has become their trademark. But for the Jags to have any chance, they have to be able to withstand the haymakers that will be coming their way out of the gate. If the Pats get up early, it will probably get ugly. The Jags are not built to come from behind.

The only caveat I will offer is that if the weather is nasty, with strong winds and or rain and snow, the Jags chances of victory go up in a big way. If the Pats are forced into a grind it out contest with the Jags, we could see the biggest upset in playoff history this side of Joe Namath. But if the weather is moderate, and Brady has his full complement of plays, the Pats should win this game and cover the lofty spread. While it concerns me greatly that the Pats finished the season 1-4 vs. the spread, I would only bet against them if Mother Nature lends a helping hand. Patriots-13

San Diego @ Indanapolis This one is pretty easy to me. The Colts stuff the run and pit Rivers against Manning. Manning with Harrison back. Reggie Wayne. Dallas Clark. And two pretty good pass catching running backs at his disposal. Rivers will probably be without Gates, and that is critical.

Don’t make this more complicated than it needs to be. We aren’t going to see a game here. The Chargers let the Titans hang around for most of the game last week. They barely took care of the six seed, after going scoreless in the first half. They will not have that luxury this weekend. I look for the Champs to look like champs and put a beatdown on Rivers and the Gates-less Chargers. Colts -9

NY Giants @ Dallas Wow, was I ever wrong about the Giants last week. Who knew that “good Eli” would show up just in the nick of time. If the Giants can get the same kind of pressure on lovesick Romo that they got on Garcia last week, and good Eli shows up again this one could be very interesting. And with Owens looking iffy, and Romo with far more than football on his mind, it is not beyond the realm of possibility that the Giants coud shock the world for the second weekend in a row.

In any case, I am seeing the spread at 9 in some places. I know that if the Cowboys can get Owens on the field and finally realize that the key to their success has “Barber” sewed on the back of his jersey, the Cowboys are capable of putting it on this scrappy Giants team.

Before the playoffs started, I gave the Giants zero chance of going anywhere. And after their victory over the Packers I was pretty sure that the Cowboys would be taking a trip to the Superbowl. But with the Giants toting some serious mojo, Owens dinged, Romo chasing tail, and the offensive coordinator letting Barber gather dust on the sidelines, I have to say this game is a coinflip in my opinion. Anything could happen. Either team could blow the other out, or I could easily see it being decided in the closing minutes. In any case, I don’t really see laying 9 against a Dallas team that has several potential issues. The Cowboys should win this game handily. But I just wouldn’t bet on it. Nobody is more shocked than me to be saying it, but the Giants are the best dog on the board this week. Giants +9