We’ll see plenty of recaps focusing on the highlights of the 2008 NFL draft over the next week, so for now I’m going to focus on the negative.

We’ll start with the Oakland Raiders. As if it weren’t enough to have Al Davis running the War Room, the Silver & Black also sent Big Al’s brother to New York to work the table at Radio City Music Hall. Neither looked as if they should be expected to make it through the round without requiring a nap. End result? A team that finished sixth in the league in rushing last year and has roughly $15 million tied up in its current stable of backfield bypasses the perfect replacement for Warren Sapp (which the 31st-ranked run defense desperately needs) to swing for the fences with Darren McFadden.

On the heels of that pick, the Chiefs apparently turned down a trade from the Saints that included the 10th overall selection, the Saints second-rounder (40th overall), and New Orleans’ first-round pick in 2009. Glenn Dorsey is a stud, no question, but that’s a whole lot to pass up. Ultimately the Chiefs fared quite well on Day One, but… two ones and a two to move back five spots? If you’re coming off of 4-12 with multiple holes to fill, you gotta make that deal, don’t you?

Last year the Detroit Lions were on the verge of kicking Tatum Bell to the curb. This year, with Bell the lead back in their stable, they pass on Rashard Mendenhall in Round One, then in Round Two add an undersized linebacker who most likely would have been there when they picked early in Round Three. Then again, who are we to question the genius that is Matt Millen? If any of us demonstrated as much sheer incompetence at our jobs as he does at his we would have been out on our backsides a long time ago.

The last time the Ravens traded up into the first round to draft a quarterback they hitched their wagon to the strong arm of Kyle Boller. As Brian Billick admitted during his stint as an NFL Network commentator, that decision helped get him run out of town. So a new administration rolls in… then trades up in the first round to hitch its wagon to the strong arm of Joe Flacco. Somewhere George Santayana is spinning in his grave.

There is no bigger Jeff Fisher fan on the planet than me, but… Chris Johnson? Really? I understand the hope is to create a thunder/lightning thing with Johnson and LenDale White. But unless you’re switching to the wishbone and running old-school triple option it doesn’t make sense. First, it says you made a mistake drafting Chris Henry in the second round last year. And second, it still leaves Vince Young without a target. Either the plan is to switch Johnson to wideout or the Titans figure Young couldn’t hit the target anyway so a 6-4 receiver like Limas Sweed wouldn’t have mattered.

Houston, Houston, Houston. You could have had Rashard Mendenhall or Mike Jenkins at 18, but you traded down. Understandable, since you didn’t have a second-rounder and your primary need is offensive line help. And you tried, you really tried, drafting an offensive tackle at 26. But you probably could have traded back another 10 or 15 spots and still selected Duane Brown. And you still don’t have a second-round pick. Or a running back. Or a cornerback.

The Jets have apparently forgotten Johnnie Mitchell. And Kyle Brady. And their other more pressing needs.

I’d hate to be the Rams intern who figured after round one you just erase the top 10 wide receivers on the draft board, because when the team finds out just who was still actually available when they took Donnie Avery 33rd overall, they are not going to be happy.

Nothing against Jordy Nelson, who I think will be a solid pro. And nothing against the Packers, who once again deftly traded down. But I’m not sure the Pack is good enough to afford an absolute luxury pick like a fifth wide receiver.

I’ll be checking the Bay Area news tomorrow morning for reports of a Mike Martz killing spree. A tip to CSI SF: one stab wound for every good receiver still on the board when the Niners picked Chilo Rachal at No. 39.

The worst moment of Day One occurred at No. 40, and it has nothing to do with the Saints’ selection of Tracy Porter. While NFL Network was interviewing Jerry Jones (thankfully, I was not watching in hi-def), I switched over to ESPN to find the once-great Chris Berman mubmlin’ bumblin’ stumblin’ over himself. I opted for a commercial on another channel.

As a Vikings’ fan, I’ll remember the 2008 draft for the acquisition of Jared Allen. And I do think Tyrell Johnson will be a good player some day. But unless Minnesota plans on lining up Allen at right tackle and Johnson at tight end, the Purple still have two glaring needs to fill. And because Brad Childress gifted the Vikings’ fourth-round pick to his former employers in Philly, Minnesota won’t have a chance to address those needs until pick No. 150. Jared Allen… serenity now.. Jared Allen… serenity now… Jared Allen…

It’s become a contest: who can pick “the next Marques Colston” too early this year? In 2007 that moniker elevated Jacoby Jones to the third round; this year, the Bengals took Jerome Simpson at No. 46—with Limas Sweed, Malcolm Kelly, and Mario Manningham still on the board. Maybe Marv and Ocho Cinco can still kiss and make up.

Nothing is better than entering into the next season of your dynasty league with a roster brimming with starting running backs. How delightful! Should I start them? Should I trade them? Oh look, that team doesn’t have any – pity!

But the 2008 NFL draft didn’t take potshots at starting running backs. It approached the NFL backfields with a shotgun and by the time the second round – THE SECOND ROUND – already seven starters in the league were left scratching their head while fantasy owners reviewed their rosters like the dead and dying from a battlefield report. Let’s see who just lost fantasy value.

Darren McFadden (OAK) – The 1.04 pick in the draft made holding Justin Fargas no longer all that attractive even if he did sign a nice contract a few months ago. Lamont Jordan and Dominic Rhodes are just waiting for the phone call.

Jonathan Stewart (CAR) – The 1.13 pick was a mild surprise but only because it is year three of fantasy owners waiting for DeAngelo Williams to get his shot at being the starter. Not going to happen. He’ll still play but Stewart is everything that Foster never was and Williams apparently will never be.

Felix Jones (DAL) – Enough with the crying about why Julius Jones took carries away from the always more productive Marion Barber. We’re still facing Barber and Jones only this time it is Felix who was the first pick of the Cowboys and just the third overall RB taken in a draft considered rich in running backs. Barber still plays and still scores touchdowns. That whole pipe dream about 25 carries a game just flew out the top of Texas Stadium though. Oh yeah, hold out longer Barber. Not like the Cowboys have any other choice… no wait. Now they do.

Rashard Mendenhall (PIT) – This was a surprise but so was Mendenhall being available at the 1.23 pick. No blaming the Steelers for taking the RB that some had #2 on their draft board and that comes in with less speed than Parker but more of everything else. This includes healthy limbs. This was probably the toughest one to swallow for dynasty team owners. Take a top ten RB and now there’s no telling how much Parker gets used. And no major rush to get him back into the lineup. Fast Willie meet prototypical Mendenhall.

Chris Johnson (TEN) – This is maybe not that bad. Sure, it says that the Titans whiffed when they took Chris Henry in the second round last year but Lendale White can now return to what he does best – plow into the lone and offer the thunder to Johnson’s lightning. Two runners that are completely different but both will cut into what the other would do alone. Nice move for the Titans, not so much if you were banking on White this year.

Matt Forte (CHI) – Hey, it could be worse for Cedric Benson. At least the Bears waited until the second round before taking a runner that is effectively the same as Benson. The least this will do is offer a muddled backfield and lower numbers but then again, they were already among the lowest last year for Benson. Chances that Matt Forte hires a family friend as an agent and then holds out until September? Less than zero.

Ray Rice (BAL) – This may not be that bad since Willis McGahee actually ran well last year and the Ravens could always use a solid back-up but many people were high on Rice and feel that he has NFL quality skills. McGahee is safe… for now…

That’s arguably five or six veteran RB’s that are almost certainly looking at less work in 2008. And that means less points for your team. It only serves to make yet more teams lean towards tandem backfields. The great news is that there are a lot more running backs that had fantasy significance. The bad news is that there are even less with any difference making scoring for your team.

Tough to rely on any RB from year to year it seems. And it only gets worse.

Sniff… I love you LaDainian…

Well folks, I hope I didn’t disappoint any of you that were tracking my blog. It was one of the craziest 10 days of my life last week and the first part of this week. Was in California on business all of last week, then headed to the Texas coast with some friends, then headed east to Florida and Philadelphia on business. That said, I didn’t have time to blog my picks… and probably irritated my leaguemates as I was on the clock for – at times – hours on end. Doh.

Anyways, let’s catch up with a round-by-round look at who I grabbed.

1.13 – Tom Brady
2.04 – Andre Johnson
3.08 – Ryan Grant
4.10 – Wes Welker
5.13 – Ray Lewis
6.04 – Osi Umenyiora
7.13 – Gibril Wilson
8.09 – Thomas Jones (traded away for Cedric Benson and rookie 1.14)
9.13 – Heath Miller
10.04 – Mike Peterson
11.13 – Madieu Williams
12.04 – D.J. Hackett
13.13 – Champ Bailey
14.04 – Donnie Edwards
15.13 – Antonio Cromartie
16.04 – Joey Galloway

And to catch you up…

17.13 – Chester Taylor (RB, MIN): At this point, I wanted to grab the “best available” and I wanted some RB depth. Everyone knows that Adrian Peterson is THE stud RB in dynasty formats, but Taylor is still going to get carries. And what happens if Peterson goes down? He has had some injuries in the past. In a PPR format, Taylor will have value even with a healthy Peterson.

18.04 – John Abraham (DE, ATL): This guy was once a part of the defensive end elite. I think, if he shakes the injury bug, that he has the talent to once again reach that level. I feel great with Umenyiora anchoring my DEs, and Abraham’s the perfect risk-reward at a position I’m already ahead of the curve on. To complete the trifecta at DE, I’ll be looking at a younger guy with upside at DE in later rounds.

19.13 – Caddy Williams (RB, TB): At this point, people were taking some chances on risk-reward players and I decided to do the same. Williams is an extremely talented back, but has a lot to work on in terms of getting healthy. If he can regain his form, he’s easily a solid #2 fantasy back, maybe better. At this point in the draft, it was worth the risk.

20.04 – Vonnie Holliday (DT, MIA): And at this point, I didn’t feel like taking much of a risk and needed to fill a starting position. DT is such a crapshoot, but I still wanted a guy that was at least consistent. Holliday will anchor the new-look Dolphin defense and will need to both plug the middle against the run and rush the QB. Not the sexiest pick ever, but filled a need.

21.13 – Adam Vinatieri (PK, IND): Perhaps a bit early to “go kicker”, but I really like having difference makers at as many positions as possible. Vinatieri is probably the consensus #1 dynasty kicker despite his age. He’ll be making FGs for the Colts for many, many years. Gotta love a dome-based kicker on a team that puts up big points.

22.04 – Mike Vrabel (LB, NE): Right when I thought my LB corps couldn’t get any older, Mr. Vrabel was there staring me in the face. I think he has a good year or two in him and could serve as a decent #3 or #4 or backup type LB for me. In a league this size with the scoring and starting requirements as they are, Vrabel could be valuable.

23.13 – Isaac Bruce (WR, SF): I think I got tremendous value here. Bruce comes west to a team that desperately needs veteran leadership on the offensive side of the ball. Mike Martz is now the OC in SF and will definitely use Bruce to the best of his ability. QB Alex Smith will be smart to look Bruce’s way. In a PPR league, Bruce could easily fill a #3 fantasy WR spot.

24.04 – Randy McMichael (TE, STL): McMichael was once a near-elite TE but his move to St. Louis rendered him all but rather useless. Still, he has value in a dynasty league where you can start multiple TEs. With QB Marc Bulger healthy and hopefully a healthier offensive line, McMichael could be a decent fill-in TE with some upside.

25.13 – Adrian Peterson (RB, CHI): No, not THAT Adrian Peterson. But still, I was surprised the backup to Cedric Benson lasted this long given Benson’s woes. Perhaps people were scared off by the Bears’ talking about drafting a RB. But even with a rookie RB in the mix, Peterson is going to have value… especially to the Benson owner, which just so happens to be yours truly. An absolute must-pick at this point.

26.04 – Jamar Williams (LB, CHI): Another point in the draft where you have to take chances, if you ask me. I grabbed Jamar Williams, who will be filling in for a probably-still-jaded Lance Briggs at the very productive WLB spot in Chicago. Should Briggs or Brian Urlacher go down with injury, both Williams and Michael Okwo would have awesome value. Williams will be DTS eligible, too.

27.13 – Mark Anderson (DE, CHI): Another pick, another Bear. And this one was a big surprise. Anderson is a sack-master and that means he has incredible value in this league. I think he has top-10 fantasy talent.

28.15 – DeShaun Foster (RB, SF): Felt real good with this pick. Frank Gore is going to get 75% or more of the carries in SF, but who knows if that workload gets him injured. At this point, I’m grabbing handcuffs that owners are failing to take. Foster looked to be slowing down in Carolina, but he could see a resurgence in his home state in Martz’s system.

28.16 – Andra Davis (LB, CLE): Oh how the mighty have fallen. Well, OK, Davis was never an elite LB, but was drafted as a solid #2 fantasy LB for a few years. In the 28th round, he’s a nice value as a backup LB.

29.13 – Doug Gabriel (WR, CIN): Another pick I really liked. With Chris Henry out of Cincy, someone’s going to need to step up as the #3 WR for the Bengals. And hey, if Ocho Cinco is sent packing, Gabriel could easily be fighting for the #2 spot for the Bengals. He’s had some alright stretches over the past few years, and could find a connection with QB Carson Palmer.

31.13 – Brodney Pool (S, CLE): Pool was touted as possibly the next big thing for the Brown defense. He’s had some decent stretches of games but nowhere close to what people thought. But hey, he’s a starter for a defense that gives up yards, so he’ll have opportunities to make plays and score fantasy points.

32.04 – Brandon Meriweather (CB, NE): Another risk-reward pick; a guy I can throw on DTS and cross my fingers that he develops into the defensive back (he could play safety, too) he was touted to be. With the trades of players and aging players that remain for New England, Meriweather will get playing time and could succeed soon.

33.13 – Mike Scifres (PN, SD): Alright, I guess it’s time to grab a punter. Never played in a league with a punter so didn’t really know when they’d start flying off the board. A few of the higher-ranked ones got drafted, and taking a look at their ‘07 production, there were only a few left that put up consistent points. I heard Scifres is probably one of the best punters in the league, so that’s who I went with. Ha!

34.04 – Clint Session (LB, IND): Another risk-reward pick; a guy I can throw on DTS. Session backs up one of the best LBs in the game, but could have value if there’s ever an injury situation.

35.13 – Najeh Davenport (RB, PIT): What are these people thinking? Always handcuff your stud backs, right? Well not only is Mr. Laundry Basket a good handcuff, but he’s a handcuff that will have value even if who he’s backing up is healthy. Davenport will get carries and I could see 6+ TDs from him this season, healthy Willie Parker or not.

36.04 – Boss Bailey (LB, DEN): At this point, I’m not exactly throwing darts, but pretty close. Bailey’s got a ton of talent and moves to the Mile High City to play a position traditionally not looked at as one that produces fantasy points, but he still could have value, especially if there are injuries or the Broncos decide to shake things up.

37.13 – Jason Elam (PK, ATL): Why not? At this point, value is king. Elam’s one of the best kickers in the game, and now moves to a dome environment, for a team that will struggle to score TDs. Seems like a no-brainer, and even with the best fantasy kicker already on my roster, Elam gives me a solid backup for the weeks the Colts face weather issues, or heck, trade bait!

38.08 – Marcus Pollard (TE, NE): I like this pick. Why? Well, Ben Watson has shown that he can’t fully shake the injury bug and Tom Brady spreads the ball around like nobody’s business. What if Watson goes down for an extended period of time? Pollard could be quite startable.

39.13 – Mike Furrey (WR, DET): Just a few years ago, Furrey was the “Wes Welker of his time”. Furrey’s still got skills, and in a PPR league, will still have value. Especially at the end of this marathon draft.

40.04 – Robert Bernard (DT, SEA): Another need-based pick, as I needed some depth at DT. Bernard has shown spells of unstoppability, especially in getting to the QB. I’ll only need him for a week, really, and if he gets hot, I could spot start him based on matchups.

*Deep breath* Phew, OK, so we’re caught up. Only a few more picks left in this draft. I’ll let you know what ultra-significant picks those are sometime next week. And then don’t wanna miss my rookie draft bloggage. That’ll be sweet!

If Adam Schefter is to be believed—and there’s really no reason to think he shouldn’t—the Dolphins have committed $57.5 million, more than half of it guaranteed, to offensive tackle Jake Long with the first overall pick in the upcoming NFL Draft.

It should come as no surprise to those who know my penchant for offensive linemen that I’m a big fan of this move.

For starters, the Miami depth chart at tackle looks a little something like this:

LT: Vernon Carey, a converted guard
RT: Julius Wilson, an undrafted free agent last season who was signed off their practice squad in December

There are no other tackles on their current roster. So to say Long fills an immediate need for the Dolphins is an understatement along the lines of saying Neil Peart fills a need for a drummer in a Canadian power rock trio.

And while the move may seem to fly in the face of Bill Parcell’s “defense first” philosophy, it makes sense on a couple more levels beyond sheer “need”.

There’s the historical perspective. Since the inception of the NFL Draft, two teams have had the foresight and intelligence to spend the first overall selection on an offensive tackle. The result? Ron Yary (Vikings, 1968) and Orlando Pace (Rams, 1997) have combined for 25 NFL seasons and 14 Pro Bowl appearances. That’s a solid track record of success.

Then there’s the functional perspective. Sure, the Dolphins could draft Matt Ryan first overall, but with no one to protect him he’d be doomed to a fate similar to Tim Couch and David Carr—two first-overall selections with talent who had their potential beaten out of them as they absorbed sack after sack after spleen-bursting sack behind patchwork offensive lines. At a minimum, this approach should give John Beck or Josh McCown a little extra time as they try to prove their worth under center—an approach that worked remarkably well for the Browns and Derek Anderson last season.

And if the Dolphins are still brutal next season they’ll have another opportunity to land a franchise quarterback—one who will be well protected on the blindside.

So go ahead and tweak your draft contest entries. Locking in Jake Long at No. 1 is a freebie, but you still have 30 other slots to fill in.

Last year had an obvious boon in big number quarterbacks – There were seven passers that topped 4000 passing yards. There were just five in 2006 but the biggest increase from last season came with passing touchdowns. In 2006, there were only 648 total touchdown passes thrown in the NFL. In 2007, that number shot up to 720 which does not come solely from Tom Brady’s NFL record 50 scores. It was a big passing year.

So how does that impact your fantasy draft this year? Obviously there will be a big three quarterbacks of interest – Tom Brady, Peyton Manning and Tony Romo. But will that be unheard of? To expect three quarterbacks to be drafted early? You know, when there are actually some scrub running back left to draft instead?

Well last year was not quite the abberation as it may have seemed, only because it came on the heels of two straight seasons with low passing numbers and higher rushing numbers. Consider the total passing scores since 2002 when the NFL went to 32 teams:

2002 – 694
2003 – 654
2004 – 732
2005 – 648
2006 – 648
2007 – 720

Even considering the Brady record, 2007 still did not measure up overall to the passing numbers of 2004 when Daunte Culpepper threw for 4717 yards and 39 scores (and had 406 yards and two scores rushing). It was the year that Peyton Manning threw for 4557 yards and his one-time record 49 passing touchdowns.Donovan McNabb was hardly a slouch himself with 3875 passing yards and 31 touchdowns and he added three more scores and 221 yards via the run.

The next season, the average draft position was Manning (4th), Culpepper (9th) and McNabb (17th). Of course, then each underperformed compared to their draft position. Manning (3747 yds, 28 TDs) was best while McNabb (2506 yds, 16 TD) and Culpepper (1564 yds, 6 TD) both missed about half the season and underperformed while they played. And the NFL as a whole fell to a very low 648 total passing touchdowns which was exactly replicated in 2006 when our serious raiding of running backs actually paid off.

Now 2008 comes and you know that Brady is going to go early. The bigger question is to take the proven production of Peyton Manning or the one-year wonder of Tony Romo? Rest assured – your 2008 draft will be different than the last couple of years. The problem with really big passing seasons in the NFL is that they never sustain themselves the next year. There is nothing wrong per se with taking an earlier, low-risk quarterback but fantasy football loves to remember just last year.

And last year never happens again.