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Earnest Graham Locked In

Posted by Kevin Ratterree in Fantasy Football (Monday June 30, 2008 at 6:51 pm)

There seems to be plenty of doubters about Earnest Graham. And the less than stellar contract given to him by the Buccaneers only seems to have fanned the flames of that doubt. Do not count me in that camp.

Last year I started out an unhappy Cadillac Williams owner in my dynasty league. I didn’t want him on my team, but he had no trade value. After a season ending injury I decided I had seen enough. I picked up Earnest Graham off the waiver wire and dropped Cadillac Williams outright.

And it wasn’t just the injury that inspired me to jettison the Cadillac. What has the guy done in the NFL? He had a handful of good games out of the gate, but since then Williams has been a flat out bust. I have zero faith in Cadillac Williams ever being a meaningful producer. Losing Williams was like having a tumor removed from my fantasy team. The procedure was painful, but my team flourished once the malignancy was gone.

After posting solid PPR numbers last season (ranked 10th RB in PPR scoring) it seems Graham has proved little to some. He is drafted in the 4th round of most mock drafts, and I have yet to see a fantasy service provider ranking him near the top 10 running backs. Why?

Warrick Dunn? Michael Bennett? Please. Come on now.

The Bucs figure to run the ball a bunch, and they need Graham to duplicate his performance from last season.

As a fantasy football bargain shopper, Graham is the exact kind of player I want to target in drafts this season. Plenty of people seem to think last year was a fluke. He is undervalued. In my opinion he is just as good a risk as guys like Ryan Grant that get drafted in the second round. I’m not sure why Graham is being undervalued, but I certainly do appreciate the fantasy community as a whole for doing so.

Graham may lose some carries to Dunn, but even with a 10% reduction in points, he would still be undervalued in this year’s draft.

By year’s end I suspect the Buccaneers and Graham’s fantasy owners will both be thinking they got a bargain.

Graham probably won’t win your fantasy league for you, but the guy you draft instead of your RB2 in the 2nd round might.

32 Teams, 32 Questions – The NFC South

Posted by Darin Tietgen in Fantasy Football (Saturday June 28, 2008 at 3:05 pm)

Atlanta Falcons: Will they give Matt Ryan a chance right from the get-go?

Probably not. They spent a pretty penny on signing him and they want to protect their investment. Now that Bobby Petrino is a name of the past, you might see Joey Harrington actually manage this team effectively. If he can’t, Chris Redman has shown that he is more than serviceable. At this point, it looks like Ryan is going to be holding a clipboard for the foreseeable future.

Carolina Panthers: Are D.J. Hackett and Muhsin Muhammed the kinds of WRs that will help Steve Smith get back to fantasy stardom?

They very well could be. Muhammed had some very solid seasons for the Panthers and even at the ripe age of 35, is supposedly looking “explosive” in team workouts and will definitely be a factor in the Carolina offense. Hackett comes over from the Seahawks, where he never really lived up to his potential. He has had some problems with his knee this summer, but if he can stave off the injury bug, he’ll be a solid #2 to Steve Smith.

But as one “Huddler” has smartly indicated, Steve Smith’s success probably has more to do with the health of QB Jake Delhomme. And as an added bonus, if rookie Jonathan Stewart (or “incumbent” DeAngelo Williams) can run the ball effectively, the passing game will flourish.

New Orleans Saints: Will Reggie Bush will be a fantasy stud this year?

As a Bush owner in a dynasty league, I’m hoping he will be. I’m crossing my fingers that 2007 was the anomaly and 2006 was what we can expect from here on out. But look, even with the downward spiral of the Saint offense last year, Bush still managed more rushing yards than in 2006 (thanks to Deuce McAllister’s injury) in less games. He still managed a whopping 73 receptions. He will again be near or at the top of the leaderboard in terms of catches for a RB. With a healthy Deuce and various improvements to the offense in general, Bush could easily reach super-stud status. This prognosticator (again, with owner glasses maybe being overly hopeful) could see Bush approach 800 rushing yards, grab 85+ receptions, and score 9-10 total TDs.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Warrick Dunn vs. Michael Bennett: which one should I draft (if any)?

Well I guess it depends on the size and scoring of your league. 10 team league? Probably neither one. 12 team league? Ehh, maybe one of these guys. Anything larger than 12 teams and you’re probably grabbing random RBs at the tail end of the draft. So, which one?

I’m gonna say Warrick Dunn without even hesitating. Dunn’s returning to the spot where he had many great seasons and is actually needed. Earnest Graham is a decent pass-catching back (49 receptions in 15 games), but that is Dunn’s bread and butter. Figure the Bucs will lessen Graham’s workload and work in Dunn (and possibly Bennett) in certain situations.

In larger PPR leagues, I’m taking a small gamble with Warrick Dunn. His reception totals have really tailed off since leaving Tampa Bay in 2002, but I wouldn’t be shocked if he caught 50 balls this season. Not bad for a RB taken in one of the last rounds. At worst, he could fill in as a flex back when you’re dealing with bye weeks.

32 Teams, 32 Questions – NFC North

Posted by Darin Tietgen in Fantasy Football (Sunday June 22, 2008 at 6:02 pm)

Chicago Bears: How will the Bears utilize their two solid TEs?

Well the Bears signed Desmond Clark through the 2010 season, so he’s not going anywhere anytime soon. Bad news for Greg Olsen owners? Not really; Clark’s value is in his blocking ability and his presence in the locker room. Olsen is a much better receiver, and you gotta think the Bears will run 2-TE sets at some point in the season. Moreover, it wouldn’t be any shock to see Olsen the starter come mid-season and see Clark in on plays where the TE is a last-resort option.

As a bonus point, Olsen has supposedly been one of the most impressive Bear offensive players in minicamp. He has the size/speed combo necessary to become an elite TE. This could be the year, especially if the Bears get any consistency from their quarterback.

Detroit Lions: Who will have the better fantasy season: Roy Williams or Calvin Johnson?

The easy answer is “they both could have outstanding seasons, but buyer beware”. But let’s dig a bit deeper.

Roy Williams is coming off a rather unimpressive 2007 season where he played in only 12 games and scored a career-low 5 TDs. Johnson had a pretty unimpressive rookie season, especially considering how highly touted he was coming out of college.

Some pundits are telling us to temper our expectations, given the new Lion offense. I would be more concerned with the WRs’ rather vanilla 2007 seasons than the switch to new OC Jim Colletto.

I wouldn’t overpay for either of these WRs in redraft leagues. I think Williams’ game will probably improve from 2007, partially due to the progression of Johnson. That said, it would appear that Williams would be the WR best in line to have a bigger fantasy season. He’ll surpass 1,000 yards quite easily, and will get back to his normal 8-or-so TD total. Johnson will be lucky to approach 1,000 yards, but could also grab 8 or so TDs.

Green Bay Packers: Two words: Aaron Rodgers. Two more words: Can he?

One word: yeah. More words: yeah, why not? He has been studying under Brett Favre for three years, and the Packer WRs are singing his praises so far this summer. Of course they’re going to back him, but it’s nice to hear nonetheless.

Look, the Packers have a terrific receiving corps, one that includes a decent pass-catching back and a good TE. Brett Favre was obviously one of the game’s best, but was always a bit of a gambler along with gunslinger. If Rodgers can keep his cool and get the ball to his playmaking WRs, he might just make Packer fans forget about Favre. Well, maybe not, but he can certainly win games for the green and gold and quell any conversations about a quarterback controversy.

Minnesota Vikings: Will their passing game yield any fantasy action?

How can it not? Well, they do have Tarvaris Jackson at the helm, and this pundit feels the jury’s still out on him. Who else do they have to turn to, though?

The Vikings have one of the NFL’s best run game, a terrific way to get your offense going and open up the passing game. They now have two speedsters in Bernard Berrian and Sidney Rice. But the problem is, Jackson does not throw a good deep ball, so who cares how fast the WRs can get downfield if the QB can’t get them the ball? They’d be best served to stick with the West Coast offensive style with quicker slants to get their burners the ball in a hurry.

Word out of Minneapolis is that Jackson is coming on strong this summer, so he could very well be a deep sleeper pick as a backup QB in redraft leagues in 2008. Stay tuned.

As for the WRs, Bernard Berrian is probably the only fantasy option. Bobby Wade is there as the third WR and could be an interesting PPR league option if you are desperate. As for Sidney Rice, I’d stay away.

So to answer the question at hand, I think the Vikings pass game will improve and actually yield some fantasy output. I’d target Jackson as a sleeper QB and Berrian could be a nice #2 or #3 fantasy WR.

Javon Walker – Trouble stalker

Posted by Kevin Ratterree in Fantasy Football (Thursday June 19, 2008 at 7:14 am)

It seems like only yesterday that Javon Walker was an up and coming player in the NFL. Now he finds himself and up and coming player in a game of russian roulette.

I don’t recall exactly how I was at 29, but there were a few things I’m pretty sure most of us knew by then.

a) Don’t go out and get hammered with a giant wad of cash and bling on you.

b) If you do get hammered with a giant wad of cash you, you don’t walk down dark back alley-ways in Vegas, and damn sure not by yourself.

c) When you are hammered in a club and you start spraying people with expensive champagne, some people gonna get mad.

d) There are some bad people that get mad and would think nothing of killing you and taking your stuff.

e) Telling lies to the media about being kidnapped from your heavily video secured Vegas suite, probably not the best idea. The last thing big money casinos need is bad press.

f) If someone you know gets killed, you should probably take notice of how it happened and try to avoid similar situations.

These aren’t difficult things. I mean if you are dangling a couple of new Escalades around your neck, people are bound to notice. Might want to watch your back.

That champagne rain hobby has tragically now cost one life and one severe beating. You’ve got much better odds with skydiving. Unless you are doing it with a bunch of bling on and wasted. Probably about the same odds there.

I understand that todays modern athlete has a disconnect with the average joe more so than ever what with the giant piles of cash laying around and what not. But doesn’t common sense come into the picture at some point? Where is the self preservation?

I really have no concept of what it would be to be filthy rich, but I can’t imagine it would bore me to the point where giving champagne baths to the peasants would become a hobby I would pursue, especially at the risk of my own life.

If that is what wealth does to a person I think I’ll pass.

Mr. Walker has some issues. Very sad. Let’s hope he can get them worked out.

Let’s see now, some NFL team gave this guy a contract, who was that again…oh yeah.

Suggestion for Al Davis. New hobby. Don’t make any phone calls or sign any deals. Don’t have any meetings. Just grab a couple of knapsacks full of 20s, head to your office, and start lighting them one at a time in between naps. Probably cost you less in the long run and the team might actually break the 4 win plateau. I’m just saying…

32 Teams, 32 Questions – AFC West

Posted by Darin Tietgen in Fantasy Football (Monday June 16, 2008 at 8:41 am)

Denver Broncos: Who are these RBs and which one(s) should I draft come the end of summer?

As for the who:

Selvin Young is a 2nd year player out of the University of Texas. Young went undrafted and was signed by the Broncos in April of 2007. He ended up rushing for 729 yard and caught 35 passes for 231 yards. He’s definitely considered the front-runner for the starting RB position, but with HC Mike Shanahan’s track record in how he deals with RBs, one never can be so sure.

Andre Hall was named the primary backup to Young as the team’s mini-camp came to an end. Hall looked like a big-time sleeper last year as he also got reps running with the first team, but Young outplayed him. Sources close to the Broncos are saying that the starting job is not settled yet, but Hall likely does not figure into the starting mix. It will probably come down to Young and rookie Ryan Torain.

Michael Pittman is an 11-year pro, signed by Denver this offseason to add some veteran depth to the Denver backfield. Pittman is a terrific pass-catching back (with seasons of 75 and 73 catches under his belt), however he hasn’t had more than 70 carries in a season since 2004. Pittman’s best days are definitely behind him, but it isn’t a stretch to say Pittman may have some value in PPR leagues.

And finally, rookie Ryan Torain, who could have a shot at the starting gig if Young falters in camp or pre-season. Torain’s running style suits the Broncos offense, and Shanahan is known for pulling the rug out from under fantasy owners in terms of RBs, so it wouldn’t be too huge of a shock to see the rookie starting come September. Torain had a pedantic senior campaign at ASU, but his junior season was stellar: 1,229 yards on a 5.5 ypc rate, 7 TDs and 18 catches for 205 yards and 3 receiving scores.

So which Bronco RB(s) should you draft? Speaking of re-drafts, common sense says Selvin Young, as he’s penciled in to start, and had a nice 2007 season. But again, Shanahan could shake things up quite easily, so re-drafters could also take a stab at Ryan Torain. Michael Pittman could be snagged late in drafts of larger PPR leagues as he figures to get some playing time in spelling the younger backs. Andre Hall is all but off the radar, more than likely.

Kansas City Chiefs: After Dwayne Bowe, is there any WR worth a darn on this team, fantasy-wise?

Sadly, the answer could be “no”. The 2nd WR spot is open to Jeff Webb, Devard Darling and rookie Will Franklin. Webb is entering his third season, and sources indicate that the Chiefs like him better in a reserve role. Darling appears to be the best candidate to start, after coming over from the Ravens. He did have 18 catches, 3 of which were for TDs, in 2007. Promising numbers, but nothing to get too excited about. And finally, enter rookie Will Franklin. Franklin supposedly has solid hands to go along with his proven quickness; qualities that could easily line him up as the Chiefs’ second WR. With 2nd year pro Dwayne Bowe firmly entrenched as the number-one, the Chiefs’ receiving corps could be the youngest in the league.

So to answer the question, Darling could have some value if he can stave off the rookie Franklin. But it would probably best behoove you to wait until the last round of your draft and snag Franklin as a deep sleeper.

Oakland Raiders: Is Zach Miller ready to break out this season?

I’m going to say yes. Heck, I’ll say absolutely yes. Miller had 44 catches last year, for a horrible Raider team last season, and with the offense looking much stronger this season, Miller could easily top 50+ catches this season. He’ll definitely top his 3 TDs from last season too. Best indicator of his potential to break out: he came on strong at the end of the season, logging games of 3-27-1 and 8-84 to end the 2007 campaign.

San Diego Chargers: Is there another Michael Turner on this team?

I’m going to sit on the fence and say “maybe”. On first blush, you’d say that Darren Sproles is best poised to take this role, but Sproles is only 5’7” and 180 lbs. (soaking wet), while Turner is a solid 5’10” and 237 lbs. Sproles is a kick returner and spot, change of pace RB at best. He is no Michael Turner.

But the list doesn’t stop with Sproles. Two rookies have a decent chance at “pulling a Turner”. First, let’s look at LSU’s Jacob Hester. Hester is built more like Turner, lining up at 6’ and 224 lbs. It was first thought that Hester would just be a backup to LT, but in mini-camp, Hester lined up at fullback, halfback, and even as a wide receiver, blocker and tight end flanker. Hester’s flexibility, more than his size, will get him on the field and potentially ending up as a Michael Turner –esque player.

Behind LT and Hester is rookie Marcus Thomas. Thomas also has good size (almost too good) at 6’2”, 215 lbs., and had a solid senior season at UTEP (1,166 yards and 16 TDs). Thomas is also a good candidate to run as LT’s primary backup, partially due to the spots the Chargers are using Hester in off-season workouts.

It took Michael Turner three full seasons to develop into a bonafide starter (although he had to spend an additional season as a backup) and it’s unclear at this point whether Hester or Thomas have what Turner brought to the Bolts. They are both very talented, so it’s not a huge stretch to say one of these guys develops into a solid NFL starter.

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