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Countdown to WCOFF – T-minus one week and counting…

Posted by Darin Tietgen in Fantasy Football (Saturday August 30, 2008 at 6:15 pm)

For those of you that don’t know what WCOFF stands for, it’s the World Championship of Fantasy Football. There are some that try to imitate, but WCOFF’s the best and the brightest, at least in my opinion. In no way am I trying to “pimp” them, I’m just entering my third season in having a team (well, I’m a co-owner with five others) and am beyond pumped up for the event.

WCOFF takes a ridiculous amount of preparation. Again, for those that don’t know, there are 60-some-odd 12-team leagues, each playing an 11-week “regular” season. The league “champ” moves on to the final rounds, where lower-scoring teams are eliminated each week. People from all over the country descend upon Las Vegas (and Dallas and Atlantic City, I believe) this coming Saturday for a chance at a ton of coin, an awesome trophy, and a trip to the Super Bowl. So the preparation has been long and taxing, but well worth it.

So for the next few days, I’ll describe – for one reason or another – what I’m doing to prepare. Both for the draft and for the chaos that will surely ensue when you get 20+ fantasy footballers from TheHuddle.com together.

Today has been interesting. It’s a week off, and we are just now getting together our teams’ (we have two this year, between the six of us) consensus rankings. One of our teams pick from the 4-hole, and the other (the one I’m going to draft with another co-owner) has the 12 pick. We certainly like both of these spots, for very different reasons. Can’t get TOO in-depth with the why’s, and the who’s (in terms of who we are targeting), but through mock drafts, we’ve found that both teams can net great results. That’s exciting.

Since I just returned from a business trip, the suitcase is already out, and is literally begging me to fill it with a few pairs of shorts, t-shirts, sandals and various “Huddle goodies” for the trip out to Vegas. My flight leaves Thursday afternoon, and I’m counting the hours.

A pocket full of hunches

Posted by David Dorey in Fantasy Football (Friday August 29, 2008 at 1:07 am)

This is one of the fun times of year. After spending months analyzing teams, projecting and ranking players it will finally happen. After having been in well over a dozen mock and real drafts and a few auctions, it finally happens. After wading through our message board’s insights, prognostications and occasional lunacy, it will happen.

The season is going to start and show us how right and wrong we were. As of this moment, I am claiming everything to be in the “right” column.

There are plenty of hard stats, depth charts and NFL schedules but as much as we want to believe we can turn fantasy football into some science, it all too often ends up art. Which is a kind way of saying “I did not see that coming”.

Every year there are a handful of hunches that I have and some pan out and others fall ridiculously flat. So before the season starts, I thought I would list a few of the hunches that I have. Ones that have absolutely no basis in fact or that can be explained by anything more than “it just seems it is bound to happen”. I allow some to affect my personal drafting though mostly not. And then later I kick myself for taking “X” when I had a funny, unexplained feeling.

So, my baseless, ludicrous hunches that I cannot explain for 2008 are:

1. Got a bad feeling about Tom Brady and Peyton Manning and more than the injuries that dogged them this summer. The Pats and Colts have been up for so long it just seems both teams are overdue for the brutal year of injuries or something similar. Probably just fears about what each team would be without Brady or Manning (shudder).

2. Have a good feeling about Matt Ryan in Atlanta. A rookie QB is nothing you want to deal with in fantasy football, much less one on a rebuilding team. It is probably that I want him to excel because “Matt Ryan” is just as short as “Tom Brady” and when you write a name 50 billion times in a season, you appreciate brevity. And you hate Ben Roethlisberger and T.J. Houshmandzadeh.

3. I really do think this is the year of the rookie running back. Look, I know – rookie anything is fraught with risk. And in this day of committee backfields, what constitutes a good running back anymore? Maybe this is because I am still ticked that I let a friend buy Adrian Peterson for $45 (of $500) in our dynasty auction last year and that will haunt me for years. But there are no less than ten rookie runners that should turn in stats of some significance this year. I guess I am also an optimist in my heart of hearts. Drafting rookie running backs is like getting hooked on crack. Hmm… just one more…. just one more… Ray Rice? I’ll take him too! Tim Hightower! Sure!

4. Oh yeah, I have a hunch that the Pats are going to have top 5 running back numbers and you will never know which one to use in any given week. Actually that would be more fact that hunch other than the top 5 part. After last year, having a big rushing year in 2008 just seems like it should happen.

5. I got a hunch that there will be no big difference maker in tight end this year. Oh, there will be some good tight ends but so many that almost every team gets one. Go grab another rookie running back and wait on your tight end.

6. I know that Westbrook always misses one game each season. All I am saying is that if I owned him, and I do not, I would want to own Correll Buckhalter. That’s all I am saying.

7. The Bengals will implode this year. Sure, they lose their share of games but the offense always had several players worthy of fantasy starts. They scare me to death this year and I cannot exactly figure out why. Just got a hunch it is going to be a long, unhappy year for them. Not sure exactly why… but there it is.

8. Okay, maybe not so much a hunch but I would not touch a Houston running back this year. I have a feeling that none of them will have more than 15 carries in four consecutive games this year and that includes all six backs that will eventually have at least 20 carries for the Texans. Including Cedric Benson by the way.

9. Last year was the season of injured running backs. I got a hunch that it will be quarterbacks that are getting sent to the sidelines the most this year. Think about it – you have several top quarterbacks get hurt, that really changes the fortunes of many associated fantasy players like RB, WR and TE. We haven’t had a big injury year for QBs in a while. What scares me the most is that this has been the most healthy preseason I can remember. No players of fantasy note have been injured let alone lost for the season. Kevin Curtis is about as bad as it gets and that ain’t bad. I got a hunch some mad mojo is just waiting for the regular season so we will have good reason when we announce what a screwy, wierd year this is. We do that every year anyway, but we will have better reasons in 2008.

10. I have a very strong hunch that I am going to win almost every league I am in. No matter that my ten teams all have different rosters, I just got a good feeling about my fantasy fortunes this year. How can I possibly lose? With ten teams stocked with productive veterans and tons of upside players ready to explode, I almost feel sorry for my leaguemates.

Oh yeah… the season is about to start…

Carolina On My Mind

Posted by John Tuvey in Fantasy Football (Thursday August 28, 2008 at 2:34 am)

First, let me say unabashedly that the NFL Network is the greatest invention ever. I just sat down to the replay of the Redskins-Panthers preseason tilt and gave my thumb a serious workout with the DVR. It was like watching game films all over again and has ratcheted my excitement for the coming season up to 11.

Yes, I know this was a preseason game against a defense that was already down a couple linebackers and lost Jason Taylor early in the contest. That said, color me impressed with the Carolina blues. Here are some tidbits I noticed during the action I watched that helped solidify my faith in the Carolina offense this fantasy season.

• Jake Delhomme looked confident and accurate. He was hit a couple times more than I’d like to see from a guy quarterbacking my fantasy squad in multiple leagues, but it’s not like I entered any of my drafts or auctions unaware that Delhomme was an injury risk. Of particular note were some bullets he fired to receivers other than Steve Smith and a touchdown at the end of the first half in which he recognized the blitz, changed the play at the line of scrimmage, set up the protection, then dropped a perfectly placed pass over the defender into the arms of Dante Rosario (who wasn’t even supposed to be here today). Looks like the wing is fine.

• As for Smith, he continues to play angry. He’ll return in Week 3 against a Vikings team that held him to 201 yards on 11 catches the last time he faced them. I sure hope I’m not facing Smith in any of my fantasy leagues in Week 3.

• I was admonished by a regular reader for failing to mention Jonathan Stewart in my last blog entry. Here’s the problem: everybody else is piling on the J-Stew bandwagon and taking him before I have the opportunity, so he’s on just of my teams thus far. Obviously the 50-yard touchdown run was sweet, but on two different occasions I noticed Stewart successfully picking up the blitz—once slowing up an outside rusher, the other on the above-mentioned touchdown when Delhomme pointed out the blitzing middle linebacker and Stewart stood him up and afforded Jake a clear throwing lane. May seem like a sniggling detail, but running backs who can’t pass protect take a seat on third down and rookie backs are notoriously incompetent at this particular skill. There’s no question Carolina coaches saw what I saw, which may help expedite Stewart’s ascension to the two-thirds portion of the workload I am anticipating.

• On both Stewart’s long touchdown run and the follow-up by DeAngelo Williams, fullback Brad Hoover made absolutely critical blocks that set each play in motion. While I like what the Carolina line has done this offseason to turn itself into a run-blocking power, Hoover might very well be the key to the fantasy success of both Williams and Stewart. If he is injured at any point this season, it might be a wise time to sell high on your Carolina backs in a redraft league.

• Also worth noting is the downfield blocking of the wide receivers. I saw Dwayne Jarrett make a very nice block on one of Stewart’s runs, which—like Stewart’s pass protection—might expedite his path to playing time. Something to keep in mind if you’re banking on D.J. Hackett as a sleeper this season: it’s tough to make catches when you’re not on the field, and with the Panthers primarily a running team the downfield blocking of Muhsin Muhammad and Jarrett might be more important to John Fox than Hackett’s pass-catching ability.

The Draft Report

Posted by Kevin Ratterree in Fantasy Football (Monday August 25, 2008 at 6:31 pm)

I just wrapped up a 12 team PPR draft. In this league the starting lineups are: QB/2RB/3WR/TE/Flex-no qb/D/K

I drafted 12th continuing my lifelong tendency to draft from the bottom of the order. As such I took a pretty aggressive draft plan going in. Here is what I did and why I did it.

1:12/2:1 – Fitzgerald – Andre Johnson: Moss and Owens were already off the board. I wanted 2 stud receivers here because in this format they don’t last long, and to me are better bets than the questionable RBs left at this point. These are not the #3 and #4 guys on most people’s WR cheat sheets. I could have (and maybe should have) went Edwards and Wayne. That would have been the “safe route, if there is a safe route drafting WR/WR. Fitz is at the point in his career where he has his game and his life together and is just now entering his prime years. I suspected that Leinart wouldn’t keep his job long, and within 24 hours after the draft, we hear rumors that Warner will indeed be the starter. Bingo. With Andre Johnson it is really just a question of health. The guy is a monster, and could put up T.O. type numbers if he can stay healthy for 14 games. He is the one stud receiver that is THE focal point of his offense. I just liked him better than anybody else available. If he plays, I win.

3:12/4:1 – Witten – Graham: Drafted the best TE for a distinct advantage at that position, and Graham was the only RB left that made any sense at that point. RBs were picked pretty clean by now as I expected – Edge James and Willie Parker were drafted much later in the round and I have no interest in either of those guys. As you know if you read this blog I have been pimping Graham like nobody’s business, so I put my money wher my mouth is with this pick. All four of my top picks were expensive according to the average draft position, but all I care about is drafting the team I really want to draft, and so far ,outside of Owens I have got everybody I had targeted.

5:12/6:1 – Roddy White – Chris Johnson: Roddy White gives me a strong 3rd receiver, and according to the Huddle PPR rankings I now own 3 of the top 15 at the position. I felt it was crucial to grab Chris Johnson, albeit at an inflated price. I think this guy is going to tear it up in PPR leagues. Chris Johnson is the pick in the draft that could make or break my team. Big reach, but I knew damn well that he wouldn’t make it back around to 7:12.

I’m depending on a rookie running back in an RBBC to come through as my RB2. But in reality Johnson is my shot at a #1. This is the guy that can make up the ground in the points I lost by not getting an RB with my first 2 picks. If Johnson finds his way into the top 12 in RB PPR scoring, I am gold. You have to hit a sleeper or two to win a league. I like my chances here better than anywhere on the board.

7:12/8:1 – Stallworth – Chester Taylor: A bit of a reach for Stallworth. Berrian was the guy I was targeting but he was snagged at 7:11. Stallworth was the 35th receiver off the board – so from that perspective he was fair value here. Chester Taylor should still put up some numbers in that run-happy offense. And in the not so unlikely event that Peterson misses some time Taylor would be a gold mine. At worst Taylor would be fine for a flex option. The real beauty of this pick was that the guy who drafted Adrian Peterson did not get his handcuff, instead opting for Lendale White in the 7th round, 10 picks after I drafted Chris Johnson. With the way I envision things shaking out this season, I won that exchange big time. We will see.

9:12/10:1 – Schaub – Eddie Royall: I’m on the Schaub bandwagon so I have no problem taking him here. QBs are still plentiful at this point but I wanted to make sure I got the guy I wanted. I can collect a few more later. Eddie Royal is definitely a reach. I probably won’t need him, but considering the Broncos woes at WR, he has a real shot at outperforming his draft position which was 45th WR off the board. That being said, I still have not gotten any players in this draft at a bargain to their ADP. The other drafters are pretty sharp and I am not getting the value I normally expect from this draft position. I am paying “top dollar” for every player, so I better be right most of the time.

11:12/12:1 – Pierre Thomas – Kitna: I really like what happened at this turn. My whole draft plan hinged on hitting on a sleeper running back or two, and Thomas looks to me like potential sleeper gold. The Reggie Bush owner in this league drafted McAllister as a handcuff in round 9, but I think he may have got the wrong guy. Are McAllister’s knees really going to let him carry the load? I think not. Kitna is decent insurance against Schaub bombing out, and the quarterbacks turn out to be the only value picks in this draft. I am glad I did not opt for a big-time QB in this draft

13:12/14:1 – Gaffney – W. Dunn: With Gaffney I was once again desperately trying to find any receiver depth. Really getting down to scrubs at this point and I figure a scrub for the best passing team in the league is a better bet than most. Warrick Dunn is Earnest Graham insurance and a pretty cheap price. Insurance in case Chucky Gruden decides that a 33 year old running back should carry the load for his team. Dunn might actually be a decent flex option in deep PPR leagues like this as well.

15:12/16:1 – Tarvaris Jackson – Gostkowski: I don’t usually feel the need to carry 3 QBs, but this is a non trading league so thought I better cover my ass. Call me crazy but I think Jackson might actually put up some numbers this year. And Gostkowski? A kicker before the last round? That is against my FF religion, but I broke my rules. My thought here was I felt pretty solid about my team so far with no desperate needs and no real bargains screaming out at me on the draft board. What the hell. I got the best kicker. It can’t hurt I guess.

17:12/18:1 – Lamont Jordan – Laurent Robinson: We have seen other down and out players that find their way on the Patriots roster brought back from the dead. Could Jordan be next? Dunno. Worth a shot at this point in the draft. Robinson will probably end up a starter on a team that figures to play from behind most Sundays. And he showed some flashes last year. I picked him up late in a few of my drafts.

19:12/20:01 – Eagles D / Keller - I love pulling one of the last defenses or kickers drafted and still ending up with a top 10. I’ll take my shot with a defense most have given up on. Keller is a tight end on a Brett Favre team, ’nuff said.

My draft plan was to be strongest in the league at WR & TE and hope I could piece together a running back crew that resembled respectability. That was also the plan of the guy drafting 11th, so we ended up building similar teams.

I really wanted a few more stronger sleeper picks at RB but missed out on 2 guys I was targeting (Norwood, Hightower) that would have made me feel better about this draft. But overall I think I accomplished what I set out to do. Success for this team will hinge on the health of Andre Johnson, Earnest Graham continuing to do close to what he did last year, and Chris Johnson living up to the hype. If those three things happen I should be in the hunt for a championship. If not, it could be a struggle.

But that wasn’t even my wildest draft. I drafted one team from the 6 hole and didn’t take a running back until the 6th round. In this league you are only required to start one RB. That enticed me to take my strategy into overdrive, ignoring running backs until the 6th and then loading up on sleepers. I found the going much easier in this one and the other drafters played right into my strategy. Here is how that one went:

Moss
Colston
Romo
Winslow
R. White
J Stewart RB
Chris Johnson RB
Berrian
C. Perry RB
Pierre Thomas RB
Norwood RB
Utecht
Gage
Tarvaris Jackson
Leon Washington RB
Phil D
Mason Crosby
JT O’Sullivan

I love this team. Getting a strong core at all the other positions early gave me great freedom to go on a sleeper RB binge the likes of which I have never seen. I grabbed all of them I wanted – when I wanted. The only guy I did not get that I wanted was Hightower. All I need is for one or two of these running back sleepers to hit and I am gold. Gold Jerry!

Here is a list of players that ended up on more than one of my teams:

Roddy White
Berrian
Schaub
Chester Taylor
Tarvaris Jackson
Meachem
Chris Johnson (I snagged this guy in ALL of my drafts)
Pierre Thomas (every team except one)
Phil D
Mason Crosby
Laurent Robinson
Stallworth
Hightower
Gage

I hope you had as much fun with your drafts as I did. We will see if my wild weekend fling away from conventional drafting will result in the birth of any champions, or Rosemary’s baby.

Three Guys Who Have Never Been In My Kitchen

Posted by John Tuvey in Fantasy Football (Monday August 25, 2008 at 12:57 pm)

Carson Palmer. Frank Gore. Plaxico Burress.

I’d throw in Tom Brady, too, but he’s got quite a reputation as a player and my wife has been walking around with a little extra spring in her step lately so I can’t be 100 percent sure.

Yes, this blog’s title refers to Cliff Claven’s famous Final Jeopardy response from a favorite episode of “Cheers”. And while in the case of Palmer, Gore, and Burress it’s true—they’ve never even called, let alone visited—it also serves a dual purpose. Of the multiple leagues I’m participating in this year, I always find it interesting to find out which guys don’t wind up on one of my many teams—and then try to figure out why.

In some cases it could be that I have bad draft positions—for example, if I didn’t have an ace or deuce this year, LT and Adrian Peterson would be candidates for the list. By and large, however, it’s because a whole bunch of fellow league members value a player more than I, to the point that said players are already off the draft board by the time I get around to considering them for my roster.

The poster children for that syndrome in 2008 are Palmer, Gore, and Burress.

I still have Palmer as the No. 5 quarterback on my draft board. But there’s not just a tier between the top four (Brady, Manning, Romo, Brees) and the rest of the position, there’s a chasm. During the mock season I found myself going after an elite quarterback a little more frequently than I might typically, to see what kind of teams I would field. For the most part, I didn’t like the way those teams turned out. With six of nine teams laying something (money or reputation) on the line already formed, only twice have I pursued one of the elite quarterbacks. In both cases I’m a little thin at wide receiver, but overall pleased with the way the teams turned out. That’s why when the first four quarterbacks are gone I mentally cross that position off the wish list for a couple rounds; I like the value better in the later rounds.

Gore is a guy I just can’t bring myself to take in Round One, and by the time it gets back to me in Round Two someone else has grabbed him. He’s not among my first eight backs, and once he comes into play I’m already thinking about going with Randy Moss or Reggie Wayne and waiting on backs until the third or fourth round. It’s not that I don’t believe Gore is supremely talented; it’s his supporting cast, from pass-happy offensive coordinator Mike Martz to journeyman quarterback J.T. O’Sullivan to an offensive line that is at least a year or two away from being a helper rather than an impediment. I believe Gore’s numbers will be much more like Kevin Jones’ Detroit stats than Marshall Faulk’s “Greatest Show on Turf” era digits; hence the hesitation to pay a first-round price.

You’d think I’d be more welcoming to Burress after capitalizing on his run over the first half of last season in multiple leagues. I’m not averse to spending Sunday morning waiting for the inactives list to make sure a questionable player will be on the field. But after watching Burress suck it up on an weekly basis all last season, get his ring, and then not get the paycheck he was expecting… I’m just not comfortable banking on him to do it all again. He’s already a little nicked up, the Giants will be playing all year long with a target on their backs, and that offense is more effective when it’s running the ball. Finally, while I thoroughly enjoyed watching Eli Manning bring down the Packers and Patriots last postseason and understand he’ll enter this season with more confidence (and endorsements) thanks to last year’s results, he’s one great-escape-and-throw-to-a-guy-who-catches-the-ball-on-his-helmet away from being just another Manning who can’t win big games. Remember, he led the NFL in interceptions last season and his postseason per-game numbers (213 yards, 1.5 touchdowns) weren’t a dramatic jump up from his regular season production (208 and 1.4). I don’t anticipate him regressing, but it’s not as if there will be another 1,000 yards and half-dozen touchdowns for Plax to be chasing after.

So the A-list invites have been sent out, and evidently there’s just no room for Palmer, Gore, and Plax in my kitchen. Not with Jake Delhomme and Robert Meachem (four teams each) at the table and Santonio Holmes, Zach Miller, and Josh Scobee (three teams each) fighting for elbow room at the breakfast bar.

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