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Ryan Grant Hand Wringing

Posted by Kevin Ratterree in Fantasy Football (Tuesday September 30, 2008 at 5:03 pm)

I spent the better part of the pre-season hyping Ryan Grant. So far I look pretty dumb, and so do you if you took my advice. Sorry about that. Since I helped you get in this mess, let me tell you what I am doing about it. Nothing.

Though I realize he will not be the monster producer this season Ithought he would be due to his horrible first 4 weeks, I still feel confident he will help my fantasy team this season yet. Yes, there is a chance that his hamstring injury will rear it’s ugly head again. I know that. But if I can assume that the worst of that is behind us, I think there are bright days ahead.

Keep in mind that Grant only came into the picture at mid-season last year. Before he took the starters role the Packers were basically a passing team, much like they have been so far this season. The offensive line for the Packers has been decent in pass protection, but somewhat lacking in run blocking. That, added to Grant’s hammy has just not been a great recipe for success in the rushing game.

But I look at it like this. Grant has faced three of the better run defenses in the league on a bad wheel and came up flat. The schedule is about to ease up, Grant is supposedly 100% now. And after Rodgers got knocked around last week I wouldn’t be surprised if the Packers try to ramp up that running game. I’m not trying to blow smoke up your chute here, I really truly believe this guy will be a force down the stretch when you need him most. I do not think you should bail on him.

Lots of people are labeling him a bust. Lots of negativity. If you think you are going to need a running back down the stretch (and who doesn’t) Grant would appear the ideal “buy low” candidate to me. If you didn’t draft him, think about dealing for him. If someone in your league drops him, grab him. If you did draft him, hold on. That’s my advice. The same guy that told you the Packers would be fine without Favre.

Lots of people would not draft Grant this season due to the change at quarterback. But as we have seen over the first month of the season, those fears were unfounded, and not at all part of the problem here. Rodgers has plenty of game to keep defenses from stacking the line. That is not an issue. The issue is Grant’s hamstring. And supposedly that is healed now.

Patience.

If Grant still sucks by the time his bye week comes it might be time to cut the cord. But I think if you cut him now you are making a mistake. If I am wrong I invite you to come back here after week 7 and give me the most vile verbal lashing you can squeeze through the editing system. I’m all in.

Wrestling with WR Rankings

Posted by John Tuvey in Fantasy Football (Tuesday September 30, 2008 at 4:02 pm)

One of the tasks I’m charged with here at The Huddle is updating the Rest of the Season Player Rankings. It’s an inexact science, to be sure, a delicate balance between past performance and future projections, and despite my best efforts to provide a look at what will happen the rest of the way it changes from week to week.

This season in particular, I’m facing a particularly difficult challenge with the ongoing wide receiver rankings. What seemed to be a pretty rock-solid position heading into the season has been blindsided by some major-league underperforming; as the not-so-proud fantasy owner of a Braylon Edwards-Santonio Holmes tandem in multiple leagues, believe me when I tell you I am suffering right alongside the rest of you.

Consider the preseason elite who thus far have been anything but: Edwards, Holmes, Randy Moss, Chad Johnson, Torry Holt, Andre Johnson, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, and Roy Williams were all sure-fire fantasy starters before Kickoff Weekend; none are sure things heading into Week 5. Factor in Marques Colston’s injury and the additional bye weeks (due to suspension) for Steve Smith, Brandon Marshall, and Plaxico Burress and the position has quickly become a quagmire.

Crystallizing the frustrations of the position: the dilemma I faced today when trying to compile a going-forward ranking I felt good about. I made it all the way to Greg Jennings at No. 6 before it all fell apart. The next two names on the list—Anquan Boldin and Burress—probably won’t even play this week. Then it’s Dwayne Bowe and Calvin Johnson, representing two of the league’s worst teams this year. Do you like Andre Johnson and his almost limitless potential (and drops and injury history) or the fact that Jason Campbell appears to not only have figured out Jim Zorn’s WCO but also locked in on Santana Moss? Do you trust Randy Moss to stay interested, Lee Evans to contribute consistently, or Brett Favre to keep finding Laveranues Coles with three money balls a game?

The last couple of weeks I’ve heard from readers who didn’t agree with Wes Welker’s ranking. Some of you will be happy to note that Welker has moved down this week, primarily because the touchdowns just don’t seem to be there this year; I still think he’ll end up as the go-to guy in an offense that has shown no inclination to go long, but what the Pats do coming back from their bye will go a long way towards shaping the future values of both Welker and Moss.

Another popular beef was the ranking of Kevin Walter ahead of Eddie Royal and DeSean Jackson. It would be silly to point at Walter’s two-touchdown outing last week and say “scoreboard” because I don’t know that will continue; in fact, Jackson moves to the fore of this trio despite the return of Reggie Brown and pending return of Kevin Curtis because it’s obvious the Eagles are trying to get the ball into his hands. I still fear the rookie wall for both Jackson and Royal, but as frustrating as the rankings got past the top six “sure things”… well, it gets even messier down in the 20s and 30s. I’m convinced I could finish the WR rankings, walk away for five minutes, then come back and if I had to re-rank them from scratch have more than two-thirds of the players in a different spot.

On a page that ranks 269 players and team defenses there simply isn’t enough room to explain the logic, however convoluted, that goes into the rankings. But I’m more than willing to listen to feedback on them, and in all likelihood will get back to you and let you know what—if anything—I was thinking. They’re an ongoing work in progress, and your comments will at least make me consider all viewpoints—maybe even yours—the next time I sit down and try to splice a difference between Derrick Mason, Antonio Bryant, and Justin Gage in the low 40s.

Loosening the Tight End Market

Posted by Darin Tietgen in Fantasy Football (Monday September 29, 2008 at 7:35 am)

What the heck is going on with the tight end position this season? I’m actually in a league that does not require you to start a TE (you can start one as a WR if you elect to). Is this an antiquated league, or are we on to something? Back in the day, there were really only a handful of TEs you could rely on. Then, as the position began to “develop” a bit, it was much easier to draft and rely on a TE. Are we headed back to “the day” where tight ends are really at a premium; where there are a few guys you can rely on, and then a bunch of fluff? Let’s take a look at a few names:

1. Jason Witten (DAL): No surprise he’s the top scoring TE. This guy is good. Clearly Tony Romo’s favorite target. He keeps the chains moving and makes catches that he really shouldn’t.

2. Zach Miller (OAK) and Greg Olsen (CHI): These young bucks stink up the joint for three weeks and then blow up (Miller goes for 5 catches, 95 yards and a score; Olsen has 4 catches, 35 yards and a score). I’m sure people will jump all over these guys, searching for a steady producer at the TE position. Do I blame them? Of course not.

3. Todd Heap (BAL): This guy’s not even in the top-25 at his position. OK, we’ll give him the benefit of the doubt, as of press time for this blog he hadn’t played in Week 4, and the Ravens had an unscheduled bye. But just goes to show, you can’t rely on TEs out of the first tier.

4. Anthony Fasano (MIA): Or wait, maybe you can rely on some guys outside the first tier. Fasano threw up a goose egg in Week 2, but averaged 19 fantasy points in Weeks 1 and 3. Some feel the Dolphins’ acquiring of Fasano was a bit of a steal. They may be right.

5. Kevin Boss (NYG): Come on. Did you really think this guy would be as good as Jeremy Shockey? Anywhere close to Jeremy Shockey? Sorry Charlie, you can hate Jeremy Shockey, but that guy is a gamer, and Boss is an average tight end.

Speaking of Jeremy Shockey, I expect him to come back strong for the Saints. He had a couple of very solid efforts for the Saints before getting injured. If he’s able to come back 100% (read: not force the issue), he’ll be one of the steadier TEs to round out the 2008 season. Another couple TE names I’m looking at here as we move to Week 5 are Houston’s Owen Daniels and Minnesota’s Vishanthe Shiancoe .

Daniels was my top TE sleeper of 2008, and hasn’t really disappointed. He “only” had 3 catches for 33 yards in the Texans’ opener, causing some impatient owners to question his ability. Sigh. After the unscheduled bye, Daniels had 11.1 and 15.7 fantasy points in Week 3 and 4. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: if there’s going to be anyone to challenge Jason Witten for TE supremacy (in PPR formats) in the next couple of years, it’s Daniels.

Vishante Shiancoe, you say? Yes, yes I do. Look at the numbers. Realize why it’s not a fluke. Numbers with Tarvaris Jackson under center: 4.2 fantasy points per game. Numbers with the grizzly vet Gus Frerotte under center: 10.3 fantasy points per game. I shouldn’t need to tell you to go out and grab Shiancoe if he’s available in your league and you’ve been relying on one-week wonders like Dante Rosario or guys like Kevin Boss.

Hope this helps you get a better idea of the tight end market in 2008. Don’t agree with me? Loosen up, people… it’s a very tight market in fantasy football this season. Get used to it.

Sacrificial Ram

Posted by Kevin Ratterree in Fantasy Football (Friday September 26, 2008 at 5:06 am)

Desperate times call for desperate measures. And nothing smacks more of desperation than the Rams mind-boggling switch at quarterback this week.

In my opinion, Trent Green shouldn’t even be in the league right now. Yes, he can still play. But one more good hit and he might be playing with drool covered building blocks for the forseeable future. I think it was irresponsible for doctors to allow Trent Green to continue playing football. I think it was irresponsible for Trent Green to decide to continue to do so. It was irresponsible for the Rams to sign Green as a backup. And Linehan is irresponsible for making this move to start Green over Bulger.

If you look at the numbers, the quarterback is not the problem for the Rams. The defense and ineffective offensive line are. Allowing over 30 points a game does not exactly put your quarterback in the best position to win games. But Linehan can’t replace his entire defense or the entire offensive line. He can replace his quarterback, which gives the illusion that he is trying to fix the problem. But he isn’t even fooling himself with this move.

Bulger has been sacked 11 times. That is almost 4 sacks a game. Trent Green is not likely to survive a typical Rams effort this week, and the Bills are hardly going to call off the dogs just because irresponsible doctors cleared an irresponsible player to take the field for an irresponsible coach.

I am not wondering whether this move will reverse the Rams fortunes. It almost certainly will not. I am wondering if we will witness a senseless tragedy this Sunday. I certainly hope we do not.

Wideouts I am watching

Posted by David Dorey in Fantasy Football (Friday September 26, 2008 at 12:58 am)

Several wideout situations I am trying to buy into but still am leery:

Robert Meachem – He was a sleeper but many teams gave up on him already because he did not even play the first week and hasn’t been a starter until last week when both Marques Colston and David Patten were out. He had one catch for 19 yards but that was a touchdown in week one. Last weekend all he had was two catches but he gained 86 yards. Word was that Meachem did not play week one because he didn’t play special teams. But with injuries the second-year player is getting a look and has a stretch of three home games starting on Sunday. It is such a prolific passing attack that if Meachem can fill even half his potential in this offense he is a great player to hold for a dynasty league and could be very good even just for this year. I think I like him best of the four guys here.

Antonio Bryant – I always figured him for the second coming of David Boston. He’s always getting second chances and is on his fourth team. But all it took was him to replace Joey Galloway against the Buccaneers and turn in ten receptions for 138 to make everyone buy into him again. You hate to miss out on a player stepping up and Griese did just throw for 400 yards so maybe the Bucs won’t be a wasteland for receivers but man – that is just hard to buy. He also reminds me of Michael Westbrook who was another “big talent” guy that really did nothing more than tease except he had one decent year. I am still trying to buy into Griese and the Bucs as a team that can throw but it is all worth following.

Brandon Lloyd – Sort of in the same vein as Bryant, is Lloyd really for real in Chicago or is he really just Brandon Lloyd? And he hasn’t looked good against crappy teams either. He caught five passes for 66 yards in Carolina and then had six catches for 124 yards and one score in Tampa Bay. But Chicago doesn’t like to throw and up until now, Lloyd didn’t seem like he liked to catch. I wouldn’t touch him yet but he is exceeding expectations by a mile.

Chansi Stuckey – Stuckey is still a free agent in almost every league I am in and yet he is the leading scorer (real and fantasy) for the NY Jets. He has caught a touchdown in every game this year and last week had six catches for 42 yards. Laveranues Coles only has one score so far and Cotchery has none. No one wants to believe in Stuckey and yet he has been Favre’s favorite guy near the end zone. If he keeps this up, it will be interesting to see which league is the last to finally have someone say “okay fine, we cannot leave him on the waiver wire any longer”.

Receivers develop during the season and most of that will happen by week six. I’m always on the lookout for changing dynamics and the NFL is delivering the goods again this year.

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