Black Monday. The season is over. It’s time to play the blame game. And the head coaches of the NFL’s lower class are lined up like turkeys at a processing plant.

Crennel, yeah. Marinelli, of course. Mangini…..huh?

I have to tell you I did not see that one coming. I think Mangini was a victim of his own mid-season success, and the victim of the late-season lack of success from the superstar quarterback.

Mangini took a team that most thought would be .500 or slightly better to slightly better at 9-7.

Since when is that a crime?

Since hope raised its ugly head. Since Green Jesus showed up. #4.

Somebody has to be crucified here for gacking the division on your home turf, and it isn’t Green Jesus. “Grab Mangini, I’ll go get the nails.”

I mean, this Mangini guy took on a brand new starting quarterback at the end of the pre-season, had to change the way his gameplan would work with the new quarterback, in effect “dumb down” his offense while the new quarterback learned the system. Overcame all that and led the team to a completely improbable 8-3 start.

And I would at least assume that Mangini was involved in decisions to bring in other players that helped strengthen the Jets roster this season.

Maybe the thought here is, “Hey, if you can’t make it to the playoffs with Brett Favre thrown in your lap at the last second you must be a loser.” “Besides we have ridiculously overpriced seat licenses to move this off-season so we need to eliminate the cause of this team’s melt-down.”

Interceptions:

Favre: 22
Mangini: 0

Can you say, “fall guy?”

The Jets are coming off looking like idiots here. They have thrown their full support behind a quarterback that will soon be a mass mailing target of the AARP. The quarterback they had invested years in was thrown away and came back to kick them in the teeth while leading a previous 1-15 team to the playoffs.

But is it really all that bad? I think this team did as well as could be expected under the circumstances. I think the Jets media, fans, and upper management obviously bought into the hype when the meter hit 8-3. At that point anything less than a Super Bowl was going to be a disappointment, especially after their crushing defeat of the previously undefeated Titans on the road.

Winning that game against the previously undefeated Titans probably cost Mangini his job. Well, that and having the audacity to point out Green Jesus’ mistakes in team film meetings.

He committed the ultimate sin of giving Jets fans false hope. And the lesser sin of hurting Green Jesus’ feelings. “Hey, are you guys done with that cross yet?”

And how about the last franchise that dumped their head coach in favor of keeping a problematic player?

Wade Phillips (aka: Captain of the Titanic) goes merrily along while his owner slaps the press with a rolled up newspaper for even asking.

“Can’t ya’ll understand a statement?” “Our coaching staff is in place.”

Yes Jerry, we do understand that statement. We do understand a BS statement when we hear one. Our coaching staff is in place? Yeah. That wasn’t the question.

I think the more money you have the harder it gets to answer questions. If somebody asks you a question, you simply answer another similar question.

It is the same thing you do with your wife to keep from starting trouble.

Wife: Do these pants make my ass look fat?

You: You look fine honey.
–

Reporter: Will Wade Phillips be fired if the Cowboys don’t make the playoffs?

JJ: Wade Phillips is a fine man.

I’m sure the captain of the Titanic was a fine man too. But he reportedly ignored warning signals as to the impending disaster on his last voyage as well.

It’s too bad Jerry can’t fire himself. Because I think that is the real root of the problem. When the Cowboys traded for Roy Williams at mid-season it became apparent to me just how out of touch Jones is. As if the signings of Terrell Owens and Pacman Jones didn’t already have me leaning that way.

Al Davis East.

Parcells escaped just in time. And yes, let’s talk about Bill Parcells for just a moment shall we? Five downtrodden teams. Five winning records the first season. I think that just about covers it.

Of course, some people think that a wide receiver like Terrell Owens is more important than a franchise builder like Parcells.

Which one of the playoff teams this year got there primarily due to their stud receiver? Which of the playoff teams made it there with a receiver whining about how much they get the ball?

And yet, Jerry has all the money and all the power, and I am stuck here mired in poverty behind a keyboard in my cruddy little office getting my jollies taking potshots at him like a kid with a slingshot.

Life just isn’t fair. Ask Mangini. We have him nailed up on hill number 4 over there.

Misery Index

10) Cowboys: You can go to a racing swap meet and buy all kinds of high performance parts. But if you don’t know how to put it all together when you get home, the guy next door with his 1996 Saturn will still blow your doors off.

9) Jets: Nothing left to do now but sit back and wait for the next bad upper management decision, and the impending Favre retirement hostage situation.

8 ) Buccaneers: For all of Chuckie Gruden’s success, he has only managed to get over on the league one time. And that was when he took over the team that Dungy built, and played in the Superbowl against a team he wrote the play-book for. And now Monte Kiffin is leaving Chuckie all alone with only his quarterback fetish for comfort. Good luck with that Chuck. And by the way. Please, for the love of God, lose the visor already.

7) Patriots: Word is that Brady isn’t progressing very well from his surgery. Yet when I watch that horrible TMZ show with my wife we see film clips of him limping around carting stuff into his girlfriend’s apartment. The Beatles had Yoko. The Patriots have Gisele. The little head just always seems to win doesn’t it?

6) Jaguars: Del Rio has one advantage most failing head coaches don’t have. He works for a team that can’t really afford to fire him. And you thought this economic down-turn was all bad…

5) Broncos: We’re 8-5! We’re three games up with three games left! We’re going to the playoffs!! Wait a minute. Hold your horses….oh crap.

4) Bengals/Browns: The older I get, and the more I watch these two franchises, the more I understand why The Ohio State fans are so devoted. At least they give their fans the illusion that a national championship is possible.

3) Chiefs: Herm, I can’t thank you enough for losing that last game against the Bengals. Very big of you considering you probably won’t be around to reap the rewards of that juicy draft pick next spring. Good luck with your next victim employer.

2) Rams: The Rams biggest accomplishment this season was to give the Falcons a scare in week 17. Had they put forth a similar effort in any of their previous 13 losses they might have been spared the fate of being runner-up in this battle of the blands.

1) Lions: I heard Mike Ditka tell viewers that the Lions were not a worse team than the 1976 Buccaneers, citing the fact that the Bucs went on to lose several games to start the next season as well. Well, that might all be true. But what is also true is that the Buccaneers got the worst expansion deal ever in the NFL. They were forced to start their franchise with everybody elses bottom rung cast-offs. What happened to the 1976 Buccaneers was predictable, and possibly even to be expected.

Yes, it is true. The 2008 Lions would probably smoke the 1976 Buccaneers. But considering the relative resources at their disposal, this team (one of the oldest franchises in the league) and it’s monumental record of failure this year and for years past far exceeds the accomplishment of those bungling Buc’s of 1976.

Ladies and gentlemen, there can be no argument. This franchise is by far the most monumental failure in the history of the league. No contest. No question. No doubt. I present to you the personification of misery, your 2008 Misery Index Champion Lions!!!

Commentary From the Edge is a regular season weekly feature at thehuddle.com

The last week of the NFL regular season and the big week of bowl games is a great time to take a break from betting on football. This is one of the hardest weeks to predict in the whole season. There are way too many variables to think you are going to get an edge for the most part. Well, except Oklahoma’s imminent bowl game melt-down. That is pretty reliable.

But for the most part, this is a great time to keep your powder dry. However, this is a good week to take a look at futures wagers for the Superbowl winner. Here is what I found at my source:

Giants 3/1
Steelers 4/1
Titans 5/1
Panthers 11/2
Colts 17/2
Ravens 15/1
Cowboys 16/1
Falcons 16/1

The rest of the teams are 20/1 or higher.

A simplistic breakdown of these numbers tells us that Las Vegas is pretty certain that the Giants will be there, and it is a bit of a coin flip between the Steelers and the Titans. That sounds about right. Of that top group I would be inclined to play the Titans. I mean, they are getting home field throughout. The Steelers will have to do what they could not do a few weeks ago (beat Tennessee on the road) if they meet in the championship game. I think the Titans are a bit undervalued here, just like they have been all season.

The Titans were a two point underdog at home to the Steelers. We all saw what happened. My question is why are the Titans not 4/1 and the Steelers 5/1? Value.

Of the higher odds teams you have to be at least a little interested in the Colts at 17/2 (That is 8.5/1 for the math challenged) and the Ravens at 15/1.

Truth be told, I can’t sit here with any certainty and tell you what is going to happen. It seems that there are several teams that have a “punchers chance” in this thing. And all of the favorites have shown they can be had.

But when you get right down to it, there are certain kinds of teams that end up in the Superbowl most years. And the numbers reflect that. The Titans, Steelers, Giants, and Panthers. These are the types of teams that win Superbowls. But which one is it going to be? It is hard to point at any of these front-runners and say that they are playing their “best” football right now. The Titans dropped games to the inferior Jets and Texans. The Giants got busted up a couple of times and are still adjusting to life without Plax. The Steelers got throttled by the Titans. And the Panthers couldn’t close out the Giants. Tough crowd but not bullet-proof.

When making futures wagers I am often tempted by potential “hedging” opportunities. But you have to be tuned in to how Vegas sets the numbers to maximize your results. For instance, If I were to make a 3/1 play on the Giants, and they make it to the Superbowl, I would be in a great spot. Because they would probably be favored in the game. Right now the odds on the game are AFC -110 and NFC -120. So that tells us right there, if the Giants make it to the game as Vegas expects, they would be a favorite. I’m thinking this is going to be a fairly low-spread game for a Superbowl. It is hard to imagine much separation developing between now and then.

So let’s say I make that NYG 3/1 play this week. They make it to the big game. They are playing the Titans. It is a 3 point spread. I can either ride it out with my juicy 3/1 play, or I can cover my arse with a play on the underdog with the points. If all goes well, I hit both plays and walk away a genius.

In theory.

I think the odds are not so great for the Giants, but probably the best bet of the NFC teams regardless.

The problem with making futures bets on the higher odds teams (other than the difficulty of figuring out which one of them can actually make it) is that even if they do make it to the Superbowl game, your hedging opportunities will be almost non-existant. Because if a heavy underdog at the outset of the playoffs (i.e. NY Giants last season) they are unlikely to be anything but a heavy underdog in the Superbowl.

So once you make a futures play on one of those higher odds teams there will not likely be an opportunity to hedge in most cases. They are great when they hit, but you hardly ever get a chance to hedge.

The Giants tried to point us all in the right direction last season with that week 17 performance against the Patriots. Not too many of us took it seriously, but there was serious opportunity in futures betting last season. I am trying to figure out which one of those higher odds teams this year is trying to point us in the right direction.

The Colts anybody? Are they not the hottest team going in to the playoffs? Anybody noticing?

The Colts could be a HUGE hedging opportunity this season. At 17/2 it is clear the oddsmakers don’t give them much of a chance of surviving the gauntlet of road games awaiting them in the AFC playoffs. Win three road games and then the Superbowl? Come on. When is the last time that happened?

Oh yeah. Last year.

Let’s keep in mind that the Colts are 6-2 on the road this season.

The beauty part about making a futures bet on the Colts is this. If they could by some miracle survive the road and make it to the big game, it is entirely possible that everybody will have bought in by then, and the Colts could (I say COULD) actually end up a favorite in the Superbowl. In which case you would be holding a nice 17/2 ticket on the Colts and you could hedge your ass off with the NFC team if you were so inclined.

Bottom line though whether you like to hedge or not, you need to pick the team you really think is going to get it. I think there is value in the Titans and Colts, and that is probably how I am going to play it. So what is your play?

This is always a weird time of the year for me and not just because I have to buy my wife gifts for Christmas, Anniversary, Valentine’s Day and her birthday all in about 65 days. After all the work of the summer preparing for summer drafts and then spending the last four months tending to them weekly if not daily, the season is just about over. In a few leagues it already has died and for three leagues and two contests, it will be over this week. One league goes to week 17 so I have (hopefully) two more games there. But the season is about over.

In the few leagues that either crashed and burned a while ago or even just last week, I find myself still submitting lineups for them even though I have no opponent and it doesn’t matter. I just get used to it and by now each team has certain nuances to make it unique. I tend to have a few players on almost all my teams each year because the way drafts work out. This season I had Chris Johnson, Jonathan Stewart, Roddy White and Hines Ward on almost every team. But each team has at least one or two unique “studs” to define them. There is the Addai team that never really took off this year. A couple of Andre Johnson teams. The Moss/Owens team that never met expectations.

But after all the work, it just seems hard to say goodbye. Sure, there are always a team or two that I have no problem letting slip off into obscurity but for the most part you cultivate these rosters, use free agency and make those weekly starting decision. And now…. it is about to be over. It’ll feel like I should be doing something but I cannot figure out what. I may actually go back and look at a few rosters just to see what I did right and what went wrong. In a very small way, they are kind of like a puppy you raised and now they are no longer a part of your home.

I play in one dynasty league that we’ve had about ten years or so. That gives one roster to look at during the off season and since it is a salary cap league, I’ll get to obsess over who to keep and who to release. For at least two more years, it’s my Randy Moss-Andre Johnson-Roddy White-Calvin Johnson team.

But aside from the one, it is about to all be over and it is just weird for me. Maybe I am spending a bit too much time on my fantasy teams but I have to think that other guys are the same way. You stamp the team as yours and ride it for four months. And then it’s over.

…until NEXT YEAR!

Happy Holidays to everyone!

I have chronicled the progress of my WCOFF Super Satellite league in this blog, and I am happy to report to you that the team will be playing for a championship next week.

But it wasn’t easy. As a matter of fact, it was a Monday night thrill ride that tested the limits of my coronary functions.

Yes, I almost managed to shoot myself in the foot. I had two critical roster decisions last week. Chester Taylor or Warrick Dunn. And a choice between Thigpen, Schaub, and Ryan. I was right on Chester Taylor but managed to start the worst of my 3 options at quarterback in Matt Ryan. That nearly cost me a chance for the crown. That was almost a critical mistake.

Coming into Monday night my team was down 12.7 points. I had the Eagles defense as my last hope. The thing that worried me the most is that the WCOFF scoring system is not “defense friendly.” I needed 13 points. I knew going in that the Eagles D/ST would need to score a touchdown to get there. They did. I got 13 points and won the game by 135.4 to 135.1.

Three tenths of a freaking point.

Yes, I was sweating this one out big-time. The Eagles clinching point came with a sack in the Browns last drive of the game. That is all that stood between me and the abyss.

The funny thing about this was that I never needed to be in a position to have to sweat out Monday night. I had planned all week to put in Thigpen rather than Ryan. It was decided. It was never a question. I did not make the lineup move early in the week because my opponent had Thigpen as well as an option and I did not want to cause him to play Thigpen to block.

Then, the forecast. Very windy in Kansas City. Cold front moving through. 30-40 mph winds. Yeah, I talked myself out of starting Thigpen. I felt “safer” with Ryan in the dome, instead of playing a superior match-up in Thigpen.

Over-thinking.

I almost “worried” my way out of a chance at a championship.

But in the end, it was the huge day from Andre Johnson. It was the better than expected day from Chester Taylor. I had a feeling when I drafted Taylor that he would figure in somewhere, and the last two weeks when I finally needed him he has been money. And it was the Eagles defense and Ken Dorsey – bless his heart. The rest of my team had a sub-par day across the board but it was just enough.

The guy I was playing against, like me also made a tactical error starting Toomer over Braylon Edwards. He was in a bad spot to begin with, because Frank Gore would normally have filled that roster spot. Gore’s timely injury was as much to blame for his loss as anything. If Gore had played, I would have probably gone down.

But Edwards would have won him the game had he started him over Toomer. Truth be told. I would have probably made the same move were I in his shoes. And as happy as I was when I watched Ken Dorsey take that final winning sack, I can only imagine the crushing defeat he must have felt at that moment, having watched his benched Edwards uncharacteristically rack up points, and watching the Eagles D get exactly the number I needed for victory. That ending was going to be brutal for one of us. .3 points. I rarely feel bad for vanquished opponents, but having been on the other side of these types of endings before, I can honestly say I feel his pain.

If the roles were reversed I would probably still be curled up in the fetal position, much like I was right before that final sack.

____

Last week in the blog I talked about my “Team Everyone Hates”, and I am happy to also report that team won as well, with Cotchery and Berrian coming out of their coma’s just in time. So I have two championship games next week. Merry Christmas to me. Oddly enough two teams from opposite ends of the spectrum. One that has been crushing the league like a wild beast, and another that has been an unassuming and quiet assassin.

My dynasty team came in with a whimper and went out with a whimper.

But along the way I managed to fill my roster with wide receiver prospects for next year. I traded Housh for Colston. I still have Cotchery. And I am hoping to come up with something from this group:

Domenik Hixon: I have spent plenty of time on Hixon in this blog. Yeah, he had a big drop and a few little ones. He is no Burress. Not yet anyway. I think he will be fine.

Jason Hill: Well, at least Hill has stayed relatively healthy this season. That is step one. Now if he can just get more opportunities maybe he still has a chance to live up to his potential.

Mike Walker: This guy is just a bad luck machine. My interest in Walker is fading, but I still intend to hold him over the off-season and see if anything develops. Does not look good right now though.

Chris Henry: He is only 25 years old. He is talented. He could possibly find himself the starting receiver for the Bengals next season. Assuming he can stay out of the grey-bar hotel for the next 8 months. I grudgingly added Henry to my roster a couple of weeks ago. I know I should. But it just feels dirty.

Miles Austin: Before Roy Williams hit town, I had a serious eye on Austin. Now, he looks to be a longer term project. But with the Owens situation always what it is, I’m willing to use a roster spot for a guy that could end up replacing him once he wears out his welcome.

Mark Bradley: Bradley’s future status with the Chiefs is anything but certain, but he looks to at least be in the mix. Whether or not he will ever stay healthy is still a question. Probably not, but once again a player worthy of holding in the off-season to see what develops.

As those of us whose best-laid draft-day plans have been shattered over the past couple of playoff weekends firmly believe, there’s always next year. And a group of us, brought together by my good friend Rick Perkins over at Fantasy Football Trader, took that belief to the next level last Tuesday, conducting the first of what is sure to be many 2009 mock fantasy drafts.

Though obviously much will change over the next eight months, I found this to be an incredibly useful exercise. Working off the keeper cheat sheet David Dorey and I created the previous week, I found some widely varied opinions on players—and a whole lot that stayed pretty close to form. Best of all, the first eight rounds produced just three names that didn’t crack our first stab at a 2009 cheat sheet; for the record, they are Edgerrin James, Rashard Mendenhall, and Nate Burleson.

What else can be gleaned from this first draft? Here are a few thoughts that will be percolating in my head as the seeds of a 2009 strategy are planted.

• Running backs are deep, maybe more so than any season in recent memory. Clinton Portis, Frank Gore, Chris Johnson, and Steve Slaton were all second-rounders; Thomas Jones and Maurice Jones-Drew lasted into round three. And there are plenty of decent sleepers in the middle rounds as well: Kevin Smith in round five, Darren McFadden in round six, Cadillac Williams and Le’Ron McClain in round seven, and Pierre Thomas and Cedric Benson in round eight, to name a few.

• Round three is shaping up to be the receiver round. Four wideouts—Larry Fitzgerald, Andre Johnson, Randy Moss, and Calvin Johnson—went off the board in round two and eight WRs—Anquan Boldin, Steve Smith, Terrell Owens, Reggie Wayne, Roddy White, Brandon Marshall, Greg Jennings, and Marques Colston—all went in round three. Only two receivers I had in the top tier, Dwayne Bowe and Wes Welker, lasted until round four. And after that things got very interesting, with folks taking all kinds of wild swings at who’ll be the next sleeper wideout.

• There’s no hurry to get a quarterback. Drew Brees was a surprise second overall selection (WCOFF scoring system), and only Tony Romo and Peyton Manning went in the next two rounds. I waited until early in round eight to start hoarding signal callers and landed Philip Rivers at 8-2, Eli Manning at 9-11, and Joe Flacco at 13-11.

• Jason Witten has officially usurped Antonio Gates as the top tight end, going off the board two rounds before any other tight end. Actually, Tony Gonzalez and Kellen Winslow were the next two tight ends off the board towards the end of round six; Gates and Dallas Clark lasted until round seven.

• There’s always one in every crowd: the Giants defense went with the first pick in the ninth round, and it was three rounds before another defense was selected. Kickers were a little more reasonable, with Nick Folk and Mason Crosby going in round 15, four more going in round 16, and the rest in the final 14 picks of the draft.

Based at least a little bit on these results, expect some updates to the keeper cheat sheets later this week.