Last week I made a heartfelt plea to all not to bet against the Cardinals. After a week of careful thought and consideration, and consulting my inner self I can honestly tell you that my opinion has not changed at all.

The Arizona Cardinals are going to win the Super Bowl.

I just wanted to type that one time to see what it felt like. It felt pretty damn weird. But it is what it is. This is the new NFL.

This game is not exactly lighting up the nation. Not a lot of “buzz” about this one. But that doesn’t really matter. The mood of the nation is a bit somber, what with it being the middle of winter in a recession and all. And these two teams aren’t big market teams. Hell, the Cardinals barely had a fan base in Arizona before they made this run, I guess it is too much to expect this battered nation to climb aboard this underdog train. I think a lot of people still aren’t believing what they are seeing here, either that or they have had their heads too buried in the help wanted ads to notice.

But what of the hardcore football fans? The guys that frequent the Huddle message boards? What do they think?

In a poll conducted on the Huddle Forum, the Cardinals are the favored team in this game by a vote of 54-42.

In a later poll I asked the collective braintrust which conference was the best right now and the NFC edged the AFC 22-20.

It seems among some of the most knowledgable fans, the Cardinals play in the better conference and will prevail in this game.

But the odds on a Cardinals win are 2/1, and they are a 7 point underdog.

The over/under is 47 and the sentiment seems to be on the under. I don’t see that being a good play at all. Definitely feeling over on this game, but not strong enough to play it. I think people betting the Steelers are more inclined to play the under, and Cardinals backers are playing the over.

I feel like the winner of this game will need to put up 27 points. And the loser won’t be far behind. Tough call on that over/under. Vegas might have nailed that one.

There are a few prop bets that I wanted to talk about as well. One of the worst prop bets on the board is for Kurt Warner to win the MVP. The line I saw for this was 2.5/1. That is a horrible bet. First of all, the Cardinals have to win the game for that to happen. And you can get 2/1 for a straight up Cardinals win. Why in the world would you play the Warner prop bet instead of the Cardinals at 2/1? Yeah, there is a great chance Warner would be the MVP if the Cardinals win, but not great enough to make that kind of a bet. That is what they call a “sucker bet.”

Roethlisberger is a 2/1 favorite to win the MVP. That might seem like an attractive play if you want to bet the Steelers straight up on the moneyline. The Steelers straight up win regardless of points will cost you $250 to win $100. People that want to bet on Pittsburgh this way might be advised to take Big Ben prop instead, where you would only need wager $50 to win that same $100. Not exactly a great play either way in my opinion. Rothlisberger despite being a Super Bowl winner was not stellar (or even acceptable) in that win.

However, if you think like I do that the Steelers will have a hard time shutting down the Cards offense, it certainly is within the realm of possibility that Rothlisberger is forced into a position of having to rack up the passing yards. The Cardinals offense has been amazing against the run during the playoffs, and the Steelers could be forced into an aerial battle which could necessitate a big passing day from Rothlisberger. But the Steelers have to win. A better play than the Warner one and a decent hedge with certain other plays, but as a stand alone play this one doesn’t seem too great either.

There will be lots of people touting the prop bet on the Cardinals receiving the opening kickoff. The thought is that the Steelers might defer even if they win the coin toss. You have to pay a huge premium to take the Cards for that play (-175), and I don’t think it is worth the extreme juice. I am not at all convinced the Steelers will defer in this particular game. As a matter of fact, I really just doubt they would. At regular juice this would be a fine play, but don’t pay that ridiculous premium for the privilege. I think I might have to throw down on the Steelers for that kind of plus money.

If you think like I do that the Cardinals are about to shock the world, you might consider taking the Cardinals -3.5 at +330. I could see them winning by 4 and covering that. Not a great bet, but if you are confident in a Cards victory something to consider. A similar play might be to take the Cards to win by a margin of 1-6 which pays 7/2. Beyond that there are nice payouts for Cards victory by 7 or more that are interesting plays as well.

The oddsmakers are cheating the betting public on the moneyline bets for this game. The Cards at -7 and only +200 on the ML is a big squeeze. Cards should be around +250 so the value has been sucked out of that play. One of those “Cardinals blowout” plays, though less likely certainly would reward those with stones enough to bet on it.

The history of the Super Bowl suggests that you need to be on the right team to plump up your roll. The point spread rarely saves those who pick the losing team. One of these teams could very well inflict its will on the other and give us yet another Super Bowl blowout. I don’t think that is going to happen here, but all of us need to realize it is definitely a possibility.

Whatever you decide to do, I wish you the best of luck. Enjoy the game and your family and friends. I think we are going to get an unexpected surprise in the form of a great Super Bowl game. In the end, it really doesn’t matter who is in the game. The game is the thing. Enjoy the game!

With quite possibly the country’s biggest single-day sporting event a mere 15 days away, you should probably have already answered your friend’s Evite, sent out your own, or picked out the sports bar where you’re going to park yourself for a good 6 hours. If you haven’t, it’s never too late to start planning.

As a football fan, this is obviously an exciting time. The playoffs have been crazy, and the Super Bowl should be extremely entertaining. But as a fantasy football owner (and heck, as a writer of the same), it’s on the bittersweet side. No more setting lineups, no more scouring the waiver wire for sleepers, no more Sundays in front of the TV. At least for another 8 months or so.

So, like the true fantasy football junkie that I am, I have to find a way to discuss the Super Bowl with fantasy ties. So, without further ado, my Super Bowl Sleepers (food and drink edition).

Appetizers

* Mozzarella Sticks: What’s not to like about mozzarella sticks? They include three of my favorite “food groups”: cheese, bread and tomato sauce. What once was only available in sports bars and other greasy spoons, you can now find in the frozen section of your favorite grocery store.

* Pretzels: They’re supposedly the lowest-calorie and lowest-in-fat “munchie” food. And hey, they still satisfy that urge for salt. And what’s not to like about the shape choices; you got your standard pretzel, of course, but there’s something to be said about the ease of eating a pretzel stick. Plus, if your host has provided some delicious queso or some other kind of dip, the pretzel stick provides you with a capable tasting vehicle.

* Carrot Sticks: Continuing with the stick theme here, we finish this section with everyone’s favorite veggie. Carrots are one of the sweeter vegetables, and you should know that their vitamins and minerals assist in protecting your good vision. Helpful if you’re late to the party and have to watch the game from way in the back.

Drinks

* 7-up / Sprite: I’m more of a Sprite guy these days, after 7-up’s “re-tooling”. I find lemon-lime sodas to be the most refreshing. Cola doesn’t refresh, in my opinion. Plus, with Sprite and the like, you can add it to cheap swill beer for a tasty treat.

* Leinenkugel’s Sunset Wheat Beer: Speaking of beer (you won’t want to put Sprite in it, though), this is one of my favorites. Especially good if you’re in a locale – like here in Austin, TX – that is already experiencing springtime weather. Give it a whirl.

Main Dishes

* Hot Dogs: I don’t know about you, but while I am a fan of brats and other types of “specialty sausages”, there’s just something to be said about a good, old-fashioned hot dog. Dress it up how you like, but this cat likes his dog with just a little bit of ketchup. Maybe some shredded cheddar cheese. If you wanna get real fancy, try Hebrew National’s products. They’re 100% all-beef (Kosher) and to me, are probably the best tasting dogs out there. Honorable mention goes out to Nathan’s Hot Dogs.

* Jambalaya: Shout out to my wife, who hails from The Jambalaya Capital of the World. We have thrown a few “Super Bowl / Mardi Gras” parties (and why not, Mardi Gras is sometimes right around Super Bowl) and she’s always made a big pot of jambalaya. While it’s probably sacrilegious in some circles, you can buy pre-packaged jambalaya mixes and it’ll taste just fine. Make sure you have a good Andouille sausage and poach the chicken until it’s falling apart.

* Grilled Cheese Sandwiches: Having people over that are bringing their kids? Hot dogs and hamburgers can get messy with the little ones. Why not grill up something easy that kids of all ages love? If you want to get fancy, throw some ham or turkey in there before throwing it on your well-buttered pan.

Desserts

* Pretzel Kisses: Let’s just get this one out of the way so we can get the jokes out there. I learned of this “recipe” while attending my first ever “Couple’s Baby Shower” last weekend. But hey, there was a keg, we played Rock Band and I learned of this delicious delight. You take your standard pretzel, and put a Hershey’s kiss on top of it. Get your oven heated up to a mere 200 degrees, and pop the preztel/kiss combos in for 5 or so minutes, just so the chocolate starts to melt down a bit. Pull them out and let them cool. Trust me, there’s nothing like the symphony of chocolate and salt.

* And finally….. Skittles: Everyone loves Skittles.

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Hopefully these “sleepers” will give you the edge at your Super Bowl party. Here’s to looking forward to the 2009 NFL season, where more than half the NFL teams will be rolling out new defensive co-ordinators. I don’t have a crystal ball, but I’d bet a dozen donuts that we will see some big offensive explosions come next season. Enjoy the off-season.

When the Championship games were finished on Sunday and I got my first look at the Vegas line for the Super Bowl, I was a little surprised to say the least. After watching the two games I had just watched, I sure didn’t see 7 points difference between the Cardinals and Steelers.

Maybe I am missing something here.

The Cardinals just finished a 3 game sweep through the playoffs as an underdog in each game. Their last game was against the Eagles, (who from a statistical standpoint are fairly close to the Steelers on the season, and a team that beat the Steelers handily I might add) and the Cardinals had little trouble putting on the same offensive show they had put on the previous two playoff games.

In my mind this game should have been a 3-4 point spread. But my mind doesn’t think like Vegas does.

Vegas is happy to put out this ridiculous touchdown line. Vegas figures that if they artificially inflate this line from the get-go, people will just follow along in their thinking that the Steelers are going to crush the Cards. This line has nothing to do with the X’s and O’s. Like always, the spreads are really just attempts to manipulate. The Steelers are the most heavily wagered on team in the league. Vegas knows that. They could have made the spread 10 points and Steelers honks would still be onboard.

As it is Steeler fans figure this line is a gift from God. Only 7 points? Against this wannabe 6 seed? Are you kidding me? Where do I sign up?

In the hours and days after the Super Bowl teams were determined, two distinct camps are squaring off. There seems to be the Steeler-Lovers or Underdog Haters that give the Cardinals absolutely no chance in this game. The Cardinals, despite being arguably clearly the best team in the playoffs up to this point are still not getting any respect from this bunch.

I fall in the other camp. I think the Steelers will be damn lucky to win this game and getting the Cardinals plus 7 points is like falling in a hole filled with money. Just grab some and climb out. The Cardinals are riding the wave of disrespect, and being a 7 point underdog against a team whose defensive prowess was defined through encounters with the offensive power-house that is the AFC North (Cincinnati, Cleveland, Baltimore) will only incite them further.

The Steelers had a great year defensive statistic-wise. But if you take a closer look, they faced only two teams with offenses even in the same ballpark as the Cardinals this season, and that was the Colts and the Chargers twice. The Colts beat the Steelers 24-20. The Steelers barely survived the Chargers at home in the regular season 11-10, and 35-24 in the playoffs. And they allowed the Eagles to have their way with them as mentioned earlier.

And with all due respect to the Colts and the Chargers, neither of those teams have anything as lethal as Warner to Fitzgerald is right now.

To me, the problem for the Steelers is this. They need their defense to win this game for them. They are ill-equipped to win an offensive slug-fest against this bunch. The Eagles have already proven that blitzing the hell out of Warner only plays into the Cardinals gameplan. Warner burned those blitzes more often than not, whether he ended up on the ground or not. It is hard for me to envision that the Steelers would do any better job getting to Warner than the Eagles did.

The Steelers other option is to use the blitz sparingly, and try to shut down the Cardinals in coverage. Once again, this is problematic. First of all, Fitzgerald can’t be covered with one body or two. And despite the Steelers lofty status in the defensive stats, they just don’t have a shut-down corner. And assuming that Boldin is healthy by game-time, the Steelers actually need two of those.

Steelers backers will (and already have) argued that the Cardinals have not faced a defense like the Steelers this season. Maybe not, but the Eagles defense was playing as well as anybody during the playoffs and the Cardinals hung 35 on them.

A more pertinent point in my opinion is the fact that the Steelers have not faced an OFFENSE like this all season.

Strength vs. strength. What is the tipping point?

The Arizona Cardinals coaching staff has intimate knowledge of the Steelers tendencies, strengths and weaknesses. That is the huge wild-card in this whole thing. I don’t want to draw comparisons to the Buccaneers/Raiders Super Bowl where Gruden cruised to victory coaching against his old players, (then was never heard from again) but I’m afraid it is an unavoidable truth. With two weeks to prepare and inside knowledge of the opponent, this to me is the coup de gras. Pardon my french.

If you read my blogs, I consider you a friend. I am always honest with my friends, even if sometimes I have to tell them something that is painful to hear. I think Kurt Warner will be hoisting another Lombardi in Tampa. My advice to Pittsburgh fans is please don’t bet on this game. You are far too close to the situation to see it clearly.

Yes, I am an underdog honk. Yes, I am hanging onto Fitzgerald’s jockstrap since he guided my fantasy team to a championship. Yes, I am a huge fan of Kurt Warner even though he is under the delusion that God gives a rats ass about the outcome of a football game. Yes, I have been wrong before, like in 2005 when I ignored the tsunami that was the similarly 6 seeded Pittsburgh Steelers.

You do remember that don’t you Steelers backers?

But I won’t make that mistake this year. I cannot ignore big Mo. I refused to accept and believe what was happening last January when the Giants surprised everybody. I refused to accept and believe that the lowly 6 seed Steelers could take down the Seahawks in 2005. In 2009 I am a little older, and a little wiser. I cannot ignore what is happening here. You only piss on an electric fence once. Or twice in my case. I’ve had enough thank you.

The Cardinals have shown us who they are. And they are not who we thought they were. This team has evolved into a killing machine right before our eyes. You can pretend you don’t see it if you want, but please don’t pull out your money and try to whiz on the Cardinals fence. It could be a shock you won’t soon forget.

The Cardinals are hosting the NFC Championship game. Let’s allow that to sink in. The Cardinals who have not won a championship game since 1947 are now hosting the NFC Championship. If there was anything that we have learned over the last two weeks it is that not only can any team make the playoffs and win, but that maybe we do not even need the regular season. I mean keep it and all since it is the basis for fantasy football. But it doesn’t seem to have a very big bearing on who will advance in the playoffs.

They will be facing the Eagles who were not even sure that they were going to the playoffs until the Buccaneers were nice enough to lose to the visiting Raiders (yes, Raiders on the road) and allow the Eagles to sneak into the playoffs. And the Eagles look formidable after dismantling both the Vikings and the Giants. The NFC will have either the #4 or #6 seed advancing to the Super Bowl. If that has happened before, it has been a very long time ago.

The AFC had the Ravens beating the Titans who lost Chris Johnson to a high ankle sprain in the second quarter. That allowed the Ravens to get the upper hand and be yet another road team that advanced. The Steelers were the only favored team that won this week and the only team that was expected to be a part of the respective division championships.

Is such transition from expectations good for the NFL or bad? Certainly fans of the Eagles, Ravens and Cardinals have zero problem with their teams showing up. But powerhouse teams of the regular season like the Titans, Colts, Giants and Panthers have to be bitter about how their team failed to deliver after a season that created high expectations.

In the end I think it has to be considered good even though getting a bye week has seemed more like a kiss of death than a benefit. Football is all about one game, winner takes all. No playoff series, no losing three games and then still winning the title. One and done. And in the NFL playoffs this year – that’s all about who is the best for that one day.

The NFL continues to defy prediction. On Sunday, two teams that were both pronounced dead late in the regular season will meet for the right to go to the Super Bowl.

The day the Eagles died November 16: Eagles play the Bengals to a 13-13 tie. Not only one of the worst games in the history of the sport, McNabb didn’t even realize it was over when the clock hit zero on the overtime. Most fans that know anything about the NFL at all know that rule, so McNabb got absolutely roasted for his ignorance.

Eagles fans were throwing in the towel after that performance. McNabb and Andy Reid had lynch-mobs seeking to run both out of town. At 5-5-1 the Eagles were in last place in the division and a longshot to make the playoffs at all.

The day the Cardinals died December 21: The Cardinals had clinched the weak NFC West crown and were faced with a road game at New England in a snowstorm. The outcome was predictable with a Patriots victory, but the absolute domination of the Patriots over a team that seemed disinterested in playing the game was a signal to most that the Arizona Cardinals were pretenders. Everybody, and I mean EVERYBODY buried the Cards after that self assigned bye-week.

Fast forward to now and these teams find themselves at the brink of a Super Bowl berth. One of them will go. We did it again.

We did the same thing we did with the Giants last season. We buried them too soon.

It seems to matter little what happed before the playoffs started. Parity has leveled the field now to the point that the hot team at the end rather than the best team all year wins it all.

And isn’t that the way it is supposed to be? Doesn’t the NFL have it right, where the BCS has it so wrong? We are deciding the championship on the field here, and a lot of things we all presumed before the playoffs started are crumbled up papers in the wastebasket of our minds.

The Cardinals and Eagles for the NFC Championship, which is rich with story-lines would have never been possible in the BCS system. We don’t necessarily see the teams that are playing at their absolute highest level in the BCS Championship game. We do in the NFL.

And you can’t argue with what these two teams have done. Though some argued that the Cardinals didn’t even deserve to be in the playoffs, let alone with a home opener, few people thought the Cardinals had a chance of surviving the Falcons. And only those who have seen Delhomme and coach Fox at their worst could have imagined the carnage that the Cardinals inflicted in Carolina.

The Cards defense which had been left for dead, has resurrected and forced 9 turnovers in two playoff games. If there is a better formula for success for winning playoff games than that I’d sure like to know about it.

While the Cardinals will need to continue to rely on their defense, the offensive line has also been dominant. That will no doubt be seriously tested against the blitz happy Eagles defense. The Eagles D has got them to this point, and they are likely to need it to survive the Arizona air show.

I can’t get past a few thoughts about this game. First of all, we have two veteran quarterbacks. Warner: 2 Super Bowls one win. McNabb: One Super Bowl one loss. And 4 NFC Championship losses during his tenure. Eagles fans are well proud of that record of 5 NFC Championship games in the last 8 years, but at this point McNabb and Reid are both in positions where anything but a Super Bowl victory will bring the Eagles fans wrath crashing around them yet again.

In either case, the NFC will send a good QB storyline to the big game. Warner with the chance for a second ring after being thrown on the league scrap heap, and possibly cement his Hall of Fame inclusion. Or McNabb with yet another chance to get over the hump and quiet his critics once and for all by winning the big one.

This one game is huge in terms of the legacy of both Warner and McNabb.

So who is going to win? Tough call. As much as I think the Eagles experience in these types of situations is a huge plus, I just have to believe what my eyes have been seeing over the last few weeks. I have seen a Cardinals offense that has adjusted it’s play-calling with great success, and I have seen an offensive and defensive line that have controlled the game. The Cardinals defense was ranked in the bottom half of the league over the course of the season, but when it has really counted over the last few weeks, they have been dominant.

There will be a lot of people discounting the Cardinals against the playoff tested Eagles, but I certainly won’t be among them. This Cardinals team reminds me of that Colts team that won a championship a few years ago. That was also a high powered offensive team whose defense played lights out during the playoffs.

To me it comes down to this. If the Cardinals offensive line can keep Warner alive, the Cardinals win this game. If the Eagles spend the day in Warner’s face, the Cards will be lucky to survive.

I grew up a Cardinals fan as a child. I had no idea football could actually be enjoyable until the Cardinals left town and I found myself free to root for teams that didn’t suck. It seems like this could just be a fairy-tale, that will come crashing down come Sunday afternoon. Certainly nobody would blame the Cardinals if the Eagles took them down. The Cardinals are playing with house money. They were a 40-1 shot to win the Super Bowl coming into the playoffs. They are a 3 1/2 point underdog at home this Sunday. They are right where they want to be.

I wrote in the blog before the playoffs started about the Superbowls futures odds. At that time I was trying to pluck “this year’s Giants.” Well, I missed the mark. It sure looks to me like the Cards are this year’s Giants, only better. And I expect them to be the last corpse standing on this Day of the Dead.