NFL training camps are just around the corner. Like clockwork, reports about Player A being in “the best shape of his career” and Player B “looking faster and stronger than ever,” have begun to pepper the Internet.

I always shudder when I read player evaluations like these. On one hand, I appreciate the insight. On the other hand, these types of glowing reports have burned me in the past. Out of curiosity, I ran a quick Google search on players who received similar praise last year. Here are some of interesting (and revealing) quotes I pulled from those search engine results:

 “Despite having been injury-prone in recent years, Rudi Johnson came to Bengals camp in probably the best shape of his life.”

- ESPN.com’s John Clayton, August 2008

Reality check: Johnson was cut at the end of training camp, later signed with Detroit, and was by all measures a fantasy bust.

 “We hear [Arizona] starting RB Edgerrin James couldn’t have looked in better shape for what figures to be another 20- to 25-carries-per-game workload this coming season.”

-Pro Football Weekly, July 2008

Reality check: James lost his starting job and only scored three rushing touchdowns in 2008.

“[Fred] Taylor is one of the few backs who has actually gotten better with age. He is in the best shape of his career.”

- SportingNews.com, July 2008

Reality check: Taylor delivered just 556 yards rushing—his worst production in years.

 “Ricky Williams is in top shape and looked every bit the best player on the field. He ran with authority, he showed quickness, and he never let himself shift out of top gear.”

- Miami Herald, July 2008

Reality check: One of the more over-hyped players entering the 2008 season, Williams saw his fantasy stock skyrocket but only amassed 659 rushing yards.

Hindsight may be 20/20, but there’s still a lesson to be learned. And it’s don’t be so quick to drink the Kool-Aid.

Giving too much credence to secondhand accounts of how a player looks when they report to camp, how much faster they seem to be, how well they’re moving the pile, or even how much weight they’ve gained or lost is probably a mistake. Think twice before immediately giving players a huge boost in your rankings based on this type of information. Instead, treat these reports as just one piece of the puzzle–and not a corner piece.

In typical Internet fashion, the news is coming even earlier this year. Several players are already being showered with praise:

“This year I feel a whole lot better than I did at this time last year. I feel stronger and a little faster and I just feel in better shape.”

-Ronnie Brown, CBSSports.com, June 2009

 “[At minicamp], LenDale White looked much more tone and in shape than in previous years.”

-Nashville City Paper, May 2009

 “People in the organization who have been around since Braylon Edwards was drafted with the third-overall pick of the 2005 draft say he’s in the best shape physically and, perhaps most importantly, mentally he’s been in the last four years.”

- Orange and Brown Report (OBR.com), June 2009

What’s your take? How much stock do you put into accounts of players reporting to camp in “the best shape of their life”?

Three years ago I took over a team in an existing dynasty league.  Being an arrogant bastard such as I am, I figured it would take no time at all before I turned this down and out team into a league powerhouse and start piling up trophies.  Not so much.

One playoff appearance buffered by two next to last place overall finishes have humbled the arrogant bastard.

Dynasty leagues are not forgiving.   Critical mistakes that would fade into the sunset once your re-draft league ends with its annual championship, linger and prey upon your mind forever in a dynasty league.

So here I sit with the 2nd overall rookie draft pick.  And a team that really needs the help.  Here is my roster as it stands today.

QB:  Warner, Schaub, Hasselebeck

RB: Grant, L.Washington, Norwood, B. Jackson

WR: Colston, Cotchery, Chambers, M.Austin, M.Bradley, D.Hixon, Devery Henderson, Jason Hill, Chris Henry, M.Walker 

TE: Gates, Scheffler

What is wrong with this picture?  First of all there are no players on this roster that will be taken in the first round this year in re-drafts.

That is a pretty good way to assess your dynasty team.  If you have 5-6 guys that will be taken in the first two rounds of re-draft leagues, you are looking good.  If you have none, you have work to do.  This team needs some work, and this is a good time to figure out how it is going to get better. 

I do have that 2nd overall pick.  I have Wells and Moreno lined up in my sights and will be happy to have either land on my roster.   But as nice as it will be to have a fresh young stud running back at my disposal, are either of these guys going to help lead me to the promised land THIS season?  Doubtful.

Ryan Grant then would need to be that “stud” running back to carry the load for my team.  I worked a beautiful trade to snag him last off-season (R.Johnson, Watson, Burleson) and then he held out, got injured and turned in a disappointing season to say the least.   Will Grant bounce back and be the beast I thought he was going to be?  I’m not so sure.  The Packers seemed to like to get Brandon Jackson in on a lot of passing downs and he did pretty well in that role.  Grant may have lost his opportunity to be a true “feature back.”

And of course I have decent bench RBs with Leon Washington and Jerious Norwood.  But neither of those guys look to be in a position to be big fantasy factors this season.  I had high hopes for both, but neither has panned out as I expected.

I am pretty content with Warner, Schaub and Hasselbeck at QB, though with that “injury waiting to happen” trio I could find myself searching the waiver wire for a desperation QB start somewhere during the season if the football Gods frown upon me.

My tight end position will be fine as long as Gates holds up.  Scheffler watched his chance at being a “big timer” go bye bye to Chicago during the off-season so my love affair with Scheff has gone chilly.

My wide receivers though are my biggest concern.  I find this most troubling, because I have been right on the beam over the last several years advocating the “stud WR theory” yet I have assembled a team with only one. 

After Colston, my wide receiving corps is chippy at best.  Cotchery seems to be regressing rather than progressing.   Chambers is done.   And the rest of these guys are waiver projects from last season.  I am optimistic about Miles Austin in Dallas, but not convinced any of those other guys are going to be meaningful contributors.  I was pretty hot on Hixon last year, but he did not do much when given the opportunity, and the Giants keep drafting more WRs so apparently they weren’t all that impressed either.     

Bottom line, I have a team loaded with “sleepers” and I am going to need to catch lightning in a bottle to make a playoff run with this team as it stands. 

There.  That is what I call an objective assessment.  That was the easy part.  The hard part?  Fixing it. 

I better get to work.

I was recently booted from a track & field message board. I know what you are thinking:

1. Why did you even join a track & field message board to begin with?

I ran the 100m and threw the shot put  in high school and up until last year I coached track & field on the middle and high school levels as well.

2. So what got you booted?

Believe or not I was asked to leave for discussing the one thing at the very center of the sport – performance enhancing drugs (or PEDs as they are called on the forum).  According to the forum rules members are not allowed to post “objectional” materal including “accusations/suggestions that athletes are involved in illegal drugs.” So members are basically told that they cannot discuss PEDs or other drugs for that matter. And sure enough after browsing through 5 pages of topics and their posts I realized that PEDs were not discussed. How could this be? A sport seemingly dominated by athletes on illegal drugs and the topic was no where to be found. Denial is not just a river in Africa…..

So of course I decided to test the water. I offered as a response to a question that the only way an athlete found to be taking PEDs while at the top of their sport can return to the top is if they resume taking PEDs. Members immediately told me to edit my post because I had broken forum rules and discussed performance enhancers. Since this is America and all, I mentioned that free speech (and common sense) should be allowed and as such my post would remain the same. But within minutes the forum moderator warned me to refrain from talking about drugs; and when I refused I was asked to leave.

I guess some track & field fans feel that the drug problem that plagues the sport might go away if it isn’t discussed. I’m glad we don’t have this problem in the NFL……..

One of my favorite quotes—at least, among the ones not uttered by Irwin M. Fletcher—is “He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lampposts: for support rather than illumination.” Near as I can tell, the quote comes from Scottish poet Andrew Lang, though according to the Internet it has also been attributed to Winston Churchill, Mark Twain, A.E. Housman, and Vin Scully.

At this juncture the source isn’t as important as the sentiment, which I use to help bring perspective to interesting stats my research may unearth.

Take, for example, this nugget: last year the Detroit Lions’ quarterback position (an ugly combination of Jon Kitna, Dan Orlovsky, and Daunte Culpepper, with a dash of Drew Stanton and Drew Henson tossed in for good measure) outproduced the Atlanta Falcons’ quarterback position (Rookie of the Year Matt Ryan).

Actually, “outproduced” is a tad aggressive as the margin was six-tenths of a point for the season. Still, that KitOrlCulStanSon equaled Ryan was a bit surprising. It’s also worth noting that the 15.8 points per game produced by Lion QBs (using a standard performance scoring system of 4 points per TD pass, 6 per run/reception, 1 per 20 yards passing, and 1 per 10 rushing/receiving) was within less than one point per game of Eli Manning and the Giants’ QB production.

Then the question becomes, what do we do with this information? And that’s where the differeing interpretations come in.

As I see it, that Giants’ QBs were the 19^th-most productive last year and gutted their receiving corps doesn’t bode well for Eli; his ranking on the Huddle cheat sheets—six to eight spots lower than the three magazines I could reach from my computer—certainly supports that belief.

But that’s the easy one. The Lions have a new system, and Matt Ryan has a new Hall of Fame tight end; how much do those factors offset what we saw last year? One man’s early opinion: Matthew Stafford will be a fantasy helper sooner rather than later, while Ryan will be overvalued (I’ve seen him as high as eighth) to the point where it’s unlikely he’ll wind up on any of my clubs.

Maybe I’ve seen the light. Or maybe I’ve just wobbled over to a lamppost after an evening of tossing back Leinenkugels. And if that’s the case, at least there’s a couple months to sober up.