Wow, what an amazing summer it has been.   As usual, the biggest NFL stories involved players that will likely be inconsequential in the upcoming season.  The Favre soap opera was a nauseating media circle jerk with no happy ending.  I think I have a whole new empathy for the Packers organization.  I feel their pain. 

Oh sure, Favre said it’s over.  But it’s never really over for Favre.  He will return.  But for now, at last maybe the national media can join the rest of us in reveling in the relevant. 

Oops.  Not so fast.  Now we are on the Mike Vick media ride again.

And the Michael Vick saga is even less relevent than the Favre saga.  Because let’s face it.  Nobody was champing at the bit to have Mike Vick on their team when he left the league in disgrace.  He is not, was not, will never be a starting caliber NFL quarterback.   Even when some poor desperate team decides to bring Vick in to run some gadget plays, he is never going to be a player of major consequence in the NFL.  Vick’s moment has passed.  He blew it.  Can we move on.

I can barely measure my level of apathy concerning Mike Vick. 

I am a lot more interested in Matt Stafford and Mark Sanchez.  These guys could be the next big thing. 

I am a lot more interested in Tarvaris Jackson and Sage Rosenfels.   Will Rosenfels have to promise Chilly that he won’t do any cartwheels before he lets him hit the field?  Has Tarvaris Jackson been sticking pins in little “Chilly” dolls?  Does he use a Major Dad doll because it is the closest he can find?

Hell, I’m more interested in Shaun Hill and Alex Smith.  At least there is a remote chance that one of those guys could throw a touchdown pass in an NFL game this year.

Maybe the media can squeeze in a few of these stories over the next few weeks.

Dreamers just keep on dreaming…

I think there are a lot of lessons you can learn in life if you remain open to it. And to me, fantasy football is like a microcosm of real life. Oh sure, there are plenty of parallels to the business world where you have to manage your resources, determine what is optimal and who does what. But fantasy football goes into so much more… like buying a car.

My son has turned 16 for about six months and we resisted buying him a car if only because he is an only child and just once I wanted him to know the feeling of “wanting but not having”. Long story short, certain conditions are now as required and my wife and I have been looking to get him his first car. We landed on a particular make and model we felt was perfect for his and our needs. And since he doesn’t rank a spot in the garage, it has to park outside in the Texas sun where a white car has distinct advantages.

We found a dealership that had that car according to their own website and when we got there – it was gone. I had sent them an email asking for a quote but they had not responded and I figured that was because it was gone. After going to a few other dealerships, we returned home and I told my wife it was like a fantasy draft. Sure you see what you want and it may seem closer to being yours, but until he is on your roster you have to take a very detached approach. Of course I tend to draw parallels to fantasy football with most things we do but such is my life.

When I returned home and checked my computer, I had a message from a salesman saying the car was there and to come down and see it. I quickly called him and he said it “was on the side of the building” and that I could come down and see it because the computer clearly showed no deal for the vehicle. In the world of used cars, until the check is written everything is for sale including people and moral stances.

After I accused him of baiting me down there to look at other cars, he swore it was there and that he was looking at it. As we hastily sped down there, I told my wife “we’re still in the draft and it isn’t our turn yet” and not to get too excited.

But it was there.

And the guy was holding the key so no one else could get into the car.

And he went and drove it up to the front for us to see it with my wife inside the car since she was down there looking at it while I got him.

And he dashed inside to get the gas key because it was almost on “E”.

And when he returned, he was walking slowly. Apparently someone else had been there all day, deciding between two cars and had wrote THE check about 60 seconds prior for the one we wanted.

sigh… maybe we should just go to an auction….

While my expertise lies in the NFL Draft (www.draftheadquarters.com), I am as much a fantasy owner as those that subscribe to this site. This year I have an interesting situation that I thought I would bring to the blog.

I am currently in a keeper league with ten teams, and we keep four players. (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 DEF). My three players that I am for sure keeping from last season are Chris Johnson, Steve Slaton, and Andre Johnson. The rest of my team is Jay Cutler, Brandon Marshall, and Tony Gonzalez. Between Cutler landing with a poor offense and the amount of good quarterbacks that are expected to be available for me to pick (Donovan McNabb), I’ve decided to choose from Broncos wide receiver Brandon Marshall and Falcons tight end Tony Gonzalez.

When you look at the names themselves, this choice may seem to be easier than it actually is. However, each player has things that you like and don’t like.

Marshall enters this season without his elite quarterback, coming off of an injury that forced offseason surgery, and has also been in trouble with the law and could very easily be suspended. Brandon caught 104 passes for 1,265 yards and six touchdowns. However, with Kyle Orton now at the helm, you’d have to think that he’ll be lucky to crack 1,000 yards. That also doesn’t include the risk that he could be injured again and/or get suspended.

Now, with Tony Gonzalez, I would assure myself of landing one of the top tight ends, he would be consistent and reliable, and I would know exactly what I’m getting. Last season with Kansas City, Gonzalez caught 96 passes for 1,058 yards and 10 touchdowns. With his move to Atlanta, some think that his numbers could take a dip while others think that he could flourish.

At Boston College, quarterback Matt Ryan relied on his tight end more than one would think. His tight end Ryan Purvis caught 54 passes for 553 yards and four touchdowns in 2007 when Ryan was a senior. However, when Ryan left and Purvis caught passes from Chris Crane, Purvis only hauled in 24 receptions for 176 yards and did not record a touchdown pass. Purvis was thought of as an average tight end who had good, but not great hands. Now, imagine bringing in one of the top tight ends in NFL history for Ryan to work with. While the Falcons do have Roddy White on the outside, you have to think that Gonzalez is going to draw plenty of targets as the safety net for the second-year quarterback.

One other note, it’s easier to find receivers than it is tight ends. I can very easily fill my No. 2 and No. 3 receiver roles, whereas the tight ends may be harder to find.

Now my question is this. Who would you keep? Would you roll the dice and take Marshall, or would you go the easier route and keep Gonzalez?

A few weeks ago I updated the status of my long- suffering dynasty team, commenting at the time that I had work to do. Well, after much negotiation with no results I finally found a trading partner. Here is the trade I made:

I got: Wes Welker, Lendale White, RD. 1 pick 6 rookie draft
He got: Cotchery, Chris Chambers, Rd 1 pick 2 rookie draft

Yeah, I traded away my juicy #2 overall draft pick. I will not be getting Moreno or Wells. But I really don’t care. Chances are Moreno was going first and I would have been presented with the opportunity to draft Beanie. For some reason that just didn’t give me the warm fuzzies. I decided that there are a couple of rookies I like almost as much as Wells, and I will take my chances that I can still grab one of them at #6. Worst case scenario – I end up taking a shot in the dark with Harvin or Maclin. I could live with that.

The good news is that I have Wes Welker in my clutches. You know how much I love consistent players in my lineup, and they don’t come any more consistent than Welker with the Patriots. Welker is a top 10 WR in PPR leagues and his presence in my lineup makes me a contender this season. 

Lendale White is obviously not a great player in PPR format, but he is a guy you can stick in the lineup on any week and he will probably get you a score. Not great. But fairly consistent. And he is only 24 years old. And he is in a contract year. There are still some possibilities that Lendale White will surprise all of us.

The bottom line for me was, I’m not sure that Beanie Wells will be the monster that some think he will become. And if so, it seems unlikely it would happen this season. Tough call, but I took the money (Welker) and ran. Did I screw up? Only time will tell.

If you haven’t read about the Curse of 370, you’ll surely come across it in the coming weeks as fantasy experts debate about the draft position of Michael Turner. According to the Curse of 370, when running backs are overworked to the extent of carrying the ball 370 or more times in one season, they will experience a marked drop in production the following year. Indeed, RBs who fit this category have historically seen about a 35% drop in rushing yards the following season:

Jamal Anderson
410 carries in 1998 . . . blew out knee in 1999

Terrell Davis
392 carries in 1998 . . . blew out knee in 1999

Eddie George
403 carries in 2000 . . . yardage and yards per carry plummeted in 2001

Edgerrin James
387 carries in 2000 . . . blew out knee in 2001

Larry Johnson
416 carries in 2006 . . . broke foot in 2007

Doesn’t look too promising for Michael Turner, who carried the rock 376 times in 2008, does it?

It’s true that the bell would seem to be tolling for the Falcons stud RB. But let’s examine the cases of George, Anderson, Davis, James and Johnson more closely, shall we? Prior to their respective declines, all five of the aforementioned not only had been worn down by 370+ carries, they had also been worn down by a tremendous workload in the seasons prior:

Anderson – 600 touches in 1996-1997

Davis – 792 touches in 1996-1997

George – 752 touches in 1998-1999

James – 431 touches in 1999

Johnson – 487 touches in 2004-2005

Turner on the other hand had just 71 carries in 2007 and 80 carries in 2006 while backing up LaDainian Tomlinson. Oh, and speaking of Tomlinson, LT had 372 carries in 2002 and followed it up with the season in which he delivered the most all-purpose yardage of his career (2,370 yards).

The bottom line is fears about Turner’s workload are overblown. He’s young. He’s still fresh. And he plays on a team with an offense that’s clearly on the rise. Fantasy owners should have no reservations about hitching their wagons to this classic workhorse RB in 2009.

Turner is that rare player who is not only consistent (produces every game) he’s also explosive (delivers games with 2+ touchdowns and/or 200 yards). In that regard, he may even be a better pick than Adrian Peterson, who’s proven very capable of disappearing during games over his first two seasons.

What do you think? Do you fear the Curse of 370 or will Turner escape it?