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5 tips to get your 0-3 team to the playoffs

Posted by Paul Sandy in Fantasy Football (Tuesday September 29, 2009 at 10:28 am)

1. Switch to Win-Now Mode
If your club is 0-3, it’s time to switch to win-now mode. Under the most optimistic of scenarios, you’ll need to get your team to a .500 record to earn a wild card. In most leagues, that means going 7-3 for the rest of the season. The only game that matters is Week 4. Forget all the talk about strength of schedule for the rest of the season, who has easy matchups in the playoffs, and whether a player is injury-prone. You need laser-beam focus on Week 4. If that means trading Kurt Warner (bye this week) for Jay Cutler (Detroit this week) and a prospect, so be it.

2. Trade Away Your Depth
Whereas your goal at the start of the season was to build the best roster, your goal now needs to be to field the absolute best starting lineup. Depth is no longer a luxury you can afford. Identify your team’s deepest position and use it as leverage to build the ultimate starting lineup. For example, if your backfield has DeAngelo Williams, Marion Barber, Willis McGahee and Darren Sproles, consider packaging two of these RBs (Williams and Sproles, perhaps) for an elite-level WR like Larry Fitzgerald or Randy Moss. What you lose in depth, you’ll gain in frontline power. You’ll put yourself at risk for injury, but that’s a risk you’re going to have to be willing to take.

3. Go on a Youth Movement
After you’ve unloaded your depth of established players, fill out your roster with promising young backups. Guys like James Davis have little value now but they could see their value skyrocket later on. Every year backups step in for veterans who have gotten injured or worn down and emerge as legit fantasy starters. If it happens with one of your guys, you’ll have another bargaining chip in your pocket you can parlay into an even better starting lineup.

4. Mind the Byes
With less depth, you’ll inevitably run into challenges with bad matchups and bye weeks. It’s critical to think ahead. For example let’s assume your top RB has a bye in Week 7; you need start planning for it in Week 5. Think about making a trade or picking up a player off the wire who has a good matchup. You know Tampa has a poor run defense. New England plays Tampa in Week 7. Grab Fred Taylor (or even Kevin Faulk) off the wire for a one-week plug and play.

5. Take Chances
You’re 0-3. You’re already the butt of all the jokes on your league’s message board. What do you have to lose? Last year when Willie Parker and Rashard Mendenhall went down with an injury, Mewelde Moore was the top waiver wire pickup in almost every fantasy league. I was fortunate enough to grab him but my team was 4-0 at that point. A 1-3 team in my league was desperate for RB help—and in win-now mode. The team offered me Devin Hester, who was coming off two straight games with a touchdown, for Moore. It was a risky move for the 1-3 team, trading a hot player for a RB who would likely only get two or three starts. I pounced. It worked out for that owner (and not so well for me). Moore carried the team to two straight victories and back into playoff contention.

What I’m Looking For

Posted by Darin Tietgen in Fantasy Football, General, IDP, NFL Football, Offensive Lines (Saturday September 26, 2009 at 6:55 pm)

We’ll take a break from The Huddle 180 and do a quick look ahead to tomorrow’s games.  Here’s a few random things I’m looking for in each game:

GB @ STL

If Ryan Grant is going to get back to almost-stud status, this should be the game for him.  We’re also waiting for Aaron Rodgers to “break out” this season, but it’ll likely be Grant that has the potential to dominate in this one.

KCC @ PHI

I’d like to talk about Donovan McNabb, Brian Westbrook or maybe even Dwayne Bowe, but I just can’t ignore Michael Vick’s return to the NFL field.  He’ll have to shake off a ton of rust, but this one should be over early and Vick may be given the shot at some carries and tosses.

ATL @ NEP

I’m calling the upset here; Welker is still gimpy and is a GTS.  His replacement, Julian Edelman, is also listed as questionable.  Tom Brady really missed his security blanket last week and will be missing it even more this week.  The Falcons will pressure Brady and their offense is good enough to pick apart the rather average, Mayo-less Patriot defense.

CLE @ BAL

I’m looking at this matchup to see if Joe Flacco can actually produce as a fantasy QB week to week.  He’s been turned loose, and should throw for at least 2 scores against a real bad Brown D.   If he reverts to the rookie Flacco (which isn’t horrible, just not a fantasy QB), and only goes for 180-200 yards and one score, I would be nervous to start him weekly.

WAS @ DET

Upset #2 here.  I don’t get why the Redskins are getting nearly a TD on the road.  Yes, I realize the Lions are horrible and won 0 games last season, but that was last season and they had a 50% turn-over on their roster entering this season.  Not the same team.  Sorry Skin fans, your team is not very good.  The Lions will feed Kevin Smith the ball and will win by a field goal.  So, what am I looking for here?  A Lion victory.

JAC @ HOU

I’m waiting for Steve Slaton to shake the fumblitis bug.  If he can’t, he’ll drop down to a #2 fantasy RB.  Of course, if I were not an owner, I’d be knocking on the Slaton owner’s door to look for a trade.  Slaton tore up the Jag D last season, and should do the same here this time around.

SFO @ MIN

Really, I’m just looking to see how many yards Adrian Peterson has and how many times Patrick Willis can chase Peterson down for tackles.

PIT @ CIN

I’m looking for Willie Parker to shake his “I can’t play on the road” thing and have at least 80 yards and a score against the Bengal defense.  Also looking to see if Bengal DE Antwan Odom can chase down Big Ben for another sack.

NYG @ TBB

I’m pretty sure the Giants will extend their dominance on the road against a real average Buc squad.  Brandon Jacobs should have a field day and will likely give way to Ahmad Bradshaw, who could come up with 50-60 yards of his own.

CHI @ SEA

As a Bear homer, I’m obviously hoping for a win, but I’m actually really interested to see what WR(s) Jay Cutler decides to lock on to against the Seahawk secondary.  Johnny Knox has kinda come out of nowhere to be the go-to guy, but we know Devin Hester has plenty of skills and Earl Bennett and Cutler have a long-standing relationship.

NO @ BUF

Very interested to see how many WRs, TEs and random RBs Drew Brees can pass to on Sunday.  With both Mike Bell and Pierre Thomas with injury issues, Brees may pass the ball 50 times.

TEN @ NYJ

It’s gonna be interesting to see what Mark Sanchez does against a real defense.  Yeah, the Titan D isn’t the same without Albert Haynesworth, but they’re still far better than the Texans or Patriots on the defensive side of the football.  The rookie will come back down to Earth this week and will look like a rookie.

DEN @ OAK

There could be double-digit turnovers in this game.  What was once a pair of proud franchises and a shoo-in for a wild west shootout now looks like a laugher.  The Broncos are 2-0 but really aren’t that good.  The Raiders look good in spells (especially in their opener) and could easily control this game.

MIA @ SDC

It’ll be strange to see no sign of #21 for the Chargers.  Can Darren Sproles carry the load?  I think the Bolts will give the Dolphins a heavy dose of Antonio Gates.  Can the Fins shake off a disappointing Week 2 loss?

IND @ ARI

Honestly, I’m just looking to see how many points can be scored in this game, most of which will likely be through the air.  2 or 3 passing TDs per team?  No problem.  The Colts pass D is currently tops in the NFL, but honestly, look who they’ve faced to start the season.

CAR @ DAL

So Jerrah Jone’s megalopolis is open for business and the hype has settled a little.  Time to break it in a little more with a big win against a real struggling Panther squad.   Maybe it’s wishful thinking, but I could see DeAngelo Williams with over 100 rushing yards and close to 50 receiving yards in this one.  And of course, the real burning question is:  will the Cowboys ever force a turnover?

Bounce Back Running Backs

Posted by David Dorey in Fantasy Football (Thursday September 24, 2009 at 3:21 pm)

After two weeks, some of those highly drafted running backs have failed to meet expectations but not to worry – help is on the way.

Steve Slaton (HOU) – The surprising answer to the Texans backfield woes last season was this top ten back but so far he’s only gained 51 yards on 26 carries for an anemic 2.0 yard rushing average. Slaton added 60 yards on six receptions to salvage minimal fantasy but overall – major disappointment so far. And that will be changing starting this week. Figure that Slaton has already played against the #1 (TEN) and #3 (NYJ) against running backs and now faces the Jaguars and Raiders for a much improved situation.

Matt Forte (CHI) – The hot rookie wonder of 2008 has certainly laid an egg in the first two weeks with a total of 84 yards on 38 carries for a paltry 2.2 yard rushing average. The leader among all NFL running backs last year with 63 receptions currently only has two receptions and both came last Sunday. But better times are sure to start now since his first two games went against the Packers and Steelers – both among the very best rushing defenses. The next two?The Seahawks and Lions who currently rank as two of the worst. Good things are coming very soon.

Brian Westbrook / LeSean Jackson(PHI) – Unfortunately the ankle sprain of Brian Westbrook makes this less clear but the Eagles opened in a romp over the Panthers that had the defense dominate that matchup. In the second game, the Saints came to town and did the dominating which again left the rushing game taking a back seat. This week welcomes the Chiefs with the 30th best defense against running backs and after the week four bye are tilts against the Buccaneers and then in Oakland. The next three games will be prime territory for posting running back fantasy points.

No position is as sensitive to the schedule as the running backs are so it pays to keep up to date on the ever-changing Strength of Schedule. Keep an eye on what’s coming down the road for your players and you can stay ahead of the changing needs for your team.

A Cruel Fantasy Week Past and a Look Ahead

Posted by Kevin Ratterree in Fantasy Football (Tuesday September 22, 2009 at 4:33 pm)

These are trying times in my fantasy football world. After going 4-2 the first week, I reversed it with a 2-4 this week. All my teams that lost week one won, and those that lost week one lost. So right now I am sitting here with a six team pile of mediocrity, and Anthony Gonzalez clogging up a roster spot in 3 of my leagues.  Things could be better.  But I am encouraged by a few things.  Taking stock of my teams, here are some players I have thoughts on, followed by my level of confidence going forward for each player

Matt Forte:  I drafted Forte on two teams.  So far that has been a monumental bust.  But, then the Bears have played a couple of pretty good teams to start the season, so I am just going to close my eyes, wipe the slate, and imagine that Forte’s season starts in week 3.  If it doesn’t, I have probably made a couple of nice entry fee donations to those respective leagues.  My plan B’s are sketchy at best.  Level of confidence: 70%

Philip Rivers and Ben Roethlisberger:  My quarterback choices couldn’t look much better than they do right now.  Both of these guys teams have struggled to run the ball as I expected they might, and the burdon of the offense has been put squarely on the shoulders of these QB’s.  You can’t see it right now, but I am attempting to pat myself on the back.  Level of confidence: 90%

Lendale White:  I only have White in one redraft league and my dynasty league.  I have to tell you that I am not happy at all with this development.  White has been invisible with Chris Johnson consuming huge chunks of yards.  I was pretty confident that White would be a touchdown machine this season at the least, but it is looking like he will be the type of guy that will have a couple of 2-3 TD games when circumstances warrant, but many weeks of pain sprinkled in.  Maybe these first two games are just an abberation, but my level of confidence in White will have me scrounging for other alternatives this week.  After two weeks, I have to get off the bus.  Level of confidence 50%

Tashard Choice:  A possible replacement for White is Tashard Choice.  Assuming Barber is missing some time with the quad injury, I would be thrilled to plug Choice into my starting lineup.  I drafted Choice in a couple of leagues in the later rounds, and have Felix Jones on one of those rosters as well.  A vulture move that looks like it might give me a  few weeks of breathing room while the Titans decide for sure if they want to let Lendale keep gathering dust.  One note, I am of the opinion that Choice would assume Barber’s role in the offense while Jones essentially keeps his, maybe with more carries added in.  In any case, I would have no problem starting either in Barber’s absence.   Level of confidence: 75%

Pierre Thomas:  What a wild ride it has been with Thomas.  I drafted him in an early (too early) draft along with Knowshon Moreno.  And paid quite handsomely for the combo with 3rd and 4th round picks.  The rest of the story is that both were injured before the season ever started, and I was left with Julius Jones as an anchor the first two weeks.  Since that time we have seen the coming of Mike Bell and Buckhalter and Moreno and Thomas seemed to plummet from the fantasy universe.  But as happens so often, now the upstart Bell has somehow managed to imitate Pierre Thomas’ injury, and now finds himself on the outs for awhile.  Meanwhile Moreno is being worked in with Denver.  So while these guys looked like a morbid combo just a couple of weeks ago, I actually feel pretty good about them going forward assuming their injury issues are settled.  Thomas obviously could lose carries to Bell, but it seems the Saints are going to produce plenty of fantasy points to go around.  Level of confidence: 70% 

Nate Burleson:  Yeah, I felt like a genius about Burleson, right up until the time I saw Hasselbeck crumpled on the ground writhing in pain.  Hasselbeck, as good as he is needs some serious self preservation training.  He was begging to get busted up, and he finally did.  Love the courage.  Hate the results.  Mixed stories on what is going on with Hass, but if he isn’t in there, obviously my sleeper of the year Burleson will end up being very average.  Level of confidence:  65%

Domenik Hixon:  Pull the plug time here.  I already ditched him in my dynasty league last week for Johnny Knox, and in re-draft leagues he is just waiting his turn to get released.  Manningham has won the battle, and Nicks will likely win the war, and Hixon looks like he’s going to be forever a number 4.  I was wrong.  Move on.  Level of confidence 0%

Mark Bradley:  I think this is the week I cut all ties with this guy as well.  If I have to guess between Bradley and Bobby Wade every week, as the Chiefs trudge through their winless schedule, that is a pretty damn depressing way to go though the fantasy season.  I’ll trade Bradley for Wade for bench strength though, only because Wade hasn’t been there long enough to make the coach hate his guts yet.   Hopefully I won’t end up with either one, as the stress of praying the Chiefs get close enough to the end zone every week so Bowe has a chance to get some points will be about all I can take.  Level of confidence 10%

Top 5 Players to Watch on Sunday

Posted by David Dorey in Fantasy Football (Friday September 18, 2009 at 2:26 am)

Week one had some interesting stats, but was it a trend or just one game?

1. Mark Sanchez (Jets) – He didn’t act like a rookie when he passed for 272 yards and a score in Houston. At home against the Patriots will be a better test and hopefully a shootout. Sanchez isn’t buying the notion that the Jets have mediocre receivers.

2. Julius Jones (Seahawks) – He burned the Rams for 136 yards and a score but a lot of runners will probably do that. This week in San Francisco is a bigger challenge where he only rushed for nine yards on six carries last season. Consider this a bellwether game for Jones.

3. Joe Flacco (Ravens) – The Ravens threw a shocking 43 passes against the Chiefs and Flacco ended up with 307 yards and three scores. Air Baltimore? This week in San Diego will be proof if the offense is willing to showcase Flacco’s passing skills.

4. Darren McFadden (Raiders) – He gained 76 yards on 18 carries in San Diego and looked very sharp at times. Playing in Kansas City this week should be produce eye-popping stats after the Ravens rolled up 198 yards against them last week. McFadden gets 100 rushing yards here or he’s a disappointment.

5. Kevin Smith (Lions) – While he wasn’t very effective as a runner in New Orleans last Sunday, Smith turned in seven receptions for 52 yards. Back at home against the Vikings this week, he should find the rushing a bit easier but if he is the lead receiver again – make the trade for him in leagues that award reception points. He could be the 2009 version of Matt Forte.

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