Once bye weeks start, every league has at least a couple teams scrambling to cover players who will be out. While most rosters have multiple running backs, quarterbacks and wide receivers, many times they carry only one defense, tight end or kicker. The smaller the roster, the more likely extra defenses or kickers are a luxury you cannot afford.

You have to go grab someone new who may only be used for one week before being tossed back on the pile of free agents. The problem is that you are not going to find great options on the waiver wire. They are not currently on teams for a reason. So what is the best way to comb through the flotsam and jetsam of your league for a one week replacement?

Play the odds.

1. 35% More Tight End Touchdowns Occur at Home – So far this year, of the 53 touchdowns scored by tight ends, 32 (65%) came at home and 21 (35%) were on the road. Last season it was 61 road scores versus 84 home touchdowns. The number actually goes higher when you leave the list of studs that score everywhere and refer to the available players on your waiver wire. If you are in a points-per-reception league, there are at least 10% more receptions playing at home and even higher for the group you are undoubtedly eyeing for a one week play. Most teams use tight ends for more blocking on the road is the prevailing reason. Grab a replacement tight end that will be playing at home.

2. Winning Kickers are worth 33% more points – When a team wins the game, their placekicker will average 9.6 points while the losing kicker will average 6.5 points per game. This bumps up slightly more with winning kickers who are playing on the road who had the highest average – 9.8 points per game. And the worst kickers were those on the road in a losing effort since they only averaged 6.4 points per game. Looking for a kicker? Grab one that you feel strongly will win the game and especially if the kicker plays on the road. Holds true every year.

3. A Defense That Wins is Worth Twice as much a Losing Defense – There is statistically almost zero difference between what a defense does at home and away. Consider this season through four weeks for sacks (133 home versus 135 away), turnovers (99 home versus 101 away) and overall standard fantasy points (429 home versus 395 away). But for the defense on the winning team, the differences are pronounced. Suddenly it’s 135 to 65 turnovers in favor of the winners.

While home teams had 135 sacks against 133 for road defenses, winning defenses recorded 161 sacks against the 107 by the losing teams. Winning teams scored 19 touchdowns via defense and special teams compared to only seven by losing clubs. Put it all together and in standard fantasy points (sacks + 2 point turnovers + 6 point touchdowns) so far there’s been 545 fantasy points generated by winning defenses but only 279 by the losing teams. Almost exactly twice as many.

When you are searching for a one week replacement for your starters who are on bye, consider the above. Those average tight ends left on your waiver wire are much more likely to have a good game at home than on the road. When you are looking for a kicker, just take one that you feel the most strongly that his team will win the game. No need to over think it – just get a winning kicker.

Lastly, defenses score fantasy points based on the talent of their players and strength of their scheme, not matchup and not where it is played. That means a decent replacement is going to be hard to find now so lower your expectations a bit and find a defense from a game they will win.

And don’t forget – the waiver wire is not just to replace your bye week players. Churn that roster weekly with a constant eye for improvement and you’ll glide through the bye weeks without a bump.