Once Fred Taylor was let go by the Jaguars this past offseason many fantasy owners, namely Maurice Jones-Drew owners in keeper and dynasty leagues, thought that Jones-Drew would step in and shoulder the Jaguars’ rushing load.  Many (including myself) questioned if Jones-Drew could actually shoulder the load and continue to be as effective a runner, since it was something he had never done before.  Prior to this season the most that Jones-Drew had carried the ball at either UCLA or with the Jaguars was 197 times (2008).  Another key point, at least for me, was that Jones-Drew saw his YPC (yard/carry) decline each year since he entered the NFL.  My biggest fear was that with a large increase in carries, Jones-Drew would wear down and not be as effective a runner.  Well, it’s 12 games into the 2009 season and we now know a few things.

1.  Jones-Drew is shouldering the load, having carried the ball 233 times thru 12 games.

2.  Career highs have already been set in carries (233) & rushing yards (1077).  He has also tied his career high in rushing touchdowns (13).

3.  Jones-Drew is on pace for 311 carries, 1436 rushing yards & 17 rushing touchdowns.

Those are the things that we know, but what about the wearing down part?  How could I possibly think that a player who is on pace for numbers like that is wearing down.  Well let’s take a look at some numbers.

In his first 7 games Jones-Drew averaged 5.52 YPC (116 carries for 640 yards) & 1.4 touchdowns/game.  In his last 5 games Jones-Drew has averaged just 3.74 YPC (117 carries for 437 yards) & .6 touchdowns/game.  That is a whopping 32% decrease in YPC and rushing yards with his rushing touchdowns down 57%.  Week’s 12 & 13 also mark the first time this season that Jones-Drew has gone consecutive weeks without scoring a touchdown.  To put the touchdown statistics into a bit more perspective, prior to week 9 Jones-Drew scored one touchdown every 11.6 carries.  From week 9 thru week 13 he is only scoring a touchdown every 39 carries.

Since statistics don’t always tell the entire story I decided to dig a bit deeper so I contacted NFL reporter Michael C. Wright, who covers the Jaguars for the Florida Times-Union.  My question was straight and to the point, “MJD wearing down?” and I included some of the above statistics.  Wright’s response, “Funny you should say that.  I just mentioned that to a colleague who was asking about the team in an email.  I tend to think so.”

With the Jaguars right in the thick of the playoff race it surely looks like they are going to ride Jones-Drew hard in an effort to secure a wild card birth.  For the Jaguars’—and Jones-Drew’s fantasy owners—sake, let’s hope that Jones-Drew finds his second wind and doesn’t continue to wear down.

Follow me on twitter @IDPSteve and you can also follow Michael C. Wright on twitter @jagsreporter