Not only are running backs the most predictable and heaviest relied on player for an offense, their role comes into sharper focus later in the year when weather and wind force teams to run more. By now we think we know who the bad and good running backs are but the schedule has a huge impact on their production.

There are always a few guys who open their season facing an easier slate of defenses only to see far tougher challenges for the final two months of the years. These are the guys whose expectations need to be lowered and selling high in a trade is always a good idea.

There are also a few running backs that start their season going against a rough stretch of defenses only to see their schedule get significantly lighter starting in November. These players should outperform their season to date numbers and become much more attractive in a trade. These are the guys you need to know.

The biggest schedule swings for running backs:

Cleveland Browns – The season started with a brutal stretch of road games in Denver, Baltimore and Pittsburgh and also hosted the Vikings, Bengals and Packers – all top defenses against running backs. The only game where they did not face a top defense was in Buffalo when Jamal Lewis rushed for 117 yards. Their remaining schedule still has home stands against the Steelers and Ravens but they also play against the Bears, Lion, Chargers, Chiefs and Raiders. The Browns don’t have the talent for a big bang to end the year but the fantasy stats will be improved for the running backs.

Cincinnati Bengals – Cedric Benson has already seen a spike upwards in his production this year and better games should be yet to play. Consider that Benson started out playing the Broncos, Packers, Steelers and Ravens and yet he’s been one of the most productive runners this season. And after facing the Ravens and Steelers again in weeks nine and ten, his schedule turns delightful with games against the Raiders, Browns, Lions Chargers and Chiefs. As long as his heavy workload doesn’t tire him out later in the year, Benson could be ending with even bigger stats.

Tennessee Titans – Chris Johnson has been inconsistent at best and LenDale White has disappeared against a schedule that opened by facing the defenses of the Steelers, Jets, Colts, Jaguars and Patriots. The only time they did not face a great rushing defense was against the visiting Texans when Johnson gamed 197 rushing yards, 87 receiving yards and scored three times. There are still a few tough weeks left – Jaguars, Cardinals Colts and Dolphins but games against the 49ers, Bills, Texans, Rams and Chargers will make the second half of the year much better than the first.

Jacksonville Jaguars – Maurice Jones-Drew has certainly played mostly well so far and he’s done that despite facing defenses of the Colts, Cardinals, Seahawks and Titans. After facing the Titans again on Sunday, Jones-Drew should see an uptick in stats that could be considerable as he runs against the Chiefs, Bills, 49ers and Texans over the next six weeks. Fantasy playoff weeks go against the Dolphins, Colts and Patriots that will be no fun but Jones-Drew will make some noise before those weeks.

Arizona Cardinals – Tim Hightower and Chris Wells have not exactly been top runners and the offensive scheme will ensure that neither will ever be a 320+ carry player but they can score the short touchdowns as Hightower did last year. And the lower results of this season are related to an opening stretch that proved more challenging than was expected with games against the 49ers, Jaguars, Seahawks and Giants. The remaining schedule takes a big slant upwards though with match-ups against the Panthers, Bears, Rams, Lions and Rams. Wells started to get a bigger share of the workload last week though Hightower remains the named starter. Wells might be a nice calculated risk since he could progress into a bigger role and by the fantasy playoffs weeks wind up against the Lions and Rams.

The schedule has a big impact on your running backs but for a few teams there are two distinctly different parts to the season. Now is the time to acquire those players with the rising value and if you already own them – enjoy the ride.

I got a chuckle when I read that Cowboys COO Stephen Jones said he’d “be surprised” if there are any more deals in mid-season after inking DeMarcus Ware to an extension.   The statement may have been in reference to Miles Austin, who is on a one year tender.

“Some of the biggest mistakes that are ever made are when you pay a guy off of one year,” said Jones.

True.  And some of the biggest mistakes are when you pay a guy based off of one ininspiring career.  Like say, Roy E. Williams. 

Oh what a spot the Cowboys are in now.  On the hook to Williams while the big fish might be getting away.

And that is what I’d like to talk about a bit.  No, not blowing millions on average talent, but  Miles Austin’s dynasty prospects.  Because let’s face it, if he comes anywhere close to what he has done over the last two games, he is going to get a big bag of cash. But will Jerry Jones be the one to stomach writing that check?  When he could have got him so much cheaper the year before? 

I’m not too worried about all of that just yet, but it is something to factor in to his value going forward.  The unknown.  I mean, we have see with Steve Smith (formerly known as  ”the good” Steve Smith) the tragedy that happens to stats when your QB is a stiff.  Which reminds me, I wonder if T.O. has a picture of Romo under his pillow that he can cry on every night.  “…sniff…that used to be my quarterback..sniff”  

That being said, I’m sold on Austin. (that’s for the 2-3 of you that haven’t heard that yet)  The guy has been targeted 22 times over his last two games.  If he can stay on the field I think he will be gold.

Another guy I was banking on was Johnny Knox, who I managed to acquire in most of my leagues as a free agent.  But it seems to me that the Bears are making a real effort to make Hester the lead receiver, so Knox will probably have to do more with less going forward.  Just like the weather, I am cooling on his prospects to make a serious impact on a regular basis this season.  I did trade him in my dynasty league for Tashard Choice last week, somehow sensing I suppose that I was about to lose Leon Washington for the season.

Tashard Choice is a guy that I wanted to own in dynasty.  I have seen what I need to see.  I’m not sure how he is going to gain the proper opportunity to fulfill his potential, but I am sold on the player, if not the situation.  I am much more interested in the Dallas passing game in the immediate future.   And that is because the team is more interested in the passing game.  They could run all over about any team in the league, but they continue to be obsessed with letting Romo rip it. 

Choice seemed to be the forgotten man if last week was any indication, so I have no immediate hopes for anything big, but with Barber still dinged, and Jones so breakable, we could see Choice shoulder the load at some point in the future both this season and beyond.  I think he is the most complete back they have, and the only one that can stay healthy.  Logic tells me that at some point the lions share of the carries will be his.  When that may be is anybody’s guess.   But my gut feeling is that is where we are headed.    

 To me, he is absolutely the safest long-term investment of the Dallas trio.  Unfortunately, unless injury does it for us, we will have a hard time figuring out this mess in the Dallas back-field for this season.  They have all but abandoned the run anyway so the production just isn’t there.   And that is why I am so pumped about Miles Austin.  He gives them exactly what they want.  Hopefully he will give the 3 fantasy teams I own him in exactly what they need. 

Then next summer Mr. Jones can drive his Brinks truck to Austin, and pay for what Miles needs.

And they all lived happily ever after.

On the heels of yet another vastly successful Five Crazy Things blog entry (they’re called CRAZY things for a reason, folks), here are five more crazy things that actually happened… and a note on if it’s a fluke or potential trend.

1. Ryan Grant appears to be a very capable fantasy RB. This one sure could be a fluke. He averaged 5.5 ypc against a Brown defense which ranks second-to-last in the league. He’ll face a tough Viking front seven this week, and still has Baltimore and Pittsburgh on the schedule too. There’s a good share of cupcakes left, but don’t hesitate to bench the guy against the tougher Ds.

2. Alex Smith is BACK, here to stay, and will be a viable fantasy QB moving forward. As much as I’d like to say this was just a fluke, I’m not so sure. The guy has been a complete disappointment in his first few seasons, but honestly, who has he had to throw to? He’s got an ultra-talented TE (who could be on the verge of a big breakout himself), an ultra-talented rookie WR (ditto) and a couple of other nice cogs (the pass-catching RB Frank Gore, WRs Josh Morgan and Ike Bruce). Smith faces the stout IND pass D this week, but then the schedule softens considerably, with games against TEN, ARI, SEA, DET and STL.

3. Dallas could keep winning games… as long as Tony Romo and Miles Austin continue this symbiotic relationship. Not so sure on this one. They were coming off a bye week, at home, and the Falcons’ D could be a tad over-rated. Let’s see if America’s Team can keep it up against a pretty weak Seattle squad, cuz Weeks 9 and 10 will be big tests in Philly and at Lambeau.

4. Beanie Wells, the new starting RB for the Cards? Probably a fluke or wishful thinking. He still is a liability in pass coverage and you know, the Cards kinda like to pass a bit. Still, he’ll have some value, especially if the Cards go up on their opponent and they want to control the ball with the run. Feel free to give him a run this week against Carolina’s #26-ranked rush D.

5. Devin Hester’s 100+ yard receiving games could continue. Definitely not a fluke. He had one game at 90 yards and another of 83. One more catch in each of those and he’d be over 100. CLE, ARI and SFO on the docket in the next 3 weeks. There’s gotta be a 100+ yarder mixed in there somewhere.

After a week off, let’s take a look at five things that buck trends or are just a little bit out there. Or maybe not too out there.

1. Steve Breaston will lead the Cardinals in receiving this week. Anquan is nursing a sore ankle, and Larry Fitzgerald has only had one 100-yard game this season. Breaston had 6 receptions for 86 yards against the Giants in their last meeting. Wouldn’t be a shock to see him right around the 90-100 yard mark with a score this week.

2. Eagle QBs will account for at least 3 TDs against the Washington Redskins on MNF. Donovan McNabb will throw for at least one, and Mike Vick might get his first Wildcat score. The Redskins are real, real bad, in case you haven’t noticed.

3. Oakland wins its second in a row. Look, the Jets were a nice story to start the season, but Mark Sanchez is looking like a rookie, and he’ll have fits getting his WRs the ball against a very under-rated Raider secondary. And the Raiders are athletic enough up front to cause some havoc in the trenches.

4. Matt Schaub leads all QBs in fantasy scoring this week. The Niner secondary has a few injury concerns and even if they were all healthy, the Texans have the horses to put up big time numbers.

5. Joseph Addai, Donald Brown, Reggie Wayne, Pierre Garcon, Austin Collie and Dallas Clark all gain at least 50 yards. Is it really that crazy to think this? No Will Witherspoon for the Rams anymore. Some guy named Craig Dahl starting at safety. It’s gonna be like shooting fish (or in this case, Rams) in a barrel for Peyton Manning, and then the RBs will mop up.

Let’s be realistic here – about half of all teams have a losing season and by week seven there are more than a few fantasy teams looking at sitting out the league championship already. The good news – there is still time to save your season but you’ll need some luck (which has not been with you so far) and a few different players than whatever you have been using.

Below are five suggestions of players to acquire via a trade who should have good games over the next three weeks and yet are not so expensive that you have no chance to acquire them. You’ll need to use your own wisdom as to whom you can part with from your team but it is week seven and if you are 3-4 or worse, you have to try something different.

Donald Driver (GB) – The old man from the Packers has been rejuvenated this year and he’ll cost you more than any recent year. But he has scored twice this year and been around 95 yards or better in three of the last four games. This week he faces the weak Browns in Cleveland and in week nine he goes to Tampa Bay where everyone has a huge game. Even Week eight against the visiting Vikings should be a decent showing.

Devin Hester (CHI) – His team mate Johnny Knox is also interesting but Hester is the more sure thing on this Bears team that not only needs to pass each week, it can pass with big results thanks to Jay Cutler. Hester is always the primary wideout in challenging matchups and with games in Cincinnati and then hosting the Browns and Cardinals should roll up nice fantasy points when you need them most – now.

Austin Collie (IND) – Obviously Reggie Wayne would be optimal but might also cost your entire roster to obtain. But Collie has been on fire in the last two weeks with a total of 14 catches for 162 yards and three scores and more importantly those came against weaker secondaries of the Seahawks and Titans. The Colts schedule remains a cakewalk for the next three weeks with matchups against in St. Louis and then hosting the 49ers and Texans.

Joseph Addai (IND) – For the same reason that Collie looks advantageous for the next three games, Addai should have some nice fantasy points as well. He remains the primary back over Donald Brown and Addai acts as a receiver as well with 17 catches for 103 yards over just the last two games. He won’t trade for much since most believe Donald Brown will eventually take a greater share but for the next three games, the outlook for Addai is very bright.

LaDainian Tomlinson (SD) – As amazing as this may seem, Tomlinson has suffered tremendously in perception with an injury-marred season that has only seen him play two healthy games – once in Pittsburgh where all running backs go to die and last Monday against the Broncos defense when he still had 100 total yards. But Tomlinson catches a break with his schedule now playing in Kansas City and then at home against the Raiders. Week nine in New York against the Giants won’t be much fun but if he performs well enough for two weeks you could trade him back out.

If you are standing at 3-4 or worse in your league, you should not give up but instead need to shrink your season down to the next few games. You have to win now or later do not matter at all. Take a look at your roster and make some moves that shore up your next few games even if it comes at the expense of the stars you wanted for the entire season. Your season is down to the next two or three games.