By this time, I have been in around ten drafts or auctions and I have a feel for not only what players are worth, but how they have moved in the course of the summer. Particularly now that we have seen a few preseason games and can apparently extrapolate how beating a third-string defender translates into a huge regular season against the first team defenses.

I’ll be honest with you. It sucks to see most of these players getting hyped and shooting up in draft/auction value. It sucks because many of them are the guys that back in June I could grab almost as an after-thought late in drafts or buy them for two bucks in an auction. But not any more.

The recent SOFA auction is a good example. Nothing like an auction to watch a few guys throw reason out the window to get one particular player. It is hilarious unless you are one of those guys whose draft plans DEPENDS ON GETTING THIS GUY DAMMIT.

The “What the Hell are you guys doing to me” players are:

The Dallas defense. I am not above the occasional stubborn streak and I bought them for $7. The Vikings only cost $5. All but six teams went for a buck. They have that week 10 bye so you only have to carry one defense which is nice. But it’s not like the Dallas defense has been a fantasy goldmine since the early 90’s. Yeah, I am a Cowboys fan too but hey - I like them this year. I am not alone, evidently.

Nick Folk. Yeah a kicker. I let someone else pay the $3 for him since I had the $2 bid. I never pay more than a buck. Yeah, week ten bye is nice. But it is not like the Cowboys have been a leader in field goals recently… maybe ever actually.

Chris Johnson. Listen, I have Johnson in almost every league I am in. Back in June, I was drafting him in the 12th round. In SOFA, I just paid $23 for him. I cannot believe I did, but I did. If Johnson shows up as even just an average fantasy back, I’m golden. If he flops, no big deal except by now I just paid $23 for him. That’s the same amount that Brandon Jacobs and Michael Turner went for (who are, by the way, starters). Oh, this is even better. Lendale White, who I do not own, only went for $12 and he is the starter. But the hype machine now means that I am paying ridiculous prices in order to get the complete set of Chris Johnsons. Ridiculous. And even worse that it was me and one other “I heart Chris” bidder going head to head for the final $15 while everyone else laughed.

Darren McFadden went earlier for only $19 bucks and he was the first back taken. Leave Chris alone! I only have one more draft!

Marion Barber. Okay, I do follow the Cowboys but even I am not getting the Barber-mania that runs rampant through out the land. I live in Dallas in no less. Sure Barber could be a touchdown machine and all but Felix Jones was brought on board to be everything that Julius Jones wasn’t. Mid-first rounder? Not for me. 7th most expensive running back in the auction? Someone else can have him. I love watching others in a bidding war I would never touch.

Calvin Johnson. Look I own Calvin on my dynasty team. I wanted him dearly on all my other teams. Problem is that I missed him in every draft. The SOFA auction is where I was going to ensure that I got him. Instead, I let him go for $34 as the seventh highest paid wideout. That is only $11 less than Randy Moss. $6 less than Terrell Owens. I have no chance on getting Calvin so he must be due to explode by the communal expectations.

Speaking of auctions, here is perhaps the greatest example of the hype machine.

Roy Williams - $22 (mine by the way after missing Calvin)
Plaxico Burress - $22
Josh Morgan - $23

Amazing. A #4 rookie on the worst passing team from 2007 now is worthy of WR2 money.

You have GOT to do auctions. You lose a lot of players to hype but get to see a lot more.

Well, he finally managed to get back into the NFL after his tearful retirement in March when he said “all good things must end”. And so he was correct. Still.

Favre not only now owns every significant career mark for quarterbacks, he also had the remarkable string of 255 starts with one team and had never missed a game in his career. Perhaps no other player is so closely identified with his team than Favre and the Packers. His retirement was the end of an era and the conclusion of one of the greatest stories ever told about a quarterback. Now in New York playing for the Jets? It’s like going to see the sequel of a blockbuster movie that you know was only created to make money and that would not feature any of the characters or drama of the original. In this case, instead of money - which Favre has more than he can spend - it is career stats that he wants to bury.

You see, as unbelievable as his statistics are there is one reality that maybe occurred to him. Over 16 years, Favre averaged 3835 yards and 27 touchdowns per season. And after ten years, Peyton Manning has averaged 4162 yards and 30 touchdowns per season. And he didn’t take off his rookie year either. As record-setting as Favre’s numbers are, Manning can catch him. And surpass him. He is seven years younger than Favre.

This all smacks of Emmitt Smith going to the Cardinals, something as a Cowboys fan I still have yet to completely admit happened. Emmitt himself said he regretted the move. Probably no other player had the same impact to his team and position as Emmitt and Brett have had. But no - Favre wants to still play. And it is not about money. It is probably not about ego though let’s not count that out entirely. It is about competitive fire… or is it just about records?

Johnny Unitas played in San Diego for a few games after 17 years with the Colts. Joe Namath played with the Rams for four games after 12 years with the Jets. Favre is hardly the first all-star quarterback to change teams in the dusk of their career. Not everyone can replicate John Elway’s hoisting of the Lombardi Trophy and then trot on out the door.

There just seems like some major bad mojo from this. It just screams that something bad is going to happen, that you cannot do something so unnatural as have Favre play in New York. Granted, the uniforms are still green but that’s about the end of the similarities. You could hardly find a bigger difference than the one between Milwaukee and New York City.

What scares me the most is that the NFL’s Ironman, the one that has never missed a game in 255 starts is getting older and now has to learn a new offense with new teammates in a new place. Emmitt Smith was incredibly durable in those final eight years in Dallas but in Arizona missed seven games over two seasons. This move is tempting fate and football needs the icon for “always show up, never get hurt”. Let’s hope it stays that way.

One of the long-time vets on The Huddle message board recently questioned my rankings of the Carolina backfield and made me dig a bit deeper on the comparison of Williams and Stewart and exactly how would HC John Fox lean towards making Stewart the primary (much less a full-time) running back when his history has always preferred veterans over inexperienced rookies. For the record, I have Stewart currently at 17th and Williams at 45th.

How many of you have asked the same thing? The rook or the vet?

My first reaction is that Jonathan Stewart just signed a 4-year deal worth $20 million with $12 million guaranteed. Money talks. But, as was pointed out to me, history is rife with players being paid a ton of money as a rookie and contributing little or nothing. Fair enough and rather true.

To me, the reality revolves around the two players involved.

Williams has never been anything but a part-time back. He has never had more than 144 carries in a season and last year had more than 15 carries in a game only twice ( vs. SF and week 17 in TB). Williams has never proven capable as a heavy-duty back and the fact that the Panthers would spend big money on a back that is the perfect build for a power rushing game also says a lot.

It is very probable that Fox will start DeAngelo Williams in the first game and will continue for as long as he needs to be comfortable switching the roles. And I would also concede that it is more common for people to be overly optimistic about a change happening. Considering that, Williams could prove to be an absolute steal in drafts this year. Stewart’s higher draft value is based on optimism and speculation.

What people are buying into, including myself, is that the Panthers have never wanted to use Williams as the primary runner in two seasons. The offense installed last year was supposed to be a perfect fit for Williams. It never happened and the Panthers instead opted to use Foster for 247 carries when he was so bad (3.5 YPC) that they just cut him in the offseason. So in an offense supposedly well suited to Williams and with Foster generally stinking it up last year and getting released, they still never bothered to rely on DeAngelo. Instead, they used their first pick in the draft to acquire a power back that will fit their offense.

To me it is not a question if Stewart becomes the primary back over Williams because I cannot devise a reason why that would not happen. To me the question is how successful will Stewart be and how much would that convince Fox to further increase Stewart’s role at the expense of DW?

One other qualifier here. I am not so sure that the Panthers even remember what a highly productive back looks like. Consider the lead tailbacks since Fox took over:

2002 - Lamar Smith 209-737, 7 TD (this is what it sounds like when doves cry)
2003 - Stephen Davis 318-1444, 8 D (and with the same size and characteristics as Stewart)
2004 - Nick Goings 217-821, 6 TD (Davis hurt after 2 gms)
2005 - DeShaun Foster 205-879, 2 TD (but Davis had 180 carries and 12 TDs as the goal line guy)
2006 - DeShaun Foster 227-897, 3 TD (DW had 121-501 as a rookie)
2007 - DeShaun Foster 247-876, 3 TD (DW with 144-717)

So, HC Fox has gone to war with lead runners of Lamar Smith, Nick Goings, Deshaun Foster and Stephen Davis. Only Davis had any success and was given 318 carries in his first year there when he was 29 years old and had played 7 years in WAS. He broke down the next year when he turned 30. It is my long-held contention that Foster has never been worthy of being an NFL starter and finally the Panthers and the whole NFL also agreed. So Fox has really only had one year with a decent primary RB. And now he has drafted a clone of Stephen Davis only this guy comes off a far more impressive year in college and was drafted at the 1.13 instead of the 4th round like Davis.

It is speculation in the end just as expecting Williams to be given more work despite everything pointing away from it - at least after the first few games. But the bottom line is that Fox will use whatever mixture in his backfield that will produce the best results - and that delightfully cannot be known until it happens.

While normally I will write about something football related - it is about all I know - this week I have to ask a perplexing question. Whatever happened to “wing windows”? I would suppose many of you have no idea what I am talking about but for those of us who have driven or at least recall being front seat passengers in cars made prior to maybe the mid-70’s, cars had wing windows. They were small triangular shaped windows at the front of either side of the front seat. Basically, front car windows were largely rectangular and then the wing window fitted in the angled part of the door that would meet up with windshield frame.

Here is an example.

In this day of $4 per gallon gasoline, not running the air conditioner makes sense as long as there is a way to cool down the car. Wing windows were great, you just popped it out to catch the wind and voila - you had a nice breeze rushing through the car. It cooled down the car nicely with fresh air. It was useful too if one of your occupants had been eating Mexican food and suddenly came down with a case of the butt burps.

I remember people who smoked would pop it open and it would automatically suck out the smoke. Of course it also made it really easy to throw said cigarette butt out the window as well, but you take the good with the bad. Only now they are gone. Where?

Thinking back, I know I had wing windows on my first boat… I mean car … a very used 1968 Impala SS. I had a 1974 Gran Torino Sport that had them I think. I had a 1968 Montego I bought from my grandmother that had them too. Not sure about the Vega that still makes me wince. I sort of went through cars quickly as a youth but then again my first four cars combined probably only totaled about $3000 at most.

I am guessing that wing windows never made it out of the 70’s along with full-sized spare tires and eight track tapes. And yes, we once had real extra tires in our trunks. Then again, we were buying used cars back then before only “pre-owned” cars came around.

I do not wax nostalgic about much. I fully embrace computers, the internet, cell phones, microwaves and pretty much any technology that allows me to more comfortably and effectively work and play. But you know, I miss those wing windows. I wonder what cheapskate automaker was the first to get rid of them?

I wonder why we never said anything at the time?

Heading towards training camp and then the regular season, this is the time when fantasy football begins to get fun again for the year. The reason why can be best captured by just listing a few names:

Kevin Jones, Shaun Alexander, Travis Henry and Cedric Benson.

Those are four of the free agents in the NFL who are sitting on the sideline waiting for the phone call, any phone call, that can get them back onto the field. And yet each has been viewed as a fantasy football star in the past if only in their potential. Jones was a first rounder in 2004 and flirted with being a stud during the rare times he was not wearing a boot, brace, bandage or cast. He’s alternatively been one of the highest scoring running back for the week and then been lost for the season the next Sunday. Happens all the time.

Alexander was briefly the highest scoring running back in the history of the NFL. He spent his first season as a nobody watching Ricky Waters play and then exploded on the NFL scene with five straight 1000 yard seasons that in 2005 produced 27 rushing scores and 1880 rushing yards. In the two seasons since being “the must have guy”, Alexander has only scored 11 times and dropped from a 5.1 YPG to just 3.5. He’s been chronically injured as of late and turns 31 this year. Truly a sky rocket that exploded in 2005 and now just drifts back to earth in search of a team. That is just two years from being a fantasy goldmine to being nothing more than a landmine.

Travis Henry has spent his career being the guy that the team reluctantly relies on and gets back great returns for a year, then mysteriously replaces or cuts him. Happened in Buffalo and Tennessee but in Denver in 2007, everything finally came into alignment. The unquestioned starter in an offense that had long produced stud running backs out of little more than sticks and mud. And Henry flopped, got suspended and unsuspended and then got hurt. And in yet another cloud of smoke, he is back on the waiver wire.

Cedric Benson should be the thesis subject for anyone wanting a PhD in Sports Management. It’s all there. The High School superstar who became a stud at the University of Texas. By the time he left UT, he had most of their records and a few for the NCAA as well. You could not find a back of more prototypical size, speed, power and background. And then in the most ill-advised holdout in perhaps NFL history, Benson pissed off everyone in Chicago including his offensive linemen. The high durable back then started losing time to injury and balanced his few flashes with far too many yawns. After two arrests he was released by the Bears who may have just been looking for a decent reason anyway.

And those guys are some of the reasons I love fantasy football. It changes. It is supremely dynamic. It is a team sport that produces individual stats which are the basis for our hobby. But it is a team sport first and foremost and completely so to coaches and owners.

There is no resting on your laurels in fantasy football because it is undergoing constant change every year. Even without the great equalizer of injury, the game constantly changes. For every injury-prone back like Jones, for every over the hill back like Alexander and for every screw-up back like Benson or Henry, there are a dozen players waiting for the chance to play and take their place. And many of them are just as good. And most of them will end up injury-prone or self-destructive or just plain not quite good enough.

You only have to look back a couple of years to see just how much things change. Just two seasons ago, the top scoring running backs included Tiki Barber, LaDell Betts, Ahman Green and Chester Taylor. Knowing that every team will change, it makes watching the game more enjoyable knowing that you are not just seeing actors reading scripts, this is a constantly changing high-stakes competition. Frustrating? Sure. Rewarding? Sometimes. Boring? Never.

It’s like looking at the top tens from the previous season and asking yourself “which five will be gone this year?”. And knowing that every player will have at least some impact on the rest of his team. It all become so deliciously complicated that every season is like reading the best novel you have ever read only you have a stake in the ending.

Chapter One…