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Sleepers by Matchup
Looking at the Week 6 matchups, there look to be at least one player that could be classified as a “sleeper”. Some are “deeper” than others, but hey, you can’t be picky. Let’s take a look at one sleeper per matchup for Week 6.
BAL@IND: Anthony Gonzalez (WR - IND) Gonzalez will draw the nickel corner, which will likely be Frank Walker. The Raven secondary is a bit dinged, and they’ll definitely focus on Reggie Wayne and Marvin Harrison. Gonzalez will likely be used on quick, short routes. He’s a nice sleeper in a PPR league this week. Prediction: 6 catches, 60 yards
CAR@TBB: Jonathan Stewart (RB - CAR) Last week, it was DeAngelo Williams. This week, it very well could be Stewart that puts up the better stats out of the Panther RB duo. Stewart’s pounding running style suits well against the front seven of the Bucs. The big rookie will likely find the end zone this week, too. Prediction: 65 yards rushing, 1 TD, 2 catches, 15 yards receiving
CHI@ATL: Greg Olsen (TE - CHI) As I discussed last week, a good tight end is hard to come by. Olsen started the season pretty quietly, and hasn’t put up huge stats, but is definitely serviceable. This week, he’s a real nice start. The overmatched Falcon offense will be concerned with the downfield threat in Rashied Davis, the underneath route running of Marty Booker, and the versatility and speed of Devin Hester. Look for Olsen to blend in and appear in the flats for a few catches, one of which may be a score. Prediction: 4 catches, 55 yards, 1 TD
CIN@NYJ: Cedric Benson (RB - CIN) Benson is a different runner than Kenny Watson, but Watson tore up the Jets last season to the tune of 130 yards and 3 scores. Again, Benson is a different runner, but HC Marvin Lewis has promised Benson will get an increased workload this week. Many of his carries could come in garbage time, as the Jets will likely rip the Bengals early. But hey, stats are stats and Benson could rack up 60-70 yards and a score. Prediction: 65 yards, 1 TD
DAL@ARI: Early Doucet (WR - ARI) Doucet was a deep sleeper of mine coming into the season, figuring that either a) one of the Cardinals’ “big two” would get hurt or b) Doucet would be effective in the slot. That got a little skewed after Steve Breaston came alive. But Doucet did have a decent Week 5 game, and could be effective against the banged-up, Swiss cheese Dallas defense. Especially valuable in PPR leagues, Doucet could serve as a nice #3 fantasy WR in larger leagues. Prediction: 5 catches, 50 yards
DET@MIN: Chester Taylor (RB - MIN) Taylor might get some garbage time work. Heck, he may even get some “real” work. Should be a blowout, so the Vikes will likely rest their big gun AP at every chance possible. Taylor has some value as a flex back in larger leagues this week. Prediction: 40 yards rushing, 3 catches, 20 yard receiving
GBP@SEA: Julius Jones (RB - SEA) Jones is a different kind of sleeper here. We all know what he’s done thus far in the 2008 season, but we may not realize that he’s done most of his fantasy damage at home. The Packer D has not looked all too great and is a bit banged up. Could be a huge week for Jones, so if you’re in a weekly play league, he’s a nice choice. Prediction: 100 yards rushing, 1 TD, 3 catches, 15 yards
JAX@DEN: Dennis Northcutt (WR - JAX) Bit of a deeper sleeper here. Last week Mike Walker exploded onto the scene but hurt his knee, so may not play this week. Matt Jones will be shadowed by the big, aggressive Champ Bailey. Look for Northcutt to use his veteran savvy to burn the Denver secondary. Prediction: 5 catches, 55 yards, 1 TD
MIA@HOU: Ricky Williams (RB - MIA) The Texans have given up seven rushing TDs in four games. Odds are that the strong running attack of the Dolphins will net them a couple scores. One of those scores will likely go to Ronnie Brown, but Williams has a chance at putting one in too. Williams is a decent flex back this week. Prediction: 45 yards rushing, 1 TD, 1 catch, 5 yards receiving
OAK@NOS: JaMarcus Russell (QB - OAK) New Raider HC Tom Cable is going to kick the tires on his franchise QB this week in a game which lends itself to a shootout. Russell returns home to Louisiana and could put on a show. Prediction: 240 yards passing, 2 TDs, 1 INT, 15 yards rushing
PHI@SF: Correll Buckhalter (RB - PHI) Brian Westbrook isn’t playing on Sunday. Enter Buckhalter as the starter. The Niner rush D hasn’t been all that great and will yield at least one rushing score. Look for Buckhalter to get around 20 carries. Prediction: 90 yards rushing, 1 TD, 3 catches, 25 yards receiving
STL@WAS: Shaun Suisham (PK - WAS) You just knew I’d throw a kicker into the mix here. Suisham has been money this season, and the Redskins should score a lot against the hapless Rams. The Ram D, however, may put the clamps down on the Skin offense a few times, giving Suisham a few FG changes. Prediction: 3 FG, 3 XP
NEP@SDC: Vincent Jackson (WR - SDC) V-Jax has yet to really break out this season, but does have a few decent games and remains a consistent target for Philip Rivers. With both LT and Antonio Gates still hobbled by various injuries, Chris Chambers and V-Jax will need to step up against the rather average Patriot secondary. Prediction: 5 catches, 60 yards receiving, 1 TD
NYG@CLE: Jamal Lewis (RB - CLE) Going out on a limb a little bit here, as the Giant defense has stifled opposing RBs this year. But the Browns won’t want to be embarrassed on Monday Night Football and will look to - somehow - control the game. The best way to do that would be to pound Lewis. While he’s only averaging 3.4 yards a carry, he could always bust one off against the aggressive (sometimes overly-aggressive) Giant front seven. Prediction: 80 yards rushing, 1 TD, 2 catches, 15 yards receiving
Loosening the Tight End Market
What the heck is going on with the tight end position this season? I’m actually in a league that does not require you to start a TE (you can start one as a WR if you elect to). Is this an antiquated league, or are we on to something? Back in the day, there were really only a handful of TEs you could rely on. Then, as the position began to “develop” a bit, it was much easier to draft and rely on a TE. Are we headed back to “the day” where tight ends are really at a premium; where there are a few guys you can rely on, and then a bunch of fluff? Let’s take a look at a few names:
1. Jason Witten (DAL): No surprise he’s the top scoring TE. This guy is good. Clearly Tony Romo’s favorite target. He keeps the chains moving and makes catches that he really shouldn’t.
2. Zach Miller (OAK) and Greg Olsen (CHI): These young bucks stink up the joint for three weeks and then blow up (Miller goes for 5 catches, 95 yards and a score; Olsen has 4 catches, 35 yards and a score). I’m sure people will jump all over these guys, searching for a steady producer at the TE position. Do I blame them? Of course not.
3. Todd Heap (BAL): This guy’s not even in the top-25 at his position. OK, we’ll give him the benefit of the doubt, as of press time for this blog he hadn’t played in Week 4, and the Ravens had an unscheduled bye. But just goes to show, you can’t rely on TEs out of the first tier.
4. Anthony Fasano (MIA): Or wait, maybe you can rely on some guys outside the first tier. Fasano threw up a goose egg in Week 2, but averaged 19 fantasy points in Weeks 1 and 3. Some feel the Dolphins’ acquiring of Fasano was a bit of a steal. They may be right.
5. Kevin Boss (NYG): Come on. Did you really think this guy would be as good as Jeremy Shockey? Anywhere close to Jeremy Shockey? Sorry Charlie, you can hate Jeremy Shockey, but that guy is a gamer, and Boss is an average tight end.
Speaking of Jeremy Shockey, I expect him to come back strong for the Saints. He had a couple of very solid efforts for the Saints before getting injured. If he’s able to come back 100% (read: not force the issue), he’ll be one of the steadier TEs to round out the 2008 season. Another couple TE names I’m looking at here as we move to Week 5 are Houston’s Owen Daniels and Minnesota’s Vishanthe Shiancoe .
Daniels was my top TE sleeper of 2008, and hasn’t really disappointed. He “only” had 3 catches for 33 yards in the Texans’ opener, causing some impatient owners to question his ability. Sigh. After the unscheduled bye, Daniels had 11.1 and 15.7 fantasy points in Week 3 and 4. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: if there’s going to be anyone to challenge Jason Witten for TE supremacy (in PPR formats) in the next couple of years, it’s Daniels.
Vishante Shiancoe, you say? Yes, yes I do. Look at the numbers. Realize why it’s not a fluke. Numbers with Tarvaris Jackson under center: 4.2 fantasy points per game. Numbers with the grizzly vet Gus Frerotte under center: 10.3 fantasy points per game. I shouldn’t need to tell you to go out and grab Shiancoe if he’s available in your league and you’ve been relying on one-week wonders like Dante Rosario or guys like Kevin Boss.
Hope this helps you get a better idea of the tight end market in 2008. Don’t agree with me? Loosen up, people… it’s a very tight market in fantasy football this season. Get used to it.
Names You Can Rely On
This season, I’m writing about IDPs solely. Sometimes I get too caught up in them and forget that we actually start offensive players on our fantasy teams! That said, I’ll likely be doing a weekly blog entry about the “other” side of the ball — the offense!
Here’s some names on the Site Owners Fantasy Association (SOFA) league top-30 that jump out at me, for various reasons:
Reggie Bush (RB - NOS): Bush is currently the top dog in this league’s scoring format. In fact, he’s a full 13 fantasy points ahead the #2 guy, Marion Barber. Why is Bush’s name jumping out at me? Because I think, in a PPR format, that Bush is going to be a pure stud for the rest of the season and in years to come. He’s leading the league in receptions, and the Saints’ offense will definitely run through him for the rest of the year. Getting Marques Colston back will only help stretch the field and give Bush more opportunities. Looks that went to the injured Jeremy Shockey may actually go to Bush now, but he may not see as much running room. All in all, I expect Bush to stay in the top tier of RBs this season.
Donovan McNabb (QB - PHI): Even with the 11.64-point dog of a game in Week 3, McNabb’s the #5 fantasy QB at this point. Ahead of guys like Tony Romo, Peyton Manning and Carson Palmer. To boot, McNabb hasn’t had his top two WRs thus far! Reggie Brown and Kevin Curtis are both nursing injuries, but so what? Enter DeSean Jackson and the venerable Hank Baskett and you have yourself an offensive juggernaut! But really, McNabb has always done more with less, so this really isn’t a huge shock. McNabb is healthy (or at least he started the season healthy… he was dinged last week) and looks like his old, spry self. If he can avoid the injury bug, there’s no reason to think McNabb won’t be one of the best fantasy QBs, especially with his WRs returning soon.
Matt Forte (RB - CHI): Wow, really? Forte is blowing other rookies out of the water thus far in 2008. He’s the #10 fantasy performer in the SOFA scoring system. The Bears aren’t quite as bad as we thought (and even as a Bear fan, I was skeptical) and Forte has looked pretty good. We’ll see what this kid is all about on Sunday night when the aggressive Eagle defense comes to town. If he can manage 15-20 fantasy points, we can say he’s for real.
Aaron Rodgers (QB - GBP): Now for a name I don’t expect to be amongst the cream of the crop for long. Sure, the kid will probably lead the Packers to a couple of wins in a row (@ TBB and vs. ATL) but what happens when a few real tough teams (SEA, IND, TEN, MIN) are on the docket and he loses a few games? “He’s no Brett Favre!!!”. I avoided Rodgers (and guys like Greg Jennings) because I thought Rodgers wouldn’t be able to handle the pressure of the impending media circus. I was wrong - at least to start the season. But the season’s 16 games long and there’s still the chance that he folds under the pressure. As the temperature drops in the midwest, so too will Rodgers’ fantasy output. You heard it here first.
Julius Jones (RB - SEA): A little bit of a self pat-on-the-back here, but when me and my WCOFF drafting mate were staring at a mid-round selection of a much-needed RB, we were between LenDale White and Julius Jones. I liked both alright but something in my gut told me to go with Jones. Having been a Maurice Morris owner in the past, I know that he’s nothing but a backup. T.J. Duckett is a decent back but by no means can he carry the load. Jones has been solid thus far, especially in the past two weeks. Had the game last week not been a blowout, he very well could have put up a Ronnie Brown type of effort. Duckett stole two TDs and was the back that the Hawks opted for late in the game to bang out the yards. Still, Jones finished with 140 yards and a score. Now, look at Seattle’s schedule: after their bye, they have a couple of toughies (GBP and NYG) but then it gets ultra soft, with games against the Dolphins, Cardinals, Niners and Rams. Even the other “tougher” matchups (NEP, WAS, etc.) still could turn out good numbers for Jones. Going forward, Jones is an awesome #2 fantasy RB.
IDP Hot and Not - BONUS
Check us out every other week on Tuesdays (in the main content area), where we’ll give you a flavor of what IDPs are hot and look to continue their streaks and which ones are not that you might consider benching in coming weeks or dropping altogether.
LINEBACKERS
HOT
Jonathan Vilma (NOS) – Vilma is now the top-scoring LB (per scoring system defined below) after a huge Week 2 (27 fantasy points). Not like he had a weak Week 1 either (16 points). Looks like getting out of the Jets’ 3-4 system has re-energized this dynamic, playmaking linebacker. Get him in your lineup, and if you’re in a “limited” IDP league, he’s definitely a top candidate to be your guy.
Channing Crowder (MIA) – It was not a forgone conclusion that Crowder would step in and automatically replace Zach Thomas as the leader of this defense. But Crowder’s put up two solid weeks’ worth of fantasy stats and could continue to rack up the tackles as the season progresses.
Eric Barton (NYJ) – Here’s a “hot” candidate that’s also a candidate for an IDP sleeper to pick up off your league’s waiver wire. Barton has always put up serviceable numbers in the Jets’ 3-4, and if he’s on a hot streak, he could easily serve as a third fantasy LB. In smaller IDP leagues, just keep him on your radar.
NOT
Keith Bulluck (TEN) – I’ll admit it: I was one of the ones that backed Bulluck’s comeback this season. He hasn’t done anything to signal that he’s going to break out this season (9 total fantasy points this season). In smaller leagues, you might consider dropping him, but in most leagues, put him on your bench until he regains form.
DEFENSIVE LINEMEN
HOT
James Hall (DT – STL) – Hall was brought in to improve the Rams’ pass rush, alongside DE Leonard Little and the rookie sensation, Chris Long. Well, Little has been inactive the first two weeks of the season, and Long, while he looked promising last week (9 fantasy points), hasn’t made a huge impact yet. All Hall has done in Little’s absence (and starting in his place) is put up 18 and 11 fantasy points in the first two weeks. Big-time bonus is the fact that he’s DT-eligible at MyFantasyLeague.com. As IDP veterans know, DT is a tough position to fill with a consistent performer.
Patrick Kerney (DE – SEA) – With Seattle’s run-stuffing DT Rocky Bernard (who is also a good inside pass-rusher) back for Week 2, Kerney (and the rest of the Seattle defense) let loose with the sacks. Kerney had two, and the Seattle defense had a total of eight against the Niners. Kerney is no spring chicken (32 years old this December), but still has a “high motor”, and could top double-digit sacks again this season.
NOT
Andre Carter (DE – WAS) – Even without Jason Taylor on the other side, Carter was poised to have another solid fantasy season. Yes, the season is only two weeks old, but Carter has only 12 fantasy points thus far. The Skins have a few tough matchups upcoming, but Carter could get his game going against the Cards this week and the Rams Week 6.
DEFENSIVE BACKS
HOT
Chris Gamble (CB – CAR) – Whoa, where did this guy come from? Richard Marshall set the fantasy world ablaze with his uncommon fantasy output from a nickel-back, but so far this year, it’s been the starter Gamble that has been putting up the ridiculous stats. Gamble’s Week 1 21 fantasy points could have been construed as a fluke, if it weren’t for his 20 this week. Gamble may have fewer opportunities in the next few weeks, so it might be a good time to “sell high” if you own Gamble. Or you could “take the Gamble”, so to speak, and hope this hot streak continues.
Mike Adams (S – CLE) – With the Brown secondary ailing, Adams has stepped in and performed admirably, from a fantasy standpoint. The Brown IDPs have generally stunk as of late, so it’s refreshing to see one on this list. Adams has a pair of solid matchups in the next two weeks, so go ahead and add him to your roster and start him if you have no better options.
Phillip Buchanon (CB – TBB) – Few thought Buchanon would be able to follow up his hot Week 1 with another big game, but he did. The Buc corner compiled five solos and broke up two passes against the Falcons. In leagues that force you to start CBs, Buchanon could be a sneaky play against the Bears (see Gamble, Chris) and Packers in the next two weeks.
NOT
Richard Marshall (CB – CAR) – Following up on what was said about Chris Gamble, we take a look at Richard Marshall. Marshall had a huge 2007 season, putting up ridiculous stats as a situational cornerback. No such luck this season, as he’s only got seven fantasy points over two weeks’ time. He’ll likely have his share of big games, even with Gamble performing well. Be patient.
Scoring system used for this report – solo tackle (2), assisted tackle (1), sack (3), forced or recovered fumble (3), interception (3) and pass defensed (1)
Countdown to WCOFF - T-minus four days and counting…
The day draws near… may or may not blog tomorrow or Friday, as I’m leaving for Sin City tomorrow morning. Woohoo! In any case, did want to post this: the four players I’m staying far, far away from this season.
Brandon Jacobs (RB - NYG): Never been a fan of the big guy. And let me stress “big”. Dude is 6′4″, 260 lbs. By far the tallest (Steven Jackson is next closest at 6′2″) and heaviest (LenDale White is next closest at 235 lbs.). On top of all that, Jacobs is known for running far too upright. Jacobs fumbled the ball five times last year, losing four. I would much rather have the shifty pass-catching Ahmad Bradshaw on my squad as a flex or backup back than Jacobs as my RB2.
Aaron Rodgers (QB - GBP): Yeah, how about a quarterback to avoid? I’ve already discussed Jay Cutler here on my blog and on The Huddle’s fine message boards, so I’ll pick out another one for this blog. I’m just gonna avoid all Packers involved in the pass game unless Greg Jennings somehow slips. The post-Favre era is going to be a circus, I think. Rodgers isn’t a horrible QB (from what I can tell) but the pressure is going to be massive. There will always be comparisons. In leagues that penalize for INTs, I’m staying far, far away from Fav…. err.. Rodgers.
T.J. Houshmanzadeh (WR - CIN): Now let’s move to a wideout. Dont’ get me wrong, I like Housh’s game and think he’s been UNDER-rated for a few years, but I just don’t like him this season. The Bengal offense (heck, the entire Bengal team) is going to be a mess this season. Chad Johnson (err, sorry… Ocho Cinco) is going to be commanding the ball, and rightly so. I just don’t see Housh putting up top-10 numbers. I don’t see him putting up top-15 or even top-20 numbers. Sure, I’ve been wrong before and don’t mind eating a little humble pie if I’m wrong, but I just don’t see any more than 7-8 TDs and 900-1,000 yards or so.
Chris Cooley (TE - WAS): Another guy that I like, just not this year. I think the Redskin rookie WRs Devin Thomas and Malcolm Kelly are going to become important cogs in this offense by mid-season. Antwan Randle-El and Santana Moss are solid guys in the slot, and Jim Zorn will be pounding Clinton Portis a ton. I just don’t see how Cooley puts up top-10 TE numbers this season.
So there ya go, four guys that I’ve avoided in drafts this season and will definitely push to avoid come Saturday at WCOFF. Like I said, I may or may not post a blog here tomorrow, but I’ll sure try!
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