As I start to shake off the dust from another “off-season” and prepare for a new fantasy football marathon, (It is only May, and I proclaim the “off-season” over…how sick is that?) I begin my yearly quest with a look back at the past. I read over some of my blogs from last year, and I notice that some of them were really good, and some were not so good. And the same goes with my fantasy football decisions last season.

For instance, before last season in my dynasty league I decided that I needed an upgrade at tight end. And I needed more muscle on my team overall. I got lucky. Last summer, not long after Mike Vick was accused of his wrong-doings, I worked a deal to trade Alge Crumpler, Mark Clayton, and Tarvaris Jackson for Antonio Gates. Stud grand theft.

It looks worse now than it did then, because at that moment in time the trade did not appear quite as lopsided as it does now. Crumpler had been steady. Clayton was coming off a breakout season of sorts and appeared on the rise. And Jackson was a starting quarterback. And in a league that hordes quarterbacks like there is no tomorrow, even a bad starting quarterback is worth a roster spot.

I just didn’t feel good about any of them. I was right.

But on the other side of the coin we have the Ryan Grant fiasco. Yes, I had the inclination to pick him up off waivers in week 2. And I held him. Right up until after week 6. He had done nothing so far though, and I had some sort of pressing bye week need need that I can’t recall right now, and the Packers were on a bye in week 7. Surely I could put him out on waivers and get him right back after his bye week.

I could sneak him through. I was wrong.

I let the most valuable player off the waiver wire last season slip right through my fingers. For the Packers decided at the precise moment I put him on the waiver wire, that he was the savior at running back.

Patience my son. Patience.

I will be paying for that one for just about as long as I will be reaping rewards from the Gates deal. Those two critical moves were a zero sum game.

And you do not have the luxury of floundering about like that in a league where your division is won yearly by a team with a starting lineup that consists of Carson Palmer, Tomlinson, S. Jax, A. Peterson, Steve Smith, Andre Johnson, Roy Williams, and Kellen Winslow. That is a murderers row my friends. I challenge you to submit a better lineup from any of your leagues. Absolutely the best I have ever seen.

But that all star team still hasn’t won a championship.

That’s right. That team has lost in the championship game 3 years in a row. He blows the league away in points scored every season, but he just can’t win the big one.

There are no guarantees. There is no sure thing. There is instinct. There is patience. There is luck. The right combination of those can win you a championship.

My instincts are pretty sharp. My patience is a little too thin. And my luck is…well, I’d really rather not talk about that.

Just thought I would let you in on my pre-season self analysis…er self loathing that is.

But a new season is creeping up on us. We must shed ourselves of the sins of the past. For there will be other Ryan Grants. There is a Ryan Grant almost every season. Ahh, per chance to dream…

In dynasty leagues in particular, right now is a great time to put your instincts to work. Take a look at your league rosters. There are guys on rosters that have underperformed. In some cases the owners have held onto these players for years with no appreciable return. Maybe they are ready to bail. Maybe you think their guys is about to bust out. Why not try and get him?

Every year there are players that rise from the muck and finally live up to their potential. Plucking one of those, and his owner in the process gives you a special feeling.

Almost as special as having some dumbass drop you Ryan Grant on waivers, just before he bursts on the scene as a legitimate fantasy option. Almost as special…

If there was one thing that I was sure of going into this year’s playoffs, it was that Bill Belichick would not get outcoached. One final personal truism of mine fell by the wayside. Belichick did get outcoached.

And the Patriots got outplayed. Plain and simple. When you can’t control the offensive line you can’t win the game. The Patriots lost this one in the trenches, like the legions of Super Bowl also rans before them.

The team that couldn’t be beat got beat. And they got beat bad.

The final score was not really indicative of the dominance displayed on the field. Truth be told, the Giants pretty much controlled the game from the start. The Patriots got outplayed.

Even so, in true Patriot fashion they still managed to keep the score close enough for the usual Tom Brady game winning touchdown drive in the closing minutes. The Giants defensive front, though shifting players in and out the entire game finally got tired from ramming full speed into the chest of Tom Brady all day long. And the Patriots were finally able to give Brady just a sliver of breathing room.

But in my opinion, the Patriots made a huge tactical error late in the game that probably cost them the game. A game they did not deserve to win, but in true Patriots fashion, still could have won.

When they drove to inside the Giants 10 yard line with about 2:30 left on the clock, I was stunned to see them throwing into the end zone to Randy Moss on first and goal. The Giants had time outs. They had clock. And the Patriots had a relatively fresh Laurence Maroney. I just wonder how the game would have turned out had the Patriots let Maroney carry the ball on first and goal, run the clock down to the two minute warning. Then run Maroney again on second down, forcing the Giants to use a time out. Then go for the touchdown pass on 3rd down. Even if they didn’t make it, they still have an easy field goal for the tie, and they have used up more of the clock, and taken at least one of the Giants time outs away. The Patriots score a touchdown on that 3rd and goal and it is probably game over.

Belichick made the same mistake so many others have made against him in these big games. He gave them one last chance.

Some will say my logic is flawed here, you score when you can score. But with the momentum the Giants had the Patriots should have seen what was coming. There is no way they should have left the Giants with 2 1/2 minutes and a handful of time outs.

Instead, the Giants did to the Patriots what the Patriots have done to others so many times over these last 7 seasons, especially in the Super Bowl. The last second heroics were not Brady’s this time. Eli was the star of this show. Tom Brady got outplayed by Eli Manning.

Raise your hand if you saw this one coming back in week 7.

My blog last week was entitled “The Harsh Super Bowl Reality.” Reality is a shifting and evolving thing. As it turned out, the actual harsh Superbowl reality was that the team I predicted would pull themselves together and administer an October-like beating on the Giants didn’t show up. I have never seen an offensive line get decimated like that. Not since the 2000 Ravens or maybe even the ‘85 Bears have I seen a performance like that in the big game. And I certainly give the Giants all the respect in the world for that. The Patriots offensive line was inpenetrable through most of the season. They were completely and utterly destroyed by the Giants. A virtual jailbreak on every play.

What seemed the Patriots ultimate trump card and strength early in the season proved to be an illusion. The Giants defensive front was the best unit in the game at seasons end, and absolutely the final and deciding factor in this game, and every playoff game the Giants won. They have my ultimate respect. They won the Superbowl. Eli got the MVP, and props to him. But we all know who made the run possible. They negated the Moss factor by spending the day pummeling Tom Brady. And that is the one thing the Patriots absolutely could not allow in the game.

Yes Virginia, any given Sunday still applies. And after what we have just witnessed, I think that term applies more now than ever. I fell on the knife. I bought into the Patriots. I proclaimed their dominance to the world time and time again. I sold my soul and professed my admiration in ways that made me sick on a weekly basis. But in the end I guess it was all worth it.

It is hard work taking down an evil empire my friends. It is hard work.

It certainly has been an interesting season, my first season with a blog. I have looked like a genius at times, I have looked like an idiot at times. Mostly the idiot thing. But always, self serving yet unabashedly honest.

But why re-hash the past I say. We have a Superbowl game left to watch. Down to one game. This wild and wacky football season has one foot in the grave. And for once in my life, I can honestly say I am ready for it to be over. My brain just can’t comprehend the NFL any more. Not for now.

One look at the Superbowl contenders tells you the story of the season.

The Patriots? Everybody pretty much expected them to be here from the moment they went on a WR signing spree last offseason. But on the brink of 19-0? I doubt even the most wacked Patriots fan (and that is saying something) would have realistically thought this possible. Perfection. On the line. And all of football’s talking heads that stood steadfast to the notion that an undefeated season just wasn’t possible in this parity driven reality that is the NFL may be proven wrong once again. Count me in that group. The Patriots exceeded even their own lofty expectations to this point.

The Giants? What the hell? I never saw this one coming. They looked dead in the water a couple of months ago. They were really good at finding ways to lose through the first 12 games. Teetering on being an also-ran in the incredibly below average NFC. But the defense has jelled on this team, and I swear I saw a light bulb come on over Eli Manning’s head about a month ago. Eli has started doing the “little things” that transform an NFL quarterback from average to good. Eli is looking off defenders, keeping the opposition off balance, and delivering the ball accurately and quickly. Did we just see this guy turn the corner? Or is it just a head fake that will leave the Giants fans feeling ill come Sunday? Who are these guys, and why do they have a big chunk of the population convinced they can lay waste to the chosen ones?

And the Giants do have people believing. But not me.

Oh no, I’m not climbing on the bandwagon. I have been down that road and it is a painful one. Not me. Not this time.

You know me. I am an underdog guy. Love to bet the underdog. Love to root for the underdog. Through Spock-like mind melds, I try to will underdogs to victory. And what has it got me? Mostly heartbreak. And after this season I am just too emotionally spent to put it all on the line for the G-Men.

And trust me, I would love to. I would love to climb aboard that crowded bandwagon with the rest of you, throw my support behind the Giants, and pump my fist in the air when they hoist the Lombardi on Sunday afternoon in amid the backdrop of a stunned Patriots team. Man that would be great. That would probably be one of the best moments of my life.

But it just isn’t going to happen. And I am not going to allow myself to even dream it. I just can’t tolerate any more pain this season. It is going to be painful enough to watch the Pats rewrite history. I just can’t delude myself into hoping, believing, or betting that it won’t happen. There is no more fight in this underdog. I have accepted the sickening and unavoidable truth. The Patriots are indeed going to win the Superbowl. And they will probably win it big.

All the Giants bandwagoners have plenty of ammunition. They have plenty of reason to hope. I understand that. And Sunday night I will sympathize with you. But I just can’t go on the ride with you.

“But Kevin, the Giants took the Patriots to the limit in week 17, they do not fear the Patriots like most teams. They know they can play with them. They have confidence. The Patriots just haven’t looked as dominate over the last month of the season. Kevin, why can’t you believe this can happen?”

Yeah, all of that it true. And Brady limping around in that boot last week was great theater. Really added fuel to the Giants bandwagon bonfire. But all of that is just an illusion.

The bottom line for me is this. Belichick has had two weeks to prepare his team. That is deadly.

This game will be played in a nice clean sterile laboratory. No elements. No wind. No rain. No snow. A fast track and Randy Moss against the Giants secondary. That is deadly.

And that is the deal breaker for me. The Patriots will not lose a game under such conditions. I have been saying it all along. To beat the Patriots, teams need elements in their favor to level the playing field. Because the Brady to Moss connection is just too much to overcome otherwise.

The Patriots will likely resemble the team that spent the fair weather first half of the season stomping opponents into a bloody slurry, rather than the one that looked entirely mortal when the winter winds put their killing spree on hiatus.

So stock up the liquor cabinet. Order your wings early. Enjoy the day drinking and eating yourself into oblivion with your friends. But don’t ruin it by betting your hard earned money on the Giants, or deluding yourself into thinking the governer will be calling in a reprieve. There is no Santa Claus. There is no Easter bunny. And there is no way in hell that the Giants are going to pull this off.

God that was painful. And if I look like an idiot come Monday morning, I will be one happy sumbitch. Well, as happy as an idiot with a hangover can be, that is. More likely I will be miserable and hung over. But at least I am prepared. My old Boy Scout troop leader would be proud.

The last two weeks I have filled this blog with playoff predictions against the spread. A 3-5 performance over that time has me thinking maybe it is time to hang it up. Hell, I can’t even tell you who will win a game outright, let alone against the number.

The Colts game was an epiphany for me. Despite our analysis, and best gut feelings about how games will play out, the players on the field still have to deliver. The Colts did not. The Chargers did in a big way.

If the Chargers can gut out a road victory over a heavily favored Colts team with half the team packing ice on the sidelines, I deem the NFL impossible to predict.

The improbable does happen. Marvin Harrison can catch a slant pass, and try to wriggle free of a tackle instead of tucking the ball and hitting the ground for a 20 yard gain. If Marvin Harrison makes that play the way I had seen him make it what seems 999 times in succession just the way I described it, the Colts likely go up 14-0 and the ballgame is over.

Or if Kenton Keith hadn’t tipped that pass at the goal lines into the arms of the defender laying on the ground.

Oh, yeah. And the Colts defense forgot to show up.

It is hard to predict things like that.

And so, packing my nasty bad mojo by my side, I have decided to make only one prediction this week. And you can call this one an iron-clad lock.

The New England Patriots will destroy the Chargers. Don’t even feed me any of that “team of destiny” crap with the Chargers.

And it isn’t because the Chargers are banged up. It isn’t because the Patriots don’t lose playoff games at home. It isn’t because the boys from California will be playing in the freezer. It isn’t because Tom Brady is Tom Brady and Phillip Rivers or Billy Volek are whatever quarterback shows up that day.

Turner v. Belichick. Even if you consider the teams on the field equal, the coaching mis-match is just too great. Yeah, Turner is getting lots of love after he out maneuvered Tony Dungy. But let’s get real. Is it possible that Bellichick makes Turner look like a mastermind a second week in a row? Really?

Come on. Belichick is playing chess, and Turner is playing checkers. Brady is re-writing the record books and dating supermodels, while Rivers gets in pointless fights with drunken idiot fans on the sidelines. It’s a clash of cultures.

I’ll take the chess playing, healthy, record setting, supermodel dating guys over the broken down, checker playing sideline screamers. It is just a matter of common sense.

And common sense has served me well so far. After what I have seen over the last 4 months, I believe anything is possible. Except an upset in this game. God has chosen his team and there is little we can do about it.

Unless Brady gets Tonya Harding’ed on his way out the tunnel, it is ova!

Seattle @ Green Bay I am hearing a lot of commentators give the Seahawks a good chance at pulling an upset. I disagree. The reasoning for those opinions usually has something to do with the fact that Holmgren knows Brett Favre. Yeah, I will give you that. Holmgren probably knows (or knew) Favre better than most of the coaches in the league. But does that mean he has a monkey wrench to throw in the Packers engine? Probably not.

The Packers started out the season winging the ball all over the field. But that was seemingly due mostly to the fact that they had trouble establishing a running game. Then along came Ryan Grant. The Packers are no longer one dimensional. But the Seahawks are. Don’t delude yourself.

The Seahawks furious comeback in the late part of the Redskins game has the public convinced that the 8 point spread is a gift. But we are likely to see a very different Seahawks team on the frozen tundra this Saturday. The team we will see Saturday will be playing to a hostile crowd and hostile weather conditions. Well, hostile to those Seahawks without heated pants that is. We all know by now that in the playoffs, especially in inclimate weather, teams must be able to run the ball effectively to win the game in most cases. I see no evidence that suggests the Seahawks will be able to do that.

Hasselbeck and the pass protection will be the key to this game. If he can dink and dunk his way through 4 quarters effectively the Seahawks could have a chance. But without a running attack, he may very well be forced to put the ball in the air 50 times. The Seahawks have more playoff experience. But the Packers appear to have the superior talent, despite their youth and inexperience. And they are rested. And they are healthy. They are balanced. And they are at home. Eight points is a lot to give, but I think that is the only way to play this one. Packers -8

Jacksonville @ New England This is a tough game to call. At 13 points plus in some places, it is the largest spread in the weekend of tough numbers. This is the matchup most wanted to see. Jacksonville has exactly the right type of attack to keep pressure on Brady, while shutting down the running game.

I would love to pick the Jags to win this game. I really like what they have done over the last half of the season, and truth be told they have been more impressive than the Patriots down the stretch. But if you are asking me if David Garrard is going to be able to match Brady blow for blow, I’m afraid I will have to say no.

The Patriots plan for this game will be simple. Strike early. Get that double digit lead. Then force Garrard to beat them through the air. If that happens, the 13 point spread will evaporate early in the contest.

The Jags need to establish heavy pressure on Brady early, and lay the kind of physical beating to the Patriots that has become their trademark. But for the Jags to have any chance, they have to be able to withstand the haymakers that will be coming their way out of the gate. If the Pats get up early, it will probably get ugly. The Jags are not built to come from behind.

The only caveat I will offer is that if the weather is nasty, with strong winds and or rain and snow, the Jags chances of victory go up in a big way. If the Pats are forced into a grind it out contest with the Jags, we could see the biggest upset in playoff history this side of Joe Namath. But if the weather is moderate, and Brady has his full complement of plays, the Pats should win this game and cover the lofty spread. While it concerns me greatly that the Pats finished the season 1-4 vs. the spread, I would only bet against them if Mother Nature lends a helping hand. Patriots-13

San Diego @ Indanapolis This one is pretty easy to me. The Colts stuff the run and pit Rivers against Manning. Manning with Harrison back. Reggie Wayne. Dallas Clark. And two pretty good pass catching running backs at his disposal. Rivers will probably be without Gates, and that is critical.

Don’t make this more complicated than it needs to be. We aren’t going to see a game here. The Chargers let the Titans hang around for most of the game last week. They barely took care of the six seed, after going scoreless in the first half. They will not have that luxury this weekend. I look for the Champs to look like champs and put a beatdown on Rivers and the Gates-less Chargers. Colts -9

NY Giants @ Dallas Wow, was I ever wrong about the Giants last week. Who knew that “good Eli” would show up just in the nick of time. If the Giants can get the same kind of pressure on lovesick Romo that they got on Garcia last week, and good Eli shows up again this one could be very interesting. And with Owens looking iffy, and Romo with far more than football on his mind, it is not beyond the realm of possibility that the Giants coud shock the world for the second weekend in a row.

In any case, I am seeing the spread at 9 in some places. I know that if the Cowboys can get Owens on the field and finally realize that the key to their success has “Barber” sewed on the back of his jersey, the Cowboys are capable of putting it on this scrappy Giants team.

Before the playoffs started, I gave the Giants zero chance of going anywhere. And after their victory over the Packers I was pretty sure that the Cowboys would be taking a trip to the Superbowl. But with the Giants toting some serious mojo, Owens dinged, Romo chasing tail, and the offensive coordinator letting Barber gather dust on the sidelines, I have to say this game is a coinflip in my opinion. Anything could happen. Either team could blow the other out, or I could easily see it being decided in the closing minutes. In any case, I don’t really see laying 9 against a Dallas team that has several potential issues. The Cowboys should win this game handily. But I just wouldn’t bet on it. Nobody is more shocked than me to be saying it, but the Giants are the best dog on the board this week. Giants +9