FANTASY FOOTBALL ARTICLES

The wide receiver is possibly one of the slowest developing positions in the NFL. There are routes to learn, blocking assignments, chemistry with the quarterback and, oh yes, all those ex-college star defensive backs just waiting to give someone their first "helicopter ride". Receivers are the main position where looking back at previous drafts can help to uncover those soon to be stars.

It is a little unfair to consider anyone a bust at this point - again, the position can take time. But so far Troy Edwards, David Terrell and Freddie Mitchell have not met expectations. Sylvester Morris has battled constant injuries while R. Jay Soward lost the perception battle that he is the biggest first round receiver flop in years. David Terrell is a close second in that running, and considering how much higher he was selected than Soward, he can be argued to be the largest miscalculation as well.

It is easy enough to dismiss receivers taken after the third round. As shown above, they have not yet made any real impact, if in fact they are still wearing a jersey instead of a McDonald's hat. The true freak in all this is clearly Donald Driver who went from a seventh round selection to being a very valuable addition to your fantasy team last season. To say that Driver is unusual is an understatement - he is literally one out of hundreds of receivers taken in the draft that did anything from the seventh round in recent history. This was aided, no doubt, by the fact that he had Brett Favre as a quarterback in a year that saw the Packers with a curious lack of any veterans. Favre is the same quarterback that made a pair of third rounders - Antonio Freeman and Robert Brooks - into fantasy darlings for at least a few seasons. Go hang your hat on Joey Jamison, Dee Miller, Anthony Lucas, David Martin or Charles Lee if you think Driver is not a unique rule breaker.

But what about those rookies this year? Remember Randy Moss! Remember Randy Moss! Who is the next Randy Moss? Here is my take - NO ONE! GET OVER HIM ALREADY!

Let's take a look to the right to see how differently Moss performed as a rookie receiver compared to all rookie receivers of the past four years that have ever excelled in subsequent years. Realize too that in any given year, about 22 receivers will turn in 1000 yard seasons, thus your #1 and #2 receivers should eclipse the 1000 yard mark unlike any rookie since Randy Moss.

You can point at Chris Chambers and Kevin Johnson as exceptions (go ahead, I can wait). However, their surprising rookie campaigns were both followed by seasons of 669 yards/0 TDs (Johnson) or 734 yards/3 TDs (Chambers). Oops.

Two things are fairly clear. First - rookie receivers are a very mixed bag and this season was considered a deep receiver draft making the gamble even harder to payoff. Secondly, receivers drafted after round three very rarely matter much except for roster filler unless it involves an ex-Mississippi quarterback with an affinity for snow.

In terms relevant to what has happened in the past four drafts, the receivers most likely to break out this season will be:

D'Wayne Bates - it could happen but he gave less signs last season that it could than what would be ideal.
Travis Taylor - The lack of an actual quarterback may hamper this, but Taylor has made improvements each season. He has progressed in yardage from 276 to 549 to 869 yards last season with six scores.
Dennis Northcutt - While he managed six scores and 705 yards last season, Northcutt is a bit small for an everydown, big role.
Todd Pinkston - Like Northcutt, Pinkston is a relatively slight guy but has been productive. Still, there is the sense he is just a bookmark waiting for someone else to step up and be the man.
Peter Warrick - Like the previous two, Warrick is not a big receiver but has always seemed underused in Cincinnati. New coach might help.
Santana Moss - With the loss of Lavernues Coles, Moss seems poised for a bigger year but the Jets have indicated that Curtis Conway and Wayne Chrebet will take the lead role. Still - that Pennington boy likes to toss the pigskin a lot and Moss comes from speedy stock.
Dez White - Having Kordell may or may not help, but having David Terrell growing surly on the sidelines does help.
Reggie Wayne - At least this year I will not get any "what about Qadry Ismail?" emails. Wayne is definitely positioned for a prototypical breakout season.
Robert Ferguson/Javon Walker - Of the two, Walker has the best pedigree and draft placement for a big year and with Favre around and Terry Glenn gone, one of them will very likely make fantasy owners happy. Best bet is Walker.
Ashley Lelie - Looking very nice for Lelie with Ed McCaffrey 35 years old and more injury prone. Jake Plummer? Stranger things have happened.
Donte Stallworth - With an impressive eight scores in a shortened rookie year, how could he not be due to breakout? Oh yeah - hamstrings. Nice risk though.
Josh Reed - Had moments of great play last season but still could be a year away. With Price gone, Reed gets to jump up his development.

There are other receivers that could be considered, but the rest of the crop of rookies last season are likely still a year away from realizing their potential, if not more. If you want the top three as suggested by the draft placement analysis and considering their situations, then Lelie, Stallworth and Wayne are the safest bets.

Before we entirely dismiss the rookies of 2003, and if you did no one would blame you, let's consider what we have. First off, any receiver taken after the second round should not be considered for a variety of factors. The risk/reward is just not justified. Charles Rogers gets to be the hottest rookie receiver this season and has a definite pedigree. He has a new coach that is looking for his next Terrell Owens. While wildly productive in college, Rogers is suspected to need time to adjust to brutal jams at the line and at best would most likely turn in inconsistent play.

Andre Johnson is highly regarded as a mature player, but the Texans have yet to prove that passing will be their forte'. Arizona will need Bryant Johnson to perform well, but need does not always, or even often, equal performance. Taylor Jacobs is already looking like a viable #3 in Washington, but what could that mean in the top end? 800 yards and six touchdowns? That is about a #3 receiver on your fantasy squad.

There are many considerations when evaluating a player and no slanted analysis can ever yield a complete picture (thank you Donald Driver). But of all the fantasy positions, draft slot and success has the highest correlation when considering receivers. It always has and always will. This look at receivers is a good foundation to apply in August when camps are in session and more becomes clear regarding player situations, opportunities, maturation and ability.

Besides, you may feel badly about some of your previous fantasy draft picks but feel good that you never gave millions of dollars to R. Jay Soward. Stay alert to the present, understand the past but remember - it is all about the future.