When I created Consistency Rankings back in 1997, it was a useful tool to view how many times a particular player reached a fantasy point threshold in games like 100 yards rushing. But it was only one of many factors to consider when evaluating a player for the current season. What consistency never indicates is how tough the defenses were that allowed those big games.
Another measure of a player's value is how well he did against defenses relative to others in his position against those very same defenses. This new measurement is called "Better Than Average" (BTA). Consistency rankings view a player from the offensive perspective - how many times did he have a big game? BTA rankings show the same players from a defensive perspective - how many times did he do better than most other players when they faced the same defense?
There are three measurements with BTA analysis and to the right you can see how it was derived using all QB performances against the Falcons last season.
Better Than Average Sample (ATL defense) |
| Wk |
Tm |
QB's against ATL - 2003 |
FF
Pts |
Rush
Yards |
Rush
TD's |
Pass
Yards |
Pass
TDs |
Top
8 |
Top
3 |
Top
1 |
| 15 |
IND |
Manning P |
35 |
|
|
290 |
5 |
|
|
|
| 16 |
TB |
Johnson B |
33 |
1 |
|
346 |
4 |
|
|
|
| 6 |
STL |
Bulger M |
32 |
4 |
1 |
352 |
2 |
|
|
|
| 7 |
NO |
Brooks A |
31 |
15 |
|
352 |
3 |
|
|
|
| 2 |
WAS |
Ramsey P |
26 |
|
|
356 |
2 |
|
|
|
| 9 |
PHI |
McNabb D |
22 |
22 |
|
312 |
1 |
|
|
|
| 5 |
MIN |
Frerotte G |
20 |
3 |
|
239 |
2 |
|
|
|
| 1 |
DAL |
Carter Q |
19 |
11 |
|
268 |
1 |
|
|
|
| 3 |
TB |
Johnson B |
17 |
-4 |
|
192 |
2 |
|
|
|
| 17 |
JAX |
Leftwich B |
16 |
33 |
|
167 |
1 |
|
|
|
| 11 |
NO |
Brooks A |
15 |
37 |
|
228 |
|
|
|
|
| 12 |
TEN |
McNair S |
14 |
9 |
|
95 |
2 |
|
|
|
| 4 |
CAR |
Delhomme J |
12 |
-3 |
|
168 |
1 |
|
|
|
| 14 |
CAR |
Delhomme J |
12 |
0 |
|
153 |
1 |
|
|
|
| 10 |
NYG |
Collins K |
10 |
|
|
202 |
|
|
|
|
1. BTA Top 8 - Shows how many times a player faced a defense last year that produced a top 8 performance allowed by that defense for that position. To the right in yellow are the Top 8 performances against the Falcons by a QB using standard performance scoring. Manning, Johnson, Bulger, Brooks, Ramsey, McNabb, Frerotte and Carter would all be credited with a Top 8 game considering only the Falcons defense. Notice that Brad Johnson just missed having two Top 8 games against the Falcons. In week 3, he had a big two touchdown game against ATL but it was only the 9th best all year.
2. BTA Top 3 - Shows how many times a player faced a defense last year that produced a top 3 performance allowed by that defense for that position. Considering only ATL, Manning, Johnson and Bulger are all credited with a Top 3 game.
3. BTA Top 1 - Shows how many times a player faced a defense last year that produced the BEST performance allowed by that defense for that position. Considering only the Atlanta defense, only Manning is credited with a Top 1 game.
These measurements are similar to big game consistency but takes directly into account the defenses that were faced all season. For example, Aaron Brooks only had 243 yards and one TD against the Cowboys (week 17) and that is not considered a big game for consistency purposes and it was the 241st best QB fantasy game last year. But only four QB's did any better against the DAL defense last year. Brook's value is lessened with only considering consistency which ignores this game but the reality was that he had a "better than average" game against a very tough secondary which should be accounted for in evaluating him.
Enough of the set-up and explanations, take a look at what really happened using the above criteria against all QB performances in 2003 considering the defenses that they faced.
| Top 8 performances allowed by defenses faced in 2003 |
Top 8 % |
# Gms |
Gms
Played |
Top 3 performances allowed by defenses faced in 2003 |
Top 3 % |
# Gms |
Gms
Played |
| STL |
Mark Bulger |
80% |
12 |
15 |
MIN |
Daunte Culpepper |
50% |
7 |
14 |
| MIN |
Daunte Culpepper |
79% |
11 |
14 |
IND |
Peyton Manning |
44% |
7 |
16 |
| TEN |
Steve McNair |
71% |
10 |
14 |
KC |
Trent Green |
38% |
6 |
16 |
| NE |
Tom Brady |
69% |
11 |
16 |
SF |
Jeff Garcia |
38% |
5 |
13 |
| IND |
Peyton Manning |
69% |
11 |
16 |
NE |
Tom Brady |
31% |
5 |
16 |
| SF |
Jeff Garcia |
69% |
9 |
13 |
TB |
Brad Johnson |
31% |
5 |
16 |
| CIN |
Jon Kitna |
63% |
10 |
16 |
ATL |
Doug Johnson |
30% |
3 |
10 |
| ATL |
Michael Vick |
60% |
3 |
5 |
TEN |
Steve McNair |
29% |
4 |
14 |
| SD |
Doug Flutie |
57% |
4 |
7 |
SD |
Doug Flutie |
29% |
2 |
7 |
| NO |
Aaron Brooks |
56% |
9 |
16 |
CIN |
Jon Kitna |
25% |
4 |
16 |
| KC |
Trent Green |
56% |
9 |
16 |
SEA |
Matt Hasselbeck |
25% |
4 |
16 |
| SEA |
Matt Hasselbeck |
56% |
9 |
16 |
NYG |
Kerry Collins |
23% |
3 |
13 |
| TB |
Brad Johnson |
56% |
9 |
16 |
STL |
Mark Bulger |
20% |
3 |
15 |
| DEN |
Jake Plummer |
55% |
6 |
11 |
ATL |
Michael Vick |
20% |
1 |
5 |
| WAS |
Patrick Ramsey |
55% |
6 |
11 |
NYJ |
Chad Pennington |
20% |
2 |
10 |
| MIA |
Jay Fiedler |
50% |
6 |
12 |
PHI |
Donovan McNabb |
19% |
3 |
16 |
| PIT |
Tommy Maddox |
50% |
8 |
16 |
GB |
Brett Favre |
19% |
3 |
16 |
| PHI |
Donovan McNabb |
50% |
8 |
16 |
DEN |
Jake Plummer |
18% |
2 |
11 |
| NYJ |
Chad Pennington |
50% |
5 |
10 |
WAS |
Patrick Ramsey |
18% |
2 |
11 |
| JAX |
Byron Leftwich |
47% |
7 |
15 |
SD |
Drew Brees |
18% |
2 |
11 |
| NYG |
Kerry Collins |
46% |
6 |
13 |
MIA |
Jay Fiedler |
17% |
2 |
12 |
| SD |
Drew Brees |
45% |
5 |
11 |
ARI |
Jeff Blake |
15% |
2 |
13 |
| DAL |
Quincy Carter |
44% |
7 |
16 |
OAK |
Rich Gannon |
14% |
1 |
7 |
| GB |
Brett Favre |
44% |
7 |
16 |
NYJ |
Vinnie Testaverde |
14% |
1 |
7 |
| OAK |
Rich Gannon |
43% |
3 |
7 |
BUF |
Drew Bledsoe |
13% |
2 |
16 |
| ARI |
Josh McCown |
43% |
3 |
7 |
CAR |
Jake Delhomme |
13% |
2 |
16 |
| NYJ |
Vinnie Testaverde |
43% |
3 |
7 |
CLE |
Tim Couch |
10% |
1 |
10 |
| HOU |
David Carr |
42% |
5 |
12 |
HOU |
David Carr |
8% |
1 |
12 |
| ATL |
Doug Johnson |
40% |
4 |
10 |
NO |
Aaron Brooks |
6% |
1 |
16 |
| ARI |
Jeff Blake |
38% |
5 |
13 |
PIT |
Tommy Maddox |
6% |
1 |
16 |
| BUF |
Drew Bledsoe |
38% |
6 |
16 |
DAL |
Quincy Carter |
6% |
1 |
16 |
| CAR |
Jake Delhomme |
38% |
6 |
16 |
DET |
Joey Harrington |
6% |
1 |
16 |
| DET |
Joey Harrington |
31% |
5 |
16 |
JAX |
Byron Leftwich |
0% |
0 |
15 |
| CLE |
Tim Couch |
30% |
3 |
10 |
ARI |
Josh McCown |
0% |
0 |
7 |
Some of the notable facts that came from this was that Marc Bulger did very well on a weekly basis against the defenses he faced - he led all QB with 12 games that were in the Top 8 allowed by opposing defenses. However, he only had 3 games that were in the top three proving the STL offense was potent, but he rarely had truly big games. Daunte Culpepper was highly ranked in Top 8 with the second best percentage (79%) but he was astounding by turning in half of the games he played as in the top three allowed by the defense in 2003.
Jeff Garcia may have worn out his welcome in San Francisco, but he still ranked highly with 69% of his games falling in the top 8 allowed by opponents. His high rating comes primarily from his rushing yardage and scores.
While Brett Favre had 10 games last year which were either 300 yards or two touchdowns, considering the defenses he was facing brought him down to only 7 games that were in the Top 8 and only 3 times did he turn in a Top 3 game. He had the easier schedule, obviously.
The final BTA review is for QB's that scored the highest fantasy points allowed by defenses last year.
| The best performance allowed by defenses faced in 2003 |
Top 1 % |
Top 1 Gms |
Gms
Played |
| IND |
Peyton Manning |
25% |
4 |
16 |
| SF |
Jeff Garcia |
23% |
3 |
13 |
| MIN |
Daunte Culpepper |
21% |
3 |
14 |
| ATL |
Michael Vick |
20% |
1 |
5 |
| KC |
Trent Green |
19% |
3 |
16 |
| TEN |
Steve McNair |
14% |
2 |
14 |
| SD |
Doug Flutie |
14% |
1 |
7 |
| DEN |
Jake Plummer |
9% |
1 |
11 |
| SD |
Drew Brees |
9% |
1 |
11 |
| MIA |
Jay Fiedler |
8% |
1 |
12 |
| ARI |
Jeff Blake |
8% |
1 |
13 |
| NE |
Tom Brady |
6% |
1 |
16 |
| CIN |
Jon Kitna |
6% |
1 |
16 |
| NO |
Aaron Brooks |
6% |
1 |
16 |
| SEA |
Matt Hasselbeck |
6% |
1 |
16 |
| PHI |
Donovan McNabb |
6% |
1 |
16 |
| DAL |
Quincy Carter |
6% |
1 |
16 |
| GB |
Brett Favre |
6% |
1 |
16 |
| CAR |
Jake Delhomme |
6% |
1 |
16 |
Peyton Manning led all QB's in stomping opposing defenses with four games that were the most allowed by that defense all season. Manning was already solid with 69% of his games producing top 8 performances and one in every four of his games proved to be the best possible against his opponent.
Trent Green's relative inconsistency shows up here as well. He only had 56% of his games end up as Top 8, but three times he scored the most fantasy points allowed by a defense last year. Green sprinkled some very big weekends among some very average ones.
Almost any player can have the freak high game, so those with more than one game that was the best are the only ones significant. That leaves Manning, Garcia (go figure), Culpepper, VIck, Green and McNair as the top big point QB's.
Again, this is only one tool to use in evaluating a quarterback's potential but should be considered since it clearly shows how well quarterbacks did against the schedule they faced. If you are targeting a specific quarterback this season, it is worthwhile to see how he stacked up against defenses last season and now... you can. |