As with many types of analysis, looking into the past performances of running backs yields a more accurate picture than any other position. Teams will always run if they can and if they are in the lead. Defenses are created to stop the run first in almost all cases and force the other teams to throw since a sack, incompletion or interception can occur.
Using the same methodology as found in the quarterback analysis, last season's results by defenses in what they allowed positions were considered. Remember - Consistency rankings view a player from the offensive perspective - how many times did he have a big game? BTA rankings show the same players from a defensive perspective - how many times did he do better than most other players when they faced the same defense?
There are three measurements with BTA analysis and to the right you can see how it was derived using all RB performances against the Raiders last season.
Better Than Average Sample (OAK defense) |
| Wk |
Tm |
QB's against OAK - 2003 |
FF
Pts |
Rush
Yards |
Rush
TD's |
RCV
Yards |
RCV
TDs |
Top
8 |
Top
3 |
Top
1 |
| 17 |
SD |
Tomlinson L |
38 |
243 |
2 |
17 |
|
|
|
|
| 13 |
DEN |
Portis C |
30 |
170 |
2 |
7 |
|
|
|
|
| 4 |
SD |
Tomlinson L |
27 |
187 |
1 |
24 |
|
|
|
|
| 12 |
KC |
Holmes P |
25 |
91 |
1 |
100 |
|
|
|
|
| 7 |
KC |
Holmes P |
23 |
123 |
1 |
50 |
|
|
|
|
| 6 |
CLE |
Green W |
20 |
145 |
1 |
-2 |
|
|
|
|
| 16 |
GB |
Green A |
19 |
127 |
1 |
2 |
|
|
|
|
| 14 |
PIT |
Bettis J |
19 |
106 |
1 |
19 |
|
|
|
|
| 2 |
CIN |
Dillon C |
15 |
84 |
1 |
6 |
|
|
|
|
| 3 |
DEN |
Anderson M |
14 |
70 |
1 |
5 |
|
|
|
|
| 10 |
NYJ |
Jordan L |
13 |
69 |
1 |
3 |
|
|
|
|
| 15 |
BAL |
Lewis J |
13 |
125 |
|
0 |
|
|
|
|
| 5 |
CHI |
Thomas A |
12 |
123 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 11 |
MIN |
Williams M |
12 |
39 |
|
80 |
|
|
|
|
| 9 |
DET |
Schlesinger C |
12 |
3 |
|
53 |
1 |
|
|
|
| 12 |
KC |
Blaylock D |
11 |
40 |
1 |
13 |
|
|
|
|
| Top performances only |
1. BTA Top 8 - Shows how many times an RB faced a defense last year that produced a top 8 performance allowed by that defense for that position. To the right in yellow are the Top 8 performances against the Raiders by a RB using standard performance scoring. Tomlinson (2), Portis, Holmes (2), W. Green, A. Green and Bettis would all be credited with a Top 8 game considering only the Raiders defense. Notice that Jamal Lewis and Anthony Thomas had big games vs. OAK but neither were close to being the upper half.
2. BTA Top 3 - Shows how many times a player faced a defense last year that produced a top 3 performance allowed by that defense for that position. Considering only OAK, Tomlinson (2) and Portis are credited with a Top 3 game.
3. BTA Top 1 - Shows how many times an RB faced a defense last year that produced the BEST performance allowed by that defense for that position. Considering only the Oakland defense, only Tomlinson is credited with a Top 1 game. Realize as well that the best possible score here would be 13 games since each RB would face three teams twice and only one game against a team could be best.
Running backs are always interesting and the upper-tier players are the most consistent. Take a look at what consistency looks like from the defense's perspective using the above criteria against all RB performances in 2003 considering the defenses that they faced.
| Top 8 performances allowed by defenses faced in 2003 |
Top 8 % |
Top 8 Gms |
Gms
Played |
Top 3 performances allowed by defenses faced in 2003 |
Top 3 % |
Top 3 Gms |
Gms
Played |
| GB |
Ahman Green |
88% |
14 |
16 |
KC |
Priest Holmes |
56% |
9 |
16 |
| KC |
Priest Holmes |
88% |
14 |
16 |
SD |
Ladainian Tomlinson |
50% |
8 |
16 |
| BAL |
Jamal Lewis |
75% |
12 |
16 |
GB |
Ahman Green |
44% |
7 |
16 |
| NO |
Deuce McAllister |
75% |
12 |
16 |
IND |
Edgerrin James |
38% |
5 |
13 |
| SD |
Ladainian Tomlinson |
75% |
12 |
16 |
BAL |
Jamal Lewis |
38% |
6 |
16 |
| MIA |
Ricky Williams |
75% |
12 |
16 |
MIA |
Ricky Williams |
38% |
6 |
16 |
| DEN |
Clinton Portis |
69% |
9 |
13 |
BUF |
Travis Henry |
33% |
5 |
15 |
| STL |
Marshall Faulk |
64% |
7 |
11 |
SEA |
Shaun Alexander |
31% |
5 |
16 |
| IND |
Edgerrin James |
62% |
8 |
13 |
DEN |
Clinton Portis |
31% |
4 |
13 |
| SEA |
Shaun Alexander |
56% |
9 |
16 |
STL |
Marshall Faulk |
27% |
3 |
11 |
| CAR |
Stephen Davis |
50% |
7 |
14 |
NO |
Deuce McAllister |
25% |
4 |
16 |
| ATL |
T.J. Duckett |
50% |
8 |
16 |
CIN |
Rudi Johnson |
23% |
3 |
13 |
| NYJ |
Curtis Martin |
50% |
8 |
16 |
HOU |
Domanick Davis |
21% |
3 |
14 |
| PHI |
Brian Westbrook |
47% |
7 |
15 |
ATL |
Warrick Dunn |
18% |
2 |
11 |
| CIN |
Rudi Johnson |
46% |
6 |
13 |
CAR |
Stephen Davis |
14% |
2 |
14 |
| JAX |
Fred Taylor |
44% |
7 |
16 |
PHI |
Brian Westbrook |
13% |
2 |
15 |
| BUF |
Travis Henry |
40% |
6 |
15 |
ATL |
T.J. Duckett |
13% |
2 |
16 |
| CHI |
Anthony Thomas |
38% |
5 |
13 |
JAX |
Fred Taylor |
13% |
2 |
16 |
| ATL |
Warrick Dunn |
36% |
4 |
11 |
MIN |
Moe Williams |
13% |
2 |
16 |
| HOU |
Domanick Davis |
36% |
5 |
14 |
SF |
Kevan Barlow |
13% |
2 |
16 |
| NYG |
Tiki Barber |
31% |
5 |
16 |
PHI |
Duce Staley |
13% |
2 |
16 |
| TEN |
Eddie George |
31% |
5 |
16 |
SF |
Garrison Hearst |
8% |
1 |
12 |
| DAL |
Troy Hambrick |
31% |
5 |
16 |
NYJ |
Curtis Martin |
6% |
1 |
16 |
| MIN |
Moe Williams |
31% |
5 |
16 |
TEN |
Eddie George |
6% |
1 |
16 |
| SF |
Kevan Barlow |
25% |
4 |
16 |
DAL |
Troy Hambrick |
6% |
1 |
16 |
| SF |
Garrison Hearst |
25% |
3 |
12 |
CHI |
Anthony Thomas |
0% |
0 |
13 |
| TB |
Michael Pittman |
25% |
4 |
16 |
NYG |
Tiki Barber |
0% |
0 |
16 |
| CAR |
De'Shaun Foster |
21% |
3 |
14 |
TB |
Michael Pittman |
0% |
0 |
16 |
| PIT |
Jerome Bettis |
19% |
3 |
16 |
CAR |
De'Shaun Foster |
0% |
0 |
14 |
| PHI |
Duce Staley |
19% |
3 |
16 |
PIT |
Jerome Bettis |
0% |
0 |
16 |
Some of the notable facts that came from this was that Ahman Green and Priest Holmes were tops and Tomlinson surprisingly was just short of that top echelon though he started slowly last year. What affects the percentages a bit more in this position were the large number of RB's that did not play a full 16 game season. Travis Henry looked more like a feast of famine RB - he only managed six games in the top 8 games allowed by the defenses he faced but five of them were Top 3 games. McAllister had twelve of sixteen games in the Top 8 but only four of those were Top 3 games.
Though there were 32 defenses, only 13 running backs turned in the best performances against them in 2003 and perhaps the biggest surprise is T.J. Duckett when he took over for the injured Warrick Dunn. Surprising too was that Domanick Davis had some great games last year, but only five of his fourteen were even in the Top 8 of opposing defenses.
There were several situations which caused lesser numbers for some runners, like the Hearst/Barlow and Davis/Foster sharing scenarios last year.
The final BTA review is for RB's that scored the highest fantasy points allowed by a defense last year.
| Top 1 performances allowed by defenses faced in 2003 |
Top 1% |
Top 1 Gms |
Gms
Played |
| SD |
Ladainian Tomlinson |
31% |
5 |
16 |
| GB |
Ahman Green |
19% |
3 |
16 |
| KC |
Priest Holmes |
19% |
3 |
16 |
| NO |
Deuce McAllister |
19% |
3 |
16 |
| IND |
Edgerrin James |
15% |
2 |
13 |
| CIN |
Rudi Johnson |
15% |
2 |
13 |
| PHI |
Brian Westbrook |
13% |
2 |
15 |
| BUF |
Travis Henry |
13% |
2 |
15 |
| BAL |
Jamal Lewis |
13% |
2 |
16 |
| SF |
Garrison Hearst |
8% |
1 |
12 |
| DEN |
Clinton Portis |
8% |
1 |
13 |
| CAR |
Stephen Davis |
7% |
1 |
14 |
| JAX |
Fred Taylor |
6% |
1 |
16 |
| TEN |
Eddie George |
6% |
1 |
16 |
| SF |
Kevan Barlow |
6% |
1 |
16 |
Tomlinson's value really shines here, easily beating out all others with turning in five performances that proved to be the best all year against five different defenses.
The most notable players that do not appear in this measurement are Ricky "up in smoke" Williams, Marshall Faulk and Shaun Alexander. None of the three ever managed to turn in the best effort allowed by a defense all season.
This also shows the impact of a running back that catches the ball as the four best in this category all are good if not prolific receivers.
This analysis provides a very interesting look into how well a running back truly was against the defenses that he faced. It also provides even better reasons why Tomlinson and Holmes are always the first two picks in fantasy drafts this season. In that next tier of Ahman Green, McAllister, Portis, Lewis and Alexander that is most common in drafts this summer, Green makes a solid case for being #3 with this analysis and Portis and Alexander appear to be a bit less impressive considering the defenses that they faced in 2003.
Next up - wide receivers! |