Wrapping up this analysis on tight ends has the chance to be misleading in some cases. When determining the top eight performances against each defense, the reality is that for many it meant only 30 or 40 yards receiving and no scores would still fall into the Top 8 in some cases. Tight ends as a position have great variability as to how they are used by each offense. Some (KC, BAL, NYG, NO) will use them rather extensively while others (PIT, WAS, JAX, CAR) rarely use them.
To complete the set of BTA reviews, review the following but keep in mind what you are truly considering.
There are three measurements with BTA analysis and to the right you can see an example of how it was derived considering all TE performances against the Bills last season.
Better Than Average Sample (BUF defense) |
| Wk |
Tm |
QB's against OAK - 2003 |
FF
Pts |
RCV
Yards |
RCV
TD's |
Rush
Yards |
Rush
TDs |
Top
8 |
Top
3 |
Top
1 |
| 6 |
NYJ |
Becht A |
16.1 |
41 |
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
| 8 |
KC |
Gonzalez T |
12.5 |
65 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
| 15 |
TEN |
Kinney E |
10.4 |
44 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
|
|
|
| 2 |
JAX |
Wrighster G |
8.1 |
21 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
| 10 |
DAL |
Campbell D |
6.7 |
7 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
| 17 |
NE |
Graham D |
6.1 |
1 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
| 3 |
MIA |
McMichael R |
5.7 |
57 |
0 |
|
|
|
|
|
| 2 |
JAX |
Brady K |
4.2 |
42 |
0 |
|
|
|
|
|
| 5 |
CIN |
Stewart T |
3.5 |
35 |
0 |
|
|
|
|
|
| 10 |
DAL |
Witten J |
2.4 |
24 |
0 |
|
|
|
|
|
| 13 |
NYG |
Rivers M |
2.2 |
22 |
0 |
|
|
|
|
|
1. BTA Top 8 - Shows how many times a TE faced a defense last year and produced a top 8 performance allowed by that defense considering all the TE's they faced in 2003. To the right in yellow are the Top 8 performances against the Bills by a WR using standard performance scoring. Becht, Gonzalez, Kinney, Wrighster, Campbell, Graham, McMichael and Brady would be credited with a Top 8 game.
2. BTA Top 3 - Shows how many times a player faced a defense last year and produced a top 3 performance allowed by that defense for that position. Considering only BUF, only Gonzalez, Becht and Kinney are credited with a Top 3 game.
3. BTA Top 1 - Shows how many times an RB faced a defense last year that produced the BEST performance allowed by that defense for that position. Considering only the Bills' defense, only Becht is credited with a Top 1 game. Realize as well that the best possible score here would be 13 games since each TE would face three teams twice and only one game against a team could be best.
Taking that methodology and applying it to the most inconsistent of the highest scoring positions yields interesting results.
| Top 8 performances allowed by defenses faced in 2003 |
Top 8% |
Top 8 Gms |
Gms
Played |
Top 3 performances allowed by defenses faced in 2003 |
Top 3% |
Top 3 Gms |
Gms
Played |
| NYG |
Jeremy Shockey |
89% |
8 |
9 |
NYG |
Jeremy Shockey |
56% |
5 |
9 |
| KC |
Tony Gonzalez |
81% |
13 |
16 |
KC |
Tony Gonzalez |
50% |
8 |
16 |
| DEN |
Shannon Sharpe |
80% |
12 |
15 |
DEN |
Shannon Sharpe |
33% |
5 |
15 |
| NO |
Ernie Conwell |
60% |
6 |
10 |
NO |
Boo Williams |
33% |
5 |
15 |
| BAL |
Todd Heap |
56% |
9 |
16 |
NE |
Daniel Graham |
31% |
4 |
13 |
| NE |
Daniel Graham |
54% |
7 |
13 |
IND |
Marcus Pollard |
31% |
4 |
13 |
| IND |
Marcus Pollard |
54% |
7 |
13 |
SD |
Antonia Gates |
30% |
3 |
10 |
| ATL |
Alge Crumpler |
50% |
8 |
16 |
ATL |
Alge Crumpler |
25% |
4 |
16 |
| ARI |
Freddie Jones |
50% |
8 |
16 |
MIA |
Randy McMichael |
25% |
4 |
16 |
| MIA |
Randy McMichael |
50% |
8 |
16 |
MIN |
Jim Kleinsasser |
25% |
4 |
16 |
| DET |
Mikhael Ricks |
47% |
7 |
15 |
CIN |
Matt Schobel |
25% |
3 |
12 |
| NO |
Boo Williams |
47% |
7 |
15 |
DET |
Mikhael Ricks |
20% |
3 |
15 |
| DAL |
Jason Witten |
47% |
7 |
15 |
IND |
Dallas Clark |
20% |
2 |
10 |
| SEA |
Itula Mili |
44% |
7 |
16 |
SEA |
Itula Mili |
19% |
3 |
16 |
| PHI |
L.J. Smith |
43% |
6 |
14 |
NYJ |
Anthony Becht |
19% |
3 |
16 |
| IND |
Dallas Clark |
40% |
4 |
10 |
TEN |
Erron Kinney |
19% |
3 |
16 |
| SD |
Antonia Gates |
40% |
4 |
10 |
PHI |
L.J. Smith |
14% |
2 |
14 |
| MIN |
Jim Kleinsasser |
38% |
6 |
16 |
GB |
Bubba Franks |
14% |
2 |
14 |
| SF |
Jed Weaver |
38% |
6 |
16 |
BAL |
Todd Heap |
13% |
2 |
16 |
| GB |
Bubba Franks |
36% |
5 |
14 |
ARI |
Freddie Jones |
13% |
2 |
16 |
| PHI |
Chad Lewis |
36% |
5 |
14 |
SF |
Jed Weaver |
13% |
2 |
16 |
| BUF |
Mark Campbell |
33% |
5 |
15 |
HOU |
Billy Miller |
13% |
2 |
16 |
| CHI |
Desmond Clark |
33% |
5 |
15 |
NO |
Ernie Conwell |
10% |
1 |
10 |
| NYJ |
Anthony Becht |
31% |
5 |
16 |
TB |
Ken Dilger |
8% |
1 |
13 |
| TEN |
Erron Kinney |
31% |
5 |
16 |
BAL |
Terry Jones |
8% |
1 |
13 |
| HOU |
Billy Miller |
25% |
4 |
16 |
DAL |
Jason Witten |
7% |
1 |
15 |
| CIN |
Matt Schobel |
25% |
3 |
12 |
BUF |
Mark Campbell |
7% |
1 |
15 |
| GB |
Wesley Walls |
25% |
3 |
12 |
NE |
Christian Fauria |
7% |
1 |
15 |
| TB |
Ken Dilger |
23% |
3 |
13 |
JAX |
Kyle Brady |
6% |
1 |
16 |
| BAL |
Terry Jones |
23% |
3 |
13 |
PHI |
Chad Lewis |
0% |
0 |
14 |
| NE |
Christian Fauria |
20% |
3 |
15 |
CHI |
Desmond Clark |
0% |
0 |
15 |
| STL |
Brandon Manumaleuna |
20% |
3 |
15 |
GB |
Wesley Walls |
0% |
0 |
12 |
| JAX |
Kyle Brady |
19% |
3 |
16 |
STL |
Brandon Manumaleuna |
0% |
0 |
15 |
The role of Jeremy Shockey in the Giant's offense cannot be understated. In the nine games he played last year there was only once that he failed to record a Top 8 game against the opposing defense. That's heavy use. Gonzalez naturally also tops out well and the NFL will certainly miss Shannon Sharpe though no one as much as the Denver Broncos offense. Surprisingly Heap did not supply quite as many Top 8 games as would be assumed and Daniel Graham's 54% rate was high and yet his lower numbers reflect the tougher defenses that populate his division.
Very notable in this review was that Ernie Conwell placed Top 8 six times and Boo Williams did it seven times. They are on the same team. Now Williams has surpassed Conwell as the starter and plays for an offense that placed a TE in the Top 8 against opposing defenses 13 times last season.
Given the huge volume of tight ends used against defenses during the season, a better measurement is the Top 3. In a position that a single touchdown greatly bumps normal numbers for a tight end, Top 8 or even the occasional Top 3 game is not necessarily something you can hang your hat on. In the Top 3, we see many of the same players at the top and Boo Williams rises with his higher than average number of very good tight end games. A Top 3 game almost always includes a touchdown or decent yardage.
Top 1 performances by Tight Ends were arrayed almost at one for each with the exception of five tight ends.
| Top 1 performances allowed by defenses faced in 2003 |
Top 1% |
Top 1 Gms |
Gms
Played |
| KC |
Tony Gonzalez |
25% |
4 |
16 |
| DEN |
Shannon Sharpe |
13% |
2 |
15 |
| NO |
Boo Williams |
13% |
2 |
15 |
| NYJ |
Anthony Becht |
13% |
2 |
16 |
| HOU |
Billy Miller |
13% |
2 |
16 |
| NYG |
Jeremy Shockey |
11% |
1 |
9 |
| IND |
Dallas Clark |
10% |
1 |
10 |
| SD |
Antonia Gates |
10% |
1 |
10 |
| NE |
Daniel Graham |
8% |
1 |
13 |
| IND |
Marcus Pollard |
8% |
1 |
13 |
| TB |
Ken Dilger |
8% |
1 |
13 |
| DET |
Mikhael Ricks |
7% |
1 |
15 |
| BUF |
Mark Campbell |
7% |
1 |
15 |
| BAL |
Todd Heap |
6% |
1 |
16 |
| ATL |
Alge Crumpler |
6% |
1 |
16 |
| MIA |
Randy McMichael |
6% |
1 |
16 |
| SEA |
Itula Mili |
6% |
1 |
16 |
| MIN |
Jim Kleinsasser |
6% |
1 |
16 |
| SF |
Jed Weaver |
6% |
1 |
16 |
Naturally, Gonzalez dominated here with 4 games that were the most that defense gave up all season but beyond him only Shannon Sharpe, Boo Williams, Anthony Becht and Billy Miller managed so much as two.
Tight end is a position where consistency reports likely mean very much and BTA analysis means less given the sparse production by so many and the inconsistency of scoring from game to game.
The lack of players with multiple numbers of Top 1 games reflects how often one tight end has the one big game (think Todd Yoder) and yet rarely does anything else the rest of the season. With Tight End BTA, only pay attention to the top players and even then, understand what you are seeing. |