2007 Outlook

This will be one of the more interesting players to watch this year. Vick is learning his fourth new offense since joining the league in 2001. Gone is the west coast scheme and now HC Bobby Petrino brings in what should be a power rushing game that in college accounted for obscene scores. Petrino always had success rushing the ball and typically ran 55% of the time – roughly the same as the Falcons last year. But instead of Brian Brohm with Louisville completing 65% of his passes with a 3:1 ratio of TD to interceptions, Vick has never been much better than 55% or 1:1. Over half the Louisville games featured 300+ passing yards last year. Vick never had any. This will be interesting to be sure.

Petrino has set immediately to creating a bigger offensive line and setting up a better power running scheme which could benefit Vick in both pass protection and holding the defense when Vick takes off. While Vick will always be a unique case, the new offense should be better suited for him if only because the old west coast scheme was such a bad fit. Prior to Jim Mora, Vick had his best season with Dan Reeves when he threw for 2936 yards and 16 touchdowns against only 8 interceptions. Problem too is that Vick gets hurt often. Prior to the west coast offense, Vick only started 19 games in two years as the starter and has missed no more than one game for the last three years. Petrino has said that he will not “coddle" Vick who must either rise to the challenge or be replaced. That introduces some risk for Vick from both injury and Joey Harrington on the sideline. Vick is who he is – a superb runner who for six NFL seasons has proven to be a below-average passer. .

Vick comes off a record setting season with 1039 rushing yards but he only scored twice and under Mora, he only averaged about four per season. Way back in 2002 before Mora showed up, Vick had a career high eight rushing scores. The new Falcons won’t stop Vick from running, but he’ll be expected to step up in the passing game – something he has never really done.

Vick's legal situation with dog fighting remains to be resolved but will have an obvious bearing on his season if he is found guilty in any way. Drafting Vick this year could truly be boom or bust and the risk is too high for the prudent owner to take him. Vick's learning a new offense anyway and his fit in it, like all the others, remains questionable at best.

07-27-20 Update: Dropping Vick even further and realistically, the only reason to take Vick in a draft this year is if you play in a keeper league and you have a final roster spot open just in case. If you must own Vick - pay the minimum possible because this could just give bad mojo to the rest of your roster.

07-18-07 Update: Vick was indicted by federal authorities in the dog fighting case and now should not be touched because of his risk. He may still play this year but he could end up suspended as well. Until more is known, there's far too much risk involved and no upside here.

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