2007 Outlook

Holt comes off yet another good season with 93 catches for 1188 yards and 10 scores. Those marks all were top eight or better in the NFL last year and Holt’s been golden for the last seven years but perhaps all is not as well as total numbers suggest. Holt comes off his lowest yardage since his rookie year in 1999 and his yards per catch (12.8) was the lowest of his NFL career. He started the year out red hot and by week six, he already had 526 yards and seven touchdowns. But in the final ten games of 2006 – when the new offense was starting to take shape and Jackson was running well – Holt only averaged 66 yards per week and scored in only two of those ten games. Not exactly what the first six weeks suggested would happen.

He topped 90 yards only once in those final ten games despite keeping up with the number of receptions. Even Isaac Bruce averaged 71 yards a game for the last ten weeks. Make no doubt – Holt is one of the most talented wideouts in the NFL and in his prime but the change in offensive scheme has not proven to benefit Holt’s production. Two main culprits exist here – the receptions by Jackson cost Holt some yardage and more importantly, the Rams now use more traditional formations instead of the four and five receiver sets. That means on most plays Holt and Bruce are alone in patterns and that prompts the secondary to devote extra attention to Holt. He did have a knee injury sustained in week 13 but that was his only 100 yard game in that last ten stretch. And he had 75 yards and two scores the following week against the Bears. He still has a solid reception total, but they are shorter catches than ever before. Add in Drew Bennett and Randy McMichael into the mix and Holt improving his numbers is harder to expect.

Holt still deserves to be a top wideout draft pick but he may carry more risk this year from the increased options for Bulger with Jackson’s receiving and the addition of Drew Bennett and Randy McMichael. There are only so many balls to throw in St. Louis. While obviously a solid pick, this season will answer if the change in personnel, team dynamics and scheme are really to blame for Holt’s marginal downturn in 2006.

08-27-07 Update: Holt falls a few spots with the news that his knee is bothering him from back when he had surgery in January. The joint has swollen and prevented Holt from playing in a preseason game. The Rams are taking it easy with Holt who may still not be 100% by the start of the season. Holt already saw a major decline in his production last year when the offense was finally installed and running to form.

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