2007 Outlook

This is simply the most interesting situation of all NFL wide receivers. And the most productive... maybe. The 30-year old Moss had not turned in more than 1005 yards in any of the last three seasons though he did have 13 touchdowns in 2004 during his final year in Minnesota. His time in Oakland produced two injury shortened years and perhaps one of the biggest "malcontent" performances of recent memory. Moss only had 42 catches for 553 yards and three scores last year in the offensive black hole known as the Oakland Raiders of 2006. There are now two parts of the equation to consider what Moss may do this year with Tom Brady throwing him passes.

First - has Moss' skills diminished as reported by sour grape ex-coaches? Hard to say since Moss has been unable to remain healthy all season since 2003. When healthy in 2004, Moss was still very productive with scores in all but two games when he was healthy. His first season In Oakland, his initial four games posted 117 yards per game on average with five catches in each and two scores. But then he was injured and plodded the rest of the year as mostly a decoy. In 2006, the well-documented fall-out with the new coaching staff left Moss little used if for no other reason than the quarterbacks could not even pass the ball before getting crushed. That season should be no measuring stick either. Moss is only 30 years old and has been wildly productive when healthy (which isn't always) and when on a team with a good offense (which wasn't last year).

Secondly, Moss now plays for the Patriots and their passing game that never focuses much on one receiver by design. Then again, there have been few receivers there that rank highly. For the last five seasons, the Patriots have had a different lead receiver in every year. But under Brady, there have been individual performances in the past with fantasy value. Troy Brown turned in 1199 and 890 yards in his first two seasons with Brady. Branch then had 803 in 2003 and then 998 yards in 2005. Those first two seasons with Brady had Troy Brown catching 101 and 97 passes. But also relevant, the Patriots have Donte Stallworth and Wes Welker to add to the same mix that played last season. There are only so many balls to distribute in New England and Brown's big years were when there were almost no other decent receivers. This will be a fascinating year for Moss and one that could define his career. Play back to form and head into the playoffs or tail off as he has and get injured once again. Regardless, Moss brings a very nice target in the endzone this year even if his receptions and yards wane.

07-27-07 Update: Moss tumbles a couple of spots because he hasn't been able to practice with Brady due to a hamstring issue. The Pats still contend that Moss will be ready for the start of the season but there is just more risk with Moss not practicing with his new team and new quarterback while nursing yet another hamstring strain. Big upside here but equally troubling risk.

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