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Other Positions:  Quarterback  |  Running Back  |  Wide Receiver

Every summer there is conventional wisdom that is expressed in the average draft positions (ADP) that you see on the internet and in magazines. They are merely the collections of numerous drafts to see where, on average, players are taken. Certainly every draft has at least the team owners to make them unique and there are plenty of scoring systems out there as well. You cannot take anything too finite from the results of averaging but comparing that to what actually happened last year using a standard fantasy scoring system gives an interesting view. It shows how well, on average, we all drafted against what happened to those players.

Just to see if there is anything in past history to help us not repeat a bad season, I've taken the liberty of assembling the Average Draft Positions from the last three years for quarterbacks, running backs and wide receivers and compared each to what happened that season. For ease of viewing, I have highlighted in green or red which players were respectively very good or very bad draft picks.

What Can We Learn?

Last year was a bloodbath for those early running back picks with four of the first seven major disappointments. In the first 17 ADP picks, only Chris Johnson was a true value pick and as is so usual almost every player taken did not quite meet with the expected results considering where they were taken. The scariest part here is that running backs should be your most certain pick and the one that should deliver the most consistent numbers for your team. But - every year there are always several in the top 15 or so backs taken that are outright busts. May be from injury, could be due to just failing to repeat a previous good year. But always - three or four of those picks are going to outright suck.

Let's break down some of the individuals to see why it was that they ended up as overvalued.

2009

Matt Forte - Not a flop but his role as a receiver was not duplicated and instead he was left with more poor rushing totals like he already had the previous season.

Michael Turner, Steve Slaton, Brian Westbrook, Brandon Jacobs Clinton Portis and Ronnie Brown - Injured

LaDainian Tomlinson - Arguable what the problem was. He says they just did not rely on him as before (true). But he also had a poor "yards after touch" and yards per carry. Probably a combination of his age and the team turning to the pass more.

In most seasons, those backs which flop do so because of injury. While it may seem reasonable to shy away from older players like Westbrook, Tomlinson and the like, that is not too reliable. The 32-year old Thomas Jones had a top ten season last year. There is almost always one 30-year old runner who has a big year.

What is consistently happening each year is that those picks made around tenth to say 20th or so contains a lot of flops. These are the runners who (besides injury) fall back because they just do not meet a big previous season or they are the older players that have long been relied on who are just not meeting expectations this late into their career. They are usually veterans with a comfortable name to call in the second round. And often they just do not get it done. Conversely, if you had to pick out a grouping most likely to turn in a season far beyond expectations, that usually comes out of the 20th to 30th ranks. Figure these are either the younger players with less track record or the veterans who seem much less attractive due to some situation.

Consider last year

Pierre Thomas - great pick and that was with him injured as well. He had a bigger role in those games he was healthy.

Joseph Addai and Thomas Jones - Hot new rookies scared off drafters but Donald Brown and Shonn Greene did almost nothing during the regular season.

Ray RIce - Same situation as Chris Johnson and Rice took over his team as well. Throw Rashard Mendenhall and Jamaal Charles in the same bucket.

Again - there is no hard and fast truism here that applies to all players. But there is usable information to consider. The biggest question to ask yourself in this age of committee backfields is how likely is it that the youngster displaces the veteran? Seems like conventional wisdom had a lot of those wrong last year. Second year backs have been making a great showing but that could be as much about a great draft class in 2008 than anything else.

The large number of running back disappointments that end up being taken in the second or third round makes grabbing a sure thing quarterback or wide receiver even more enticing. And you cannot do much to predict injuries other than avoiding older players and assuming the risk that you will miss out on the one or two aging gems.

More than anything - just be aware of the changing nature of backfields. With so many tandems switching who is primary and how effective he is, it may make sense taking both players if you can afford it.

COMMENTS (page 1 of 1)

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mgmikkelson

Posted Aug 29, 2010 12:26am EDT

Seems that the lesson learned here is to stay away from Steven Jackson if you want value for you RB pick. '07 he was -13, '08 he was -10, '09 her was -5.

Nutsack

Posted Jul 11, 2010 6:05pm EDT

Lb...
Consider that Ben Tate was average at Aurburn and has fallen behind on top of being injured. Not so clear cut.

JC

Posted Jul 10, 2010 5:31am EDT

RBs take a bigger beating and thus have a shorter "shelf-life" than other players. Guys like Clinton Portis, LaDainian Tomlinson and Brian Westbrook are not technically "old", but from a football standpoint the tread on the tires is getting worn out. Those 2nd running backs like Stewart, Bradshaw, Michael Bush and Fred Jackson could come up big as a result of this trend.

MT

Posted Jul 9, 2010 3:42pm EDT

Taz, you're gonna love this, but I wouldn't be surprised if Jonathan Stewart was that guy this year. He's ranked right around #20 among all RBs right now. Another possible dark horse is Ahmad Bradshaw. Both would need injuries in front of them though...

Chicagobob466

Posted Jul 8, 2010 8:28pm EDT

Another reason in my mind is that the NFL has become more of a passing league. I would have to believe RB numbers were affected by this, aslo. Have you done an analysis on this ? Prove me wrong and I'll again be crazy enough to go RB with first pick, thanks good article

Lb.

Posted Jul 7, 2010 4:34am EDT

Ben Tate - Houston. I should charge for stuff like this. You're welcome.

tazinib1

Posted Jul 6, 2010 6:03pm EDT

Interesting info here:

2007: #5 overall RB's ADP is 25 (Adrian Peterson)
2008: #1 overall RB's ADP is 28 (Matt Forte)
2009: #2 overall RB's ADP is 26 (Ray Rice)

Who is going to be that 4th,5th round RB that will catapult owners to a Championship in 2010? Felix Jones at 21? Or perhaps a darker horse down the ADP chart.

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