FANTASY FOOTBALL ARTICLES

Other Positions:  Quarterback  |  Running Back  |  Wide Receiver

Every summer there is conventional wisdom that is expressed in the average draft positions (ADP) that you see on the internet and in magazines. They are merely the collections of numerous drafts to see where, on average, players are taken. Certainly every draft has at least the team owners to make them unique and there are plenty of scoring systems out there as well. You cannot take anything too finite from the results of averaging but comparing that to what actually happened last year using a standard fantasy scoring system gives an interesting view. It shows how well, on average, we all drafted against what happened to those players.

Just to see if there is anything in past history to help us not repeat a bad season, I've taken the liberty of assembling the Average Draft Positions from the last three years for quarterbacks, running backs and wide receivers and compared each to what happened that season. For ease of viewing, I have highlighted in green or red which players were respectively very good or very bad draft picks.

What Can We Learn?

Wide receivers are always the most interesting since there are so many more of them and they naturally have the most amount of transition for players. Starters get benched, underlings get their shot and almost every year some no-name shows up as a must-start fantasy star. This may be the most interesting group to analyze because there is so much going on each year and if doesn't often match up with conventional wisdom. One of the biggest problems is that so many have their first big season and then slip back instead of continuing to progress.

Those early picks have their flops as with any position and really fewer than seen in running backs. In this case, most of the players who suffer dramatic drops in fantasy points are because of either their own injury or that of their normal quarterback. Consider Randy Moss who was #1 with Brady, then 18th with Matt Cassel and then back to #6 with Brady.

Last year we over-valued what Calvin Johnson would do with a rookie quarterback. Steve Smith (CAR) continued to be drafted too early and now gets a new quarterback this year while recovering from a broken arm. But what is notable is that while running back flops in the first round tend to drop way back in the rankings, wideouts who disappoint in the first round only drop back maybe one tier to be more of a WR2 instead of a WR1. It doesn't help you much but it also doesn't kill you like getting a first round running back too often does.

There is obvious movement each year, but all things considered most wideouts perform roughly to expectations. At the bottom of each year the best four picks after 50th are shown and there has been some great value there. Guys like Austin, Rice and Sims-Walker all were in the breakout range in experience but had offensive situations that made it hard to believe. Eddie Royal had a huge rookie year and then flopped as a sophomore. Seems almost all of those 50+ picks that really panned out were players in the range for a breakout or in a new situation. Good to keep in mind when you are taking your own wideout depth.

The other helpful fact is that when a veteran possession receiver has a bad season, he's often too devalued the next year. Witness names like Hines Ward, Donald Driver and Derrick Mason showing up last year as nice values.

COMMENTS (page 1 of 1)

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JC

Posted Jul 10, 2010 5:42am EDT

In 2010, I see an alarming number of young, unproven wideouts getting drafted higher than they should be so far in mock drafts. Hakeem Nicks, Michael Crabtree, Mike Sims-Walker- talented players yes, but they have 1 year of success at the most to build on. For this reason, I agree with David Dorey's statement about veteran receivers. Young quarterbacks (Aaron Rodgers, Joe Flacco, Mark Sanchez, Matt Cassel) historically tend to fall back on veteran, possession type receivers who are a little more reliable. Thats why I think guys like Hines Ward, Derrick Mason, Jerrico Cotchery, Chris Chambers, and Donald Driver can provide nice value if selected as a WR3 this season.

Brandon

Posted Jul 7, 2010 10:35pm EDT

Roy Williams of the Cowboys & TJ Houshmanzadeh are 2 that come to mind

Brandon

Posted Jul 7, 2010 10:33pm EDT

Roy Williams of the Cowboys

Curt

Posted Jul 6, 2010 2:19pm EDT

Who are the veteran possession receivers that had bad seasons last year? Which players come to mind?

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