Last year was the first for Schedule Swings which ended up as a good tool. By no means the only tool or by itself completely predictive but used in concert with other tools and a bit of wisdom it makes for a very interesting and revealing read. The bottom line is that Schedule Swings considers what defenses actually allowed last year and then applies it both to last year (to see how truly easy or tough a schedule was) and this year. And then it compares the two to show how much tougher a schedule is or isn't. Bottom line - if a schedule is roughly the same strength as last year and no other dynamics are at play, then a player should end up about the same. If a player had a big 2009 but his schedule was far easier than this year, then he's most likely due for a downgrade. And if a player excelled against a bad schedule in 2009 and now has a great one, man - grab that guy.

Without making this all excessively complicated, you can view here what each defense/venue allowed per game in 2009 and how each one was a relative advantage or disadvantage.

Applying those values against the 2009 schedule for each team yielded this view of last year.

Actual Schedule Advantage of 2009

While a prolific offense will roll up points on a defense and be a part of making them be a good defense to face, they can only affect the opposing defense for two of 16 games (12.5%). So this really is an accurate measure of what each offense faced last year whether or not they took advantage of it. If a team persevered despite a tough schedule, that is impressive. If a team faltered and yet had an easier schedule, that's as disappointing as it gets.

2009 - The Actual Advantages and Disadvantages

Remember - the numbers above show how many points away from average the schedule was for each position.

Quarterbacks - Interesting. Aaron Rodgers was a the top QB last year and yet had the easiest schedule. The Alex Smith revival also came against one of the easier slates of games and Brett Favre had a career best season in some categories while playing against what ended up as the third easiest set of opponents. The bottom three quarterbacks had Matt Ryan who had a bad season, Chad Henne who maybe looks even better now considering how tough his schedule was. And it doesn't really matter but Vince Young's low passing numbers would have happened anyway. Some players are bigger than their schedule but the top and bottom schedule for quarterbacks seemed surprisingly predictive in retrospect.

Running Backs - The teams with the best rushing schedules didn't really seem to take advantage other than the Jets. The Cowboys had a big passing effort and the Texans and Saints both also had top passing attacks. Usually running backs are the more predictive players in relation to the schedule but it did not happen at the top end so much. The tougher schedules held true though with the Lions, Bears and Browns all struggling to run for at least most of the year. It was interesting too since Matt Forte had an easier schedule in 2008 and then a harder one in 2009 that seemed to really effect his performance.

Receivers - Not surprisingly, the receiver numbers were a near mirror of the quarterbacks. Packers, 49ers and Vikings all had the easier defenses and even the Colts and Cardinals were not far behind. No wonder 2009 was a year of major passing stats.

Forecasted Schedule Advantage for 2010

2009 - The Projected Advantages and Disadvantages

Quarterbacks - The NFC East gets the best passing schedule with all four teams atop the list thanks to facing the AFC South and NFC North divisions. Could spell nice things for Tony Romo to be sure and Donovan McNabb starts anew in Washington with what calculates out as the second most advantageous schedule. The tough seasons? Joe Flacco once again is saddled with a really challenging slate of games and Carson Palmer goes against a very tough set of games despite having Terrell Owens and Antonio Bryant added to the offense.

Running Backs -Steven Jackson could have a big season if he can remain healthy. And gets blocking., And there is any semblance of a passing attack. Actually, a nice schedule may be his lone advantage going into the year. The Seahawks once again have a nice schedule but a change in coaches still doesn't appear likely to change the committee approach there. Knowshon Moreno and Frank Gore both have easier games than most. In a bigger change, The Jets now have one of the worst schedules and losing Brian Westbrook may not be compensated for in Philly with a tough year facing LeSean McCoy.

Receivers - No surprise that the NFC East still sits at the top in receivers like they did in quarterbacks. That could help out Miles Austin, Dez Bryant, Santana Moss, DeSean Jackson and Steve Smith to name a few. Tough times ahead for some of those receivers who changed teams including Anquan Boldin, Brandon Marshall and Terrell Owens.

Schedule Swings

What we want to do is take what we already know about a player and apply how his schedule strength is changing from the previous season. The bottom line to evaluating a player is less about the strength of his schedule and more about how much harder or easier his schedule will be this year. That is more reflective of how his performance may change

COMMENTS (page 1 of 2)

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MLY

Posted Aug 21, 2010 4:11pm EDT

Love this report from last year, glad to see it again. Really helped me to make a good choice in RB when I picked up Benson as my RB2 in round 5 last year - elicited a chuckle. I'm laughing now as the returning champion!

Ryeball

Posted Aug 17, 2010 10:46am EDT

Love this. I'm a stats cruncher when it comes to preparing for the draft and this can be the difference between a good team and a great team. I think this is best used when drafting in the later rounds when your looking for value players and sleepers.

K7

Posted Aug 17, 2010 3:22am EDT

I think this is good info when breaking a tie. If a player is much better than go with the better player. IMHO, I would take AP over MJD because he is the better player. This makes more sense to me when comparing Eli vs Flacco. I was leaning toward Flacco, but SOS made me reconsider.

TDC

Posted Aug 17, 2010 12:32am EDT

Would you use this to pick Maurice Jones Drew(JAX @ +14.7) over Adrian Peterson(Minn @ -15.1)?

III

Posted Aug 16, 2010 2:13pm EDT

If you are between picking a couple of players at a spot draft day, SOS is a great stat to break the tie if you don't have a coin in your pocket. Great article

Ed

Posted Aug 12, 2010 4:02pm EDT

This is nicely done and well presented. My experience over the years is that this type of forecast is helpful in drafting a team, and up to approximately week 4. At that point, it is important to look at the remaining schedule on a weekly basis when choosing some starters and picking players from the wire. There are team defense surprises every year, and if you spot them quickly you can more readily make adjustments as the season unfolds.

Gorilla Guy

Posted Aug 12, 2010 12:46pm EDT

This SoS and the Offensive Line Report are key's to my draft every year and this helps get you in the top 4 finishers. This is what seperates the rel researchers and the guys who read a cheat sheet with nothing else to compare. The cheet sheets alone are for dummy's and bottom 4 finishers. Solid study will get you final 4 and after that you need to get lucky to reach the pinacle.

CCR

Posted Aug 9, 2010 10:05pm EDT

I agree that this is useful when you look at the guys on the extreme ends of the scales. It's definitely not the only stat I use, but I note the top and bottom 5 to 10 players in each position according to this info. When it comes to me in the draft and I'm looking at a few guys around the same ranking, it's a great tie breaker. Just another example of the great info you get at the Huddle.

paul

Posted Aug 9, 2010 7:33pm EDT

i have found the ease of shedule usefull for picking QB and TE. Im not sure if its too acurate on RB.

Russ

Posted Aug 9, 2010 5:32pm EDT

I always list the Strength of Schedule on my draft list for each player, so this is a great set of data for me - Thanks Dave! I think it provides a good tie breaker scenario when trying to pick between two or three guys. i.e. I have Eli Manning vs. Joe Flaco around the same rank. If i had to choose between the two I would definitely sway toward Eli because of his +23 vs. Flaco's -24

DMD

Posted Aug 9, 2010 2:44pm EDT

As I mention in the article, this is by no means the only tool to use and it is something to apply some wisdom to as well. As with most measuring tools, only those on the further extremes are noteworthy and it has been at least somewhat predictive for those on either end of the bell curve.

Jason Mc

Posted Aug 9, 2010 2:34pm EDT

Interesting article like many on the site are, but honestly this is one area I dont even hardly consider on draft day. Trying to predict strength of schedule matchups are just so hard prior to seasons starting, as the league seems to change so quick every year. There are already so many variables you have to look at when drafting players, that if you get this far down the list it just makes the task of drafting almost too daunting.

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