FANTASY FOOTBALL ARTICLES

One of the more common mistakes made by those new to fantasy football is to draft their kicker too early. Bottom line – pick you kickers last.  Final round stuff. Anything earlier is more optimistic than the last time you emailed Jennifer Aniston and asked her out on a date.

Here’s why – you will pick the wrong one. Oh sure, you’re plenty good but kickers are the guaranteed bit of random luck in fantasy football. We all know that the kickers are drafted in the order of their finish the previous season. How else can you remember a kicker name anyway? But what happens when you use the last season’s top ten as a guide? Where did the top ten kickers from each previous year end up the next season?

That final column says it all. The average result for a kicker in the top ten each season is to be unworthy of being a fantasy starter the next year and it is the same for the highest scoring kicker down to the tenth best. Last year was one of the best with half of the top ten of 2008 returning a top ten performance in 2009.  Back in 2006, only one kicker returned to the top ten the next season.  Let’s put this into even better perspective – the top three kickers are generally the only “difference makers” in the position and yet for the last ten years if you ever selected a top three kicker from the previous season, you ended up back in the top three only twice of 30 chances.  Go ahead, reach for the top three kicker of last year and know you have a 93% chance of wasting a pick. And even then, it has never been better than the #3 scoring kicker.

Let’s say that you have your favorite kicker and you have to draft him. Unless he proves as some sort of a good luck charm, chances are you are just overvaluing the player. Taking a look back at the top ten scoring kickers from last year and how they placed in the previous five seasons, the news is not good.

Rest assured, Nate Kaeding, David Akers and Ryan Longwell will be among the top kickers drafted in your league. And taking a look at these results may seem to suggest that Kaeding, Akers, Longwell, Mason Crosby and Stephen Gostkowski appear to be the lowest risks.  Problem is that if you want them, you are going to need to spend an early pick on them since they will be the first kickers to go. The final piece of the puzzle is to understand how many points your kickers score.

Using just the standard three points per field goal and one point per extra point, the breakdown in points per game for those top ten kickers every year is the final nail in the coffin of desirability.

Perhaps it looks good to see an extra 30 total points between the #1 and #10 kicker in the average year. But taken as per game, the difference is rarely more than about two points per game.  If you are in a league of ten or twelve teams and your kicker scores like the average starter, you are losing out on only one point per game to the highest scorer. There is just minimal difference in overall points between the top kickers and that is if you even could get lucky enough to land a top player from the start.

Kickers are an appropriate position to use in fantasy football since it mimics an actual NFL team and there can be strategy in deciding which kicker to use in a given week. But overall? About the only decent measuring stick is that the top kickers from the past year are all but guaranteed to disappoint. The very same kickers who will be first drafted in your league.  Let other team owners squander earlier picks on kickers  while you build depth in other positions.  If you think you have to own one of the more desired kickers, so be it. At least it will give you something to discuss at dinner with Jennifer.

COMMENTS (page 1 of 1)

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Ray

Posted Aug 31, 2010 5:50pm EDT

My comment is similar to BlckSlvr57. In our league Field Goals btw 1-39 yards get 3 points, 40 - 49 yards get 5 points, and 50+ get 10 points.
Are there any kickers you recommend for having both opportunity at long distance, as well as high % of made field goals from high distance? Thanks!

BlckSlvr57

Posted Aug 22, 2010 12:29pm EDT

Our league, even though very unusual, uses a distance scoring methodology. Field goals longer than 54 yards are worth 15 points. Between 54 and 50 yards, 10 points. Between 40 and 50 yards, 7 points. Etc, etc. Other positions (QB, RB, WR, & Special Teams) have a similar "distance" scoring format. Makes for a very interesting draft and typically, yes, some kickers are chosen as early as the 8th round simply because of their strong leg and multiple opportunities in regards to their offense stalling inside the 35 yard line.

Dorey

Posted Aug 2, 2010 2:06pm EDT

Not really because kickers are "after the fact" meaning they are merely the end of a series that scored a TD (XP) or got reasonably close to a TD (FG) and that is all up to the rest of the team - not the kicker. You cannot rely on kicker accuracy since it doesn't much come into play. It is all about opportunities and that is not in the kickers control.

OptionPackage

Posted Aug 2, 2010 12:27pm EDT

Would this hold true for a ROTO Keeper league where 1 of the 8 scoring categories is FG yardage and another is TOT points and 3 kickers are picked per team (8) with many teams often filling a utility slot with an extra kicker? I understand the consistency argument based on previous years performance ... might there be a better barometer to project a kickers performance?

Gunmen10

Posted Aug 1, 2010 11:35am EDT

My league has a scoring system where K is a little more valuable, you get 5pts for 40-49, and 10 pts for 50+. So you get some of the K who can kick long range bombs going earlier. Also having a warm weather/dome kicker has been HUGE for me. Gostowski, Akers or Crosby can ruin your season by one bad weather game in the fantasy playoffs.

Razorbacks92

Posted Jul 29, 2010 10:09pm EDT

I have never picked a kicker prior to the last round, even when I have extra long rosters. Thanks for bolstering that. People consistently think I am crazy, but a kicker has never been the difference in my win/loss record!

lou

Posted Jul 16, 2010 1:43pm EDT

Gostkowski has that Patriots flu-bug.... Belachik would rather LOSE 2 games than use his kicker the correct way....I can't see ANY Patriot on anyones roster as long as GOD Belachik is still around... This guy tries to RE-iNVENT the wheel EVERY DAMN SEASON.. ENOUGH... LOU

LegFuJohnson

Posted Jul 13, 2010 2:51pm EDT

Is there a chart on how well the typical WR6 or RB5's do?

Not that I would pick a kicker until near the end, but maybe I've got 3 or 4 picks left. I know I'm going to take a kicker, a longshot rookie WR or RB (maybe there are 2 or 3 to choose from), and a RB handcuff that I know no one else will take.

So what's the difference if I take the kicker in the 15th or 16th round instead of 18th?

I don't disagree that a kicker is mostly a crapshoot, but is it anymore of a crapshoot than taking one of the longshot rookies?

SilverBeacon

Posted Jul 13, 2010 11:27am EDT

Preaching to the choir, David. Thanks for showing that facts behind this long-standing rule. I always smile when the first kicker comes off the board before the final 2 rounds of my drafts! It is more fun working the waiver wire for a hot leg during the season than worrying about them in the draft!

DMD

Posted Jul 13, 2010 2:09am EDT

Nice catch - has been corrected.

lockwim

Posted Jul 12, 2010 11:19pm EDT

David,

Interseting article on kickers. Dumb question. How can David Akers be #2 in 2008 and 2009 but first chart show previous year #2 scorer finishing 24th? Same with Kaeding? Longwell? Crosby?

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