FANTASY FOOTBALL ARTICLES

A treat for you Huddlers, I compiled all the red zone data for the top QBs, RBs, WRs onto one convenient table.  It’s a useful chart to print out and reference while you’re drafting.  Very simple, the players are ranked by 2009’s numbers – QB Drew Brees is #1 with 96 red zone passes last year.  RBs by red zone carries, WRs by red zone targets. The ’08 and ’07 numbers are added where applicable, if only to get a wider perspective. I don’t list TEs because they rarely get above 20 red zone looks... and the position is deeper than ever.  Look below for my JUMbo thoughts on some of these numbers.

QB Drew Brees – He led all QBs with 96 throws inside the 20 despite the Saints finishing 7th in the NFL in rushing attempts. How does that compute? Sean Payton lets him check out of a run anytime; they’re always in long, methodical drives. The Saints averaged a whopping 62 yards per scoring drive, #2 in the league behind Indy.  Drew is a surgeon. I believe he’s the only one guaranteed to be a top-three fantasy QB (sorry Peyton & Aaron).

QB Carson Palmer – Now he adds T.O. to the mix along with Chad Ochocinco and Antonio Bryant. None of them are spring chickens, but damn that’s a lot of talent. Palmer was sort of middle-of-the-pack with 67 attempts. He could pop that number back into the 80’s (where he was in 2007) if they just sustain drives. Only seven teams had more three-and-out drives than Cincinnati last year.  

QB Matthew Stafford – Did you notice that Stafford only played 10 games but still managed 42 red zone attempts?  That’s 4.20 per game, right up close to Tom Brady (4.94) who appears to be throwing on every down. His blind side is pretty safe with LT Jeff Backus and there probably isn’t a more underrated lineman than RG Stephen Peterman.  I hope Stafford is my QB2 in 2010.

QB Matt Leinart – I’m glass half-full on Leinart.  The Cardinals are clearly leaning more toward the run now that they have the personnel. He’ll get the benefit of play-action to get in a rhythm, unlike Kurt Warner who had the burden of setting up runs with his passing.  Plus it’s been quiet on the Leinart party scene lately. No more photos of him funneling beers and squeezing on young chicks.  Maybe he’s working hard for once.

RB Joseph Addai – Wow, look up at that chart again… Addai actually led the NFL in red zone carries (60) in 2007. No wonder he was the fifth best fantasy RB that year.  Obviously he’ll never hit that mark again with Donald Brown stealing 18 red zone attempts. Though I gotta say, Addai pretty much held off Brown amidst all that rookie hype.  I know another fantasy “expert” who took Brown in the fourth round last year.  

RB Chris Johnson – I don’t have the archived red zone data from the Payton or Sanders era but I’m positive CJ is the first back to hit 2,000 yards with less than 40 red zone carries.  He was scoring from downtown, no doubt about it.  Stat of the Week #1: The Titans were 23rd in 3rd down conversions during their 0-6 streak – then up to sixth during the 8-2 run with Vince Young. 

RB Beanie Wells – Kent Somers of the Arizona Republic (who really has the pulse of Ken Whisenhunt) says Tim Hightower will continue to “start” but Beanie Wells will get the majority of carries.  Sounds cool but for Beanie to deliver on the fantasy hype he must really elevate his carries – from the 13-15 range to 17-19 – and start catching passes too. He only caught (gulp) 12 passes in 18 games including the playoffs!

RB Michael Turner – Look at Jason Snelling way up the list with 40 red zone carries in basically half a season!  The way I see it, if Turner hadn’t suffered that high ankle sprain he would have led all RBs with 70+ attempts!  Look for Turner to have a sweet bounce-back year. Stat of the Week #2: Turner has 27 TDs in 27 games for Atlanta. Ssshhh…

RB Darren McFadden – I’ve mentioned before that McFadden has flashed big-time ability between all the injuries.  As a rookie he delivered a 10+ yard play once every 5.68 times he ran or caught the ball, good for third among all RBs that year.  I’m not going to trip over myself trying to draft a Raiders RB but if forced to choose – Michael Bush in the 7th or McFadden in the 8th – I’m going with Run-DMC.

WR Steve Smith – Yes, that’s “Other” Steve Smith up there tied for 4th in red zone targets. And not only did he have more than the Panther, he out-red-zoned him last year too!  The Giant is just an overall reception machine who’s caught 5+ passes in 13 of his last 20 games.  Is Eli-Smith becoming a Peyton-Harrison?

WR Randy Moss – On one hand, Moss’ red-zone looks are going down each year. Maybe he’s not getting as much separation -- so Brady’s throwing elsewhere?  On the other hand, if Welker misses time because of that surgically-repaired knee, part of his sizable red zone tally might go back to Moss.

WR Santana Moss – Even though Jason Campbell was relatively high in red zone passes (68) last year, Moss only got 14 of those his way. Now he just turned 31, had an offseason knee scope, and is linked to a federal HGH investigation.  I always seem to have Santana on my fantasy team but I swear he won’t join me this year.

WR Lee Evans – He’s perhaps the most underutilized top-shelf wide receiver of the decade. Only 30 red-zone looks in three seasons?   That’s criminal.  Evans has a beefy 15.8 yard/catch average over his career with two 1,000-yard seasons – despite the worst assortment of quarterbacking in the AFC. Whoops, Oakland… okay, second worst.  Anyway who cares if Evans is 5’10, just toss him the rock!

WR Greg Jennings – Dropping from 23 to 15 to 11?  Surely this trend for Jennings will reverse with Donald Driver coming off surgeries on both knees. The thing is, when Aaron Rodgers gets in the red zone he spreads it around – James Jones, Jermichael Finley, Ryan Grant, Brandon Jackson, even some dude named Havner.  Or he’ll pull it down and scoot.

WR Arrelious Benn – I’m not going to pretend that I know a whole lot about Benn, the second-round pick from Illinois.  But all you hear out of the Tampa media is how powerful the 6’2/220-lb receiver is.  Well, the NFC South is loaded with smallish defensive backs, and both Atlanta & New Orleans ranked in the bottom-7 in pass defense. 

JUM

COMMENTS (page 1 of 1)

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DMM

Posted Aug 12, 2010 11:02pm EDT

Can you provide these stats for TEs?

John U. Miller

Posted Aug 11, 2010 2:01pm EDT

Yep, whenever a guns-blazing offense is spreading it around, I want the guy doing the spreading. If you're talking a second- or third-round pick on Brees, Colston, or Pierre Thomas... give me Brees. He's the only one touching the ball on every single snap.

JUM

CCR

Posted Aug 11, 2010 9:09am EDT

It seems to me that percentage of looks in the red zone wouldn't matter as much as number of looks though. You can't get a look if your team doesn't make it there. Brees appears to not only take his team there more, but he uses his arm there more than anyone else. So Colston gets more opportunities to get a look in the red zone. Hopefully that makes sense to someone besides myself.

Anyway, bottom line, I want Brees on my team.

John U. Miller

Posted Aug 10, 2010 2:15pm EDT

Yep, Brees spreads it around. He sees the field better than anyone (including Peyton Manning in my opinion) so if the first read isn't 100% clean the ball's headed elsewhere. Colston gets plenty of red-zone looks but it could be so much more, sadly. Everyone gets a shot in New Orleans, from Colston and Meachem on down to Bush and P. Thomas, even Heath Evans and David Thomas.

JUM

loaf

Posted Aug 10, 2010 1:39pm EDT

what I find interesting is that Colston was targeting 25 times. Brees had 96 RZ attempts. Not sure if all of Colston's targets were from Brees but that's about 1/4th of those pass attempts.
Steve Smith had 1/3rd of the pass attempts from Eli (provided Eli threw them all). I like Smith's odds more

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