FANTASY FOOTBALL ARTICLES

We had some requests for a Quarterback By Committee (QBBC) write-up, pivoting off my recent Team Defense by Committee article. Done deal.

Keep in mind I'm not totally hip on this idea anymore. I spent about 10 years waiting to pick a quarterback around the sixth to ninth rounds, then piggy-backing a solid backup right after that. It was a religion to me. Tom Brady? Nope. Brett Favre? I'll pass. QBBC worked like a charm a couple times. In 2004 I took Jake Plummer (Denver) in the eighth round. He was coming off an injury-marred season but rebounded to post 4,089 yards and 27 TD passes. In that same draft I followed Plummer with Jake Delhomme in the 9th round. He had the best season of his career (3,886 & 29 TD passes). I alternated them and seemed to hit it right each time. Cruised to a fantasy title despite spotty RB production.

But more often than not, I seemed to end up with committee-mediocrity that usually involved some combination of these names – Jeff Garcia, Drew Bledsoe, Aaron Brooks, Marc Bulger, Jon Kitna, or even (gulp) David Carr. There were some good moments… Kitna had spurts, Bulger got hot sometimes… but I really think QBBC cost me a few fantasy titles. Pencil me in for Tony Romo or Peyton Manning early if the draft is flowing right for me this year. I want a guy who’s proven it over and over. That said, I’ve developed three good QBBC menus for 2010, and I gotta say these are making me tingle a little bit. The old “wait-on-my-QBs” urge comes rushing back so quickly. One or two of these could be deep homers to left center.

Quarterback By Committee is a set of three pre-screened QB pairings. Depending on your draft’s flow you’ll try to land one of the below three menus. No matter which menu you go with, you’re using mid-to-late-round picks and assuring yourself a near continuous string of good matchups where the QB 1) has a home game/good weather that week, and/or 2) faces a defense that’s in transition or just perceived to be weaker. It’s that simple…

Key: Opponents highlighted in yellow are the matchups you choose that week. Playoff weeks 13-16 are in blue. Week #17 has no selection because your league shouldn’t be active that week.

Menu 1 Summary: This is for the Flacco fans. I do suspect his breakout buzz might be heavier than expected, hence you may have to move in the sixth round to make sure you get him. If Anquan Boldin stays healthy Flacco is worth the pick. You’d keep him benched in week one at the Jets (unless Revis is still holding out?) then start him against the Bengals, Browns, Steelers, Patriots, Bills and Dolphins early in the season – three of them at home. Even the road game at New England looks pretty good… they haven’t had a top-10 pass defense since 2007 despite playing in a weak passing division. Stafford’s your guy on opening day in what could be a shootout at Chicago. Stafford goes in again vs. the Rams, then vs. Washington while Flacco’s on bye. Detroit also has good matchups vs. Chicago and at Tampa Bay in weeks 13 & 15. Stafford will always be indoors or at least warm when you use him. Flacco is at Cleveland if you make it to your championship game. If Flacco is stolen right ahead of you but your eye was also on Matt Ryan, look below…

Menu 2 Summary: Ryan’s usually the 11th or 12th QB taken, and at that slot he’s usually someone’s high-priced backup. If you like QBBC and believe Ryan can climb into the 3600-yard/25-TD range then he’s your QB1. Remember, Matty Ice was on pace for 25 TD passes before a nasty toe injury in November. His schedule is littered with gold – Arizona, Cleveland, Tampa Bay (twice), St. Louis, & Seattle. The home game vs. San Francisco could be nice too. Last year Ryan hit them for 329 yards & three total TDs at their house. McNabb is the wild card here. You’ll get him cheap. He does offer another matchup against the Rams. And with this menu you’ll get McNabb vs. Tampa Bay in week 14, your third swing at the Bucs over a six-week period. This menu combines a steady upside passer with a proven veteran ‘slinger – and it’s something like I would have done a few years ago. Remember, it allows you to carb-load on RBs, WRs, and a stud TE early. With this menu you probably just need a handful of big games from the pair in order to get in the playoffs. The only question is: Do Moss and Galloway have enough left for McNabb?

Menu 3 Summary: Okay, okay… this is the QBBC pairing that might drag me back in. This one’s for riverboat gamblers. Kolb and Leinart are both essentially unproven. In fact, some are guessing that Leinart will lose his job to Derek Anderson. I don’t see that happening but more on that in a second. Kolb is a fantasy buzz-sleeper and yes he will go around the sixth round in your draft. Maybe the seventh if there’s no Eagle fan in your league. Still a good price for Kolb if he just mimics what McNabb did. Look, amidst all the injuries and balls thrown in the dirt, McNabb still averaged 1.65 TD passes per game in Andy Reid’s offense the last six years. That’s more than Brett Favre (1.57) and just behind Drew Brees (1.84). Kolb’s got the supporting cast and a marshmallow-ish opening schedule for finding his rhythm. But here’s where the real gamble comes in. You might have to turn it over to Leinart down the stretch – and what if he’s lost the gig to Anderson? Me, I ain’t buyin’ it. Anderson’s 29-TD season was in 2007, ages ago in football terms. Heck, Scott Mitchell once flung 32 TDs for Detroit. I’m squarely in Leinart’s corner. Cardinals HC Ken Whisenhunt’s been pretty quiet about Leinart’s progress but safety Adrian Wilson spilled the beans last week to SI.com: “To be honest with you, Matt has really jumped out at me… I think he's really matured and it's showing.” I thought Leinart made some good throws vs. Houston though he needs the entire preseason to get the kinks out.

Uh oh, I think I just talked myself into Quarterback By Committee again. I thought I had this QBBC insanity licked, but the idea of this roster is really appealing:

Notice I went ahead and jumped on Leinart in the 11th to make sure I locked in Menu 3 above. Even going WR with my first pick I ended up with RBs DeAngelo Williams, Cedric Benson, Joseph Addai, and Donald Brown (Addai-insurance, sweet). The receivers are tight, led by Andre Johnson and ending with Lee Evans as my WR4. Don’t forget my ol’ Team Defense by Committee near the end. Somewhere in there I even installed a QB/TE battery with Kolb-to-Celek. A lot rides on Kolb but hey, this is a classic QBBC draft. I know this roster is possible because I just mock-drafted this exact team three hours ago.

Sorry Romo. Kev, I’m coming for you!

JUM

COMMENTS (page 1 of 2)

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Eeook

Posted Aug 25, 2010 3:23pm EDT

I did took Matt Ryan followed up with D. McNabb later. .. this just makes me feel better

Shane

Posted Aug 21, 2010 5:12pm EDT

I used to do the same thing. QBBC. Musical QB's. But with the heavy passing in the league now, less stud RB's, the least risk of injury with a QB, I'm going to be looking for a QB earlier. Maybe not in the 1st, 2nd, or 3rd round but somewhere soon after, instead of the 7th, 8th, 9th round like before. Ride a solid QB tlhat you don't have to mess around with and get a sleeper backup. That's my new strategy. We'll see how it works.

John U. Miller

Posted Aug 19, 2010 11:29am EDT

"Its a great article, dont get me wrong, but if you're platooning avg qbs youre not gonna win your league. I think Kolb/McNabb/Cutler and most certainly Favre can carry your team if lucks riding w/ them this year, but I would always want an established QB. If you hitch your wagon to Flacco or Eli you're doomed."

Yeah, I've gone back and forth with this concept. Like I said, I've won with it before. But lately it seemed like I might have made a mistake. Then again, I often *really* waited, until like the 8th or 9th round. That would be applicable to McNabb or Palmer in 2010.

This year I tailored QBBC to more of a 6th-7th round move. I chose Kolb, Ryan, and Flacco as the QB1s in those menus because I personally feel they will be better than average... a couple of them possibly top-7. It's a gamble. But if you hit one of those combos, remember you're probably already mega-stacked at RB and WR. You're not even asking the QB scores to be great, just good.

It's a trade-off. You go QB early and you've passed on a stud RB or WR for sure.

Maybe the sweet spot is Schaub in the 4th (?), we could go on and on about the possibilities.

I can say this. I truly believe Kolb is going to be top-5. Hence my dilemma, because my original hunch was to get Romo early. 8

Randy

Posted Aug 19, 2010 2:04am EDT

I have the #3 pick in a league that gives 6 pts per QB touchdown, making it a QB heavy league. Do you have some expected stats for the QB combos (per game preferably) that would let us with different scoring systems see how well this fits?

I love the RB/WR sets waiting to draft Kolb or Flacco gives me. I'd really like to try this strategy this year, but need some more info.

Thanks for the article - good stuff.

MW

Posted Aug 18, 2010 4:07pm EDT

Its a great article, dont get me wrong, but if you're platooning avg qbs youre not gonna win your league. I think Kolb/McNabb/Cutler and most certainly Favre can carry your team if lucks riding w/ them this year, but I would always want an established QB. If you hitch your wagon to Flacco or Eli you're doomed

John U. Miller

Posted Aug 17, 2010 1:58pm EDT

Go ahead and PM me anytime on the Forums ("JUMbotron") and I'll help any way I can.
Thanks!
John

telestar

Posted Aug 17, 2010 1:22pm EDT

John: I appreciate your answer. I think I would go for one of your QB committees (preferably with Kolb or Flacco as the lead) rather than wait for Eli. I just don't like Palmer, Orton or even McNabb this year. I think that I just might use an approximate fourth rounder on a TE in the hope of getting a guy like Witten, Finley or even V.Davis. If I forced you to pick in a PPR league Witten or Finley plus the Kolb/Leinart combo vs. Z.Miller (OAK) plus Schaub which way would you go? Coin flip?
Thanks for the great articles - really enjoying them.

John U. Miller

Posted Aug 16, 2010 6:30pm EDT

telestar that is a tough one.

Like you said, fourth round seems to be the cutoff. After Schaub and Rivers in the fourth, the next tier seems to be the Favre/Kolb/Cutler level in the sixth.

In your case I might jump on TE Finley/Witten in the fourth and ride it out, hope Cutler slips to the sixth... or clench your teeth and go Flacco or Eli in the seventh (?).

For the record, if Eli is your QB1 then he'll pair up well with Palmer or McNabb taken a round later. Or maybe Orton if you want to wait a little longer for your QB2.

telestar

Posted Aug 16, 2010 5:36pm EDT

John: If you were in a deeper PPR league and had to go "cheap" on either TE or QB which would you advise? Fourth round can get you a top-four option at either position, but then waiting until the fifth round means that you are better off using QBBC or a cheaper TE option (such as Z.Miller OAK or K.Winslow). I was leaning towards a cheaper TE but am now reconsidering based on your well-written article.
Thanks in advance for any help.

Gary

Posted Aug 16, 2010 5:09pm EDT

Nice - Thanks for putting that together.

John U. Miller

Posted Aug 16, 2010 3:20pm EDT

I don't know. I'm really starting to drool over Kolb after the other night's display vs. Jax. Granted it was an exhibition and the Jags are a mess, but Kolb was scanning the entire field, side-stepping, flipping lasers.

Here's Kolb's ADP from several sources:

Huddle - 9th QB taken, early-to-mid 6th
FF Calculator - 8th QB taken, early 6th
Antsports - 9th QB taken, early-to-mid 6th

I really believe there's a quiet hype-surge behind Kolb and many fantays owners aren't mentioning him because they like him under the radar... If you are drafting this weekend - like me - one of your buddies plans on taking him in the 5th round. That's my hunch.

JUM

K7

Posted Aug 16, 2010 3:19am EDT

I picked Favre in the 10th and Cassel in the 11th round last year and got lucky with old # 4. I like Kolb a lot, but how early do I grab him...

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