FANTASY FOOTBALL DRAFT KIT

Anderson comes over to the Cardinals and backs up Matt Leinart. That’s probably a fantasy wasteland, but there is still a chance that Leinart could stumble so badly that Anderson gets a shot. No need to consider Anderson until Leinart is in trouble.

08-24-10 Update: It is still far from certain that Anderson even plays a down this year but Leinart's struggles do improve Anderson's chances to play with Larry Fitzgerald.

08-27-10 Update: Anderson gets the start in week three of the preseason and Leinart has done nothing to hold on to the job. Really neither quarterback is a safe play.

Bradford’s surgically repaired shoulder was no concern to the Rams when they made him the first overall draft pick in April. The Ex-Sooner star played in a prolific spread offense at Oklahoma and showed scouts that he is just as effective under center. Bradford was a two-year starter for the Sooners and threw for 8,403 yards, 88 touchdowns, and just 16 interceptions with a 67.6% completion percentage. In 2008 alone he threw for 50 touchdowns with only eight interceptions. He is considered the ideal size for a quarterback at 6’4” and 236 pounds but was picked up by the woeful Rams.

Bradford is all but guaranteed to be the starting quarterback in week one with only A.J. Feeley to beat out and what will be a huge contract he will be signing. In fantasy terms, his outlook is limited for 2009 with little more than Steven Jackson as an offensive weapon but he’ll learn the job as he goes. In a dynasty league, Bradford has obvious long-term value.

There are two factors to consider about Brady this year. First, he is now going on two years after his knee injuries and is able to work out fully in the offseason unlike 2009. A completely healthy Brady is a dangerous weapon and even last year he still threw for 4398 yards and 28 touchdowns – both second best in his career and top five in the NFL. The other significant factor is that Wes Welker is recovering from his knee surgery and torn rotator cuff. Welker accounted for 123 catches in 2009 which not only led the NFL, it was second highest in NFL history. He had over 110 catches in each of his previous two seasons. Brady will start out with questions around his #1 target. Randy Moss is no slouch, but Moss had 40 fewer catches than Welker last year. And that was with the defense worried about Welker.

In true Patriot fashion, they merely restocked with more aging veterans (Torry Holt and David Patten) and drafted Taylor Price in the third round and still have Brandon Tate who missed his rookie season because of injury. The biggest difference is not so much that Brady’s numbers are going to nosedive, it is that who will catch those 123 catches is going to be hard to gauge.

08-22-10 Update: Brady takes a bump up because not only are his receivers looking good - including Welker - but the rushing attack should be able to offer plenty of support when needed.

Brees was only 5th best in the NFL last year with 4398 passing yards but his 34 touchdowns were tops in the league. That made it four straight season with more than 4300 passing yards and two years in a row with 34 scores. Brees even had a career low interception mark in 2009 with just 11. He ended his year with the Super Bowl MVP and now gets to play as the league champion.

The Saints' schedule is about the same strength as last year and all the same notable players are returning. The reigning NFL champs have a target on their back this season but that may only serve to have Brees throw even more. Brees has four straight big seasons, no reason to not expect him to string it to five.

Brian Brohm is the early favorite to be the starting quarterback for the Bills this year, though that “honor” may be held by several players before December is finished. New HC Chan Gailey has opened the job up for competition but Trent Edwards has already proven inadequate and Ryan Fitzgerald is a definite third place going into camp. Brohm was a second round pick by the Packers in 2008 but has only played in two games in the league, both last year for the Bills. The quarterback battle is only mildly interesting to those in incredibly deep leagues because this offense is shaping up to be as bad as last year.

While HC Tom Cable may pretend there is a quarterback competition, there is no doubt that Campbell will be the starter here and although he’s spent his career being slightly below average, that’s still miles above what has been going on in Oakland. Campbell inherits what has been one of the worst passing attacks for the last several seasons. The Raiders passed for a league-low ten touchdowns in 2009 and were ranked dead last in completions and yards from the wide receivers. Campbell is lucky in that there is literally nowhere to go but up.

But he will be playing with a team that had no wideouts with more than 34 catches or 521 yards last year. Darrius Heyward-Bey has been a major bust, and Louis Murphy and Chaz Schilens are likely just depth on any other team. But Campbell will bring out the best in them, and the players did respond last year when Bruce Gradkowski and Charlie Frye started games. The schedule is on the light side and you can get Campbell cheaply in drafts. He’s not a fantasy starter here but could mildly surprise and warrant being fantasy depth.

Cassel has this year to prove himself or he’ll likely be gone when he is owed $11.75 million in 2011 with a $7.5 million option bonus. He had a good year filling in for Tom Brady in 2008 when he passed for 3696 yards and 21 touchdowns, but his first season in Kansas City only produced 2924 yards and 16 touchdowns against 16 interceptions. Apparently not throwing to Wes Welker and Randy Moss was harder. But Cassel does have Dwayne Bowe and Chris Chambers, which is certainly no worse than average and probably a bit better.

The Chiefs have a slightly better schedule than last year and an easier one than most. This is make or break for Cassel and he must show he really is more than just a backup quality quarterback playing over his head.

Clausen has the tools needed to develop into a starting quarterback in the NFL. With three years of experience playing in Charlie Weis’ pro-style offense, he is a very smart, intelligent quarterback with great instincts. He has experience going through his reads and progressions as a quarterback along with playing under center, unlike many of the other quarterbacks in this year’s draft. Jimmy has great mechanics with a clean, quick delivery; his arm strength is very good, with the ability to consistently throw the ball down the field in the passing game.

This will be a training camp watch because Matt Moore is the de facto starter and Clausen will have to win the job away without pissing off teammates—which he has been known to do. Clausen fell to the 2.16 pick for Carolina in part because of a perceived attitude. He looked good in mini-camp but he was also reported to have upset his receivers, a report which was later refuted. It is a situation worth watching, and in dynasty leagues he will be a definite must- track player. But for 2010, he’ll most likely watch Moore play. If Clausen does start at any point in the season, it is very uinlikely he will produce fantasy numbers to merit him being a starter.

(-Risk) (+Upside) Much has been made of the football marriage of Cutler and new Bears OC Mike Martz, and it’s bound to inflate Cutler’s fantasy value heading into the 2010 season. Before you fall into this trap, here’s a couple things to consider. First, there isn’t much for Martz to change from last season, when the Bears ranked eighth in the league in passing attempts and 29th in rushes—typical Martz numbers. Second, aside from a couple monster seasons at the turn of the century with Kurt Warner, Marshall Faulk, Torry Holt, and Isaac Bruce, the numbers for Martz’s quarterbacks haven’t been anything special. In other words, if you sift through all of the Martz hype surrounding Cutler you’ll find that what you saw last year is pretty much what you’re going to see this year.

Cutler will throw plenty, just like last year (555 attempts, fourth behind Schaub, Manning, and Brady). He’ll throw a bunch of touchdowns; the Jon Kitna/J.T. O’Sullivan tandem in Detroit in 2007 is the only Martz-coached quarterback collective to fall short of 20 TD passes. He’ll also throw copious interception; if you liked his 26 INTs last year you’ll love the fact that the cumulative TD:INT ratio for Martz quarterbacks over the past seven seasons is 154:159, that three of the last four Martz-quarterbacked teams have had more picks than touchdowns, and that not since Kurt Warner in 2001 has a Martz quarterback had a TD:INT ratio better than +2. Cutler will also spend a great deal of time running for his life behind a Bears’ offensive line that was fortunate to allow only 35 sacks last year, did little to upgrade, and won’t get any help from Martz schemes that have led to 40+ sacks in every offense he’s been in—172 sacks during his last three seasons at the helm.

The bottom line is that it won’t be pretty to watch, but Cutler will put up numbers—numbers that, depending on your degree of optimism in the development of his receiving corps, put him at the end of the top-tier fantasy quarterbacks or at the fore of the next grouping.

08-29-10 Update: Cutler still has yet to look genuinely in synch with the new offense and scoots down two spots since he'll likely start the year slower than expected. He's been sacked nine times in the preseason which is affecting his willingness to stand in the pocket for very long.

On the plus side, it cannot get worse for Delhomme who inherits a passing attack that ranked dead last in yardage (2227) last year. Then again, it may not get any better. Delhomme has struggled with injuries and production since 2005 and comes off his worst career showing when he only managed 2015 yards and eight scores against 18 interceptions in his 11 games last year.

Delhomme will certainly start the season and also will help mentor Colt McCoy. But Delhomme is playing on a team that still has no apparent viable wideouts and he’ll share at least a little with Seneca Wallace who is slated to get a few plays in special formations. Factor in McCoy getting some playing time and there is not much to like about Delhomme who has been, literally, one of the worst quarterbacks for the last two seasons. Look elsewhere for your backup QB and if not, plan on tracking this mess all season.

(-Risk) With Ben Roethlisberger suspended from four to six games, Dixon should be first in line to become the interim starter. The third year quarterback has only thrown 27 NFL passes but is considered most likely to fill in from the group that includes Charlie Batch and Byron Leftwich. HC Mike Tomlin has said he will not determine which quarterback starts until August, and even then there is no guarantee that the player remains the starter until Big Ben returns. Unless you are drafting Roethlisberger – and not a great idea there – then the winner of the #2 has only temporary value.

09-02-10 Update: Dixon likely grabs the starter role while Roethlisberger is out thanks in part to Byron Leftwich injuring his knee. But Charlie Batch could also be used in whole or part and the Steelers do not want to name a quarterback yet for competitive reasons. There is no safe play here and even after week one, there is no certainty that they won't change again.

Trent Edwards is the starting quarterback for the Bills but only going into training camp where an open competition for the job is being held by new HC Chan Gailey. The Bills ranked in the bottom three in virtually all passing categories, though 46 sacks were only fourth worst in the league. Edwards only played in eight games last year and had a concussion and an ankle injury. Some consider the fourth-year player shell-shocked after the beating he took behind a patchwork offensive line. No matter what – Edwards has no real fantasy value this year. With the new coaching regime owning no ties, Brian Brohm is considered the favorite to get the starting job this year.

He’s ba-ack! Well, at least all signs—including the billboard Vikings fans purchased in Mississippi encouraging him to return—point to another season for Favre. After setting the hot tub time machine for vintage mid-90s Favre, Brett is once again taking his own sweet time in the offseason before deciding if he can squeeze at least one more season out of his 40-year-old body. Considering that last year’s numbers stood out even amongst his Hall of Fame caliber stats—career highs in completion percentage and passer rating, a personal low in INTs, and yards and TDs that ranked with his best years ever—it isn't a matter of whether or not Favre could still play; it’s obvious he still can. But after absorbing 34 sacks—his most in 10 years—and a brutal physical beating at the hands of the Saints in the NFC title game, Favre needed minor ankle surgery and several months of R&R before entertaining the notion of another season in the NFL.

Assuming Favre returns, that means the Vikings have all 22 starters back from last year—which has them believing they're on the cusp of a Super Bowl, and even Brad Childress knows it ain’t Tarvaris Jackson who’s going to get them there. Fantasy-wise, Favre’s return would mean about 500 more yards and a half-dozen touchdowns for Minnesota receivers to fight over; Visanthe Shiancoe’s value is solid regardless of quarterback, but both Sidney Rice and Percy Harvin should receive a healthy goose in their stats now that Favre is back in town. Adrian Peterson owners might not be happy about his ceding looks at the stripe to Favre and the passing game, but overall Minnesota’s offense is more productive with Favre than it would be with Jackson. You certainly have to weigh the prospects that Father Time and overexuberant defenders might catch up with Favre and snap his consecutive games streak, if not a brittle bone or two, but there’s no question he’s still capable of putting up some very helpful fantasy numbers. Favre ranks this low because you just never know what he's going to do, but once the assumed becomes official he'll vault into the top 10.

08-18-10 Update: He's baaaaaack.

08-24-10 Update: He's baaaack. But Sidney Rice isn't for a couple of months.

No analysis available.

(+Upside) The former 18th overall pick in 2008 has shown impressive progress through two seasons and ended with 3613 yards and 21 scores against just 12 interceptions last year. And that came against one of the toughest schedules in the NFL and still with little more than Derrick Mason who had considered retirement. The Ravens only ranked 25th in passes thrown but Flacco made the most of them and is seemingly ready to take yet another step up.

The Ravens intend on installing more passing packages for Flacco and of course most importantly they have added Anquan Boldin. Now Flacco will have more than just Mason and he’ll need to be better this year. The Ravens are pitted against the toughest passing schedule in the league. A bad schedule last year actually gets even worse this season. Flacco still has all the weapons of 2009 including Ray Rice and now adds Boldin. That should equate to a season no worse than 2009 and likely even better. His schedule lightens up later in the year, making Flacco a great fantasy backup you may need by then.

The Kansas State star made a splash last year when he stepped up in week nine and became the Bucs' starting quarterback. It is a role he is not relinquishing when he passed for 1855 yards and ten scores in nine games. He’s already been impressive in mini-camps and is showing new maturity and dedication. This is a very young pass attack that may end up with two rookies as starting wideouts. The rushing game also was left alone despite needing significant upgrades but the schedule is one of the lighter ones in the league which should help Freeman continue to progress.

Freeman doesn’t rank as much more than a deep fantasy backup but he’s worth watching this season and should be already owned in dynasty leagues. Freeman also ends up hosting the Lions and Seahawks in weeks 15 and 16.

The quarterback job is open for competition according to OC Dirk Koetter with Luke McCown also in the mix but Garrard should end up winning the job; he was, after all, a Pro Bowler last year. He enters his ninth season in Jacksonville and fifth season as a starter. He’s topped out around 3500 pass yards per season and 15 touchdowns though he adds around 300 rushing yards each year as well.

Garrard has proven to be good but not good enough, but he’ll get yet another chance this year. The problem with the QB competition is not that Garrard won’t win it, it is that they may very well opt to yank him and insert McCown during the season. That risk means you are better off allowing someone else to take Garrard as their backup.

Hasselbeck enters his 12th NFL season and suffers the insult of now competing for the starting job he has held since 2001. Worse yet, his main competition has not thrown a pass in the NFL and yet is being taken very seriously. Hasselbeck has tailed off in the last few seasons to be fair and his 17 interceptions last year went against only 17 touchdowns.

Hasselbeck should remain the starter for the early season but the expectation is that Whitehurst gets playing time at some point in the season. It is a new offense and all new coaching staff so Hasselbeck doesn’t have old relationships to rely on or great familiarity with the scheme. Take Hasselbeck only as a deep backup and be aware he may not be there when you need him. He also has the potential for having both starting wideouts from last year not completely healthy in week one and being forced to use inexperienced or rookie wideouts.

(+Upside) Though Chad Pennington should return to 100% health this season, Henne remains the Dolphins' starting quarterback. He started all but three games last year and ended with 2878 yards and 12 touchdowns against 14 interceptions. In fairness, the second year player was getting much better as the season ended and threw for over 300 yards in three of the final five games. That’s plenty impressive considering the mediocrity that defined his receivers.

Henne faces a tough schedule but will have an actual weapon this year with the addition of Brandon Marshall who can only help. This will always be a team that prefers to run but there are even more questions at tailback than receiver this year. Consider Henne as a decent backup for your fantasy squad—one who plays at home against the Lions in week 16.

(-Risk) The subset of people who believe Jackson can be a starting quarterback in the NFL is minuscule; fortunately for Jackson it includes Brad Childress, who steadfastly refuses to admit his mistake from the 2006 draft. T-Jax is the apparent backup plan should Brett Favre stand up the Vikings, which for a team with Super Bowl aspirations like the Vikings is akin to walking a tightrope with a concrete safety net.

Fantasy owners know better than to bank on Jackson, whose best single-season performance to date works out to a pedestrian 14.6 points per game that barely registers as a fantasy backup. Even if you buy into the Minnesota company line that Jackson will suddenly “get it” after spending last season watching a real NFL quarterback and project across-the-board increases—not to mention a full 16 starts, something Jackson hasn’t even come close to pulling off—his top-end numbers throw him in the middle of the QB2s, where he’s surrounded by guys with legitimate upside (read: they haven’t already proven they’re incapable of NFL success). Worse, if it’s Jackson instead of Favre the fantasy values of the rest of the Vikings offense take monster hits as well.

08-18-10 Update: Favre is back and Jackson takes a back seat yet again.

(+Upside) The Eagles finally parted ways with Donovan McNabb thanks to the emergence of Kolb, who has spent three years watching from the sideline. Kolb was a prolific passer at the University of Houston and now will command the Eagles' offense. He signed a one-year extension worth $12 million that has almost $11 million guaranteed so he is signed through 2011. His body of work in Philly is naturally spotty as the back-up to McNabb but his two starts last season produced 391 yards and two scores against the visiting Saints and then 327 yards and two touchdowns when the Chiefs showed up the next week. Granted – soft defenses visiting but Kolb produced big fantasy numbers those two weeks and the Eagles have a lighter schedule for quarterbacks than they did in 2009.

Kolb has been on the team for three years and knows the offense very well along with the players. He is a pocket passer so there will not be the rushing yards and scores that McNabb once posted but the offense has three young receivers – Brent Celek, DeShaun Jackson and Jeremy Maclin. Kolb has major upside this year and the Eagles staff already expects he’ll replace McNabb without any drop-offs. He’ll likely be drafted as a low-end fantasy starter but could surprise. Even better is that Celek only had three games over 100 yards and two came back-to-back in the only games he played with Kolb starting. DeSean Jackson also topped 100 yards and scored in both contests. Kolb is still a bit of an unknown risk, but his upside far exceeds his downside.

Last year Manning ranked #2 with 4500 passing yards and attempts (571), completions (393) and touchdown passes (33). He’s thrown for more than 4000 yards in ten of his 12 seasons and has never passed for less than 3700 including his rookie season. He’s also passed for more than 30 touchdowns in four of the last five years. There’s no need to think about it – Manning is perhaps the lowest risk player you could draft. He even gets back Anthony Gonzalez and will have even more viable receivers than last year.

Manning comes off a career best season when he passed for 4021 yards and 27 touchdowns thanks in no small part to a suddenly ineffective rushing game that literally saw every back injured. Manning had been consistent with around 3300 passing yards every season and he’s always been good for just over 20 scores. But 2009 saw him excel despite losing Plaxico Burress and Amani Toomer. The youthful wideout crew led by Steve Smith, Mario Manningham and Hakeem Nicks proved good enough to re-energize the passing attack for the Giants.

Even with that fine season, Manning still made only a marginal fantasy starter and in the previous four years he made a much better fantasy backup. Encouraging was how he did not fade late in the season as he had always done. He scored nine times between weeks 13 to 16 before flopping in the season finale. He also threw for around 250 yards or better in that four game stretch. Manning is not going to win your league for you but he probably won’t be the reason you lose either. He’ll be slightly limited late in the season thanks to weather but if can play up to last season’s level, he’ll remain the guy you begrudgingly grab when you waited too long to get a quarterback. If Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw can remain healthy, the Giants won’t likely pass as much this season.

McCown is in competition for the starting QB job after playing for two other teams and only throwing four passes in the last two years. There is almost no chance that he shows up David Garrard in training camp, but he could end up getting playing time during the season if only near the end when the Jags are eliminated from the playoffs. Even if McCown wins the job, he’s not likely to ever offer fantasy starter production.

McCoy comes in as the “winning-est” quarterback in NCAA history but he’ll have to get used to the losing side for at least a while. He actually lands in a decent spot if he can last long enough for the team to improve around him. McCoy doesn’t have the biggest arm but he is very accurate in short to medium range throws and can pass on the run. McCoy has all the intangibles you want – smart, great leader, winning attitude. But he may not play at all this year and even if he does it will come very late season. He has no real value in a redraft league but could develop in a dynasty league though you will need to wait at least one year and possibly two or three before he gets the weapons and seasoning to make a difference for a fantasy team.

(-Risk) McNabb finally changes teams and he should have at least two or three years left to play – maybe more. The Redskins have not had an above-average passing game in decades and it could be argued that McNabb is the best quarterback to play for the Skins since that fateful day twenty years ago when Lawrence Taylor ended Joe Thiesman’s career. McNabb is actually coming off one of his better seasons passing for 3553 yards and 22 touchdowns. He missed two games last year and has only one full 16 game season in six years. Long criticized for not winning the big game, McNabb has won more than his share of every other game and been a top ten fantasy quarterback when healthy.

While he’ll meld in with a new offense, so are all the other players with the addition of Mike Shanahan and his son Kyle to run the offense. Kyle comes off the last two years of directing the Texans offense which proved prolific in passing for 2010. That bodes favorably for McNabb who also gets the benefit of one of the softer schedules in the league for quarterbacks including that week four matchup back in Philly. He’ll help answer the question if the Redskins offense has poor receivers or just needed the right quarterback. Chris Cooley and Fred Davis are proven weapons at tight end and Santana Moss has spent his career miscast as a possession receiver. Devin Thomas and Malcolm Kelly were both among the first wideouts drafted in 2008 and enter their third season.

McNabb is a risk this year and will always be a health concern. But he has a favorable situation and schedule and may fall further in drafts than warranted. He already knows the NFC East and could surprise.

08-29-10 Update: McNabb is now nursing a sprained ankle and may be in jeopardy of missing the week one matchup against the visiting Cowboys. If you draft McNabb, be prepared in case you need another quarterback for the first week.

(+Upside) Moore won over coaches when he stated the final four games of 2009 and threw eight touchdowns in those four weeks against quality opponents of NE, MIN, NYG and NO. Moore was undrafted out of Oregon State and has only thrown a total of 249 passes over the last two years. With Jake Delhomme gone, this is Moore’s team now and he should have no problem holding off the rookie Jimmy Clausen for at least this season. HC John Fox has given lip service to an open competition for quarterback but Clausen will have to be extremely impressive in camp to overcome the experience and ability of the veteran Moore.

Three scores went to Steve Smith in that final stretch for Moore, so he already knows where to find the reliable player. The Panthers have a better than average schedule this year and it is an improvement over last year as well. One of the few factors not favoring Moore is that in week 16 when you may need him most, he’ll be playing in Pittsburgh. Moore is only a backup fantasy quarterback for now but has some upside.

Orton’s first year in Denver was a success in that he had career marks – 3,802 passing yards and 21 touchdowns plus two more scores via runs. He only threw 12 interceptions but his numbers overall were boosted by the 431 yards in week 17 against the visiting Chiefs. He also had the benefit of Brandon Marshall’s 101 receptions for 1120 yards and ten scores. No other receiver had more than 732 yards (Gaffney) or four touchdowns (Stokley). Now that Marshall is gone, Orton has several problems. His best receiver is now Jabar Gaffney or potentially the rookie Demaryius Thomas. The Broncos also acquired Brady Quinn who played in a Charlie Weis offense at Notre Dame. They also drafted Tim Tebow as the eventual heir.

Orton has a slightly worse schedule this year without any above average receivers and has not one but two players looking over his shoulder. Orton should keep his job to start the season but all bets are off if he is the one to finish it. Let someone else gamble with Orton.

(-Risk) Palmer missed most of the 2008 season with an elbow injury and while he claimed to be 100% recovered from the surgery, the jury is still out if the old Palmer can or will ever exist again. Palmer had back-to-back 4000 yard seasons before the injury but last year was held to only 3094 yards. The drop- off was particularly prominent later in the season, as his final seven games had only two efforts exceed 200 passing yards. Palmer did complete 63% of his passes and threw for 11.2 yards per completion in line with his “good years” though. There were just fewer passes and yards.

Palmer’s problems were evident in the playoffs and there are questions from those in the media and scouts about Palmer having lost his edge after knee and elbow surgeries in the past. Until he can prove that he has returned to form, consider Palmer only as a fantasy backup. Palmer clearly missed T.J. Houshmandzadeh last year and adding Antonio Bryant may help.

(-Risk) Rivers set career marks for attempts (486), completions (317) and yards 4254 but fell from 34 scores in 2008 to just 28 last year. Still overall, he had a pretty consistent season from the last and remains in an offense that has become more focused on the pass. The drafting of Ryan Mathews could impact that if he is successful in turning around a rushing offense that ranked only 25th last year. The Chargers were also #1 in the NFL with 932 yards and seven scores thrown to the running backs. LaDainian Tomlinson only claimed 20 of those catches, however, and otherwise the offense remains intact from last year.

Rivers has been a top quarterback for two seasons and should be productive in 2010 with an easier schedule. Holdouts by Vincent Jackson and LT Marcus McNeill are troublesome but Rivers made the previous 2.29 pick in 2005 into a star and will just direct his talents to other players.

08-31-10 Update: Rivers slips one spot because the Jackson situation is not going to be resolved and LT Marcus McNeill remains unsigned. Both holdouts are about to receive three game suspensions (making it a total of six for Jackson).

Ease up, Packer fans; you're like Tom Cruise ripping old flame Mimi Rogers while extolling the virtues of Katie Holmes: both are hot, you chose the young one, now let’s all move on. Fantasy-wise there’s no question Green Bay has upgraded; Rodgers’ last two seasons exceeded any the 4mer QB Whose Name Will Not Be Mentioned has put up since the mid-1990s, and there’s no reason for the party to end. Rodgers‘ receivers return, with Jermichael Finley developing into a serious mismatch problem for opposing defenses; Ryan Grant heads up an underrated ground game; and the offensive line, which served up 50 sacks last year, is both healthier and upgraded via the draft.

What’s not to like? Well, a better offensive line might keep Rodgers from scrambling quite as much, which could take a bite out of his rushing yardage and nine rushing scores over the past two seasons. On the other hand, if Bryan Bulaga isn’t ready to go right out of the gate and Mark Tauscher and Chad Clifton show their age it could be another season of abuse for Rodgers. And after tearing up a soft schedule last year, Rodgers will find the going significantly tougher this time around. Still, those feel like teeny tiny quibbles; in other words, it’s tough to bet against Rodgers setting the pace for fantasy quarterbacks in 2010

The good news here is that Roethlisberger comes off a career best season with 4328 yards – roughly 800 yards over his previous best. He also threw for 26 touchdowns. And all of that really, really doesn’t matter now.

Not only did the Steelers jettison Santonio Holmes, but Roethlisberger has obviously overvalued his Teflon ability to act “inappropriately” and not get caught. He has been suspended by the league for four to six games for violating the conduct code and it will be up to Commissioner Roger Goodell if he believes only four weeks are sufficient. To say the Steelers are thrown into disarray is an understatement. This brings obvious risk for relying on any part of the Steelers passing game and a shortened season for Roethlisberger. What is even worse is that his schedule is brutal once he returns and then ends with three home games during fantasy playoffs – CIN, NYJ and CAR who all had top ranks against quarterbacks last year. It is much too early to call this a lost season of course, but it is starting out in a very challenging manner. The Pittsburgh receivers are going to fall in rankings this year and that’s appropriate considering the risk. Roethlisberger can only be a backup for you now and even when he returns, he faces a tough slate of games.

09-04-10 Update: Big Ben had his suspension reduced to four games which means he misses the easiest games of the year and returns just when it gets tougher.

It was a pass-happy year in the NFL and Romo ended 2009 with 4483 yards to rank third best in the league for a personal best. His 26 touchdowns replicated 2008 and his nine interceptions were not only a career best but came when he had thrown more passes (550) than he ever had before. Romo enjoyed the surprising spark that Miles Austin lent to the passing attack that obviously did not miss a beat with the departure of Terrell Owens. Romo was more consistently good last year and turned in eight games over 300 yards and ten with two or more scores.

The Cowboys passing schedule is lighter than last year and the receiver crew is more experienced. The Cowboys also added Dez Bryant as the high-risk/high- reward wideout they hope becomes the next Randy Moss and not the next Sinorice Moss. The Cowboys offense remains every bit as loaded as 2009 and could be even better if Bryant meets or exceeds expectations. Romo had a great 2009 season but many quarterbacks had career best years as well. That means Romo could come a little cheaper than warranted.

Ryan missed a few games last year because of his toe but still threw the same number of completions. But he fell from 3440 yards in 2008 to only 2916 last year despite increasing his touchdown totals from 16 to 22. Ryan is not expected to have any residual effects from his turf-toe problem and is 100% recovered. Increasing his passing scores by six is perhaps a 1:1 effect of adding Tony Gonzalez to the team since he scored exactly that much. In the end, the Falcons had played a fairly light schedule in 2008 that was marked by a dominating rushing attack and then had a very tough schedule in 2009 along with injuries to Michael Turner.

This season the schedule is only average which is an upgrade from last year and the Falcons expect to rush less and pass more. This should be a noticeable bump in stats for Ryan who now has two seasons under his belt and a healthy squad to take to the field. Gonzalez should have one more season left on his tread and the young wideouts should be even better. Expect a better year from Ryan that should see him rise into the top half of quarterbacks in the league.

By all accounts, Sanchez had a good rookie season if only because of his performance in the playoffs. But Sanchez also commanded an offense that ranked #32 with only 390 pass attempts and naturally came in bottom three in most passing categories. He also had 20 interceptions against only 12 regular season touchdowns. He also ended up blowing out a knee and needing offseason surgery. He is still searching for his first 300-yard game or an effort of three or more passing scores but he is only entering his second season on an offense that has been predicated on the run.

The Jets are expected to pass more this year since they almost had a 60:40 ratio of run to pass and added Santonio Holmes to help out once he is through with his four game suspension. Sanchez has been progressing as expected in rehabbing his knee and is still expected to be 100% for the start of training camp. He has a tough schedule – they did last year – but Sanchez showed definite progress last year and should have at least an incremental increase to his stats.

After struggling with injuries for two seasons, we now finally know what Schaub can do in a full 16 game season. Schaub led the league with 583 passes, 396 completions and 4770 passing yards. His 29 touchdown passes were fourth best. He only lasted for 11 games in each of the previous seasons and now has to be considered among the stud players at his position.

Schaub has roughly the same schedule strength as last year and all the same players return including Owen Daniels who missed half of last season on injured reserve. Schaub also won the MVP of the Pro Bowl because he took it more seriously than the other quarterbacks. Schaub will be one of the first quarterbacks drafted this year and rightfully so but he still carries the injury risk tag. But now, he also wears the “stud” nametag as well.

(+Upside) Credit OC Jimmy Raye for taking former first round picks Smith and Vernon Davis and making them finally perform to expectations. Smith had one full season in 2006 when he only passed for 2890 yards and 16 touchdowns against 16 interceptions and then struggled with consistency, health and production for the next two seasons. Last year Shaun Hill started the year but once Smith stepped in during week seven, he was a new player. Smith passed for at least one score in all but one game including over half his efforts going for multiple scores. He not only brought Vernon Davis to life, he also got the benefit of Michael Crabtree finally showing up. A passing attack that has been sparse on any talent since Terrell Owens left in 2004 now sports an elite tight end and one of the more promising young wideouts. Huge difference.

Smith also enters a second season with the same offensive coordinator for the first time in his NFL career. Smith could be a sleeper of sorts with a decent schedule and an improving offense. Four of his final five games through week 16 are on the road and are likely to require more passing, including the week 16 matchup in St. Louis.

There were definite signs last year that the Lions made the right call in taking Stafford first overall in the 2009 draft: the 241 and one in the streak-ending win over Washington; the five TDs, including the gritty gutty game-winner after being helped off the field, in the win over Cleveland; and a per-game fantasy performance that ranked him just behind Jay Cutler and ahead of Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, and Carson Palmer. And when you consider that all of the above was accomplished with little help from the ground game and one legit wideout (who was nicked up much of the year) in a season that ended six games early due to a knee injury, there is plenty of room for optimism in Motown.

In addition to the typical jump in numbers from Year One to Year Two, Stafford also adds some key weapons in second target Nate Burleson, lightning quick running back Jahvid Best, and pass catching tight end Tony Scheffler. That’s a definite uptick in offensive firepower, so if Stafford can stay healthy behind an offensive line that gave up 43 sacks a year ago and did little to improve... well, at least he’s on the right path. Given where he and the Lions started from, however, it’s still a long, long journey

Tebow will be an interesting one if nothing else. The Florida QB won a Heisman and a couple of national championships and he has the typical NFL size, a big arm, and all of the intangibles plus uncommon athleticism for the position; he certainly has a good base to work from. But he was a running quarterback as well, which was highly effective in college and yet never seems to translate to the NFL. Tebow will spend at least one year seasoning on the bench and working on changing from a scrambling QB playing in a spread offense to a more traditional NFL signal caller. He has no value in a redraft league but is worth a gamble in a dynasty league if you can take up a roster spot for a year and maybe two.

Vick is unhappy being the #2 in Philly but he has no chance of starting short of an injury to Kevin Kolb. Vick will continue to be used in wildcat formations but he only passed for 86 yards and a score last year while adding just 95 yards on 24 runs with two touchdowns. He’s reasonable insurance for Kolb owners but unlikely to have fantasy relevance this year.

New HC Pete Carroll has deemed the Seahawks' quarterback spot open for competition—and then only added Whitehurst to the mix. The 6-4 ex-Clemson star was drafted by the Chargers in 2006 and sitting behind Drew Brees and Philip Rivers meant he has never actually thrown a pass in the NFL though Charlie has scored a rushing touchdown on one of his two career carries. The expectation is that Matt Hasselbeck will hold onto the starting job at least at first but that Whitehurst will at least see some playing time this year. It all adds up to a less than attractive fantasy situation.

Bud Adams told Jeff Fisher that he needed to start Vince Young during the bye in week seven as the Titans season swirled rapidly down the drain. For once, the owner knew more than the coach. Young came back and won nearly every game while passing for 2199 yards and 12 touchdowns over ten games – a pace that would result in 3500 yards and 19 touchdowns over a full season. That’s much better than the Old Vince, who last had a full season in 2007 and only passed for 2546 yards and nine touchdowns. Young ranked 3rd in the NFL with 281 rush yards and scored twice more via a run.

Even after four seasons in the league, Young is only 27 years old and still developing. He has improved from his earlier form and now has connected with wide receivers – something he rarely did in the first years. He’s still a much better fantasy backup than a starter outside of very big leagues. He’ll get some passing points and throw in some runs as well. He should be one of the earlier backups taken but this offense will never be a dominant passing team.