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FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 4
2010
NYJ at BUF* CIN at CLE* IND at JAC* CHI at NYG
SEA at STL* BAL at PIT* HOU at OAK* NE at MIA*
CAR at NO* DEN at TEN* WAS at PHI DAL, KC
*updated DET at GB* SF at ATL ARI at SD* MIN, TB

Prediction: IND 30, JAC 13

Update: Donald Brown continues to miss practice with a hamstring strain and may not play this week. I am deleting him from the projections. Pierre Garcon has also not practiced and should not be counted on this week. Austin Collie should take his place again this week. Collie has been placed on the injury report because of his heel and was limited but he's expected to be good to go.

Update #2: Pierre Garcon and Donald Brown both missed practice on Friday and are not expected to play. Joseph Addai did not practice on Friday and is listed as questionable. Addai's has not been discussed by the coaches as if he is going to miss this week and he has been nursing a sore knee for a couple of weeks. I am going to lower his projections if only because he has more risk this week but he may still be active and play as he did last week. Mike Hart should have some playing time this week and could potentially replace Addai if needed.

The Colts have strung together two impressive wins since losing the opener and now head to Jacksonville where everything has suddenly stopped working. The Colts won two close games over the Jags last season. At home in the season opener it was 14-12 and later in the season they won 35-31 in Jacksonville. Should not be that close this time.

Indianapolis Colts (2-1)
Homefield: Lucas Oil Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @HOU L 24-34 10 CIN --
2 NYG W 38-14 11 @NE --
3 @DEN W 27-13 12 SD --
4 @JAC -- 13 DAL --
5 KC -- 14 @TEN --
6 @WAS -- 15 JAC --
7 Bye - 16 @OAK --
8 HOU -- 17 TEN --
9 @PHI -- - - -
Colts Report | Statistics | Roster
INDIANAPOLIS at JAC Rush Catch Pass
QB Peyton Manning - - 310,3
RB Joseph Addai 50 10 -
RB Donald Brown 30 10 -
TE Dallas Clark - 50 -
WR Reggie Wayne - 110,2 -
WR Austin Collie - 100,1 -
WR Blair White - 20 -
PK Adam Vinatieri 3 FG 3 XP -
Pregame Notes: The Colts should reach their week 7 bye with a 6-1 record and the rest of the schedule is shaping up well outside of road trips to Philly and New England. The Colts are still looking to get more from the running backs but these next few weeks should be far kinder to Joseph Addai. The Colts lost their opener but that may have just relieved the pressure of being unbeaten. These Colts are already locks for the playoffs.

QUARTERBACK: Peyton Manning has thrown for three scores in every game this year and never had less than 255 yards. He's as consistent and productive as he has ever been. Manning threw for 308 yards and four scores in Jacksonville last year. The Jaguars have allowed the last two opponents three passing scores and never less than 291 yards.

Sure, start Manning.

RUNNING BACKS: Joseph Addai was held to only 29 yards on 13 carries in Denver and only had two catches for ten yards. The Colts were too busy bombing the broken down Denver secondary though and Addai had 92 rush yards just the week before. Donald Brown had a big game of 69 yards on 16 carries and a score when the Giants came to town and there was plenty of trash time but last week only managed seven runs for 12 yards.

Addai and Brown combined for 75 rushing yards and one score in Jacksonville. Addai added five catches for 35 yards.

These Jaguars are no different. They have allowed three rushing scores but not much rushing yardage because the passing has been much easier. Expect moderate yardage but one score for Addai.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Needless to say, it is a good time to be a Colts wideout. Ask Blair White who was promoted up from the practice squad for the game and had three catches for 27 yards and a touchdown. Austin Collie was already having a great year but when he moved over to replace the injured Pierre Garcon while being covered by a rookie corner who was replacing a starter himself, Collie exploded. Manning threw 16 passes to him that resulted in 12 catches for 171 yards and two touchdowns. Reggie Wayne finally had a "quiet " game of 65 yards on four catches after opening with a score and 95 yards in each game.

Wayne exploded for 162 yards on ten receptions with one score in Jacksonville. No other wideout had more than 24 yards. Have to love the chance for Wayne and Collie to explode again this week. Garcon is likely still out with a bad hamstring and Anthony Gonzalez will miss the next month with a right ankle sprain.

TIGHT ENDS: Dallas Clark only totaled four catches for 39 yards on the Jags last year and comes off the Denver game with just 44 yards on five catches. He's always a safe play but may not be needed with the weak corners of the Jaguars.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points IND 1 31 1 4 10 6
Preventing Fantasy Points JAC 32 21 30 20 14 22
Advantage(+) or Disadvantage(-) IND 31 -10 29 16 4 16


Jacksonville Jaguars (1-2)
Homefield: J'ville Municipal Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 DEN W 24-17 10 HOU --
2 @SD L 13-38 11 CLE --
3 PHI L 3-28 12 @NYG --
4 IND -- 13 @TEN --
5 @BUF -- 14 OAK --
6 TEN -- 15 @IND --
7 @KC -- 16 WAS --
8 @DAL -- 17 @HOU --
9 Bye - - - -
Jaguars Report | Statistics | Roster
JACKSONVILLE at IND Rush Catch Pass
QB David Garrard - - 240,1
RB Maurice Jones-Drew 80 10 -
TE Marcedes Lewis - - -
WR Kassim Osgood - 20 -
WR Mike Sims-Walker - 80 -
WR Mike Thomas - 80,1 -
PK Josh Scobee 2 FG 1 XP -

Pregame Notes: The season started well with the win over the Broncos but the offense has disappeared and the defense cannot hope to keep opponents at bay. Whatever magic this offense had was used up and in two weeks the team has only one touchdown. There are the constant questions pertaining to changing quarterbacks and for now HC Jack Del Rio is trying to let the ship right itself. But it all suddenly came unwound and facing the Colts is not where it is likely to turn around.

QUARTERBACK: David Garrard has posted anemic passing stats in the two losses and at home against the Eagles only completed 13 of 30 for 105 yards and an interception. He was picked off four times in San Diego. For a team with an exciting three touchdown start to the season, Garrard has just fallen apart. His only saving grace is that there is no one else on the roster worthy of trying out. The Jags just picked up Trent Edwards but he'll be no competition.

Garrard passed for 223 yards and three scores when the Colts visited in 2009.

If Garrard can break 200 yards and one score, he'll be ecstatic.

RUNNING BACKS: For the first time ever, Maurice Jones-Drew has opened his season and gone three weeks without a touchdown. His yardage has been marginal with two home games coming in just short of 100 yards but he is not being used as a receiver with only three catches over the last two games. He has minimal sharing and accounts for nearly all the running back stats but the lethargic passing attack has assured Jones-Drew that he'll meet up with every defender before he ever breaks through the line of scrimmage.

Jones-Drew rushed for 110 yards and a score versus the Colts last year. He added a touchdown via a reception. But this is a new year and while the Colts were trashed by Arian Foster in week one, they have controlled the run since and not allowed a rushing score. He's worth starting from his upside but continues to struggle thanks to his offense falling apart around him.

WIDE RECEIVERS: First Mike Thomas had 89 yards in the season opener while Mike Sims-Walker was blanked. Then Sims-Walker had 10 catches for 105 yards and a score in San Diego but Thomas only managed 43 yards on four catches. Now both of them have disappeared after turning a shared 14 targets into only four catches for 41 yards against the Eagles.

Sims-Walker had six receptions for 64 yards and a score against the Colts last year while Mike Thomas had two catches for 20 yards and a touchdown as well.

I like a bounce back of sorts here with the reeling Jaguars putting up a fight. I like both Sims-Walker and Thomas to have at least decent yardage if not a score.

TIGHT ENDS: Like the wideouts, Marcedes Lewis scored twice in the season opener, then had nice yardage (5-70) in the second game and then only three catches for 15 yards last Sunday.

Lewis gained 53 yards on four catches against the visiting Colts last year. He'll need to come up big to help out if the wideouts are bottled up.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points JAC 22 29 26 13 23 24
Preventing Fantasy Points IND 16 27 29 1 17 2
Advantage(+) or Disadvantage(-) JAC -6 -2 3 -12 -6 -22

WEEK 4
2010
NYJ at BUF CIN at CLE IND at JAC CHI at NYG
SEA at STL BAL at PIT HOU at OAK NE at MIA
CAR at NO DEN at TEN WAS at PHI DAL, KC
  DET at GB SF at ATL ARI at SD MIN, TB
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