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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 5
2010
*TB at CIN GB at WAS *STL at DET *PHI at SF
*ATL at CLE JAC at BUF *NO at ARI *MIN at NYJ
*NYG at HOU *DEN at BAL *SD at OAK MIA, NE
*UPDATED *KC at IND *CHI at CAR TEN at DAL PIT, SEA

Prediction: JAC 20, BUF 24

The 2-2 Jaguars come off an upset win over the Colts and head to only their second road game this year. The Bills remain 0-4 with a very soft defense and a struggling offense that is already jettisoning players in trades. Hard as it may seem, I like the Bills for the upset playing at home against the Jaguars who were plenty sluggish until they trapped the Colts. It is possible that Trent Edwards could help the Jaguars prepare for the Bills, but that assumes he ever understood the new offense.

The Jaguars won 18-15 when the Bill were the visitor in 2009.

Jacksonville Jaguars (2-2)
Homefield: J'ville Municipal Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 DEN W 24-17 10 HOU --
2 @SD L 13-38 11 CLE --
3 PHI L 3-28 12 @NYG --
4 IND W 31-28 13 @TEN --
5 @BUF -- 14 OAK --
6 TEN -- 15 @IND --
7 @KC -- 16 WAS --
8 @DAL -- 17 @HOU --
9 Bye - - - -
Jaguars Report | Statistics | Roster
JACKSONVILLE at BUF Rush Catch Pass
QB David Garrard 10 - 180,1
RB Maurice Jones-Drew 90,1 20 -
TE Marcedes Lewis - 40,1 -
WR Mike Sims-Walker - 40 -
WR Mike Thomas - 70 -
PK Josh Scobee 2 FG 2 XP -
Pregame Notes: The big win over the Colts covered up some lasting questions that have not gone away - where is the passing attack on this offense? Maurice Jones-Drew finally had a big game but he still only has one rushing touchdown. David Garrard is on the hot seat with Trent Edwards now on the team and reading the playbook. Some expect a change there. The win over the Colts was great but this is a team that still has many more questions than answers.

QUARTERBACK: David Garrard at least bought himself some time by throwing for 163 yards and two touchdowns on the Colts and even ran in a third score but he's been errant on throws and unable to move the team when it falls behind this season. Trent Edwards is no treat of course, but at least he makes it look like HC Jack Del Rio is still trying to find a solution because he too is on a very hot seat.

The Bills allow multiple scores to opponents but Garrard is hardly Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers or even Mark Sanchez. On the road, Garrard is a risk to expect anything more than one passing score and around 170 yards.

Garrard passed for 215 yards and a score against the Bills last year.

RUNNING BACKS: Maurice Jones-Drew recorded his first 100 yard game of the season when he rushed 26 times for 105 yards against the visiting Colts and scored on both a run and a catch. Prior to that, Jones-Drew had not scored and been locked around 90 yards in home games and then was manhandled in San Diego where he only had 12 carries for 31 yards.

Jones-Drew also tweaked his ankle last week but continued to play and is not expected to miss time.

He'll go against a defense that has already allowed six touchdowns to running backs and over 100 rushing yards to most opponents. The problem is that Garrard is bringing in the least effective passing offense and that won't help Jones-Drew avoid defensive focus on every play. The history of the Bills says this is a good matchup and Jones-Drew is obviously capable but this is a desperate Bills team that is at home and the Jags are on the road for only the second time,

Jones-Drew rushed for 66 yards on 25 carries and scored once on the Bill in 2009.

WIDE RECEIVERS: The question without an adequate answer continues to be " where in the heck does Mike Sims-Walker disappear to?" For the second time this year, he had no catches and only had one pass thrown his way. He has the team best performance of 10 catches for 105 yards and a score in San Diego and then literally only two more receptions in the other three games played. Judging by the minimal targets, at least some of the blame lays with Garrard.

Mike Thomas had been effective in three of the four games though he still has yet to catch a touchdown pass and his two best games (6-89 and 5-68) happened while Sims-Walker was being blanked. Tiquan Underwood had three catches for 41 yards last week.

Until Sims-Walker gives some credible clarity for disappearing or the coaches explain it, he cannot be considered for any fantasy duty. His one good game has proven to be a huge aberration so far.

Sims-Walker caught eight passes for 91 yards and a score versus the Bills last season. I'll project for the two main receivers but they are not attractive to rely on for now. For what it is worth, Sims-Walker's only decent game was the only road game.

TIGHT ENDS: Marcedes Lewis is rarely good for much more than a few catches but his season best was five catches for 70 yards in the only other road game. And Lewis leads the team with three touchdown catches while going against the #31 defense against the tight end position. Lewis is a decent chance for some points this week if you need to cover your starting tight end's bye week.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points JAC 15 20 21 14 21 21
Preventing Fantasy Points BUF 21 28 18 31 29 15
Advantage(+) or Disadvantage(-) JAC 6 8 -3 17 8 -6


Buffalo Bills (0-4)
Homefield: Ralph Wilson Stadium
AstroTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 MIA L 10-15 10 DET --
2 @GB L 7-34 11 @CIN --
3 @NE L 30-38 12 PIT --
4 NYJ L 14-38 13 @MIN --
5 JAC -- 14 CLE --
6 Bye - 15 @MIA --
7 @BAL -- 16 NE --
8 @KC -- 17 @NYJ --
9 CHI -- - - -
Bills Report | Statistics | Roster
BUFFALO vs JAC Rush Catch Pass
QB Ryan Fitzpatrick 30 - 250,2
RB C.J. Spiller 40 30 -
RB Fred Jackson 40,1 - -
WR Lee Evans - 70,1 -
WR Steve Johnson - 60,1 -
WR David Nelson - 50 -
PK Rian Lindell 1 FG 3 XP -

Pregame Notes: This week is the best shot at a win the Bills will get probably until week ten when the Lions show up. The schedule has been brutal so far and it is not getting any kinder after this week. The Bills just shipped out Marshawn Lynch to the Seahawks in exchange for a couple of conditional draft picks and that actually can help to simplify the backfield and stop showcasing trade bait.

QUARTERBACK: The switch to Ryan Fitzpatrick has made a difference. While Trent Edwards only logged one score in two games with no more than 139 passing yards, Fitzpatrick has scored twice in each of his starts and averaged around 190 yards while facing the Patriots on the road and hosting the Jets.

That makes this week very interesting since he now faces the #32 defense against quarterbacks and wide receivers. It may never get any better for Fitzpatrick than this week. If you had to take a chance on a quarterback to fill in for a starter on bye, taking the guy facing the worst secondary is not a bad plan. The Jaguars have never allowed less than 291 passing yards in a game so far.

Fitzpatrick was the quarterback in week 11 and threw for 297 yards and one score in Jacksonville.

RUNNING BACKS: The trade of Marshawn Lynch clears the way for more carries for both C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson. This has been a very lackluster rushing attack with only one touchdown scored and no runner with more than 64 yards. The rookie Spiller has only 14 carries for 49 yards over his first four games - a light load for the first running back drafted last April.

The Jaguars have not allowed any runner to gain more than 82 rushing yards but mainly because they were getting ravaged via the pass instead. The Jags have already surrendered five rushing scores on the season. No reason to start either Spiller or Jackson unless desperate but there should be one score on the ground come from his unit.

The Bills combined for only 53 yards on 16 carries against the Jags last year.

WIDE RECEIVERS: With Fitzpatrick as the starter, these wideouts have been better. Lee Evans had 54 yards on five catches in week three but then was culled out, tied up and left for dead by the Jets. Steve Johnson has scored in both games and David Nelson had a team high four grabs for 75 yards last week. There is nothing huge going on here yet but this is the week with a very weak secondary showing up. That is no guarantee but it will be as good as Lee Evans might get. The Jaguars have already allowed six receiving scores by wideouts and five big performances generally by the opponent's #1 player.

Terrell Owens had his best game of the year when he caught nine passes for 197 yards and one score against the Jaguars last year.

It is a huge risk, but I like Lee Evans in this game and even Steve Johnson could show up as well. The Bills rarely use tight ends as receivers so whatever happens that is good happens to the wideouts. A risk but a calculated one this week.

TIGHT ENDS: No fantasy value.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points BUF 24 30 18 31 27 31
Preventing Fantasy Points JAC 32 21 32 26 8 14
Advantage(+) or Disadvantage(-) BUF 8 -9 14 -5 -19 -17

WEEK 5
2010
TB at CIN GB at WAS STL at DET PHI at SF
ATL at CLE JAC at BUF NO at ARI MIN at NYJ
NYG at HOU DEN at BAL SD at OAK MIA, NE
  KC at IND CHI at CAR TEN at DAL PIT, SEA
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