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FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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Game Predictions Summary

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WEEK 5
2010
*TB at CIN GB at WAS *STL at DET *PHI at SF
*ATL at CLE JAC at BUF *NO at ARI *MIN at NYJ
*NYG at HOU *DEN at BAL *SD at OAK MIA, NE
*UPDATED *KC at IND *CHI at CAR TEN at DAL PIT, SEA

Prediction: KC 20, IND 24

Update: Austin Collie has been limping around and not practicing because of his foot. He may end up as a game time decision and I am lowering his projections.

Update #2: Collie remains a game time decision so make sure he is playing if you need hi, Pierre Garcon may get some playing time if Collie cannot play.

The lone undefeated team in the NFL goes to face the 2-2 Colts and yet they are a nine point underdog. That's not much respect for a new offense led by Charlie Weis who also happens to know about this Colts team. But a reality is that the Chiefs have been fortunate in many ways and only scored 16 points in Cleveland on their only road game so far.

Kansas City Chiefs (3-0)
Homefield: Arrowhead Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 SD W 21-14 10 @DEN --
2 @CLE W 16-14 11 ARI --
3 SF W 31-10 12 @SEA --
4 Bye - 13 DEN --
5 @IND -- 14 @SD --
6 @HOU -- 15 @STL --
7 JAC -- 16 TEN --
8 BUF -- 17 OAK --
9 @OAK -- - - -
Chiefs Report | Statistics | Roster
KANSAS CITY at IND Rush Catch Pass
QB Matt Cassel - - 190,1
RB Jamaal Charles 90 20 -
RB Thomas Jones 50,1 - -
TE Tony Moeaki - 30,1 -
WR Dexter McCluster - 40 -
WR Chris Chambers - 30 -
WR Dwayne Bowe - 40 -
PK Ryan Succop 2 FG 2 XP -
Pregame Notes: The Chiefs come off their bye week still looking for respect despite owning the only undefeated record in the league and one aspect that has not been given its due is the defense that has not allowed more than 14 points to an opponent. That's almost certain to go to the wayside this week but these Chiefs are legitimately improved and when a break or two goes their way - they can be very surprising.

QUARTERBACK: After two anemic games, Matt Cassel posted three scores and 250 yards on the visiting 49ers in week three and that came none to late for a team already worried about the state of the passing game. Prior to the last game, Cassel had been limited to mostly pitch and catch with the rookie tight end but he finally had minor success with the wide receivers. This week will be a good test to see if Cassel really is improving or not. In games where the running of Jamal Charles and Thomas Jones is not enough, the Chiefs have to pass with more effectiveness.

No secret here - the Chiefs are going to try to run as much as they can for as long as they can. That makes Cassel a bad bet for fantasy numbers this week against a secondary that has limited all but one team to sub-200 yards and one score each.

RUNNING BACKS: With a 3-0 record, the Chiefs are not about to make any changes to the backfield rotation despite the screams and cries of every Jamaal Charles owner. Thomas Jones is the starter and even had one score on the year but has rushed for 217 yards on 52 carries with a 4.1 yard average thanks mostly to the 49ers. Charles has 34 carries for 238 yards and a 7.0 yard average. Neither player has more than one or two catches per game other than Charles at home against the 49ers.

The Colts have been hurt by the run and the Chiefs will be bringing exactly that. The Colts also just lost SS Melvin Bulitt to IR and he was replacing Bob Sanders so there should be some gains to be made by the duo. I like one score for Jones on a short run and decent yardage by Charles who should break a run or two. The split makes it hard to consider either that reliable.

WIDE RECEIVERS: This is the trouble area of the offense that has just never taken off this year in the new offense. Chris Chambers has yet to gain more than 33 yards in a game and is playing exactly the same as he did in San Diego when he was canned. Dwayne Bowe finally scored thanks to a 45-yard touchdown catch from a fake end around but even with that catch he has topped out at 61 yards in a game. Dexter McCluster had 69 yards and a score on his three catches but only had two receptions for nine yards over his first two weeks.

The Colts have been burned by wideouts this year but not from a team like the Chiefs on the road. Expect just marginal stats from this crew until the offense starts to gain some rhythm and chemistry with the wideouts.

TIGHT ENDS: The rookie Tony Moeaki has been the most consistent receiver for the Chiefs and his two scores lead all receivers. Moeaki has only played three games and not caught more than five passes in a game yet but he's become the primary outlet for Cassel and what continues to be a struggling pass attack.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points KC 27 7 31 16 17 6
Preventing Fantasy Points IND 24 25 26 1 18 3
Advantage(+) or Disadvantage(-) KC -3 18 -5 -15 1 -3


Indianapolis Colts (2-2)
Homefield: Lucas Oil Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @HOU L 24-34 10 CIN --
2 NYG W 38-14 11 @NE --
3 @DEN W 27-13 12 SD --
4 @JAC L 28-31 13 DAL --
5 KC -- 14 @TEN --
6 @WAS -- 15 JAC --
7 Bye - 16 @OAK --
8 HOU -- 17 TEN --
9 @PHI -- - - -
Colts Report | Statistics | Roster
INDIANAPOLIS vs KC Rush Catch Pass
QB Peyton Manning - - 270,3
RB Joseph Addai 80 10 -
TE Dallas Clark - 60,1 -
WR Reggie Wayne - 130,2 -
WR Austin Collie - 40 -
PK Adam Vinatieri 1 FG 3 XP -

Pregame Notes: The Colts are proving that even one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time is not enough to make up for the rest of the team (then again, Peyton's Dad had that chiseled into the fireplace mantle back in the 70's). The loss to the Jaguars was particularly unsettling since no one knew they have an offense until that game. With a freshly improved Texans team in the division that is already 3-1 and has the tiebreaker over the Colts, Manning and company cannot afford to let anything get away.

QUARTERBACK: It has not been Peyton Manning's fault when the Colts lose. He has been as prolific as ever, passing for an NFL-best 11 touchdowns over the first four weeks with only one sack. He has topped 325 yards three times and is on a pace to shatter yardage records were he to continue. That's not a bad bet this year either if the defense is going to cough up 30+ points for half the opponents.

The Chiefs have not failed to yield at least one passing score to each opponent and none approach Manning's potential other than Philip Rivers (298, 2 TD) in the season opener. The Chiefs are good against the run so expect Manning to have yet another big game.

RUNNING BACKS: Donald Brown was out last week with a hamstring strain but he had only one game of any note so far. I will assume he is out until he has full practices. Joseph Addai is only average with just two scores on the year and no games with 100 rushing yards but he's a consistent fantasy scorer when you throw in a few catches each week.

Addai has been banged up as well with a sore knee but played in Jacksonville where he gained 63 yards on 16 carries and ran in his only two scores on the year. There is a chance of a score here, but more likely Addai will just add some yardage to the pot and call it good.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Pierre Garcon was inactive last week with a hamstring issue but the Colts are deep with talent anyway. Reggie Wayne chipped in a mere 15 catches for 196 yards in Jacksonville and Austin Collie has scored in every game played this season. He has two monster yardage efforts and two small but all of them have that touchdown.

The Chiefs have been good against wideouts but have not faced any of note so far. No reason to expect less than a solid showing by Wayne and Collie. I'll add Garcon in if he is healthy but Blair White is stuck around 20 yards per game as his replacement. Even Legedu Naanee had 110 yards and a score on this secondary.

TIGHT ENDS: Dallas Clark has scored in three of four games this year and is averaging seven catches per game. The Chiefs gave up 76 yards and a score to Antonio Gates earlier this season. Clark is almost that good. He's an automatic start every week.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points IND 1 27 2 3 15 17
Preventing Fantasy Points KC 17 16 10 23 2 2
Advantage(+) or Disadvantage(-) IND 16 -11 8 20 -13 -15

WEEK 5
2010
TB at CIN GB at WAS STL at DET PHI at SF
ATL at CLE JAC at BUF NO at ARI MIN at NYJ
NYG at HOU DEN at BAL SD at OAK MIA, NE
  KC at IND CHI at CAR TEN at DAL PIT, SEA
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