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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 6
2010
*CLE at PIT *BAL at NE *SEA at CHI *IND at WAS
*NO at TB KC at HOU *OAK at SF *TEN at JAC
*MIA at GB *DET at NYG NYJ at DEN ARI, BUF
*Updated *SD at STL ATL at PHI *DAL at MIN CAR, CIN

Prediction: KC 24, HOU 20

The Chiefs finally fell from the ranks of the unbeaten but still played the Colts tough in Indianapolis. The Texans are at home after getting waxed by the Giants. The Texans are favored by five but this NFL is upside down every week so the Chiefs have a good shot here. They'll bring the one thing that the Texans lack - a defense.

Kansas City Chiefs (3-1)
Homefield: Arrowhead Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 SD W 21-14 10 @DEN --
2 @CLE W 16-14 11 ARI --
3 SF W 31-10 12 @SEA --
4 Bye - 13 DEN --
5 @IND L 9-19 14 @SD --
6 @HOU -- 15 @STL --
7 JAC -- 16 TEN --
8 BUF -- 17 OAK --
9 @OAK -- - - -
Chiefs Report | Statistics | Roster
KANSAS CITY at HOU Rush Catch Pass
QB Matt Cassel - - 260,2
RB Jamaal Charles 80,1 30 -
RB Thomas Jones 30 - -
TE Tony Moeaki - 60,1 -
WR Dexter McCluster - 60 -
WR Chris Chambers - 30 -
WR Dwayne Bowe - 60,1 -
PK Ryan Succop 1 FG 3 XP -
Pregame Notes: The Chiefs may have lost a game but their easy schedule continues. For the next four weeks, they'll play nothing but bad defenses - HOU, JAC, BUF and OAK. The setup is that the Chiefs are going to rule the AFC West at this rate, have a great record and then get waxed in their first game in the playoffs because they have played what is turning out to be a very soft schedule. The Texans are no push over this week, but neither are the Chiefs anymore.

QUARTERBACK: The bad news here is that while Matt Cassel has thrown for four touchdowns this year, none of them came in a road game. Away from Kansas City, Cassel has yet to throw for more than 176 yards and has really no fantasy value aside from the one tilt with the 49ers. The drops by receivers are egregious and yet he could be more accurate. But he has yet to throw more than 30 times in a game.

The good news is that the Texans have a secondary that makes everyone look like Peyton Manning. The only time an opponent failed to record multiple passing scores was when McNabb threw for 426 yards. No team has passed for less than 278 yards on the Texans and that was Bruce Gradkowski. This is as good of a matchup as Cassel will see but as always it will depend on game situation and the success of the running game. But if you had to play Cassel one week - this would be it.

RUNNING BACKS: Thomas Jones is still the starter for the Chiefs despite weekly wailing from the fantasy community but he has declining in carries each game. He only carried eight times for 19 yards versus the Colts while Jamaal Charles turned in 87 yards on 16 runs. It is no secret that Charles is far more productive, but HC Todd Haley is apparently against rapid change of any kind.

The Texans have never allowed more than 67 rushing yards to any runner largely because everyone was so busy passing on their soft secondary. They have allowed six scores to running backs and the Chiefs will look to establish the run more than previous teams. But it will be split up and a touchdown could end up with either player. Based on the trends and such, this should be a very good game for Charles and and likely marginal for Jones but that is up to Todd Haley.

WIDE RECEIVERS: This has been a very unproductive group though in fairness, the Chiefs have targeted any single wideout more than five times only once this season. Not a lot of passes this way because of the success of the rushing game. Chris Chambers has yet to produce more than 33 yards and Dwayne Bowe's one decent showing in San Francisco was just eclipsed when he flat out dropped a pass against the Colts in the end zone. There is every reason to run screaming from these wideouts but they are facing the worst secondary in the league. This will be a test to see if literally anyone can catch passes on the Texans.

The risk of them doing nothing is very high. But this is also the Alamo for Dwayne Bowe. If he cannot turn in a decent game this week, then there is no reason for anyone to have him on their roster.

TIGHT ENDS: In most weeks, Tony Moeaki will be the lead receiver for the Chiefs even though he has never had more than 58 yards in a game. But he is targeted as much as any receiver and has the team lead with two receiving scores. The Texans just happen to be bad against tight ends as well so pencil in a third touchdown for Moeaki.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points KC 29 8 31 15 16 15
Preventing Fantasy Points HOU 31 22 31 31 24 10
Advantage(+) or Disadvantage(-) KC 2 14 0 16 8 -5


Houston Texans (3-2)
Homefield: Reliant Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 IND W 34-24 10 @JAC --
2 @WAS W 30-27 11 @NYJ --
3 DAL L 13-27 12 TEN --
4 @OAK W 31-24 13 @PHI --
5 NYG L 10-34 14 BAL --
6 KC -- 15 @TEN --
7 Bye - 16 @DEN --
8 @IND -- 17 JAC --
9 SD --   - -
Texans Report | Statistics | Roster
HOUSTON vs KC Rush Catch Pass
QB Matt Schaub - - 260,1
RB Arian Foster 80,1 30 -
TE Owen Daniels - 40 -
WR Andre' Johnson - 100,1 -
WR Kevin Walter - 50 -
PK Neil Rackers 2 FG 2 XP -

Pregame Notes: The wheels fell off the wagon again when the NFC East came to town. The Texans were trashed by the Giants from the very start and what had been a highly productive offense went nearly silent. Trash time yards and a score helped but it was a rude awakening for the Texans. That is a little troubling too since the meat of their schedule is coming up after the week seven bye and reaching that at 3-3 is going to erase the confidence that a 3-1 start spawned.

QUARTERBACK: Matt Schaub was inconsistent this year mostly because either Aaron Foster took over a game or he didn't and forced Schaub to throw more. But last week Foster was shut down and injured and for the first time this year, Schaub had no scores. He ended with only 196 yards and both an interception and lost fumble. That could be just "one of those games" but aside from his week two game in Washington, Schaub has been much less than 2009.

This week he goes against a secondary that has been very effective and only allowed four passing scores over the first four games. No team has thrown for more than 298 yards on them and that includes Philip RIvers and Peyton Manning (244). Consider Schaub a moderate play this week with just one score and mid-200's yardage. He could do more, but he'd be the first. And he'd be better than Peyton Manning.

RUNNING BACKS: To the horror of every smug Arian Foster owner, their super back went flop last week when he only gained 25 yards on 11 carries and just two more yards on two catches. He was injured right before the halftime but that doesn't explain the stats, only the lack of carries. He came back in the game late just to boost his production to that level. He still remains the #1 rusher in the league though and HC Gary Kubiak said that Foster has a good chance to play in this game. Foster himself said it felt better during the game which is why he went back in.

The Chiefs have been very good against the run allowing only two rushing touchdowns this season and never more than 78 yards to a runner. Foster should be able to produce at least moderate rushing yards but can do himself a big favor by his role as a receiver. For whatever reason, he has only been used extensively in that capacity in road games and yet been very effective. Given the Chiefs tough defense, expect at least a few receptions this week. If Foster gets stuffed at all again this week, then the Texans have a big problem.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Andre' Johnson was a game time decision last week but played and did well. He had no catches by halftime but in the later trash time, ended up with 95 yards on five receptions after being targeted 13 times. Johnson said he had no soreness from playing so he should be even healthier this week. Kevin Walter has gone quiet for two straight weeks now and Jacoby Jones was held out because of his calf which makes Walter's poor showing (2-24) even worse.

This week the Texans face a secondary that has only allowed three passing scores and only one wideout has managed to gain more than 75 yards on them. This game smacks of Andre Johnson getting an obscene amount of targets and he is the only receiver here that is a worthwhile fantasy start. Expect Johnson to once again be the clear leader.

David Anderson will once again take the place of Jones if he cannot play but that has never resulted in more than one catch.

TIGHT ENDS: Owen Daniels comes off a season best game but that was only 45 yards on three catches and he still has yet to score a touchdown. The Chiefs are a bit weaker against tight ends than their ranking suggests but no reason to expect Owens to do more than his incremental increase each week.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points HOU 19 1 13 21 10 27
Preventing Fantasy Points KC 12 13 14 14 5 2
Advantage(+) or Disadvantage(-) HOU -7 12 1 -7 -5 -25

WEEK 6
2010
CLE at PIT BAL at NE SEA at CHI IND at WAS
NO at TB KC at HOU OAK at SF TEN at JAC
MIA at GB DET at NYG NYJ at DEN ARI, BUF
  SD at STL ATL at PHI DAL at MIN CAR, CIN
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