The Huddle on Facebook Facebook   The Huddle on Twitter Twitter   The Huddle Mobile Mobile Welcome, Guest. You are not logged in.JOINHELP
HOME FANTASY DRAFT KIT IN SEASON ARTICLES NEWS STATS FORUMS TEAMS PLAYERS NFL DRAFT NFL ABOUT myHuddle

FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
Sortable Player Projections
Game Predictions Summary

Projections by Team
Print this page Print 
WEEK 6
2010
*CLE at PIT *BAL at NE *SEA at CHI *IND at WAS
*NO at TB KC at HOU *OAK at SF *TEN at JAC
*MIA at GB *DET at NYG NYJ at DEN ARI, BUF
*Updated *SD at STL ATL at PHI *DAL at MIN CAR, CIN

Prediction: NO 23, TB 20

Update: Mike Williams was limited on Wednesday and then held out of practice on Thursday to rest his foot but is still expected to play this week. Pierre Thomas still has not practiced this week and I am changing the projections. He has not been ruled out officially but it is looking less likely. Ladell Betts and Chris Ivory will take his place if needed and split the load with neither runner being an attractive start in this road game.

Update #2: Mike Williams is now considered a game time decision after returning to limited work on Friday and being listed as questionable. HC Raheem Morris said that it would depend on how Williams looked before the game so beware he may not be active this week. I am not changing his low projections because he may play and it was slightly encouraging that he came back for some work on Friday.

Pierre Thomas has already been listed as out and will be replaced by Chris Ivory and Ladell Betts again.

The loss to the Cardinals last week drops the Saints to one game behind the Falcons and only 1-1 in road games this year. The Buccaneers are ahead of these Saints with a 3-1 record and they come off a surprise win in Cincy. This is an inconsistent year and these two teams are a big reason why.

The Saints won 38-7 in Tampa Bay last year.

New Orleans Saints (3-2)
Homefield: Superdome
Sportexe Turf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 MIN W 14-9 10 Bye -
2 @SF W 25-22 11 SEA --
3 ATL L 24-27 12 @DAL --
4 CAR W 16-14 13 @CIN --
5 @ARI L 20-30 14 STL --
6 @TB -- 15 @BAL --
7 CLE -- 16 @ATL --
8 PIT -- 17 TB --
9 @CAR -- - - -
Saints Report | Statistics | Roster
NEW ORLEANS at TB Rush Catch Pass
QB Drew Brees - - 260,2
RB Chris Ivory 30 - -
RB Ladell Betts 20 20 -
RB Pierre Thomas 60 30 -
TE Jeremy Shockey - 40 -
WR Marques Colston - 70 -
WR Lance Moore - 30,1 -
WR Devery Henderson - 40,1 -
WR Robert Meachem - 30 -
PK Garrett Hartley 3 FG 2 XP -

Pregame Notes: The Saints have released John Carney and will once again go with Garrett Hartley until he costs them yet another game. So far the reigning world champs have won three games all by five points or less and this once prolific offense is only averaging around 20 points per game. Just slightly less than they are allowing on average. Having already lost to the Falcons, the Saints cannot afford yet another loss to a divisional opponent.

QUARTERBACK: There's nothing wrong with Drew Brees stats this year except they are consistently a bit less than 2009. He has scored in every game but only has nine touchdowns against five interceptions over five games played. He has cracked 300 yards just once. Now he is always good for about 240 and a touchdown as a starting point but those monster games of 2009 just are not reappearing.

Brees passed for 187 yards and three scores in Tampa Bay last year.

The Buccaneers have been good against the pass but have only faced an ugly gaggle of bad quarterbacks. Even then, Charlie Batch posted three scores on them and Carson Palmer threw for two scores. This is a year of "Brees-lite" so continue the new tradition this week.

RUNNING BACKS: Pierre Thomas is expected to return to practice this week so I will pencil him in for now and adjust as the week's practice dictates. The loss in Arizona came largely from turnovers from the running backs. The Saints have signed Julius Jones as well and released Deshawn Wynn but how that plays in is too early to tell. All that is for sure is that Ladell Betts has done his career no favors with this recent stop in New Orleans being noted mainly for his fumble. Christopher Ivory has yet to prove to be anything special either.

For now I will project for Thomas to return and if he does not, then it could be a three-headed monster this week with Jones on the team. Thomas is the only one worthy of a heavy load and the only one that offers any reliability for fantasy purposes.

The Saints rushed for 186 yards and two scores in Tampa Bay last season.

The Buccaneers are soft against the run, allowing 140+ yards to the last two runners but the Saints are going to share the load and they are on the road. Expect just moderate numbers this week from Thomas and likely no touchdown. The Saints only have one rushing score this year anyway.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Not only have these wideouts experienced even more spreading around of the ball, but Brees has taken to throwing to Jeremy Shockey more at their expense. Robert Meachem had a score last week but only six catches for 54 yards in the four previous games. Marques Colston comes of a season high 97 yards on seven catches but has never scored and remains around 50 or 60 yards in all other games. Just when you thought Lance Moore was doing something, he had one catch for eight yards last week. This is a confusing area to predict and outside of yardage for Colston is a risk each week.

Colston led all Saints with five catches for 74 yards versus the Bucs last year. Robert Meachem only had two catches for 10 yards but both were for scores.

The Buccaneers are weak against wide receivers. They have already allowed six touchdowns to the position and a few 100 yard games. I like both scores to end up here but assigning them to players is with very low confidence.

TIGHT ENDS: Jeremy Shockey has scored in two of the last three games and his weekly targets are up as well. Still he only has one game over 58 yards but he's almost to the point of consistent enough to merit fantasy starts.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points NO 7 25 10 11 14 23
Preventing Fantasy Points TB 15 23 20 12 3 19
Advantage(+) or Disadvantage(-) NO 8 -2 10 1 -11 -4


Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-1)
Homefield: Raymond James Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 CLE W 17-14 10 CAR --
2 @CAR W 20-7 11 @SF --
3 PIT L 13-38 12 @BAL --
4 Bye - 13 ATL --
5 @CIN W 24-21 14 @WAS --
6 NO -- 15 DET --
7 STL -- 16 SEA --
8 @ARI -- 17 @NO --
9 @ATL -- - - -
Buccaneers Report | Statistics | Roster
TAMPA BAY vs NO Rush Catch Pass
QB Josh Freeman 30 - 190,1
RB Carnell Williams 40 10 -
TE Kellen Winslow Jr. - 70,1 -
WR Mike Williams - 50 -
WR Michael Spurlock - 30 -
WR Sammie Stroughter - 20 -
PK Conner Barth 2 FG 2 XP -

Pregame Notes: Big win in Cincinnati last week and that helps legitimize these Buccaneers. The first two wins were less impressive now knowing just how bad the Browns and Panthers are and the Steelers destroyed the Bucs. But beating the Bengals on the road is more than a kind schedule. A win this week means throw out the Steelers game as the aberration. And say good night to the Saints.

QUARTERBACK: Josh Freeman was knocked out of the game last week but returned in short order and had a season best 280 yards and one score with one interception. That makes three of four games played with a score and his first effort that went over 200 yards. Freeman has been in that "180 and one score" mode in most of his games but pumping up the yardage is encouraging.

Freeman passed for 126 yards and one score against the visiting Saints last year.

The Saints have been better against the pass this year but mostly as a function of not being 21 points in the lead at halftime this year. That average sort of game from Freeman fits neatly into what the Saints have been allowing.

RUNNING BACKS: What to do? This sad sack unit was in some transition last week with LeGarrette Blount slated to get some appreciable work but he only ended with four carries for three yards. Kareem Huggins only had one run for four yardage in his first action. But then Earnest Graham popped off a 61-yard touchdown run (which is amazing if you saw it because he runs so slowly). And of course, there was Carnell Williams still getting 11 carries so he could gain 33 yards. There can be fantasy value here if they would stick with just one runner. Or even just two. But all four? Nothing was changed and this backfield remains hands off despite some potential locked away inside.

The Bucs only rushed for 88 yards on 21 carries using three different running backs last year.

I am only going to project for Williams who gets marginally enough carries to register. I like a rushing score but am not assigning it since it could go to any of the four players.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Mike Williams is the second coming of fellow Syracuse alum Marvin Harrison. Williams has only started four NFL games and has three touchdowns. He had a season high 99 yards on seven catches last week. There are minimal passes and scores on this team and Williams takes the biggest share on both. No other wideout is worth more than maybe 40 yards in any game. But Williams is impressive and still in the natal stages of his NFL career. No other wideout here remotely matters.

The Saints have been outstanding against wideouts and allowed just one touchdown to the position this year. No receiver has exceeded 100 yards. Williams is a bright star but he's a marked man this week.

TIGHT ENDS: Kellen Winslow Jr. is always sitting out pf practices or listed as questionable and yet he always plays and while he has not scored yet, he did gain over 75 yards in two of the last three games which is very notable on this offense. The Saints have been very susceptible to tight end production so go ahead and start Winslow who will miss some practice and be questionable again.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points TB 12 23 20 17 21 12
Preventing Fantasy Points NO 8 26 1 28 7 21
Advantage(+) or Disadvantage(-) TB -4 3 -19 11 -14 9

WEEK 6
2010
CLE at PIT BAL at NE SEA at CHI IND at WAS
NO at TB KC at HOU OAK at SF TEN at JAC
MIA at GB DET at NYG NYJ at DEN ARI, BUF
  SD at STL ATL at PHI DAL at MIN CAR, CIN
Other Features
Fantasy Statistics
Tuesday Injury Report
Free Agent Forecast
Commentary From the Edge
Under the Numbers
Game Recaps
Tunnel Vision
a d v e r t i s e m e n t