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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 6
2010
*CLE at PIT *BAL at NE *SEA at CHI *IND at WAS
*NO at TB KC at HOU *OAK at SF *TEN at JAC
*MIA at GB *DET at NYG NYJ at DEN ARI, BUF
*Updated *SD at STL ATL at PHI *DAL at MIN CAR, CIN

Prediction: TEN 27, JAC 20

Update: Maurice Jones-Drew was held out of practice on Wednesday with the same sore ankle and also has a swollen hand. He expects to play on Monday day night so watch for Friday's practice. Jones-Drew has until Monday to heal up even though you may not be able to replace him should he not play for any reason.

Justin Gage i ssitll bothered by his hamstring and not practicing. I am removing from the projections. Chris Johnson was given the day off on Thursday to rest his sore ankle but is expected to play and the move was more to keep him fresh.

Update #2: Maurice Jones-Drew and Chris Johnson both returned to a full day of practice on Friday and will play without limitation.

Flip a coin. Here are two 3-2 teams but the Titans are strictly about winning, then losing, then winning, then losing... It even required a home loss to the Broncos and road wins in New York and Dallas. The Jaguars did beat the Broncos and then for two weeks looked horrible. Magically, they have reeled off two wins now including beating the Colts. Just to add to the "what the heck?" factor is this being the Monday night game. And the Jaguars won 37-17 when they hosted the Titans in week four of last year.

Tennessee Titans (3-2)
Homefield: LP Field
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 OAK W 38-13 10 @MIA --
2 PIT L 11-19 11 WAS --
3 @NYG W 29-10 12 @HOU --
4 DEN L 20-26 13 JAC --
5 @DAL W 34-27 14 IND --
6 @JAC -- 15 HOU --
7 PHI -- 16 @KC --
8 @SD -- 17 @IND --
9 Bye - - - -
Titans Report | Statistics | Roster
TENNESSEE at JAC Rush Catch Pass
QB Vince Young 20 - 220,2
RB Chris Johnson 110,1 20 -
WR Justin Gage - 40 -
WR Nate Washington - 50,1 -
WR Kenny Britt - 90,1 -
PK Rob Bironas 2 FG 3 XP -
Pregame Notes: Big win in Dallas had the Titans hitting on all cylinders and now is a good time to start to play consistently since this is the first divisional game. As it stands, the final six weeks of the season have the other five divisional matchups so no matter what, nothing gets decided in this division until the very end.

QUARTERBACK: Vince Young has been effective enough as a quarterback but only thanks to playing with Chris Johnson. So far the recipe is clear - when Johnson breaks 100 yards, the Titans win. When he doesn't, they lose. The weird part of that is Vince Young produces roughly the same stats every week independent of the game situation. He has seven scores in five games but never more than two. He has not passed for more than 173 yards in any game. Either Johnson wins the game or Young cannot rally the team.

The Titans started Kerry Collins against the Jaguars last year and he had 284 yards and a score. He rushed in a touchdown as well.

The Jaguars offer the #32 - worst of the worst - secondary up for Young to do something with it. No opponent has failed to throw a touchdown on the Jags and most have three touchdowns. Four teams threw for 290+ yards. Figure on two scores for Young but more than 173 yards is going to be a first for the season.

RUNNING BACKS: As noted, Chris Johnson has topped 100 yards three times this season and each resulted in a win. He also scored twice in each of those games. In the two losses, no scores and less than 55 rushing yards (and both were home games no less).

Johnson gained 83 yards on 16 carries in Jacksonville last season.

The Jaguars are not that good against the run but since most teams pass so heavily, the runners get shortchanged. Not so with this team so look for a nice game here by Johnson with at least one score. The Titans will always run first.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Kenny Britt is finally getting on track and scored in each of the last three games. In Dallas he had a season high 86 yards on four receptions and is starting to turn the corner on being a reliable weekly player. Nate Washington also scored last week though his yardage remains low since week one. The wideouts are typically only marginally productive here but this game is as good as it gets.

Britt caught five passes for 105 yards against the Jags last year. Washington turned in a touchdown on seven catches for 66 yards.

The Jags have the #32 defense against wide receivers. They have already allowed nine touchdowns to wide receivers so expect for this one week that the Titans wideouts at least have upside and could turn in a decent game.

TIGHT ENDS: No fantasy value.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points TEN 26 6 17 24 13 6
Preventing Fantasy Points JAC 32 18 32 18 8 13
Advantage(+) or Disadvantage(-) TEN 6 12 15 -6 -5 7


Jacksonville Jaguars (3-2)
Homefield: J'ville Municipal Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 DEN W 24-17 10 HOU --
2 @SD L 13-38 11 CLE --
3 PHI L 3-28 12 @NYG --
4 IND W 31-28 13 @TEN --
5 @BUF W 36-26 14 OAK --
6 TEN -- 15 @IND --
7 @KC -- 16 WAS --
8 @DAL -- 17 @HOU --
9 Bye - - - -
Jaguars Report | Statistics | Roster
JACKSONVILLE vs TEN Rush Catch Pass
QB David Garrard - - 190,2
RB Maurice Jones-Drew 90 20 -
TE Marcedes Lewis - 30,1 -
WR Tiquan Underwood - 30 -
WR Mike Sims-Walker - 40 -
WR Mike Thomas - 60,1 -
PK Josh Scobee 2 FG 2 XP -

Pregame Notes: The Jaguars are hard ones to nail down but mainly from the wildly inconsistent nature of the offense that perhaps has caught fire finally. Or it's just a case of every two weeks, the team reverses weaknesses and strengths. The win over the Colts counts huge if it comes down to a tie breaker in the AFC South but a win or loss here matters just as much.

QUARTERBACK: After three weeks, David Garrard was on a hot seat with two straight losses that had only one touchdown against five interceptions. These last two games, he's suddenly thrown five touchdowns against only one interception. It's all upside down. Garrard has remained consistent with right at 170 passing yards every week but one and then it was when he only had 105 yards in the Philly loss. Garrard has a chance this week to show exactly who he really is this season. Then again, he could change next week.

Garrard passed for 323 yards and three scores against the visiting Titans last year.

The Titans were excellent against the pass until Dallas and Denver posted big games. But this is David Garrard who has yet to exceed 178 yards in a game. Give him a couple of scores but moderate yardage is an upgrade for him.

RUNNING BACKS: Maurice Jones-Drew has only scored on just one team this season and has only that one effort that topped 100 rushing yards. He's been nearly completely phased out as a receiver and relies on running for around 90 yards each week. That's decent enough for an RB3 on your fantasy team but not as the elite runner he was expected to remain.

Jones-Drew only gained 14 yards on six carries but scored once in the first meeting with the Titans. He later had 177 yards and two scores on only eight runs in the second meeting.

The Titans have only given up one rushing touchdown this season and all signs point at another standard showing for Jones-Drew - around 90 rushing yards and no rushing scores.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Mike Sims-Walker comes off his second touchdown of the year but he only managed 46 yards on four catches in Buffalo and had no receptions against the Colts. His promising 2009 season has gone down in flames with Garrard unable to connect with him. Mike Thomas has been more productive with yardage but still has not scored a touchdown. The challenge that Garrard has had with never topping 180 yards is because he cannot connect with both wideouts in the same game to any measure and even then only occasionally gives one of them notable production.

Sims-Walker recorded seven receptions for 91 yards and two scores on the visiting Titans last year. Thomas was limited to 31 yards on five catches.

The Titans did not allow any wideout scores in the first three weeks so any more than one to this unit would be a huge success. Sims-Walker has been the preferred scorer but I am crediting it to the overdue Thomas who has the heaviest workload as a receiver.

TIGHT ENDS: While Marcedes Lewis rarely gains more than 30 yards in a game, he is the leading scorer for the Jaguars with five touchdowns. No one else has more than two. Lewis has scored three times in just the last two weeks. Push that out to three weeks with Garrard pressed to find anyone else near the endzone.

Lewis gained 76 yards and a score on four catches when the Titans visited in 2009.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points JAC 11 20 25 7 6 25
Preventing Fantasy Points TEN 20 7 22 13 30 20
Advantage(+) or Disadvantage(-) JAC 9 -13 -3 6 24 -5

WEEK 6
2010
CLE at PIT BAL at NE SEA at CHI IND at WAS
NO at TB KC at HOU OAK at SF TEN at JAC
MIA at GB DET at NYG NYJ at DEN ARI, BUF
  SD at STL ATL at PHI DAL at MIN CAR, CIN
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