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FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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Game Predictions Summary

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WEEK 8
2010
*GB at NYJ *CAR at STL *MIN at NE *HOU at IND
*DEN at SF WAS at DET *SEA at OAK ATL, BAL
JAC at DAL *BUF at KC TB at ARI CHI, CLE
*UPDATED MIA at CIN *TEN at SD *PIT at NO NYG, PHI

Prediction: BUF 20, KC 37

Update: Dexter McCluster has not practiced this week and there are reports that he actually has a high ankle sprain. I am removing him from the projections based on his risk alone.

Not many teams can score 34 points and still lose the game but then again the Bills have allowed 33 points per game on average - the #1 worst defense against scoring. Not allowing less than 34 points in the last five games has something to do with them being 0-6. The Chiefs remain atop the AFC West with a 4-2 record and a 3-0 home mark. Here's hoping for more obscene points.

The Bills won 16-10 in Kansas City during week 14 of last year.

Buffalo Bills (0-6)
Homefield: Ralph Wilson Stadium
AstroTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 MIA L 10-15 10 DET --
2 @GB L 7-34 11 @CIN --
3 @NE L 30-38 12 PIT --
4 NYJ L 14-38 13 @MIN --
5 JAC L 26-36 14 CLE --
6 Bye - 15 @MIA --
7 @BAL L 34-37 16 NE --
8 @KC -- 17 @NYJ --
9 CHI -- - - -
Bills Report | Statistics | Roster
BUFFALO at KC Rush Catch Pass
QB Ryan Fitzpatrick - - 230,2
RB C.J. Spiller 30 10 -
RB Fred Jackson 60 - -
WR Lee Evans - 60,1 -
WR Steve Johnson - 70,1 -
WR Roscoe Parrish - 30 -
PK Rian Lindell 2 FG 2 XP -
Pregame Notes: Well, it's not like the offense has been the problem. The Bills have scored over 26 points in three of the last four games and yet cannot hope to keep pace with what their own defense is giving away. This is getting reminiscent of the old Rams teams when they had no defense. The rushing game is still anemic but the new passing scheme installed by HC Chan Gailey and OC Curtis Modkins is making fantasy stars out of relatively unknown players.

QUARTERBACK: Ryan Fitzpatrick is playing for his third team, but this one time 7th rounder in 2005 is acting like he is a franchise quarterback. Since taking over in week three, he has never failed to pass for less than two touchdowns per game and comes off a season best 374 yards and four scores in Baltimore. He has 11 touchdowns against only four interceptions and while his yardage had not been above 250 until last week, he has been automatic with those two touchdowns.

Fitzpatrick only passed for 86 yards and one score in Kansas City last year.

The Chiefs have allowed a score to all but one opponent but never more than two. And they have yet to hold an opponent to less than 222 passing yards as well so look for at least a standard game from Fitzpatrick who apparently can surprise at any given moment.

RUNNING BACKS: Since Marshawn Lynch left, Fred Jackson has assumed the fulltime role with C.J. Spiller offering only minor relief. Jackson has topped out at 73 rushing yards in a game so far and has only one touchdown. He has almost no role as a receiver with only four catches for a net (-3) yards. Spiller comes off his best game of the year when he gained 33 yards on seven carries and has yet to really answer the question - why was he the first back drafted this year?

Jackson and Marshawn Lynch combined for 183 yards on 32 carries in Kansas City last season. That would be a shocker to happen this year. The Chiefs defense has not allowed more than 78 rushing yards to any runner and most remain around 50 yards or less. Twice they have allowed decent receiving totals for a running back but the Bills have never used their backs like that this season. No reason to expect more than the normal mediocre showing.

WIDE RECEIVERS: All those scoring passes from Fitzpatrick go right here. And the only end up with either Lee Evans or Steve Johnson. Evans comes off a career best three touchdowns in Baltimore when he had six receptions for 105 yards. Johnson has scored at least once in all four starts by Fitzpatrick and while his yardage had been hovering around 50 to 60 yards per game, he blew up on the Ravens for eight receptions for 158 yards. Roscoe Parrish has a minor role as does David Nelson but neither have any fantasy value or even score. Evans has been inconsistent with Fitzpatrick around though more productive overall. Johnson is Mr. Automatic with that touchdown so far.

The Chiefs have allowed almost every team to score with a wide receiver and the scores that they gave up to running backs on other teams would have to translate here. Most receivers have very ordinary games against the Chiefs who have only allowed two players to have over 75 yards in receiving yards. On the road again, the Bills will have to throw and here is the only place those passes end up.

TIGHT ENDS: No fantasy value.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points BUF 21 32 12 30 25 30
Preventing Fantasy Points KC 15 24 15 24 6 1
Advantage(+) or Disadvantage(-) BUF -6 -8 3 -6 -19 -29


Kansas City Chiefs (4-2)
Homefield: Arrowhead Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 SD W 21-14 10 @DEN --
2 @CLE W 16-14 11 ARI --
3 SF W 31-10 12 @SEA --
4 Bye - 13 DEN --
5 @IND L 9-19 14 @SD --
6 @HOU L 31-35 15 @STL --
7 JAC W 42-20 16 TEN --
8 BUF -- 17 OAK --
9 @OAK -- - - -
Chiefs Report | Statistics | Roster
KANSAS CITY vs BUF Rush Catch Pass
QB Matt Cassel - - 180,2
RB Jamaal Charles 110,1 20 -
RB Thomas Jones 100,1 - -
TE Tony Moeaki - 40,1 -
WR Dexter McCluster - 40 -
WR Dwayne Bowe - 60,1 -
PK Ryan Succop 3 FG 4 FG -

Pregame Notes: The Chiefs ended their two game losing streak by preying on the Jaguars and rolling up 42 points against them. They still have yet to allow more than 20 points in a home game and each have never been by less than a touchdown. The passing game has been reinvigorated by facing the two worst secondaries in a row but that's not likely to continue thanks to pitting the #1 rushing attack against the worst defense against running backs.

QUARTERBACK: The stats from Matt Cassel have been inconsistent thanks to mostly handing off the ball each week but he threw for five scores over the last two weeks against the non-existent secondaries of JAC and HOU even though he did not top 201 passing yards in either. Cassel could come into play again this week though against a secondary that has allowed no less than two scores to each of the last five quarterbacks it has faced. Even more important - the Bills have been better against the run and could actually force Cassel to throw in order to reach that 30+ point level that all opponents are apparently guaranteed.

Cassel passed for 224 yards and no scores against the Bills last year.

It is unlikely that Cassel will end up with much yardage but he is sixth in line to score at least twice via the pass and he has the personnel to do it.

RUNNING BACKS: The duo of Thomas Jones and Jamaal Charles now ranks as tops in the league and that's been thanks to two straight games against soft defenses that have allowed around 200 rushing yards to these runners. Charles remains the better of the two per carry but Jones broke off a 70 yard run against the Jaguars and ended with a season high of 125 yards. While it hurts to watch these guys split work knowing what one could do by himself (hint - Charles 2009), they have been so productive that just one runner probably could not handle that much work.

Charles rushed for 143 yards and one score on 20 carries versus the Bills in 2009.

The Bills have been very soft against the rush lately with over 130 rush yards allowed to the last three opponents and a decent equivalent would be when they faced the Jets who turned in 41 carries for 250 yards and two scores in Buffalo. No reason not to start both players this week.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Chris Chambers has been replaced by Terrance Copper for the last two weeks with only one catch to show for the swap. Dexter McCluster has been more involved in these last two games against soft defenses as both a runner and a receiver though last week he had his best game with just 69 total yards. Dwayne Bowe is the one having a revival to his career with two touchdowns in both of these last games against the worst secondaries in the league - literally.

The Bills have allowed at least one wideout to score against them in each of the last five games and that would have to be Bowe again who is gaining some chemistry with Cassel finally. But no wideout has turned in more than 92 yards against them so temper expectations of getting much more than a score from Bowe.

TIGHT ENDS: The Bills have ranked worst against tight ends. Tony Moeaki has not scored in three weeks in part because of the success of the rushing effort and he's fallen to only three catches per week, But the Bills have given up seven scores to the position in just the last four weeks so expect Moeaki to take at least some advantage.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points KC 29 4 28 17 16 16
Preventing Fantasy Points BUF 25 31 18 32 32 11
Advantage(+) or Disadvantage(-) KC -4 27 -10 15 16 -5

WEEK 8
2010
GB at NYJ CAR at STL MIN at NE HOU at IND
DEN at SF WAS at DET SEA at OAK ATL, BAL
JAC at DAL BUF at KC TB at ARI CHI, CLE
  MIA at CIN TEN at SD PIT at NO NYG, PHI
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