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FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Upon Further Review - Week 8
David Dorey and John Tuvey
October 29, 2010
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In order to help our members better use the starting information that The Huddle provides, the intent of this page is to discuss perceived differences between The Start Bench List and Predictions and Projections . The players below were identified by multiple members. The two reports are written by two different people so differences are always possible, but at least this page should help you make up your mind about these players on your roster.

greg jennings (AT ) - PROJECTION:  50 yds SBL RATING:  s3

TUVEY: I know what's going on here: the Revis factor. It sounds like Revis won't be isolated exclusively on Jennings, though, so a guy who's become Aaron Rodgers' go-to guy with Jermichael Finley out of the mix (17 targets in two games) is at least worthy of starter consideration. The news on Revis being moved from Packer receiver to Packer receiver broke a little later in the week, so it's likely the P&P was slated to be adjusted accordingly anyway. And there's not much difference between an S3 and a 50-yard projection anyway.

DOREY: Yeah, I am not so sure we are that different as it is. Say what they want, Revis just reasonably seems likely to stick with mostly Jennings since Donald Driver is banged up anyway, Jermichael Finley is gone and James Jones can be covered by others just as well. A projection of 50 yards is very good for someone going against a healthy Revis.

CONSENSUS:  Jennings can be considered as a lower end starter if only because he is adept at catching the long ball and all it takes is one of those to get you 40 yards and a score. But he's not likely to be even an average starter this week.

dustin keller (AT ) - PROJECTION:  30, SBL RATING: s2

TUVEY: Maybe DMD is working off of the stats that don't reflect the Packers giving up a tight end touchdown last weekend. Doesn't matter; Keller is the go-to guy in the Jets' passing game and a solid bet for 75 yards or a TD (or both) on an every-week basis. I get that the Jets will run more at home, but 30 yards seems to be a serious undersell on Keller's potential. He should be in starting lineups, especially on a week where six teams are on bye and perennial starter Dallas Clark is out of the mix as well.

DOREY: My projections for Keller are a function of three factors. First I see the game as lower scoring and that the Jets will have more success rushing the ball which leads to less passing. Secondly, Keller has been less active at home, with two of three games only producing around 14 yards on two catches each time. Thirdly, the Jets are coming off a bye week and I would expect that Mark Sanchez has worked more with Santonio Holmes and will be increasing his passing that direction at some expense of Keller.

CONSENSUS:  Keller has been a great fantasy start more often than not. His potential alone should make him no worse than an S2 in every game. This week has a few factors that may work against him but he is a relief valve for Sanchez. The higher the score you think this game will produce, the more advantageous Keller will be.

felix jones (AT ) - PROJECTION: 40 + 10, SBL RATING: s2

TUVEY: There's no question DMD is closer to the Cowboys than me, and I understand his pessimism regarding his team's ground game; it's like asking me, a Vikings fan, to be objective about the prospects of the Purple if Tarvaris Jackson is foisted upon us at quarterback. But a backup QB might finally be the impetus for Dallas to start trusting their ground game a little bit more. And a date with a Jacksonville defense that serves up rushing yards like big suburban houses serve up full-sized candy bars on Halloween (what, you think I devote all my analytical skills to fantasy football?) should give Felix the rare opportunity to be a fantasy stud—or at least worthy of a fantasy start.

DOREY: The intention to give more work to Felix Jones is something that the Dallas coaches have talked about since they drafted him. They just never do it. He has never had more than 16 carries in any game during his entire career. He has only averaged 4.4 yards per carry this year and still has zero touchdowns. The only great fantasy aspect to him has been a tendency on the road against really good defenses he has been used as a receiver. Then again - Tony Romo is gone and Jon Kitna may not use him like that. The Jaguars are soft against the run to be sure and there is a chance that Jones could have a nice game here. But the Jaguars are even worse against the pass - like as in #32. Given that the Cowboys are already ranked 30th in the league with just 86 rush yards per game and that Jones has gained more than 43 rushing yards only once in six games, it's hard to get very excited.

CONSENSUS:  No doubt that Jones is in an advantageous spot but that takes a leap of faith to expect a big game here. The Cowboys could try to rely on the rushing game more this week but then again why? They are facing an even worse secondary and Kitna needs the game experience to get back into the swing of starter after a two year hiatus. Jones has upside this week but it isn't really any more than he's had on most other games. Historically, he does play far better at home.

Start Bench List Ratings:
S1: Start 'em Tier One (Stud / Great matchup) U: Upside player (Possible sleeper)
S2: Start 'em Tier Two (Solid matchup) X: Unclear situation / Could go either way
S3: Start 'em Tier Three (Borderline / Barely) B: Bench 'em (Bad Matchup / Too much risk)
Predictions and Projections:
The projections are what is mostly likely to occur given everything that has recently happened added to the current team dynamics. They consider total rushing and passing yardage and scores and then distribute them between the most active starting players based on how the track record of the offense and the opposing defense along with variables like injuries, depth chart changes, venue, weather and so on.

Other Features
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Start / Bench List
Game Predictions
Player Projections
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