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FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
Sortable Player Projections
Game Predictions Summary

Projections by Team
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WEEK 9
2010
TB at ATL MIA at BAL *NYG at SEA PIT at CIN
*NO at CAR NE at CLE KC at OAK DEN, JAC
CHI at BUF *SD at HOU *IND at PHI SF, STL
*Updated *NYJ at DET *ARI at MIN *DAL at GB TEN, WAS

Prediction: MIA 16, BAL 27

This should be a very good game and an important one to each team. The Ravens are at home where they are 3-0 and they are currently tied with the Steelers for the AFC North lead. The Dolphins are 4-3 and two games back in the AFC East but are freakishly 4-0 on the road and 0-3 at home. The Ravens are coming off their bye while the Fins are on their third road game in four weeks.

Miami Dolphins (4-3)
Homefield: Dolphins Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @BUF W 15-10 10 TEN --
2 @MIN W 14-10 11 CHI --
3 NYJ L 23-31 12 @OAK --
4 NE L 14-41 13 CLE --
5 Bye - 14 @NYJ --
6 @GB W 23-20 15 BUF --
7 PIT L 22-23 16 DET --
8 @CIN W 22-14 17 @NE --
9 @BAL -- - - -
Dolphins Report | Statistics | Roster
MIAMI at BAL Rush Catch Pass
QB Chad Henne - - 230,1
RB Ricky Williams 40 - -
RB Ronnie Brown 40 10 -
TE Anthony Fasano - 20 -
WR Brandon Marshall - 80,1 -
WR Brian Hartline - 30 -
WR Davone Bess - 60 -
PK Dan Carpenter 3 FG 1 XP -

Pregame Notes: The Dolphins may lack red zone ability but that doesn't matter as much when Dan Carpenter can kick five field goals in a game - and for each of the last two games. The success of Carpenter just reflects the lethargic offense that has minimal success running the ball and a passing game that has been in decline in recent weeks due in part to a tougher schedule. That is not going to get any better this week in Baltimore.

QUARTERBACK: Chad Henne has gone through a bell curve of sorts, starting the year with only one score in the first two games, bumping that to two scores for three weeks and now once again only passing for one touchdown over the last two matchups. As it worked out, one key has been the venue. In home games, he has thrown for five scores in three games and never had less than 250 yards but on the road he has only scored three times in four games including two scoreless efforts. He also has never thrown for more than 230 yards in a road game.

The Ravens have allowed an uncharacteristic six scores in the last two home games but nothing that Henne has done suggests he will be in line for more than his standard road fare - one score at most and marginal yardage.

RUNNING BACKS: No changes here to a backfield predicated on splitting the work between two rather average backs. Combined they have only two rushing scores (one apiece of course) and neither Ricky Williams nor Ronnie Brown have cracked 80 rushing yards in a game. The Ravens have only allowed three runners to score on them this season and this duo are an unlikely pair to make it four.

Expect slightly less yardage this week divided by two. Neither runner is worth a fantasy start outside of very large leagues.

WIDE RECEIVERS: The declining passing stats of recent weeks have shown up here with Brandon Marshall dropping to only five catches for around 60 yards in each of the last two games. Brian Hartline is being replaced by Roberto Wallace on some plays with virtually zero impact. Davone Bess continues to enjoy the "Moss-Welker" effect with a team high three touchdowns and around 50 yards or better every week.

The Ravens have been victimized by wide receivers and that could end up with either Marshall or Bess. Marshall could have a bounce back game here but it will require Henne to trust in his wideout and throw him the same 10 to 15 passes he was doing earlier in the year. If not - once again Bess is the better play.

TIGHT ENDS: Anthony Fasano is never more than a marginal fantasy play and the Ravens are one of the top defenses at stopping tight ends. No reason to take Fasano off your bench.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points MIA 18 26 10 22 7 20
Preventing Fantasy Points BAL 5 8 23 3 24 4
Advantage(+) or Disadvantage(-) MIA -13 -18 13 -19 17 -16


Baltimore Ravens (5-2)
Homefield: M&T Bank Stadium
Sport Turf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @NYJ W 10-9 10 @ATL --
2 @CIN L 10-15 11 @CAR --
3 CLE W 24-17 12 TB --
4 @PIT W 17-14 13 PIT --
5 DEN W 31-17 14 @HOU --
6 @NE L 20-23 15 NO --
7 BUF W 37-34 16 @CLE --
8 Bye - 17 CIN --
9 MIA --   - -
Ravens Report | Statistics | Roster
BALTIMORE vs MIA Rush Catch Pass
QB Joe Flacco - - 250,2
RB Ray Rice 80 20 -
RB Willis McGahee 40,1 - -
TE Todd Heap - 40 -
WR Anquan Boldin - 90,2 -
WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh - 20 -
WR Derrick Mason - 50 -
PK Billy Cundiff 2 FG 3 XP -

Pregame Notes: The Ravens come off their bye week suddenly tied for the AFC North lead thanks to the Steelers loss in New Orleans. Couple that with the Ravens win in Pittsburgh and they are in the driver's seat and facing the easier half of their schedule. The bye week came at a good time to heal up the wide receivers and prepare for the drive towards the playoffs.

QUARTERBACK: Joe Flacco has been a decent fantasy play in most weeks and has scored at least one touchdown every week even if it required a run to get it done. Flacco has passed for over 250 yards in four of the last five games and has ten passing scores against six interceptions.

He faces a Dolphins secondary which had been mostly average by not playing many teams with good quarterbacks. Look for a nice game here with two scores and no less than good yardage. The Fins have been tougher against the run and will force Flacco up top.

RUNNING BACKS: The Ravens wanted to reduce some of the wear on Ray Rice after he carried 55 times over two weeks and he slipped down to just 16 totes for 72 yards against the Bills. Willis McGahee was oddly excluded from the New England game but showed up with 11 carries for 64 yards against the Bills including his third straight touchdown in game where he actually played.

How this split continues is under review each week. Rice has been a safe play for 15 carries or so and has been as good as 28 but McGahee is still siphoning off short touchdowns and more than a few yards.

The Fins have only allowed three rushing scores by running backs this year and only Adrian Peterson gained more than 76 yards against them. But the Ravens are at home and have been practicing for two weeks. Look for the moderate numbers from these two runners.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Donte Stallworth may be able to finally play this week but how he fits in remains to be determined and chances are slim there is any fantasy value there anyway. Derrick Mason had a pin inserted into his right pinky but is expected to play without limitation this week. Anquan Boldin has scored in each of the last two games and remains the biggest threat. Boldin has produced 60 yards or better in almost every game.

The Fins are better than most in the secondary but still have allowed seven passing scores to the wide receivers and in nearly every case it comes from the #1 wideout so look for at least a decent game with a score from Boldin that may grow into a big game. No other wideout here has much upside though Mason should have some yardage if his finger is truly no issue.

TIGHT ENDS: Todd Heap received a shoulder stinger against the Bills but is expected to be good to play this week and he has scored in each of the last two games. The Dolphins have only allowed only one tight end (Dustin Keller) to score against them and almost all turned in 35 yards or less. Heap could catch a score in this game but is a better risk for just moderate yardage and making sure his shoulder truly is no more of an issue.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points BAL 15 10 16 14 20 29
Preventing Fantasy Points MIA 14 10 16 20 22 17
Advantage(+) or Disadvantage(-) BAL -1 0 0 6 2 -12

WEEK 9
2010
TB at ATL MIA at BAL NYG at SEA PIT at CIN
NO at CAR NE at CLE KC at OAK DEN, JAC
CHI at BUF SD at HOU IND at PHI SF, STL
  NYJ at DET ARI at MIN DAL at GB TEN, WAS
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