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FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Upon Further Review - Week 9
David Dorey and John Tuvey
November 5, 2010
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In order to help our members better use the starting information that The Huddle provides, the intent of this page is to discuss perceived differences between The Start Bench List and Predictions and Projections . The players below were identified by multiple members. The two reports are written by two different people so differences are always possible, but at least this page should help you make up your mind about these players on your roster.

Calvin Johnson (vs nyj) - PROJECTION:  60 yds SBL RATING:  S2

TUVEY: Megatron is an S2 because I couldn't fathom benching him regardless of matchup, and since you can't run on the Jets they'll have to throw so he'll have plenty of opportunities. Revis, Cromartie, both... doesn't matter; Johnson has demonstrated that regardless of quarterback or opponent he's an every week start.

DOREY: This week is all about respecting what should be a healthy Darrelle Revis and 60 yards is actually generous for what most receivers gain against him. Johnson has the speed and size to present for even Revis and while I project a pretty moderate game, even I would (and actually am) starting Johnson. His projection is a most likely case of many potential endings to the game. Johnson is too talented and has too much upside to ever be benched.

CONSENSUS:  We both basically agree - Johnson is not likely to have a big game this week but he remains worth a fantasy start every week regardless. Always start your studs and Johnson is one of the elite wideouts.

Matt Schaub (vs sd) - PROJECTION:  200 yds + td, SBL RATING: S2

TUVEY: Maybe I just trust Schaub more than most (more than I should?). I see the Titans throw for 305 and 2 against the Bolts, without Kenny Britt, and I figure, "Why not Schaub?" If Andre Johnson's injury prevents him from practicing I could see downgrading Schaub, but as it stands he's a solid start against a defense that just let Vince Young and Kerry Collins dissect them. And solid start equals S2.

DOREY: While Schaub is at home, he is facing the defense currently ranked #1 against quarterbacks. The Texans also have the best running back in this game with a good reason to use him extensively - eat up the clock and keep Philip RIvers off the field. The Titans had a big game against them because A.) the defense was devoted to stopping Chris Johnson who only gained 59 yards on 15 carries and B.) that was the only game all year that any team threw for more than one score or 220 yards. The Titans had a 71-yard touchdown to Washington and take that one lucky pass away and it is all normal numbers. The Chargers are #1 against QBs even after that game.

CONSENSUS:  As always, it depends on what your other options are. Matt Schaub is not the powerhouse of 2009 with only six touchdowns over the last five games and five of those games remaining under 240 yards. Schaub is an average play this week.

Mike Bush (vs kc) - PROJECTION:  50 + 30 yds + Td, SBL RATING:  B

TUVEY: Bush is still the junior partner, there's no guarantee he'll swipe goal line looks from McFadden, and the Chiefs have been relatively solid defensively. That's enough risk to put him right on that S3/B fence.You could talk fast enough to convince me that Bush could be elevated to a fringe starter, especially now that we'll be treated to the quarterback stylings of Jason Campbell again; who wouldn't want to lean more heavily on the running game with Campbell at the helm? 

DOREY: I like McFadden much more and his projections are 80 rush + 60 receive yards and one score. But the Raiders are going to be looking to move the ball with the backfield more since Louis Murphy remains out and Darrius Heyward-Bey has a bum shoulder. Even worse, Zach Miller has been on crutches and has not practiced because of his foot though HC Tom Cable insisted that he would play. Banged up receivers means using the only weapons that work - McFadden and Bush in a home game no less.

CONSENSUS:  No doubt that Bush presents much more risk than McFadden, but it depends on what you see the game doing - if the Raiders win or even just play competitively, there is going to be a ton of rushing in this game by both sides. There will be some spillover for Bush but touchdowns are always iffy projections so can you live with getting 50 to 80 yards from Bush?

Ryan Fitzpatrick (vs chi ) - PROJECTION:  20 + 230 yds + 2 td, SBL RATING:  s3

TUVEY: Admittedly, I didn't consider Fitzpatrick contributing a rushing score to his stat line. If you think Fitz runs one in—I'm not saying he won't, just noting that he has one rushing score in his last 15 starts dating back to the end of the 2008 season—then he's probably more than just a fringe starter.

DOREY: That rushing score is likely the perceived difference. The thinking there was that the Bears have only given up 4 passing scores and yet seven rushing touchdowns including one by Aaron Rodgers. In some ways it was also about a final game score that I liked the most and how I could get the score there. Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller have been so bad at scoring or even rushing really that I could see how Fitzpatrick could end up with the score.

CONSENSUS:  The bread and butter of Fitzpatrick is passing to wide receivers and the Bears have been outstanding allowing only three scores to the position all season long. Forget the rushing score if it makes you consider Fitzpatrick as a solid starter because the Bears have been very good against scoring.

Michael Vick (vs ind) - PROJECTION:  40 + 200 yds + 2 TD, SBL RATING:  s3

TUVEY: Again with the rushing score? Now with Vick it makes a lot more sense, especially since the Colts will present him with a legitimate NFL pass defense—something he didn't see in piling up those gaudy numbers earlier in the year. In the air alone, Vick's a borderline start. But if he can run away from Dwight Freeney and kick in some rushing yardage, a bump to S2 isn't out of the question.

DOREY: I do like Vick to score here - the addition of DeSean Jackson is great but the Colts have a very solid secondary and have been softer against the rush - particularly on the road. Vick is going to find the passing tougher than he did with DET and JAC so he'll be running more.

CONSENSUS:  Vick should run more this week and pass less than we saw prior to his chest injury. He makes at least an average start factoring in rushing yards and possibly even a score on the ground. Jackson and Maclin should draw the defense back and leave more scamper room for Vick.

Arian Foster (vs sd) - PROJECTION:  100 + 30 yds + td, SBL RATING:  s2

TUVEY: Hey, I like Foster as much as the next guy. But I just saw San Diego hold Chris Johnson to 59 yards and a touchdown. Mix in the Kubiak Factor and Foster's a solid start but not necessarily a mortal lock.

DOREY: While Johnson was held to 59 yards, that was in SD and the two previous road opponents featured Steven Jackson (29-109, TD) and Michael Bush (26-104, TD + 3-31 receiving). As discussed with Schaub, the Texans will want to rush more this week and Foster should get at least enough carries to turn in a solid game. Coincidentally, the projections match what Michael Bush did against the Chargers - who would you rather start? Bush or Foster?

CONSENSUS:  Arian Foster is an automatic start every week and even more so when playing at home. Start with confidence.

Start Bench List Ratings:
S1: Start 'em Tier One (Stud / Great matchup) U: Upside player (Possible sleeper)
S2: Start 'em Tier Two (Solid matchup) X: Unclear situation / Could go either way
S3: Start 'em Tier Three (Borderline / Barely) B: Bench 'em (Bad Matchup / Too much risk)
Predictions and Projections:
The projections are what is mostly likely to occur given everything that has recently happened added to the current team dynamics. They consider total rushing and passing yardage and scores and then distribute them between the most active starting players based on how the track record of the offense and the opposing defense along with variables like injuries, depth chart changes, venue, weather and so on.

 
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